For Waldo: Origins of Walsh Coast Offense - Virgil Carter

[pbmax]

Here is a tidbit from Chase Stuart (of profootballreference.com) in the New York Times' Fifth Down Blog that agrees with a previous post (or quote, don't remember) of yours that a change in Quarterback at Cincinnati was part of the gestation of what later became known as the West Coast Offense.


As an expansion team in 1968, the Bengals went 3-11, but the next season, the rookie quarterback extraordinaire Greg Cook led the Bengals to a 4-6-1 record. But the Bengals’ postseason dreams appeared to end before the season started: Cook was found to have a torn rotator cuff that would ultimately cost him the 1970 season and his career. Cook’s big arm helped him lead the A.F.L. in yards per completion in 1969; the backup Virgil Carter was accurate, but had a much weaker arm. That change in personnel led the assistant coach Bill Walsh to develop a more precise, horizontal passing attack for the Bengals, in what would ultimately become the West Coast offense. After Carter averaged just 3.7 adjusted yards per attempt in the Bengals’ first six losses, he averaged 7.0 AY/A the rest of the way as Cincinnati finished the season on a seven-game winning streak. The next season, Carter led the league in completion percentage. In addition to his pioneering role in the West Coast offense, Carter was one of the first prominent football sabermetricians, after he performed extensive data analysis on game logs from the 1969 season. He’ll also be remembered as the point man on the most unlikely playoff team in N.F.L. history.

[Fritz]

So if Greg Coook had stayed healthy, who knows what would've happened?

Wow. The Butterfly effect.

[KYPack]

So if Greg Coook had stayed healthy, who knows what would've happened?

Wow. The Butterfly effect.

Greg Cook / Walsh would have been scary.

But Ken Anderson beat Carter out soon enough. Kenny had a live arm and that mid 70's Bengal offense was the start of Walsh's reign of terror on NFL defensive co-ordinators.

[mraynrand]

Here is a tidbit from Chase Stuart (of profootballreference.com) in the New York Times' Fifth Down Blog that agrees with a previous post (or quote, don't remember) of yours that a change in Quarterback at Cincinnati was part of the gestation of what later became known as the West Coast Offense.


As an expansion team in 1968, the Bengals went 3-11, but the next season, the rookie quarterback extraordinaire Greg Cook led the Bengals to a 4-6-1 record. But the Bengals’ postseason dreams appeared to end before the season started: Cook was found to have a torn rotator cuff that would ultimately cost him the 1970 season and his career. Cook’s big arm helped him lead the A.F.L. in yards per completion in 1969; the backup Virgil Carter was accurate, but had a much weaker arm. That change in personnel led the assistant coach Bill Walsh to develop a more precise, horizontal passing attack for the Bengals, in what would ultimately become the West Coast offense. After Carter averaged just 3.7 adjusted yards per attempt in the Bengals’ first six losses, he averaged 7.0 AY/A the rest of the way as Cincinnati finished the season on a seven-game winning streak. The next season, Carter led the league in completion percentage. In addition to his pioneering role in the West Coast offense, Carter was one of the first prominent football sabermetricians, after he performed extensive data analysis on game logs from the 1969 season. He’ll also be remembered as the point man on the most unlikely playoff team in N.F.L. history.

sabermetricians: I Like that - Waldo should be our 'Sabermetrician Rat' (Patler is already Stat Rat)

Would be interesting to see what their running game was like in the 60s - since the west coast offense was also designed to have short passes be like an 'extended handoff' and can cover for a weaker run game.

[pbmax]

So if Greg Coook had stayed healthy, who knows what would've happened?

Wow. The Butterfly effect.

Greg Cook / Walsh would have been scary.

But Ken Anderson beat Carter out soon enough. Kenny had a live arm and that mid 70's Bengal offense was the start of Walsh's reign of terror on NFL defensive co-ordinators.
I don't think Cook was around for the inaugural season, but Walsh was. I think Bill had Cook for exactly one year.

[mngolf19]

It's usually credited to Paul Brown, who Walsh worked for. This is the first time I've heard it given to Walsh.

[Fritz]

I did some research a year or so ago, which I posted on this site. I found that the emphasis on the run game increased in the 70's, and that the passing game was more predominant in the 50's and 60's than I had thought. Some wise poster - Vince or PB or Ky, I think - pointed out that in the 70's defensive backs were basically allowed to mug the receivers, which meant the emphasis on the run was a natural outgrowth of that, and once the rules were changed to favor receivers, the passing game became more important.

And you can just flat out make more yards per pass than you can yards per run.

Yet the run is still seen as the basis for all offensive success and stopping the run is predicated as the basis for all defensive success. Interesting.

[swede]

And you can just flat out make more yards per pass than you can yards per run.

Yet the run is still seen as the basis for all offensive success and stopping the run is predicated as the basis for all defensive success. Interesting.

Death by a thousand cuts.

[bobblehead]

The reason I am so adamant that the running game is so important is because it sets up more favorable 2nd and 3rd downs. If you can't run the ball you end up staring at 3rd and long and that is no way to be successful. 3rd and 3 however...especially if you can run...sets up all sorts of headaches for your opponent.

[pbmax]

I did some research a year or so ago, which I posted on this site. I found that the emphasis on the run game increased in the 70's, and that the passing game was more predominant in the 50's and 60's than I had thought. Some wise poster - Vince or PB or Ky, I think - pointed out that in the 70's defensive backs were basically allowed to mug the receivers, which meant the emphasis on the run was a natural outgrowth of that, and once the rules were changed to favor receivers, the passing game became more important.

And you can just flat out make more yards per pass than you can yards per run.

Yet the run is still seen as the basis for all offensive success and stopping the run is predicated as the basis for all defensive success. Interesting.
Stopping the run makes sense for a defense. There is little to no risk (compared to passing) in the run game for an offense. If you can sustain drives with it, or even if you can simply get to 3rd and short and then pass, it puts the defense in a position where they must defend the entire field, long and short, middle and outside the numbers. Run and pass. All that while the offense is running very low risk plays. Forcing a team to pass in 2nd or 3rd and long limits the Offense's options, and makes them more predictable. Even standard alternatives to the pass (draw, screens) become more problematic.

As an offense then, the last thing you want to do is fail to get yards on any down*. And you want those yards anyway you can get them. What Walsh/Cincinnati/Brown discovered was that you could replace running on 1st and 2nd down with short, high percentage passes if you were accurate. There is also a discussion and an article on Smart Football about a letter or article that Walsh wrote, where he described intending to hint at those passes later in the game, or use them learn what precipitated a specific defensive reaction, and then actually run the ball later in the game against that predictable reaction, as they must now honor the chance it will be a pass. This is supposed to be the genesis of the 15 play script. Walsh was saying: Let's see how you intend to stop these 15 plays, then later we will line up the exact same way and do something different. Then I will take out your heart and show it too you.

The problem with coverage glorifying the run game was that the result trumped the method. People forgot to pay attention to when or why teams ran, they just looked at the running game totals, called upon their inner Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler and ran with it. Its still the less risky option and often the better plan. But the total is less important than the reasoning.

Everyone remembers the Green Bay sweep, fewer (and that number includes a few on this site who have pointed it out) remember that Bart Starr converted a lot of 3rd downs with play action toward the end of their run. Everyone remembers Rocky Bleier and Franco Harris and the bare-armed Steeler offensive line and its trap running game. No one remembers that the last two Steeler Super Bowl winning teams were very much passing teams.

As for Walsh and Brown and their offense, Walsh's wikipedia page hints at a falling out but I have never read the source material for the claims. Nor have I read a definitive account of how much was Walsh and how much was Brown. Brown's early pro passing game was decidedly downfield, but everyone did much the same thing. What he was running by 1968 is unknown to me. He might have handed over the project of converting the Brown offense for Virgil Carter (in place of Cook) to Walsh. Brown must have approved as they ran that offense with Ken Anderson after Walsh left. I think parts of it were still there when they went to the Super Bowl with Forrest Gregg.

* This part is what kills me about McCarthy and penalties. Certainly offensive penalties, but also special teams. He knows how to sustain success on a drive and in a game by field position and first downs. How he can stomach the penalties (esp. pre-snap which happened again vs. Seattle) is beyond me.

[bobblehead]

PB..you have my vote for poster I enjoy reading the most. I admire your opinions and knowledge of the game both past and present. If you ever leave PR I might stop reading here.

Before the season you did a thread on killing the run and shoot that taught me...well, mainly it taught me that I don't know as much about the game as I thought. Thanx for it all, and keep up the good work.

I will say that waldo had a thread where he analyzed TT's draft tendencies that I liked a lot too. That one gave insight into how TT takes a brad jones that everyone else overlooked and gets a solid starter in the 7th round. Honestly I almost never even go to media run packer sites anymore.

[mraynrand]

PB..you have my vote for poster I enjoy reading the most. I admire your opinions and knowledge of the game both past and present. If you ever leave PR I might stop reading here.

Before the season you did a thread on killing the run and shoot that taught me...well, mainly it taught me that I don't know as much about the game as I thought. Thanx for it all, and keep up the good work.

I will say that waldo had a thread where he analyzed TT's draft tendencies that I liked a lot too. That one gave insight into how TT takes a brad jones that everyone else overlooked and gets a solid starter in the 7th round. Honestly I almost never even go to media run packer sites anymore.

+1. I only read McGinn on JSO. Way to go , PBmax.

Where's Waldo?

[pbmax]

PB..you have my vote for poster I enjoy reading the most. I admire your opinions and knowledge of the game both past and present. If you ever leave PR I might stop reading here.

Before the season you did a thread on killing the run and shoot that taught me...well, mainly it taught me that I don't know as much about the game as I thought. Thanx for it all, and keep up the good work.

I will say that waldo had a thread where he analyzed TT's draft tendencies that I liked a lot too. That one gave insight into how TT takes a brad jones that everyone else overlooked and gets a solid starter in the 7th round. Honestly I almost never even go to media run packer sites anymore.
Thanks Bobble. Just remember that in that same thread about the zone blitz and the Run and Shoot, I made the error of attributing the invention of the Zone Blitz to Bob Davies. Never take my word for it. I have probably made two mistakes in this post already. :lol:

[bobblehead]

PB..you have my vote for poster I enjoy reading the most. I admire your opinions and knowledge of the game both past and present. If you ever leave PR I might stop reading here.

Before the season you did a thread on killing the run and shoot that taught me...well, mainly it taught me that I don't know as much about the game as I thought. Thanx for it all, and keep up the good work.

I will say that waldo had a thread where he analyzed TT's draft tendencies that I liked a lot too. That one gave insight into how TT takes a brad jones that everyone else overlooked and gets a solid starter in the 7th round. Honestly I almost never even go to media run packer sites anymore.
Thanks Bobble. Just remember that in that same thread about the zone blitz and the Run and Shoot, I made the error of attributing the invention of the Zone Blitz to Bob Davies. Never take my word for it. I have probably made two mistakes in this post already. :lol:

Mistakes are human, since you never mock anyone, you earn the right to be corrected and move on. Me, I gotta take my beating when I fuck up :P