SnakeLH2006
01-06-2010, 05:19 AM
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/05/cold-hard-fact-packers-rule-as-defensive-hogs/
Looking for an edge as you prepare to dive into your playoff office pools — or into the New York Times N.F.L. Playoff Challenge?
Kerry Byrne might be able to help. But he’ll freely admit that he was the last person to predict that he’d create a winning formula for playoff prognostication. He and his team at The Cold Hard Football Facts had produced what he called a defensive hog index, an attempt to measure which team had the best defensive front.
“I can honestly say that the success of the D.H.I. since we introduced it was a surprise to me,” he said in an e-mail message Monday. “In fact, a reader sent us a string of angry e-mails over the course of the past two seasons, railing at us for not noticing its success as an indicator.”
“Needless to say, we’ve shamelessly” promoted it since then, he said.
Here’s how Byrne described the index on his Web site:
It’s proven a huge indicator of success since we introduced it during the 2007 season: teams that are better in the DHI are 20-2 in the playoffs over that time, and the No. 1 team in DHI has won the Super Bowl each year (2007 Giants and 2008 Steelers).
This isn’t rocket science, folks. The Defensive Hog Index simply looks at at each team in three major, easy-to-understand categories and ranks them by average in these categories.
The top defensive front is that which posts the highest average rating across the board. The Defensive Hog Index is based upon these criteria:
YPA – Yards Per Attempt. So simple, even you can understand it. This rates a defense’s ability to stuff an opposing ground game.
NPP% – Negative Pass Plays, expressed as a percentage. This is how often an opponent’s pass plays end in either a sack or interception. Defenses that get after the quarterback and overwhelm the opposing offensive line naturally force sacks and INTs. These negative pass plays are calculated as a percentage of attempts. So if a team foces two sacks and two INTs in 40 pass plays, their NPP% will be 10 percent (4/40).
3down% - Opposition success rate on third down. The lower the percentage, the higher the defensive success.
The metric seems to make sense. Defense wins championships, right?
“I think any observer or analyst would agree that, if you do all those three things well in January, you’re going to have some success,” he said.
But I asked Kerrry how much of it was a fluke. It’s still a relatively small statistical sample.
“I would agree that its success probably is a bit fluky, a coincidence of timing,” he said. “I don’t think we’ll make all our picks based upon it this year.
“I think the 2007 Giants and the 2008 Steelers, both No. 1 in DHI and both champions, were classic examples of the importance of doing all three well. The 2007 Giants weren’t too hot in too many areas, other than the ability of their D Hogs to win the war in the trenches. That ability was on display for all the world to see in the Super Bowl win over New England, when Michael, Osi, Justin & the Gang played pigskin piñata with Tom Brady,” he said, referring to Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck.
“The 2008 Steelers, meanwhile, won the Super Bowl with a very bad offensive line (No. 28 in O.H.I.) and during a sub-standard year from Big Ben (17 TD, 15 INT, 80.1 passer rating). However, their defensive hogs dominated, No. 1 in all three components of the D.H.I.
“The Cardinals ran just 12 times for 33 yards and converted just 3 of 8 third downs (37%) in the Super Bowl. And don’t forget, it was a defensive hog, James Harrison, who made the biggest play of the game: his pick of Warner and 100-yard return for a touchdown.”
The leader in the defensive hog index this season is the Packers. I asked Kerry if he was willing to predict a Packers championship.
“I actually love Green Bay’s chances to at least reach the Super Bowl,” he said. “The No. 1 defensive hogs are obviously big. But they do a lot of things well. In particular, they’ve been dominating the passing battle. And teams that dominate the passing battle generally win. The Packers are second only to New Orleans in passer rating differential, and have come on strong in recent weeks while the Saints have come back to earth.
“This is our first year looking at passer rating differential and, as expected (I did not have the same expectation of DHI when it was created), it has had a huge correlation to success: 10 of the top 11 teams in PRD are in the playoffs. One of those playoff teams not among these 10 is the Jets. However, they’re No. 1 in defensive passer rating. So, obviously, success shutting down opposing passers has been critical to their success, even as Sanchez struggled.
“I wrote about Green Bay’s chances a couple weeks ago here (and here with our friends at SI).”
Extra point: In the last two postseasons, the defensive hog method of picking games was wrong once in 2007: Patriots over Chargers in the A.F.C. title game (San Diego had a narrow edge in D.H.I.). And once in 2008: Cardinals over Eagles in the N.F.C title game. “It’s interesting that it took two of the game’s best passers (Brady and Warner) to produce the only victories over the past two years against teams with better D.H.I.s,” Byrne said.
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Looking at cold ass NY media....it's hard to argue with the hogs......I find it hard to believe (our D takeaways/INTs are great, but hard to believe we are a SuperBowl D without a Reggie White or any elite pass rush, but the the Kool-Aid is good).
So there it is........some stats to go by with the playoffs. Snake toasted his pick-em/spread pools and won both last weekend. I predicted a HUGE blowout of the Pack over the Cards last weekend and have been right ALL year. I predict another blowout this weekend at Arizona. Pack again. Our D is good, but the O is as as good as any Pack team under Brett in the 90's. No matter what, we score 30+. Take that shit to the bank. I'd hate to be a fair-weather Cards fan. They are fucked. Anyone betting...put money on the Pack....that is easy cash in your pocket. You think anyone named the Snake doesn't know how to bet? Yep. Bet here....WE WHOOP 'em bad again....then again I picked the Pack in EVERY game in my pick-em league.....I still handily won it though. :roll:
Looking for an edge as you prepare to dive into your playoff office pools — or into the New York Times N.F.L. Playoff Challenge?
Kerry Byrne might be able to help. But he’ll freely admit that he was the last person to predict that he’d create a winning formula for playoff prognostication. He and his team at The Cold Hard Football Facts had produced what he called a defensive hog index, an attempt to measure which team had the best defensive front.
“I can honestly say that the success of the D.H.I. since we introduced it was a surprise to me,” he said in an e-mail message Monday. “In fact, a reader sent us a string of angry e-mails over the course of the past two seasons, railing at us for not noticing its success as an indicator.”
“Needless to say, we’ve shamelessly” promoted it since then, he said.
Here’s how Byrne described the index on his Web site:
It’s proven a huge indicator of success since we introduced it during the 2007 season: teams that are better in the DHI are 20-2 in the playoffs over that time, and the No. 1 team in DHI has won the Super Bowl each year (2007 Giants and 2008 Steelers).
This isn’t rocket science, folks. The Defensive Hog Index simply looks at at each team in three major, easy-to-understand categories and ranks them by average in these categories.
The top defensive front is that which posts the highest average rating across the board. The Defensive Hog Index is based upon these criteria:
YPA – Yards Per Attempt. So simple, even you can understand it. This rates a defense’s ability to stuff an opposing ground game.
NPP% – Negative Pass Plays, expressed as a percentage. This is how often an opponent’s pass plays end in either a sack or interception. Defenses that get after the quarterback and overwhelm the opposing offensive line naturally force sacks and INTs. These negative pass plays are calculated as a percentage of attempts. So if a team foces two sacks and two INTs in 40 pass plays, their NPP% will be 10 percent (4/40).
3down% - Opposition success rate on third down. The lower the percentage, the higher the defensive success.
The metric seems to make sense. Defense wins championships, right?
“I think any observer or analyst would agree that, if you do all those three things well in January, you’re going to have some success,” he said.
But I asked Kerrry how much of it was a fluke. It’s still a relatively small statistical sample.
“I would agree that its success probably is a bit fluky, a coincidence of timing,” he said. “I don’t think we’ll make all our picks based upon it this year.
“I think the 2007 Giants and the 2008 Steelers, both No. 1 in DHI and both champions, were classic examples of the importance of doing all three well. The 2007 Giants weren’t too hot in too many areas, other than the ability of their D Hogs to win the war in the trenches. That ability was on display for all the world to see in the Super Bowl win over New England, when Michael, Osi, Justin & the Gang played pigskin piñata with Tom Brady,” he said, referring to Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck.
“The 2008 Steelers, meanwhile, won the Super Bowl with a very bad offensive line (No. 28 in O.H.I.) and during a sub-standard year from Big Ben (17 TD, 15 INT, 80.1 passer rating). However, their defensive hogs dominated, No. 1 in all three components of the D.H.I.
“The Cardinals ran just 12 times for 33 yards and converted just 3 of 8 third downs (37%) in the Super Bowl. And don’t forget, it was a defensive hog, James Harrison, who made the biggest play of the game: his pick of Warner and 100-yard return for a touchdown.”
The leader in the defensive hog index this season is the Packers. I asked Kerry if he was willing to predict a Packers championship.
“I actually love Green Bay’s chances to at least reach the Super Bowl,” he said. “The No. 1 defensive hogs are obviously big. But they do a lot of things well. In particular, they’ve been dominating the passing battle. And teams that dominate the passing battle generally win. The Packers are second only to New Orleans in passer rating differential, and have come on strong in recent weeks while the Saints have come back to earth.
“This is our first year looking at passer rating differential and, as expected (I did not have the same expectation of DHI when it was created), it has had a huge correlation to success: 10 of the top 11 teams in PRD are in the playoffs. One of those playoff teams not among these 10 is the Jets. However, they’re No. 1 in defensive passer rating. So, obviously, success shutting down opposing passers has been critical to their success, even as Sanchez struggled.
“I wrote about Green Bay’s chances a couple weeks ago here (and here with our friends at SI).”
Extra point: In the last two postseasons, the defensive hog method of picking games was wrong once in 2007: Patriots over Chargers in the A.F.C. title game (San Diego had a narrow edge in D.H.I.). And once in 2008: Cardinals over Eagles in the N.F.C title game. “It’s interesting that it took two of the game’s best passers (Brady and Warner) to produce the only victories over the past two years against teams with better D.H.I.s,” Byrne said.
_________________________________________________
Looking at cold ass NY media....it's hard to argue with the hogs......I find it hard to believe (our D takeaways/INTs are great, but hard to believe we are a SuperBowl D without a Reggie White or any elite pass rush, but the the Kool-Aid is good).
So there it is........some stats to go by with the playoffs. Snake toasted his pick-em/spread pools and won both last weekend. I predicted a HUGE blowout of the Pack over the Cards last weekend and have been right ALL year. I predict another blowout this weekend at Arizona. Pack again. Our D is good, but the O is as as good as any Pack team under Brett in the 90's. No matter what, we score 30+. Take that shit to the bank. I'd hate to be a fair-weather Cards fan. They are fucked. Anyone betting...put money on the Pack....that is easy cash in your pocket. You think anyone named the Snake doesn't know how to bet? Yep. Bet here....WE WHOOP 'em bad again....then again I picked the Pack in EVERY game in my pick-em league.....I still handily won it though. :roll: