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KYPack
01-09-2010, 11:27 AM
But you'll basically have to take my word for it.

Football Outsiders comes up with a lot of snazzy data that I can't understand.

For instance, DVOA. I'd have to get Patler and Waldo to come over to my house and drink a case of beer with me before I'd really get what it means. At any rate I tried to copy the info over to post here, but I got the eye chart you see below. Or you can go over to their site and read the thing for yourself.

The punch line is something the lowliest poster already knew. We suck on ST. We are about the lowest ranked team in every measurable there is. We can't punt. We don't kick FG's well, not do we defend kicks worth shit. I thought we kept a raft of guys bc they were such special team aces. How come we are number UN?

Incidently, Detrot just shit canned their ST guy bc of similar performance. I'd think we'd do the same.

DVOA LASTYEAR WEIGHTED FG/XP KICK KICK RET PUNT PUNT RET HIDDEN WEATHER NON-ADJ DVOA DVOA RANK PTS RANK PTS RANK
1 CLE 8.8% 4 8.3% 1 4.8 10.3 23.2 2.1 11.2 6.0 5 -2.1 28 8.4%
2 PHI 4.3% 13 4.0% 3 3.6 9.1 -7.5 3.8 16.3 1.1 12 5.1 7 4.4%
3 MIN 4.2% 32 1.4% 14 7.7 -6.3 19.3 0.5 3.7 -4.4 23 1.3 16 5.1%
4 CHI 4.0% 5 2.4% 9 4.8 -1.6 13.6 1.8 5.1 -6.7 25 1.9 15 3.9%
5 TB 3.1% 19 5.2% 2 -11.2 6.8 9.4 1.6 11.8 -10.9 28 0.8 20 3.8%
6 NYJ 2.6% 8 1.7% 11 2.8 -2.3 7.6 2.2 5.0 3.1 8 6.1 4 2.2%
7 HOU 2.2% 17 0.9% 17 -12.1 5.5 5.4 10.3 4.0 2.7 9 8.0 2 2.4%
8 BAL 2.0% 16 3.6% 4 -4.7 9.8 9.5 -2.2 -0.6 9.6 3 -0.5 25 0.5%
9 MIA 1.8% 29 2.1% 10 7.0 -2.7 4.9 4.8 -3.4 -2.7 18 5.4 6 2.1%
10 STL 1.6% 18 3.5% 5 1.5 -2.3 -6.0 15.0 1.3 13.4 1 3.9 9 2.5%
11 ARI 1.6% 28 3.2% 6 4.6 -0.8 0.2 10.7 -5.2 -0.4 15 -2.3 29 2.6%
12 BUF 1.3% 1 2.9% 7 3.7 4.7 -0.7 5.9 -5.8 -13.8 30 1.1 17 1.4%
13 NE 1.2% 6 1.7% 12 0.5 7.7 -5.2 -6.0 10.1 0.6 13 0.5 22 1.7%
14 DAL 1.0% 27 0.6% 19 -10.7 10.7 -5.9 1.2 10.7 -16.2 32 -3.0 31 1.2%
15 SEA 0.9% 9 0.7% 18 2.4 11.8 -4.4 -0.8 -3.9 -5.2 24 11.6 1 1.0%
16 SD 0.4% 12 -0.1% 21 7.7 -6.1 0.0 1.4 -0.7 4.2 6 -2.6 30 0.9%
17 OAK -0.1% 2 1.0% 16 15.0 -6.9 -16.3 18.2 -10.4 9.7 2 2.8 14 1.3%
18 DEN -0.1% 31 2.4% 8 -1.1 9.8 -4.2 -9.6 4.2 -1.4 16 -8.5 32 1.8%
19 SF -0.6% 3 0.0% 20 1.9 2.6 -3.6 12.8 -17.5 -12.7 29 2.9 13 -1.1%
20 IND -0.6% 24 -0.7% 22 -2.1 1.5 -1.2 3.9 -5.8 7.3 4 4.9 8 -0.2%
21 CIN -0.9% 26 1.6% 13 -5.0 -3.8 -4.2 -3.3 11.0 -8.1 26 3.0 12 -1.3%
22 ATL -1.0% 7 -1.7% 25 -14.8 15.1 -0.4 -9.6 3.9 -8.7 27 3.1 11 -0.1%
23 WAS -1.3% 25 -2.1% 26 1.4 5.8 -8.3 0.8 -7.5 3.9 7 1.0 18 -1.5%
24 TEN -1.3% 15 1.3% 15 11.9 -6.7 -11.8 6.1 -7.1 -4.2 22 0.7 21 -1.2%
25 JAC -1.4% 21 -3.2% 28 -8.2 0.4 -5.3 6.0 -0.9 1.6 11 7.6 3 -0.8%
26 KC -1.5% 30 -4.5% 30 3.9 -3.9 -7.1 4.8 -6.7 -4.2 21 0.0 23 -1.4%
27 NYG -1.5% 11 -1.1% 23 -3.0 1.2 -10.0 -4.8 7.4 -16.1 31 -1.4 27 -1.6%
28 NO -2.8% 22 -2.2% 27 -9.2 1.2 7.0 -7.7 -7.8 -4.0 20 -0.1 24 -1.5%
29 CAR -2.9% 10 -1.6% 24 -1.1 -3.0 -6.3 -5.4 -1.5 -0.2 14 0.8 19 -2.4%
30 PIT -4.1% 23 -4.1% 29 2.3 -35.4 4.7 5.7 -1.3 2.6 10 3.3 10 -4.1%
31 DET -4.4% 14 -4.6% 31 -3.6 -9.0 -8.4 -2.4 -2.4 -3.9 19 5.9 5 -3.4%
32 GB -6.2% 20 -6.0% 32 -6.1 -8.3 -3.8 -16.2 -2.1 -2.5 17 -0.6 26 -6.3%

FO's chart is a lot neater because when you are negative, the numbers are red. The Pack's chart looks like the Red Sea.

Right now, if we don't fumble a kick, it's about all we can hope for.

We should basically go for it on all fourth downs.

KYPack
01-09-2010, 01:39 PM
What, ya gotta call somebody names to get any responses on here anymore?

OK.

Ty, Skin, you are both nice guys.

I know that's a total insult to you two lads.

Joemailman
01-09-2010, 01:50 PM
Things have improved a bit lately. My guess is MM gives Slocum another year to straighten things out. It's not like you have to be great on ST's to be a top team. Only 4 of the top ten ST units made the playoffs.

MJZiggy
01-09-2010, 02:18 PM
What, ya gotta call somebody names to get any responses on here anymore?

OK.

Ty, Skin, you are both nice guys.

I know that's a total insult to you two lads.

:lol: :lol:

Scott Campbell
01-09-2010, 02:20 PM
Things have improved a bit lately. My guess is MM gives Slocum another year to straighten things out. It's not like you have to be great on ST's to be a top team. Only 4 of the top ten ST units made the playoffs.


Coverage seems to have improved. But I'm not seeing improvement elsewhere. Were a mess.

SkinBasket
01-09-2010, 02:25 PM
I blame Atari Bigby for his complete lack of any kind of skill that might be of use on special teams. Well, him and Jarrett Bush, who contributes just as much to ST as a bologna sandwich despite being labeled a "special" teams ACE!!!

Scott Campbell
01-09-2010, 02:34 PM
I'm going to miss your Atari rants when he's gone.







10 years from now. :lol:

ThunderDan
01-09-2010, 02:37 PM
Boy this is a shocker!! I thought at worst we were middle of the pack!! :lol: :cry:

Joemailman
01-09-2010, 02:46 PM
I blame Atari Bigby for his complete lack of any kind of skill that might be of use on special teams.

You don't use a future Hall Of Fame SS on special teams.

sheepshead
01-09-2010, 02:51 PM
Imagine ARods numbers if we get this and penalties fixed for 16 games???!!!???

8-)

Smidgeon
01-09-2010, 04:02 PM
I blame Atari Bigby for his complete lack of any kind of skill that might be of use on special teams. Well, him and Jarrett Bush, who contributes just as much to ST as a bologna sandwich despite being labeled a "special" teams ACE!!!

I'll actually take Bush when he's a gunner blocker on coverage. I don't remember what game it was, but he completely took the opposing team's gunner out of the play. Wrestled him out of bounds then threw him to the ground or something like that. It was pretty cool to see. Not sure I like Bush anywhere else, but I'll keep him there.

SkinBasket
01-09-2010, 04:37 PM
I blame Atari Bigby for his complete lack of any kind of skill that might be of use on special teams. Well, him and Jarrett Bush, who contributes just as much to ST as a bologna sandwich despite being labeled a "special" teams ACE!!!

I'll actually take Bush when he's a gunner blocker on coverage. I don't remember what game it was, but he completely took the opposing team's gunner out of the play. Wrestled him out of bounds then threw him to the ground or something like that. It was pretty cool to see. Not sure I like Bush anywhere else, but I'll keep him there.

I remember that I think. It would be nice if it happened more than once though. And don't get me started on his "gunner" abilities. Barf.

Packers4Ever
01-09-2010, 04:39 PM
Things have improved a bit lately. My guess is MM gives Slocum another year to straighten things out. It's not like you have to be great on ST's to be a top team. Only 4 of the top ten ST units made the playoffs.


He wouldn't get a year in my book, maybe Pre Season and 1/4
regular season. If he ain't got it by then, he can move on. Is
ST coach hard to replace or something?
A whole year? That could be missing a whole lot of chances, what a
great guy you are, Joe ! :wink:
OK, maybe 8 games.

Smidgeon
01-09-2010, 04:45 PM
I blame Atari Bigby for his complete lack of any kind of skill that might be of use on special teams. Well, him and Jarrett Bush, who contributes just as much to ST as a bologna sandwich despite being labeled a "special" teams ACE!!!

I'll actually take Bush when he's a gunner blocker on coverage. I don't remember what game it was, but he completely took the opposing team's gunner out of the play. Wrestled him out of bounds then threw him to the ground or something like that. It was pretty cool to see. Not sure I like Bush anywhere else, but I'll keep him there.

I remember that I think. It would be nice if it happened more than once though. And don't get me started on his "gunner" abilities. Barf.

It might happen more often as it is. How often do you see replays of the gunners being blocked?

I do have an unrelated question: what was the last game where ST had a penalty on a return? It seems like that's gotten cleaner.

pbmax
01-09-2010, 04:47 PM
For instance, DVOA. I'd have to get Patler and Waldo to come over to my house and drink a case of beer with me before I'd really get what it means.
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

In the case of special teams, they measure each play and compare all other plays like in it the league (all other kickoff coverages, all other punt returns) and determine the average outcome of the play. Your Value Over Average (VOA) is the percentage better or worse of your play than the average play for the rest of the league. If you are better, you get a positive percentage (30% punt return VOA means instead of the league average 10 yards per return, you are getting 13). If you are worse, then its a negative percentage.

DVOA, takes your Value Over Average and adjusts for your opponent. So a huge offensive game against the Lions won't make you look like world-beaters compared to someone who just played the Ravens.

pbmax
01-09-2010, 05:22 PM
....TEAM....ST....LAST....WEIGHTED......FG/XP....KICK....KIC....PUNT.....PUNT.....HIDDEN..... ....WEATHER......NON-ADJ VOA
...........DVOA....YEAR...DVOA....RNK............. .......RET.............RET......PTS....RNK.....PTS ....RNK
01....CLE....8.8%....4....8.3%....1.....4.8.....10 .3.....23.2.....2.1....11.2.....6.0....5......-2.1....28.....8.4%
02....PHI....4.3%....13...4.0%....3.....3.6......9 .1.....-7.5.....3.8....16.3.....1.1....12......5.1....7... ...4.4%
03....MIN....4.2%....32...1.4%....14....7.7.....-6.3.....19.3.....0.5.....3.7....-4.4....23......1.3....16.....5.1%
04....CHI....4.0%....5....2.4%....9.....4.8.....-1.6.....13.6.....1.8.....5.1....-6.7....25......1.9....15.....3.9%
05....TB.....3.1%....19...5.2%....2....-11.2.....6.8......9.4.....1.6....11.8...-10.9....28......0.8....20.....3.8%
06....NYJ....2.6%....8....1.7%....11.....2.8....-2.3......7.6.....2.2.....5.0.....3.1....8.......6. 1....4......2.2%
07....HOU....2.2%....17...0.9%....17...-12.1.....5.5......5.4....10.3.....4.0.....2.7....9 .......8.0....2......2.4%
08....BAL....2.0%....16...3.6%....4.....-4.7.....9.8......9.5....-2.2....-0.6.....9.6....3......-0.5....25.....0.5%
09....MIA....1.8%....29...2.1%....10.....7.0....-2.7......4.9.....4.8....-3.4....-2.7....18......5.4....6......2.1%
10....STL....1.6%....18...3.5%....5......1.5....-2.3.....-6.0....15.0.....1.3....13.4....1.......3.9....9... ...2.5%
11....ARI....1.6%....28...3.2%....6......4.6....-0.8......0.2....10.7....-5.2....-0.4....15.....-2.3....29.....2.6%
12....BUF....1.3%....1....2.9%....7......3.7.....4 .7.....-0.7.....5.9....-5.8...-13.8....30......1.1....17.....1.4%
13....NE.....1.2%....6....1.7%....12.....0.5.....7 .7.....-5.2....-6.0....10.1.....0.6....13......0.5....22.....1.7%
14....DAL....1.0%....27...0.6%....19...-10.7....10.7.....-5.9.....1.2....10.7...-16.2....32.....-3.0....31.....1.2%
15....SEA....0.9%....9....0.7%....18.....2.4....11 .8.....-4.4....-0.8....-3.9....-5.2....24.....11.6....1......1.0%
16....SD.....0.4%....12..-0.1%....21.....7.7....-6.1......0.0.....1.4....-0.7.....4.2....6......-2.6....30.....0.9%
17....OAK...-0.1%....2....1.0%....16....15.0....-6.9....-16.3....18.2...-10.4.....9.7....2.......2.8....14.....1.3%
18....DEN...-0.1%....31...2.4%....8.....-1.1.....9.8.....-4.2....-9.6.....4.2....-1.4....16.....-8.5....32.....1.8%
19....SF....-0.6%....3....0.0%....20.....1.9.....2.6.....-3.6....12.8...-17.5...-12.7....29......2.9....13....-1.1%
20....IND...-0.6%....24..-0.7%....22....-2.1.....1.5.....-1.2.....3.9....-5.8.....7.3....4.......4.9....8.....-0.2%
21....CIN...-0.9%....26...1.6%....13....-5.0....-3.8.....-4.2....-3.3....11.0....-8.1....26......3.0....12....-1.3%
22....ATL...-1.0%....7...-1.7%....25...-14.8....15.1.....-0.4....-9.6.....3.9....-8.7....27......3.1....11....-0.1%
23....WAS...-1.3%....25..-2.1%....26.....1.4.....5.8.....-8.3.....0.8....-7.5.....3.9....7.......1.0....18....-1.5%
24....TEN...-1.3%....15...1.3%....15....11.9....-6.7....-11.8.....6.1....-7.1....-4.2....22......0.7....21....-1.2%
25....JAC...-1.4%....21..-3.2%....28....-8.2.....0.4.....-5.3.....6.0....-0.9.....1.6....11......7.6....3.....-0.8%
26....KC....-1.5%....30..-4.5%....30.....3.9....-3.9.....-7.1.....4.8....-6.7....-4.2....21......0.0....23....-1.4%
27....NYG...-1.5%....11..-1.1%....23....-3.0.....1.2....-10.0....-4.8.....7.4...-16.1....31.....-1.4....27....-1.6%
28....NO....-2.8%....22..-2.2%....27....-9.2.....1.2......7.0....-7.7....-7.8....-4.0....20.....-0.1....24....-1.5%
29....CAR...-2.9%....10..-1.6%....24....-1.1....-3.0.....-6.3....-5.4....-1.5....-0.2....14......0.8....19....-2.4%
30....PIT...-4.1%....23..-4.1%....29.....2.3....-35.4.....4.7.....5.7....-1.3.....2.6....10......3.3....10....-4.1%
31....DET...-4.4%....14..-4.6%....31....-3.6....-9.0.....-8.4....-2.4....-2.4....-3.9....19......5.9....5.....-3.4%
32....GB....-6.2%....20..-6.0%....32....-6.1....-8.3.....-3.8...-16.2....-2.1....-2.5....17.....-0.6....26....-6.3%

KYPack
01-09-2010, 08:30 PM
OK PB.

I should have specified you had to come along also.

Guess I'd have to get two cases.

One thing that struck me was the fact that we could be so bad on ST and it really didn't hurt us that much. I really think only in the Tampa loss was ST's failure a big factor & then it was only a part of the total picture. The Tampa debacle might have turned our season around. I just saw a Rodgers interview where he talked about the "creamsicle disaster" really helped the boys realize they had to work harder and better & get it together.

Long have I heard that it's 3 teams. O, D, & ST. Maybe ST is only a slight factor.

But, wadda I know?

I can't even understand DVOA.

SkinBasket
01-09-2010, 09:09 PM
I blame Atari Bigby for his complete lack of any kind of skill that might be of use on special teams. Well, him and Jarrett Bush, who contributes just as much to ST as a bologna sandwich despite being labeled a "special" teams ACE!!!

I'll actually take Bush when he's a gunner blocker on coverage. I don't remember what game it was, but he completely took the opposing team's gunner out of the play. Wrestled him out of bounds then threw him to the ground or something like that. It was pretty cool to see. Not sure I like Bush anywhere else, but I'll keep him there.

I remember that I think. It would be nice if it happened more than once though. And don't get me started on his "gunner" abilities. Barf.

It might happen more often as it is. How often do you see replays of the gunners being blocked?

I do have an unrelated question: what was the last game where ST had a penalty on a return? It seems like that's gotten cleaner.

I know I see Bush being totally and completely neutralized on most ST plays. When he does manage to get downfield he has a nasty habit of running 10 yards deeper than the returner. Maybe that's his job on ST though, and without him filling that role, no matter how bad he is individually, our ST wouldn't be nearly as good as it is...

KYPack
01-09-2010, 09:56 PM
I blame Atari Bigby for his complete lack of any kind of skill that might be of use on special teams. Well, him and Jarrett Bush, who contributes just as much to ST as a bologna sandwich despite being labeled a "special" teams ACE!!!

I'll actually take Bush when he's a gunner blocker on coverage. I don't remember what game it was, but he completely took the opposing team's gunner out of the play. Wrestled him out of bounds then threw him to the ground or something like that. It was pretty cool to see. Not sure I like Bush anywhere else, but I'll keep him there.

I remember that I think. It would be nice if it happened more than once though. And don't get me started on his "gunner" abilities. Barf.

It might happen more often as it is. How often do you see replays of the gunners being blocked?

I do have an unrelated question: what was the last game where ST had a penalty on a return? It seems like that's gotten cleaner.

I know I see Bush being totally and completely neutralized on most ST plays. When he does manage to get downfield he has a nasty habit of running 10 yards deeper than the returner. Maybe that's his job on ST though, and without him filling that role, no matter how bad he is individually, our ST wouldn't be nearly as good as it is...

Yeah, Skin.

Bush is a helluva an athlete, but shit, he makes enuff mental errors to float a boat. That is the big glaring weakness on our ST, IMHO. We don't have a bull goose. Tracy White was that kind of guy and there is a huge void since his departure.

There a few guys that could fill that role. Bishop, Bush and some others could be the guy to get our guys lined up and fired up, but nobody steps up to the role. To me, that is a function of coaching. Yoiu don't give Slocum a chance until just before the first league game next season, you make a change. A change needs to be made.

Rather than hire a Bobby April guy, find the next Bobby April and give him a shot. We've got the athletes to have great ST units, we need some leadership at the coaching level. Slocum hasn't hacked the program. Get a guy in place who can get it going.

Fritz
01-10-2010, 09:55 AM
The thing about their apparent second half improvement is that it hasn't been as drastic as that of the offensive line or defense. The second half of the season they were....mostly okay. Sort of.

This is the big difficulty for any boss. You see some improvement, but performance is still not where it ought to be. Do you hang on to the guy and risk that the ST will suck next year and then do that thing coaches hate - change a position coach mid-stream? Or do you cut your losses after the season and risk that Slocum will come into his own elsewhere?

It would be a tough call. I suppose MM knows Slocum much better than we do and I hope MM's evaluative skills regarding his coaches have improves.

Fred's Slacks
01-10-2010, 02:11 PM
Rather than hire a Bobby April guy, find the next Bobby April and give him a shot. We've got the athletes to have great ST units, we need some leadership at the coaching level. Slocum hasn't hacked the program. Get a guy in place who can get it going.

Why not just hire April? I thought I saw he's available.