DRAFT QUESTION: Are SEC (Florida) Players Over-rated?

[Maxie the Taxi]

I think there are some mighty good players coming out of the SEC and Florida in this year's NFL draft. The question is: Are they as good as the media says they are?

Here are some examples:

FLORIDA: Joe Hayden CB; Carlos Dunlap DE; Riley Cooper WR; Major Wright FS; Brandon James RB; Brandon Spikes ILB; Maurkice Pouncy C; Jermaine Cunningham DE; Aaron Hernandez TE; and, yes, Tim Tebow QB.

ALABAMA: Kareem Jackson CB; Javier Arenas CB; Rolando McClain ILB; Justin Woodall SS

TENNESSEE: Eric Berry FS; Rico McCoy OLB; Dan Williams DT

LSU: Ciron Black OL; Chad Jones S; Brandon LaFell WR

MISSISSIPPI STATE: Anthony Dixon RB

OLE MISS: Jevon Snead QB

SOUTH CAROLINA: Eric Norwood OLB


These are all good players, but are they as good as advertised. The Florida players especially come into the draft with tons of media hype.

On one side people argue that these players are products of the Florida-Urban Meyer (for example) "system." That they get way to much favorable SEC press. That they're really just big, fast, lazy and dumb -- or hoodlums. That the overall talent on a team like Florida makes mediocre players look great.

On the other side people argue that these players ARE the cream of the crop because the SEC (esp. Florida) is able to recruit who they want. That the players are great just because the competition is outstanding, both individually and conference-wise. That these teams and players consistently do well against non-SEC teams.

Which is it?

Of course, talent has to be judged on an individual basis and the guys above are all well known. But the question is what about the lesser known players? Do you give them the benefit of the doubt because they're coming out of the SEC, or even the ACC?

I, for one, think there is a lot of great players coming out of Florida into the draft this year. I wouldn't mind having any of them, even Tebow, but as a runner, not a QB.

I'd really like to see the Packers draft Pouncy or Dunlap, for instance. I think Javier Arenas would make an excellent FS for the Packers, plus be a fabulous kick and punt returner. Also, I think Rolando McClain and Eric Berry are as good or better than advertized. These five guys could be instant/long term starters and/or difference makers.

Am I wrong?

How good, really, is the SEC and Florida?

[mission]

I think in general they are. Forget about a bowl game here or there, or some examples of busts...

The SEC is for real. Top notch.

[Lurker64]

I think on average, SEC players tend to be overrated. They have access to such great recruiting locally, that they simply recruit better athletes than a lot of conferences.

The problem, from the draft perspective, is that in a side of 11 guys you can have 4 guys who are legitimately good football players and are stud athletes, and 7 guys who are either stud athletes or legitimately good football players (not both) and do very well. So you get this defense (for example) that, as a unit, plays very well... but the play of the other 7 guys is invariably elevated by the 4 guys who are legitimately elite.

Like, looking at the Florida defense for a second all three of Dunlap, Spikes, and Wright are overrated. Not to say that they're bad football players, but the hype would have them going a lot higher than their individual talent/performance would suggest.

But that's why we have things like the combine and the senior bowl.

[Maxie the Taxi]

I think on average, SEC players tend to be overrated. They have access to such great recruiting locally, that they simply recruit better athletes than a lot of conferences.

The problem, from the draft perspective, is that in a side of 11 guys you can have 4 guys who are legitimately good football players and are stud athletes, and 7 guys who are either stud athletes or legitimately good football players (not both) and do very well. So you get this defense (for example) that, as a unit, plays very well... but the play of the other 7 guys is invariably elevated by the 4 guys who are legitimately elite.

Like, looking at the Florida defense for a second all three of Dunlap, Spikes, and Wright are overrated. Not to say that they're bad football players, but the hype would have them going a lot higher than their individual talent/performance would suggest.

But that's why we have things like the combine and the senior bowl.

I put more weight on "field" tests like the Senior Bowl than the combine. I put a lot of weight on "football" instinct rather than "measurables." Taylor Mays is one guy, I think, who will do well in the combine, but isn't worth a crap on the field. I've read where he's been described as a Roy Williams clone...all "hat" and "no cattle."

But what about Spikes, for instance? He's a beast when you see him play. Dunlap has been described as lazy and not in love with the game.

On the other hand, what about Pouncy? I think he and his brother are better right now than half the Packer linemen. I don't think it's hype with them.

I guess that's why they have scouts who know their stuff and not just casual observers like me. :)

[red]

you also have to take into account that these guys are all playing with good players all around them

that makes you look better

i tend to think of the sec as a seep conference, where the big ten is a slower fat guy conference

maybe when the speed guys get to the pros, where everyone has speed, they don't seem to stand out so much

[Lurker64]

I put more weight on "field" tests like the Senior Bowl than the combine. I put a lot of weight on "football" instinct rather than "measurables." Taylor Mays is one guy, I think, who will do well in the combine, but isn't worth a crap on the field. I've read where he's been described as a Roy Williams clone...all "hat" and "no cattle."


Well, what the combine tells you is not "who is going to be a good football player." What it really tells you is "who is really unlikely to be a good football player."

So if you're looking at a LB who played on a good defense, and put up really good numbers, and you get him to the combine and you get that he's smaller than you expected, not very fast either in a straight line or laterally, doesn't have good explosion, and isn't particularly fast you might downgrade that guy quite a bit.

It's like what happened to Everette Brown last year. Guy had good production in college in terms of rushing the passer, and was pegged as a likely top 10 pick because pass rushers are so valuable. He gets to the combine, and it turns out that he's just not particularly strong or explosive (things that pass rushers need). So you wonder "how did he put up such great numbers" and you look more closely and you realize that he was streaky, putting up great numbers against some teams and getting shut out against others, which suggests that he could dominate weak talent but not strong talent. So suddenly, he's a second round pick instead of a top 10 one.

The other side of the coin is that the combine can suggest when a guy who didn't have too much production in college (oftentimes because of lack of playing time), might excel in the right situation if he's given appropriate tutelage. For example, Clay Matthews's Vertical leap of 35 1/2 inches and his 10 yard split of 1.49 seconds, suggests that this guy has elite explosiveness off the snap, which is good.

But the most important thing about the combine is the interviews and the medical examinations. It's more useful as a tool to downgrade guys than to upgrade them.

[Packgator]

The question is: Are they as good as the media says they are?

How good, really, is the SEC and Florida?

National Champs

2006: Florida
2007: LSU
2008: Florida
2009: Alabama

Someone did a breakdown of projected NFL starters heading into the 2008 season.

SEC..............137
ACC..............121
Big Ten.........105
Big 12.............72
Pac 10............70
Big East..........33

It also breaks it down by position. A pretty interesting article......

http://www.houmatoday.com/article/20080706/OPINION01/617509449/1103/sports&title=What_conferences_are_the_NFL_s_starters_comi ng_from_

[ThunderDan]

The question is: Are they as good as the media says they are?

How good, really, is the SEC and Florida?

National Champs

2006: Florida
2007: LSU
2008: Florida
2009: Alabama

Someone did a breakdown of projected NFL starters heading into the 2008 season.

SEC..............137
ACC..............121
Big Ten.........105
Big 12.............72
Pac 10............70
Big East..........33

It also breaks it down by position. A pretty interesting article......

http://www.houmatoday.com/article/20080706/OPINION01/617509449/1103/sports&title=What_conferences_are_the_NFL_s_starters_comi ng_from_

Not knocking the National Titles, but the SEC should have 9% more players than the Big Ten alone because they have 12 teams in the league vs. 11 teams. Still there is a 24% difference and subtracting the 9% you get 15% more equalized players from the SEC than Big Ten.

The 15% is definitely significant.

[Packgator]

2009 NFL Draft breakdown......

SEC.............37
ACC............33
Pac 10........32
Big 10.........28
Big 12.........28

The entire breakdown at the following link.......

http://www.collegegameballs.com/2009/04/27/2009-nfl-draft-conference-breakdown/

[Maxie the Taxi]

It WAS a very interesting article, Packgator.

I'm a transplanted Wisconsinite. Been in Florida about 7 years. I'm Big Ten all the way and argue with the natives down here quite a bit. I know it's wishful thinking though. They live football down here. Florida is the next thing to the NFL.

As good as college ball is now, it would be interesting to revive the college all-star game. It'd be fun and it sure would beat the Senior Bowl as far as evaluating players.

[Maxie the Taxi]

Lurker, I hear ya.

It's going to be interesting what happens at the combine with Arenas. The guy is a football player, very exciting with potential I think to be a starting DB. We'll see what the combine says about him.

[CaliforniaCheez]

1) They are over rated.

2) Back when wonderlic scores were released they did not fare well.

3) The SEC does not play fundamentally sound football.

4) The SEC seems to have more discipline problems among players.

5) The SEC just doen't seem to run 2 minute offenses very well and other areas where disciplined football is required. Players forget to get to the sideline to stop the clock for example. Downing a ball on the 2 yard line because the player doesn't realize he is not in the endzone when receiving a punt.

6) They do not seem to have as many seniors playing as say the Big Ten. SEC players seem to leave the NCAA sooner than other conferences.

Mostly because of #5 I find SEC football irritating.

[Lurker64]

I really find SEC football irritating because of the SEC partisans. Certainly, the top of the SEC regularly includes some of the finest programs in all of college football. But if you ask some fans of the conference, they're better than every other conference top to bottom, when in reality the bottom of the SEC is pretty comparable to the bottom of most every other conference. Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Arkansas wouldn't exactly dominate every other conference if they switched affiliation.

[Maxie the Taxi]

I really find SEC football irritating because of the SEC partisans. Certainly, the top of the SEC regularly includes some of the finest programs in all of college football. But if you ask some fans of the conference, they're better than every other conference top to bottom, when in reality the bottom of the SEC is pretty comparable to the bottom of most every other conference. Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Arkansas wouldn't exactly dominate every other conference if they switched affiliation.

I completely agree. The fans are obnoxious. Worst case is when you run into a Gator fan who also roots for the Dallas Cowgirls. "Humble" is not in their dictionary.

But they are rabid. The joke about it is that I never saw so many fans of college football that barely graduated high school! You haven't seen it all until you've seen two redneck construction laborers trading insults over who's best, Florida or Florida State!

[pbmax]

1) They are over rated.

2) Back when wonderlic scores were released they did not fare well.

3) The SEC does not play fundamentally sound football.

4) The SEC seems to have more discipline problems among players.

5) The SEC just doen't seem to run 2 minute offenses very well and other areas where disciplined football is required. Players forget to get to the sideline to stop the clock for example. Downing a ball on the 2 yard line because the player doesn't realize he is not in the endzone when receiving a punt.

6) They do not seem to have as many seniors playing as say the Big Ten. SEC players seem to leave the NCAA sooner than other conferences.

Mostly because of #5 I find SEC football irritating.

Cheez, those are tremendous over generalizations. Care to provide some specifics? And I don't think you need to watch SEC football to see a college team blow a two minute drill, just watch the Badgers.

As for leaving early, that is entirely possible given Packgator's numbers but it doesn't look like a huge number. Leaving early would seem to argue that they are football players more than scholars, and the thread is about whether they can play football to match their rep, not score on the Wonderlic.

[packrulz]

I don't like drafting Florida players because of Terrell Buckley and Jamal Reynolds, both high first round busts, but they do churn out some good players. I think Tebow would be drafted higher if he would be open to playing any position, not just QB, I think he'll make a roster and be fun to watch. I think the SEC is better than the Big Ten simply because the better players want to play there, nicer weather, hotter chicks, better coaches and facilities. Brett Favre and Reggie White were from the SEC. The Big Ten surprised me though for how many NFL players it cranks out.

[red]

I don't like drafting Florida players because of Terrell Buckley and Jamal Reynolds, both high first round busts, but they do churn out some good players. I think Tebow would be drafted higher if he would be open to playing any position, not just QB, I think he'll make a roster and be fun to watch. I think the SEC is better than the Big Ten simply because the better players want to play there, nicer weather, hotter chicks, better coaches and facilities. Brett Favre and Reggie White were from the SEC. The Big Ten surprised me though for how many NFL players it cranks out.

both were from florida state

[Maxie the Taxi]

I don't like drafting Florida players because of Terrell Buckley and Jamal Reynolds, both high first round busts, but they do churn out some good players. I think Tebow would be drafted higher if he would be open to playing any position, not just QB, I think he'll make a roster and be fun to watch. I think the SEC is better than the Big Ten simply because the better players want to play there, nicer weather, hotter chicks, better coaches and facilities. Brett Favre and Reggie White were from the SEC. The Big Ten surprised me though for how many NFL players it cranks out.

Actually Favre played at Southern Miss, Conference USA now. I think you're right about the recruiting advantage though. I'm surprised when guys from Florida go to the Big Ten. I think it's because they're not good enough to stay down here, unless they've got family ties or something up North. I've never seen the facilities at Florida, but I imagine they're First Class Grade A. They're not shy about spending for the best, which may be another reason why they get the best players. Probably a lot of barely legal payments going on. As for the women, well... :D :D