Mission Impossible: Sign Nick Collins

[pbmax]

You have replaced Ted Thompson as Packer GM. You must sign Nick Collins or face an angry parade of emails from Packer fans, some of whom will question your intelligence, sexuality and/or parentage.

Earlier in the week, a scruffy, ballcap wearing reckless driver reported to be 6' 2", 225 Lbs and answering to aliases such as The Kid, Gunslinger and Hamlet ran Thompson over at 1970 S. Oneida Street (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=lambeau+field,+wi&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=40.817312,79.013672&ie=UTF8&hq=lambeau+field,&hnear=Wisconsin&ll=44.499475,-88.058038&spn=0,359.945068&t=h&z=15&layer=c&cbll=44.499442,-88.058305&panoid=Xkkbv-X2fu0Yqu4iRzValg&cbp=12,297.36,,0,5) in Green Bay Wisconsin. The incident occurred on the 5 year anniversary of Thompson's selection of Aaron Rodgers with the 24th pick in the first round of the 2005 NFL draft.

The perpetrator, who was still at large at the time this message board went to press, is believed to be somewhere in Clark County, hunting deer despite being out of season. Police have have setup interview traps on all major highways and truck stops, with volunteer help from Ed Werder, Rachel Nicholls, Michael Silver, Peter King, John Madden, Chris Mortenson and Greta Van Susteren. Sony HandyCams have been distributed to members of the public to help lure him out of hiding. The driver was seated in a John Deere 1470D Tractor/Harvester (http://www.deere.com/en_US/cfd/forestry/deere_forestry/harvesters/wheel/1470d_flash.html). A note was attached to the windshield asking anyone who found the tractor to return it to Hattiesburg, Mississippi.

Thompson was leaving work around 6 PM in his sensibly priced 1988 Chevrolet Celebrity and did not appear to see the green and yellow tractor approaching at the stoplight. Despite the heroic efforts of most of the emergency responders (several were reported to have yelled "What did you think was going to happen when you let Anthony Smith leave?" while others questioned the wisdom of drafting Justin Harrell "You never draft a player who has had two injuries in college! Everyone knows that rule!") Thompson was declared dead on arrival at St. Vincent's Hospital. Thomspon's last words were reported by staff to be "I did give some thought to Mooch..." but Jay Glazer is reporting from prison that Thompson actually said "Al agreed to take a 4th for Moss but sometimes things happen ...."

OK, so now you have the background for your ascension to the GM throne. How much are you going to pay Nick Collins and for how long? We'll have some numbers to help you figure this out shortly.

[pbmax]

PFT offers these salary cap numbers for the top 5 safeties:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/02/20/calculating-the-2010-franchise-tenders/

At safety, the average of $6.455 million arises from the average salaries paid to Cardinals safety Adrian Wilson ($7.039 million), Steelers safety Troy Polamalu ($6.495 million), Ravens safety Ed Reed ($6.4 million), Rams safety Oshiomogho Atogwe ($6.342 million), and Titans safety Chris Hope ($6 million).

[Freak Out]

The driver was seated in a John Deere 1470D Tractor/Harvester (http://www.deere.com/en_US/cfd/forestry/deere_forestry/harvesters/wheel/1470d_flash.html)

Ouch.

[Joemailman]

5 years, 40 million. 20 million guaranteed.

[gbgary]

You have replaced Ted Thompson as Packer GM. You must sign Nick Collins or face...

lol funny set-up.

[pbmax]

Adrian Wilson's Contract:

6/4/2009: Signed a five-year, $36.5 million contract. The deal contains $15.5 million guaranteed, including a $1 million signing bonus and Wilson's base salaries in years one and two. Another $2.5 million is available through incentives. $250,000 workout bonuses are available in years two through five. 2009: $5.5 million (+ $3 million "signing" bonus), 2010: $6.5 million, 2011: $3 million (+ $3 million roster bonus), 2012: $6.5 million, 2013: $7.5 million, 2014: Free Agent

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_contract.aspx?sport=NFL&id=2074

[pbmax]

Contract Information for Troy Polamalu

7/23/2007: Signed a five-year, $33 million contract. The deal contains $15.375 million guaranteed, including a $10.975 million signing bonus. 2009: $2.9 million, 2010: $6.1 million, 2011: $6.4 million, 2012: Free Agent

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_contract.aspx?sport=NFL&id=681

[b bulldog]

One might ask, what is 36 worth? Had a horriffic game in Arizona. He is not a top 3 safety imo.

[gbgary]

One might ask, what is 36 worth? Had a horriffic game in Arizona. He is not a top 3 safety imo.

as did the whole defense. do you have a replacement in mind if he's low-balled and bolts?

[pbmax]

Contract Information for Ed Reed

6/27/2006: Signed a six-year, $44.4 million contract extension through 2012. The deal contains $15 million guaranteed, including a $7.5 million signing bonus and option bonuses of $6 million and $1.5 million in the second and third years. 2009: $3.6 million, 2010: $6 million, 2011: $6.5 million, 2012: $7.2 million, 2013: Free Agent

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_contract.aspx?sport=NFL&id=2222

[red]

LOL

awesome setup

[pbmax]

Contract Information for O.J. Atogwe-DB- Rams

The Rams are unlikely to use the franchise tag on FS O.J. Atogwe or any other player in 2010.

Atogwe was tagged in 2009 and made $6.34 million, but since he doesn't have six years of experience, he'll only be a restricted free agent, allowing the Rams to keep him without tagging him. St. Louis will likely tender Atogwe at a first- and third-round pick and pay him $6.974 million in 2010.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=NFL&id=3283

[pbmax]

Contract Information for Chris Hope

3/15/2006: Signed a six-year, $30 million contract. The deal contains $10 million guaranteed, including a $5 million roster bonus in the second year. 2009: $4 million, 2010: $5.5 million, 2011: $6.5 million, 2012: Free Agent

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_contract.aspx?sport=NFL&id=648

[b bulldog]

Won't be able to leave for two years if things go the way they are currently headed

[red]

this is a though one

IMO he's not in the same class as a ed reed, but he's not a guy i would want to lose either

the massive years he had two years ago and the good year he had last year combined with the pro bowls, probably mean he's going to be paid as one of the top safeties in the league

is he an elite safety? no

but he isn't too far back

i think this might be one of those times where we might have to pay a little bit more then he is really worth just because if we don't someone else will

and we really can't afford to lose him

[pbmax]

I searched in vain for the top 10 players in salary (the contracts that make up the transition tag) so from here on out, we will need to apply our own reasoning for comparisons to Collins. If anyone finds the players who make up the transition average salary, post them and I will look them up.

As for my take, I do not think Collins is at the Reed or Polamalu level. I have not seen enough of Wilson to compare. Same with Hope and Atogwe.

But I wouldn't be stunned if it took top 6 or 7 money to get him signed. The unfortunate part is that both Reed's and Polamalu's contracts are a little dated at this time and they are 2 of the top 3. For a safety, he will not be cheap.

[pbmax]

Won't be able to leave for two years if things go the way they are currently headed
And that gives the Packers all the cards now. It would certainly tick him off, but what choice does he have other than to hold out of camp like Walter Jones did while they were franchising him?

He could do a Mike Wahle contract. A 3 year deal for substantial, but not top, money that will let him hit UFA in 3 years at age 29.

[gbgary]

this is a though one

IMO he's not in the same class as a ed reed, but he's not a guy i would want to lose either

the massive years he had two years ago and the good year he had last year combined with the pro bowls, probably mean he's going to be paid as one of the top safeties in the league

is he an elite safety? no

but he isn't too far back

i think this might be one of those times where we might have to pay a little bit more then he is really worth just because if we don't someone else will

and we really can't afford to lose him

i'm right there with ya. i don't think you want to ignore him and have a player who feels unappreciated hanging around. joe's numbers seem good considering the trending-up of safties salaries. might include a big signing bonus. nothing like money in hand to make someone happy.

[Bretsky]

We hold the cards here; I'd go five year 32 to 35 with twenty mil guaranteed and a nice signing bonus.

[RashanGary]

We hold the cards here; I'd go five year 32 to 35 with twenty mil guaranteed and a nice signing bonus.

That's about how I feel. If not, play him next year for the 1st and third tender, then franchise him after that, then if he's proven to be an elite safety, pay him after that.

To me, Collins is a full tier below the best. He makes too many mistakes to be considered great. I woudln't want to pay him as elite.

[get louder at lambeau]

Thompson was leaving work around 6 PM in his sensibly priced 1988 Chevrolet Celebrity and did not appear to see the green and yellow tractor approaching at the stoplight.

:lol: Nice. I kinda see TT as a beige, low-mileage 1995 Volvo station wagon type of a guy, myself. He's getting paid pretty well these days. :wink: And I heard the tractor is in an underground body shop in Eau Claire being repaired and repainted with a nice lavender sparkle finish as we speak.

As for the question at hand, JH has a good point. Collins can be had for the next two years at an average of about $6 mil each with the high tender and franchise tag. If he gets injured in this year, you're not on the hook for next year's salary either. I wouldn't feel as pressured to sign him NOW as the average fan might think.

With that in mind, I would prefer to lock him up long term, because he is a fast guy and a playmaker. He will be able to play for a long time, barring injury, because he'll still be fast if he loses a step, and should be more fundamentally sound by then. He just finished his first year in the Capers scheme, and should improve this year with experience, which would give him more leverage if we hold off on negotiating until next year.

Being TT, I also prefer to maintain locker room chemistry and keep players paid before they reach FA. I'd throw an offer at him for 5 years, $35 million, with about half of that guaranteed. He'd be 32 before he'd play anywhere else, but could still squeak another contract out of his career if he stays healthy.

[red]

slap the highest tender on collins

trade him for a 1st (maybe more)

sign rolle or someone like that

then take you tackle in the first round and a guy like spiller, or patrick robinson, or iupati or something like that with the other 1st round pick

we would still have a safety around the same talent level as what we had for probably around the same price, but we pick up another big time prospect in the draft