Compensatory Pick Projections

[Lurker64]

This guy does an excellent job projecting the compensatory picks every year: http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2010/03/projecting-2010-compensatory-nfl-draft.html

He has us slated to get a 5th or 6th round pick from losing Colin Cole last year, I'd say that's pretty good. We should find out March 22nd or so.

[Joemailman]

6th for Cole sounds about right. Some have been saying 5, but I think that's unlikely. Is the same system is place for 2011 if there is not a new CBA? If so, we're probably looking at a 4th for Kampman.

[Lurker64]

6th for Cole sounds about right. Some have been saying 5, but I think that's unlikely. Is the same system is place for 2011 if there is not a new CBA? If so, we're probably looking at a 4th for Kampman.

If I recall correctly, there's no draft in 2011 if there's no CBA extension. There won't necessarily be a lockout or a walkout, as the league can unilaterally impose work rules and invite the players to come play, but if they did that the draft would be illegal.

[get louder at lambeau]

6th for Cole sounds about right. Some have been saying 5, but I think that's unlikely. Is the same system is place for 2011 if there is not a new CBA? If so, we're probably looking at a 4th for Kampman.

If I recall correctly, there's no draft in 2011 if there's no CBA extension. There won't necessarily be a lockout or a walkout, as the league can unilaterally impose work rules and invite the players to come play, but if they did that the draft would be illegal.

Not so, apparently-


The NFL has been making it clear that, notwithstanding the status of the labor deal between the league and the players' union, the draft will be conducted in 2011.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/03/08/birds-ship-brown-to-bucs/

[Lurker64]

6th for Cole sounds about right. Some have been saying 5, but I think that's unlikely. Is the same system is place for 2011 if there is not a new CBA? If so, we're probably looking at a 4th for Kampman.

If I recall correctly, there's no draft in 2011 if there's no CBA extension. There won't necessarily be a lockout or a walkout, as the league can unilaterally impose work rules and invite the players to come play, but if they did that the draft would be illegal.

Not so, apparently-


The NFL has been making it clear that, notwithstanding the status of the labor deal between the league and the players' union, the draft will be conducted in 2011.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/03/08/birds-ship-brown-to-bucs/

I'll have to ask my lawyer friend to clarify, but I think if they're planning on holding a 2011 draft notwithstanding a labor deal, they will need to move up the timetable to hold the draft in February. But I'm not 100% on that.

[pbmax]

Well, the league can assert whatever it likes, but that does not mean they would prevail if it gets tested in the courts. The League also has an interest in not causing a panic declaration by underclassmen into this draft, which did happen to some extent. One of the reasons this draft is so deep is that there are very good underclassmen available.

So rather than read the League's intent as "there will be a 2011 draft" it might be less confusing to read it as "the League is planning for a draft".

If the Union has decertified in 2011 and is challenging work rules in the courts, the League could still conduct a draft. And they would likely be subject to another court action by the college players affected.

[Fritz]

I agree, PB. And look at the wording: "the draft will be conducted in 2011."

The draft will be conducted. That doesn't mean it'll be legal. But it will be conducted.

Drew Barrymore will be asked out on a date. But that doesn't mean she's going.

[Guiness]

Wow, talk of '11 being uncapped as well.

I have to think the wheels would fall off sometime between now and then. What they'd fall off of, I don't know

[CaliforniaCheez]

Third round compensatory picks go usually for high contract free agents like Albert Haynesworth.

Haynesworth is the benchmark for which to compare Colin Cole.

Haynesworth started 12 games
Cole started 15 for the Seahawks

Both had 29 solo tackles, Haynesworth 8 assists and Cole 19 assists.

Haynesworth had 4 sacks and Cole had 0.
Haynesworth blocked 5 passes and cole 2.

Cole signed a 5 year 21 million deal with 5 million guaranteed.
Haynesworth signed a 7 year 100million contract with 41 million guaranteed.

The Packers did not sign a significant free agent from another team. So there is no offset.

So if the Titans are likely to get a 3rd round compensatory for Haynesworth, shouldn't the Packers get a 5th round compensatory pick?

I cannot see it being worth less than a 5th.

Anyone see it differently or dislike the comparison?

[get louder at lambeau]

Third round compensatory picks go usually for high contract free agents like Albert Haynesworth.

Haynesworth is the benchmark for which to compare Colin Cole.

Haynesworth started 12 games
Cole started 15 for the Seahawks

Both had 29 solo tackles, Haynesworth 8 assists and Cole 19 assists.

Haynesworth had 4 sacks and Cole had 0.
Haynesworth blocked 5 passes and cole 2.

Cole signed a 5 year 21 million deal with 5 million guaranteed.
Haynesworth signed a 7 year 100million contract with 41 million guaranteed.

The Packers did not sign a significant free agent from another team. So there is no offset.

So if the Titans are likely to get a 3rd round compensatory for Haynesworth, shouldn't the Packers get a 5th round compensatory pick?

I cannot see it being worth less than a 5th.

Anyone see it differently or dislike the comparison?

I like your logic. I've been assuming a 5th for Cole, but I haven't analyzed it like that. Great stuff.

[LP]

I agree, PB. And look at the wording: "the draft will be conducted in 2011."

The draft will be conducted. That doesn't mean it'll be legal. But it will be conducted.

Drew Barrymore will be asked out on a date. But that doesn't mean she's going.

You have first hand knowledge of this? :)

[Fritz]

No. But I'm probably too old for Drew. I think she's about twelve or thirteen years younger than I am.