Predicting Pass Rushing Success

[Lurker64]

Football Outsiders has a very interesting article here:

http://footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2010/introducing-sackseer

Using their metric, they predict Jerry Hughes to be the most successful of the early picks, with Morgan, Graham, Griffen, and Kindle probable middle of the road talent, with Dunlap and Pierre-Paul as complete busts.

They also have Eric Norwood and Daniel Te'O'Nesheim as later round guys who have the potential to be surprisingly good. Norwood would be a decent 2nd or 3rd round pick for us, while Te'O'Nesheim would probably be there in the late rounds. He might be able to play OLB, though the 4.73 40 and 1.61 10 yard split is not particularly encouraging, the 4.18 short shuttle, 6.91 3-cone, 37" vert and 10'01" broad suggest he might have the athleticism to play in space (for the Gold Standard, our own Clay Matthews ran a 4.62 40 with an eye-popping 1.49 10 yard split, had a 4.18 short shuttle, a 6.90 3-cone, with a 35.5" vert and a 10'01" broad).

[RashanGary]

Thanks. That was, indeed, interesting.


Bring on Eric Norwood!!

[swede]

That was entertaining.

Another vote for Jerry Hughes.

[vince]

Bring on Eric Norwood!!
NFL Draft Countdown has him rated as a Round 2-3 value, so I'm not sure how much of a late-round guy he'll be. Here's his write-up. I'd be ecstatic to add him to the roster opposite Matthews if Hughes isn't taken. He was the team captain. He seems like a guy that TT would like very much.

Strengths:
Good bulk with a stout frame --- Strong and powerful --- Outstanding blitzer / pass rusher --- Good tackler --- Nice range --- Does a great job in pursuit --- Plays with terrific leverage --- Uses his hands well --- Good balance --- Instinctive --- Fantastic motor --- Very competitive --- Lots of big-time experience --- Team leader --- Tough --- Durable --- Productive.

Weaknesses:
Shorter than you'd prefer --- Average athleticism --- Is not overly quick or fast --- Does not match up well in coverage --- Lacks great awareness with the ball in the air --- Too aggressive at times --- Some trouble getting off blocks --- Sub par ball skills --- Limited schematically?

Notes:
Was a three-year starter for the Gamecocks --- Earned 1st Team All-American honors as a senior --- Named 1st Team All-SEC in 2007, 2008 and 2009 --- South Carolina's all-time leader in both sacks and tackles for a loss --- Originally declared for the 2009 NFL Draft but ultimately pulled his name out --- Also a good kick blocker --- Appears to be a DE / OLB 'tweener --- Playmaker who is always around the action and has a knack for shining on big stages --- Best fit will likely come in a 3-4 scheme --- Lacks ideal physical tools but is just a good football player --- Could draw favorable comparisons to James Harrison.

[Fritz]

Thanks for the good info, all of you! This is the stuff I like.