Shifting Philosophy

[RashanGary]

Ted has started to shift his philosophy a little. He won't budge from his BPA philosophy, but there have been some noticeable changes the last couple years.

He's been trading down less and trading up more. Go read his transcript about why he moved up for Burnett. For the first time, it sounds like he moved up when several players of the same tier were available to pick a player his roster needed.

In the past, he'd always trade back and take which ever one fell.

It seems like he's starting to put more final touches on the roster rather than just bulk replacing it.



Here's old Ted:

Ted is sitting at #28. He has 8 guys on the same tier available. He feels he could use players at every position because the roster just is not strong.

Somebody 7 picks later calls to move up. He knows he can still get a player on that tier if he falls back 7 spots. Quality is equal, but the position will vary based on how the draft falls.

He trades back, drafts whatever falls and picks up an extra pick to continue bulk replacing his roster.



Here's new Ted:

Ted's sitting at 80-whatever. Pick 70 is picking. He sees 8 players he'd really like, but 7 of them are at positions he feels we have good roster depth. One of them is at a position he really needs depth.

He calls, trades up and takes the player he needs.


For the first time, his description for why he moved up was completely different than every time in the past. This time, it was about filling a need. He did not sway from his BPA, he did take the BPA, but he moved up into a tier where there were several equal players so he could take a particular one. It shows more of a fine tuning of the roster than a bulk replacing.



Just something I noticed.

[RashanGary]

And I know the Neal pick didn't work out that way, but the surprise position pick and trade downs are becoming less and less. More and more we're taking guys at positions of great need and moving up.

[Lurker64]

I don't know how much his philosophy has shifted, so much as he recognizes that different roster strengths require a different philosophy.

If you are a bad team or have a shallow roster, trading down nets you a lot. You will be able to upgrade a lot of positions and some of your picks will be "hits" and turn into potential stars. Trading up, however, nets you very little as you are giving up several upgrades at different positions, for a single upgrade of a position. You're also maximizing risk, in case the guy you trade up for "busts".

If you're a good team, or have a deep roster, trading down nets you very little. Additional sixth round picks are unlikely to beat out more established players and your roster size is finite. Trading up, on the other hand, can be used to upgrade a key position while you're only giving up picks that might be spent on guys who would be only slight upgrades or wouldn't make the roster in the first place. You stand to gain a lot (if you're right about a player), but you can always fall back on the fact that your team is pretty good anyway.

It's simply a reasonable strategy.

[RashanGary]

I agree. McCarthy keeps talking about shifting into that next phase where they resign their guys and grow together.

It seems that 2nd phase included the draft. Moving up more, down less and focusing on specific roster holes over bulk replacement. But yeah, I recognize that it's different because the roster is different, not because he's just changed. If he had the old roster again, he'd do the same thing he did last time to build it up.

[TennesseePackerBacker]

I mentioned this in another thread before the draft and didn't get much of a response. It seems pretty clear to me that Ted is willing to gamble now that he feels his team is close.

[Tony Oday]

I think he will see this year how close we actually are and trade up in the draft and sign a vet.

I like the way this is going...now lets see what MM and the gang can do!

[rbaloha1]

TT is flexible. Roster needs fine tuning -- not a complete overhaul like 2006.

[CaliforniaCheez]

Lots of roster holes require more draft picks.

Fewer roster holes require more attention to quality at limited positions and far fewer options are available.

The have's go for quality and the have not's go for quantity.

Thus there will always be trading partners in the NFL draft.

[swede]

Lots of roster holes require more draft picks.

Fewer roster holes require more attention to quality at limited positions and far fewer options are available.

The have's go for quality and the have not's go for quantity.

Thus there will always be trading partners in the NFL draft.

Good. Maybe someone will take our two 5ths and a 7th for a high 4th!

(Gotta save the 6th for the punter.)

[Lurker64]

Lots of roster holes require more draft picks.

Fewer roster holes require more attention to quality at limited positions and far fewer options are available.

The have's go for quality and the have not's go for quantity.

Thus there will always be trading partners in the NFL draft.

Good. Maybe someone will take our two 5ths and a 7th for a high 4th!

(Gotta save the 6th for the punter.)

Can't trade the second fifth, as it's a compensatory. Trade a 5th, 6th, and 7th for a late fourth and take a punter with the fifth.

[swede]

Lots of roster holes require more draft picks.

Fewer roster holes require more attention to quality at limited positions and far fewer options are available.

The have's go for quality and the have not's go for quantity.

Thus there will always be trading partners in the NFL draft.

Good. Maybe someone will take our two 5ths and a 7th for a high 4th!

(Gotta save the 6th for the punter.)

Can't trade the second fifth, as it's a compensatory. Trade a 5th, 6th, and 7th for a late fourth and take a punter with the fifth.

Work the phones Lurker. See what you can do.

[Chubbyhubby]

We were so close last year.... Our offense was stellar in the playoffs. Our Defense just fell apart. We are doing a great job in the draft. I think the Packers should address the Return game by selecting AJ Jefferson a return specialist who plays CB. or Arthur Moats OLB from James Madison. Moats has been one of the better small school pass rushers the past two seasons and has been a disruptive force, consistently blowing up plays in the backfield. He's a pass rush specialist who will be brought onto the field in third-down situations and lined up as either a one-gap defensive end or outside linebacker for an NFL team.

If we get either of those players I'd will do some back flips.

[green_bowl_packer]

Just read on JSO comment section regarding comments on the Morgan Burnett pick.

That since 2005, TT has drafted 51 players. Of those, 4 are out of football completely. 13 more are on other teams' rosters. The rest (34) are still employed by the Green Bay Packers. 92% stick rate - pretty f'ing good!!! I wonder how TT stacks up against the rest of the league.

I think TT is smart enough to change his approach as the team changes and evolves, as much as I'd love to shocked and awed with about 5-6 picks by this point like NE has done (pre-emptive rebuilding there???) and is obviously in a cherry on top phase plugging up positions of need, which I'm glad is finally here.

[RashanGary]

Andre Thurmond and Alteraun Verner are two pretty good corner prospects I'd like.

[Fritz]

I feel like I'm reading some high quality posting on Rats lately, and especially today with the draft analysis. The old mojo is coming back.

[swede]

Just read on JSO comment section regarding comments on the Morgan Burnett pick.

That since 2005, TT has drafted 51 players. Of those, 4 are out of football completely. 13 more are on other teams' rosters. The rest (34) are still employed by the Green Bay Packers. 92% stick rate - pretty f'ing good!!! I wonder how TT stacks up against the rest of the league.

I think TT is smart enough to change his approach as the team changes and evolves, as much as I'd love to shocked and awed with about 5-6 picks by this point like NE has done (pre-emptive rebuilding there???) and is obviously in a cherry on top phase plugging up positions of need, which I'm glad is finally here.

I can hate the Yankees because they use the local money machine to purchase established stars, but NE impresses me with their mastery of drafting, draft trading, free agency, and cap management. Playing with essentially the same money as everyone else they use every tool--including illegal ones-- to stay at or near the top. I have a predisposition to be annoyed by them but I shake my head in grudging respect. From what I heard they already have two firsts and two seconds in next year's draft. wow

[green_bowl_packer]

Just read on JSO comment section regarding comments on the Morgan Burnett pick.

That since 2005, TT has drafted 51 players. Of those, 4 are out of football completely. 13 more are on other teams' rosters. The rest (34) are still employed by the Green Bay Packers. 92% stick rate - pretty f'ing good!!! I wonder how TT stacks up against the rest of the league.

I think TT is smart enough to change his approach as the team changes and evolves, as much as I'd love to shocked and awed with about 5-6 picks by this point like NE has done (pre-emptive rebuilding there???) and is obviously in a cherry on top phase plugging up positions of need, which I'm glad is finally here.

I can hate the Yankees because they use the local money machine to purchase established stars, but NE impresses me with their mastery of drafting, draft trading, free agency, and cap management. I have a predisposition to be annoyed by them but I shake my head in grudging respect. From what I heard they already have two firsts and two seconds in next year's draft. wow

Damn near every year NE has two 1sts, that they either pick a stud with or turn into another 1st for the next year.

I'm of the theory that there are only about 5 teams who know what they are doing organizationally (NE, PITT, PHI, IND, and GB).

For example, watch Jerry Hughes the guy who we were all over for a 3-4 OLB, Polian took him for a 4-3 DE. Guy will probably end up as the new Freeney or the guy INDY has that does nothing but swipe the ball out of QBs hands.

[LEWCWA]

I don't know how much his philosophy has shifted, so much as he recognizes that different roster strengths require a different philosophy.

If you are a bad team or have a shallow roster, trading down nets you a lot. You will be able to upgrade a lot of positions and some of your picks will be "hits" and turn into potential stars. Trading up, however, nets you very little as you are giving up several upgrades at different positions, for a single upgrade of a position. You're also maximizing risk, in case the guy you trade up for "busts".

If you're a good team, or have a deep roster, trading down nets you very little. Additional sixth round picks are unlikely to beat out more established players and your roster size is finite. Trading up, on the other hand, can be used to upgrade a key position while you're only giving up picks that might be spent on guys who would be only slight upgrades or wouldn't make the roster in the first place. You stand to gain a lot (if you're right about a player), but you can always fall back on the fact that your team is pretty good anyway.

It's simply a reasonable strategy.


Oh how people forget! This is the same thing Sherman did for years and got blasted for in the end! Trading up for specific players is a fools game. Every pick in this draft is a huge gamble. If your going to give the picks away, you better be right or your job title will change in a heartbeat.

[mission]

I don't know how much his philosophy has shifted, so much as he recognizes that different roster strengths require a different philosophy.

If you are a bad team or have a shallow roster, trading down nets you a lot. You will be able to upgrade a lot of positions and some of your picks will be "hits" and turn into potential stars. Trading up, however, nets you very little as you are giving up several upgrades at different positions, for a single upgrade of a position. You're also maximizing risk, in case the guy you trade up for "busts".

If you're a good team, or have a deep roster, trading down nets you very little. Additional sixth round picks are unlikely to beat out more established players and your roster size is finite. Trading up, on the other hand, can be used to upgrade a key position while you're only giving up picks that might be spent on guys who would be only slight upgrades or wouldn't make the roster in the first place. You stand to gain a lot (if you're right about a player), but you can always fall back on the fact that your team is pretty good anyway.

It's simply a reasonable strategy.


Oh how people forget! This is the same thing Sherman did for years and got blasted for in the end! Trading up for specific players is a fools game. Every pick in this draft is a huge gamble. If your going to give the picks away, you better be right or your job title will change in a heartbeat.

hey there you are! sherman!!! :alc: