Proving the uselessness of immediately judging a draft

[MichiganPackerFan]

It's always fun to read grades and discuss the draft immediately after the fact, but you never know what happens. That's why it's really useless to judge it until at least three years have elapsed.

CBS Sports' Pete Prisco just reassessed the 2007 draft. It was hard to locate many that he was spot on about.

His assessment of all 32 teams as written in 2007 is here:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/10157575/draft-grades-finally-we-can-start-with-browns-on-top?tag=coverlist_active;coverlist_footer

Green Bay Packers

Best pick: Justin Harrell. Yes, their first pick. He will be a force in the middle of their line.

Questionable move: Nebraska running back Brandon Jackson is a need pick, but he runs a little upright.

Second-day gem: Fifth-round pick David Clowney has blazing speed. If he can improve his route running, he could be a nice addition.

Overall grade: B

His reassessment of that draft is here:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/13313391/regrading-2007-draft-threeyear-look-back-gives-real-picture?tag=coverlist_active;coverlist_photo

Green Bay Packers

The Packers took defensive tackle Justin Harrell in the first round. He has started two games in three seasons and missed last season with a back injury. He has been a major flop. Second-round pick Brandon Jackson has been mainly a backup running back. The best picks are third-rounder James Jones, a receiver, fullback Korey Hall, who came in the sixth round, and kicker Mason Crosby, who also came in the sixth. The last two are starters. Fifth-round pick Allen Barbre did start seven games on the offensive line last season. The miss on Harrell is what really sets this grade back. He was taken with the 16th overall pick. Jackson hasn't done enough either.

Grade: C+

It's fun to look back at these. Hope our 2010 grades out well in 2013!

[retailguy]

I will never forget that pick. I was sitting in a rental car in Waterloo Iowa listening to the draft on ESPN radio. When I heard the pick, I was like "WHO?"

Today, I wish I was still thinking, "WHO?" but sadly I know exactly who he is.... :(

[MichiganPackerFan]

The most frustrating thing to me is that the back wasn't an issue for him in college. And his college injury hasn't recurred since he became a pro. Every report I've read says he's worked as hard as possible to recover. It seems it was more bad luck than anything.

[retailguy]

"If it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all. Doom, despair, and agony on me...." :shock:

[RashanGary]

Grade is still yet to be determined. Jones, Hall, Jackson and Crosby's careers aren't really defined yet.


Worst case, it's probably about a D. Best case, it could work into a B. Thompson's worst draft though. He's averaging a star in every draft and 2 or 3 solid starters.

Over time that adds up. Eventually you have 7 or 8 stars with a lot of good players around them.

[Lurker64]

The best turnaround ever for a draft grade was the 2005 Vikings draft. It was nearly universally given an A or an A- right after it happened, and was downgraded to an F about three years later. I don't think I've ever seen such a dramatic turnaround.

[MichiganPackerFan]

The best turnaround ever for a draft grade was the 2005 Vikings draft. It was nearly universally given an A or an A- right after it happened, and was downgraded to an F about three years later. I don't think I've ever seen such a dramatic turnaround.

Had to look it up, but you are totally right:
Round Pick Player Pos School
1 7(7) Troy Williamson WR South Carolina
1 18(18) Erasmus James DE Wisconsin
2 17(49) Marcus Johnson OG Ole Miss
3 16(80) Dustin Fox CB Ohio St.
4 11(112) Ciatrick Fason HB Florida
6 17(191) C.J. Mosley DT Missouri
7 5(219) Adrian Ward CB UTEP


:?: (Does anyone know how to actually post these in a table?)

At the same time, Green Bay was grabbing Rodgers, Collins and Poppinga.

However, the Packers 2001-2004 drafts were pretty horrific too. With the exceptions of Scott Wells (2004 7th round gem), Barnett (2003), Kampman (2002), there were NO other players in those four years.

[vince]

It's ALL useless, but we do it anyway because it's entertaining.

[Lurker64]

However, the Packers 2001-2004 drafts were pretty horrific too. With the exceptions of Scott Wells (2004 7th round gem), Barnett (2003), Kampman (2002), there were NO other players in those four years.

Oh sure, those are some bad drafts. The thing that's notable about the 2005 Vikings draft is not that it failed to yield any notable performers, it's that all of the "experts" missed so badly on evaluating it. The consensus had it as one of, if not the, best draft in 2005 immediately after it happened, and three years later it ended up as one of the worst.

It just illustrates the absurdity of grading drafts right after they happen. Around half of all players, no matter how good we think they're going to be, just aren't going to work out in the NFL. Sometimes you just flip seven coins and get seven tails in a row. It happens.

[Tarlam!]

Grade is still yet to be determined. Jones, Hall, Jackson and Crosby's careers aren't really defined yet.

I think they are pretty well defined. They're OK, decent, decent, ordinary. They haven't blown the wheels off of anything.

The only ??? is whether or not Harrell can turn out to play.

The draft is a C-Minus IMHO.

[Lurker64]

About the 2007 draft, I'm pretty confident in saying that it's Thompson's worst as a Packer GM. But at least he got something out of it. A running back that can be counted on to block on third down, a #3-4 WR with some upside, a backup fullback, a core special teamer, and a half-way decent kicker aren't chopped liver.

Not exactly anything that makes you go back and look at that draft and say "that was amazing", but not uniformly bad.

As for the Harrell pick, I think at this point, we can get beyond "looking at what round people were drafted in" and just look at contribution to the team. Harrell's impact has been minimal, but the first round that year was littered with guys who didn't quite work out.

I mean, watch just look at Reggie Nelson (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yec92sIjn2I&feature=player_embedded) who a lot of people wanted (myself included).

[Fritz]

Ouch on that Reggie Nelson video. Ouch.

[Lurker64]

Ouch on that Reggie Nelson video. Ouch.

On the plus side, Yakety Sax makes nearly everything funny.

[channtheman]

Yes but see if we didn't all grade drafts the day after they occurred, we wouldn't be able to look back 3 years later and say "Damn, we were way off."

[MichiganPackerFan]

Yes but see if we didn't all grade drafts the day after they occurred, we wouldn't be able to look back 3 years later and say "Damn, we were way off."

It is a lot of fun to do and even more fun to look back on, except when the results are Harrell-like.

[Fritz]

Ouch on that Reggie Nelson video. Ouch.

On the plus side, Yakety Sax makes nearly everything funny.

And Nelson did look like Benny Hill trying to play safety...

[Patler]

Even "regrading" 3 years later can prove to be too early. From a "D" in 2005: to a "B-" in 2008, to two Pro-Bowl players in 2009, with one being one of the leagues better QBs for hopefully the next 10 years. Not a deep draft, with Poppinga the only other one still in GB, but when you get a franchise QB and a safety like Collins, a "B-" seems low.


Grade given on 5/1/05: D
Grade given on 6/3/08: B-
Good Moves: The Packers had a tough choice to make in the first round: draft a talented successor to Brett Favre, or improve their woeful defense. They chose the latter. Green Bay has a bright future, but their present is bleak. Center Junius Coston and WR Craig Bragg were excellent choices in the fifth- and sixth-rounds, respectively.

Bad Moves: Green Bay did not address their woeful front seven until the fourth round. Cornerback Nick Collins and wide receiver Terrence Murphy, both taken in the second round, were fourth-round prospects, at best. None of Green Bay's other picks made any sense. If they passed up on Rodgers in the first round, the Packers would have an F.

June 3, 2008 Update: My biggest gripe with Green Bay's draft is that they basically said "screw you" to the present when they drafted Aaron Rodgers. They had to do it though; Rodgers was way too much value to pass up at No. 24 overall. Rodgers' outstanding performance against the Cowboys in late November should have Green Bay fans optimistic about the future and a bit puzzled as to why GM Ted Thompson drafted Brian Brohm in April. If Rodgers doesn't pan out for whatever reason, Green Bay's best pick in this class was the second-rounder it used on Nick Collins, who played extremely well at free safety last season. However, the same can't be said about many of the team's other choices, though Junius Coston (5th round) played pretty well at left guard before getting hurt.

The Packers' other second-round choice, receiver Terrence Murphy, is no longer in the league ... In addition to Murphy, Marviel Underwood (4th round), Mike Hawkins (5th round), Craig Bragg (6th round) and Will Whitticker (7th round) are currently unemployed ... Brady Poppinga (4th round) was considered the weakest link of Green Bay's linebacking corps, but he actually performed admirably in the playoffs. The Packers didn't think so, however, as they signed Brandon Chillar this offseason ... Michael Montgomery (6th round) is still on Green Bay's roster, though he's buried on the depth chart. Kurt Campbell (7th round) is on Tennessee's scout team.


Murphy and Collins were bad picks, Coston and Bragg were good picks in his evaluation after the draft. :lol:

[Fritz]

Junius Coston played well? Huh?

And no acknowledgement that Murphy looked awfully promising before he got hurt, as did, to a lesser extent, Marviel Underwood.

Even the re-grade comments make no sense.

[channtheman]

Junius Coston played well? Huh?

And no acknowledgement that Murphy looked awfully promising before he got hurt, as did, to a lesser extent, Marviel Underwood.

Even the re-grade comments make no sense.

Yeah kinda sad actually that there was no mention of Murphy's injury.

And I don't get his biggest gripe. Who would he rather the Packers take that would have led them to the Super Bowl in 2007? I suppose we'd have to look at the draft but I don't remember anyone at 24 that was so good and above Rodgers and at a position of need. And besides, we said "screw" the present but now look at our present. If Rodgers stays healthy, we're pretty much set for the next 10 years.

[cheesner]

We spend hours following this forum discussing various prospects

We buy draft guides and read them cove to cover

We watch NFLN and ESPN for any tidbits on the draft

We watch highlight youtube videos of college players

We sit in front of the tube and watch hours of video of all the players running drills in indianapolis.

We search the various internet sites hoping to find out any bio info we can.

We discuss the packers defensive scheme and how player X's skillset will fit into the system.

We fill out mock drafts matching team needs to player skill and potential impact

We go to live web chats with professional scouts where we ask them the most detailed questions regarding the potential of this plaer or that.


We argue for 20 posts back and forth on ranking one prospect over another based on if his arms are too short causing him to be suseptible to a counter swim move by a speedrush DT in the 5 technique and the other guy appears to not have the proper ball skills to track a ball in the air because he doesn't swivel his hips in a fluid manner and his. . . . .

.

.
.

And then the draft occurs and we sit there looking at each other and say "huh. We have to wait three years because ther is no way to know if these players are any good or not"