Red Zone Blues

[Joemailman]

Some interesting stuff about the Packers defensive problems in the red zone last year. http://www.packers.com/news/stories/2010/05/21/1/. I was especially struck by this part:

In the 11 games Green Bay won last season, opponents scored TDs only 11 of 26 times in the red zone, or 42.3 percent. That number, over the course of 16 games, would have ranked fourth in the league in 2009.

But in the six games the Packers lost, including the playoff defeat in Arizona, offenses nearly doubled that rate to 22 TDs in 27 red-zone possessions, or 81.5 percent. The breakdown was as follows: Cincinnati 4-of-4, Minnesota (two games) 7-of-8, Tampa Bay 3-of-3, Pittsburgh 3-of-5, and Arizona 5-of-7.

Red zone defense is the kind of thing that separates Super Bowl teams from playoff teams. I think it was Ted Williams who said, "Don't tell me what you hit, tell me when you hit it." I think the same applies here.

[vince]

But in the six games the Packers lost, including the playoff defeat in Arizona, offenses nearly doubled that rate to 22 TDs in 27 red-zone possessions, or 81.5 percent.
17 of those red-zone TD's in those games came through the air. Only five were scored on the ground.

In all, the team gave up 21 passing TD's (and 5 rushing) in those six games. That's more TDs than half the teams in the league threw in 16 games last year.

Including the playoff game, GB only allowed six rushing TD's all year (best in the league) - none beyond the red zone.

Long story short, the red-zone blues are passing-defense blues.

[packerbacker1234]

But in the six games the Packers lost, including the playoff defeat in Arizona, offenses nearly doubled that rate to 22 TDs in 27 red-zone possessions, or 81.5 percent.
17 of those red-zone TD's in those games came through the air. Only five were scored on the ground.

In all, the team gave up 21 passing TD's (and 5 rushing) in those six games. That's more TDs than half the teams in the league threw in 16 games last year.

Including the playoff game, GB only allowed six rushing TD's all year (best in the league) - none beyond the red zone.

Long story short, the red-zone blues are passing-defense blues.

Thats a given though. Everyone knows the 3-4 switch magically made us really good at stopping the run. I guess we have the right LB's and DL for run stuffing, which is a good sign. The passing defense is obviously something that is a major concern, especially against the top tier QB's (all of those losses have the one common factor of facing a top tier passer).

We need to find a way to prevent the good qb's from tearing us apart back there.

[Pugger]

Matthews and Jones should be better in their second seasons. Having our CBs back from the IR and drafting Burnett will help the secondary. Drafting Neal and Wilson for the D line rotation can keep our big guys up front fresher and if we can get some production out of Harrell that would be gravy! If any of these scenarios come true a lot of our pass defensive woes from last year will be history. 8-)

[vince]

So I went back on NFL.com and looked at each of the 21 TD passes in those six games and here's what happened in each of them. Obviously these are just the money plays and don't consider what else happened in each of the games.

Cincy
1 - Rouse bit hard on play-action leaving no-one in the middle for Lavernius Coles TD.
2 - Rouse flat footed as Henry goes right behind him across the back of the end zone.
3 - Tramon Williams beat by Ochocinco.

@ Vikes
1 - Barnett beat by Shiancoe
2 - Tramon beat by Rice
3 - Derrick Martin failed to be in position over the top on Berrian

Vikes
1 - Shiancoe beat Williams, Favre had too much time
2 - Keystone Cops play into Collins' zone deep to Harvin
3 - Chillar run off by the TE, Hawk couldn't get out on the FB
4 - Collins out of position or too slow to rotate on blitz. Bigy misses tackle on Berrian

@ Bucs
1 - Kampman beat by Ward in the flat, gets to the pylon
2 - Matthews gets swallowed inside, loses contain on Freeman who scrambles left and hits Winslow over Bigby in the back of the end zone.
3 - Bush toasted, bit on a move inside and burned to the back pylon, wide open

@ Pitt
1 - Bush beat by Wallace on 60 yd isolation one-on-one
2 - Chillar doesn't get out to cover stacked receiver Moore.
3 - No pressure whatsoever. Wallace beats Bell to the outside in the endzone.

@ Cards
1 - Bush and Chillar both go to the flat to cover RB, Doucet left alone on short cross
2 - Very similar play. Bush goes with Doucet on short crossing route and can't stay with him.
3 - Too much time. Warner steps up and right and hits Fitzgerald who pushed off Woodson to get space.
4 - Fitz again bumps Woodson down and Giordano not there over the top.
5 - Chillar beat on an inside move by Breaston over the top.

Primary Responsibility

LB - 5
Chillar 3
Barnett 1
Kampman 1

CB - 8
Bush 4
Williams 2
Woodson 1
Bell 1

S - 6
Girodano 1
Rouse 2
Martin 1
Collins 2

DL - 2
No Pressure 2

About half of these plays occurred as a result of confusion due to inexperience and/or people who would not have been playing if not for injuries (Chillar and Bush got mixed up a couple times, although Chillar was utimately at fault). Obviously, injuries happen and you have to have people in place to get the job done.

I attribute only 2 of the TD's to lack of pressure, although in fairness there was one other (Roethlisberger's final TD to Wallace for the game winner), maybe 2, in which the QB had no pressure to throw the ball that partially contributed to the result.

Jarrett Bush was an abused man on scoring plays.

[Fred's Slacks]

Nice breakdown vince. This is the deadest of the dead times so it's nice to have something like that to read. Good stuff.

It certainly seems like inexperience and breakdowns played a larger role in our defensive woes than the pass rush. We really need some DBs to step up this year and provide the depth we need for a run at this thing. I think the pass rush will be better barring some key injuries. Everyone is pretty young and coming back so we should only be better in the front 7.

[vince]

Barring inury, this year the Packers should have Burnett, a more experienced Martin, and/or Blackmon instead of a green Martin, Rouse and Giordano at safety. I'd say there's little doubt that should be an improvement.

At corner, there's a healthy Pat Lee, who could be considered a draft pick with some seasoning this year, Underwood with a season under his belt, Bell, and/or Bush who are probably what they are. Plus Harris, although he played in four of the six losses. Depending on who makes the squad, that might be an upgrade.

At LB, I'd expect Chillar to be a bit better than last year based on more experience with the defense. At minimum, these guys should be at least as good as last year. OLB's were not a big factor - at least in terms of being victimized on scoring plays, but they should be better.

The D-Line should be at least as good as last year and likely better.

[pbmax]

Good work vince. Though I will now be depressed through the holiday weekend.

How did you calculate the "too much time" factor? Was it when the QB had extraordinary time to go through progressions again or did you set a specific amount of time?

[packerbacker1234]

If this doesn't indicate bush should not be on the field, nothing ever will.

[vince]

Most of the plays were pretty quick reads in the red zone, and the play developed as designed, so there was little opportunity to get to the QB.

Of the handful that were in question, I used my "internal clock" and watched the qb make his reads. If he was able to stand leisurely in the pocket for 5 seconds or so, I felt that it's tough to expect the DB's to hang on forever. But again, there were really only a handful of these plays that you even would look at the rush.

In the case of Freeman's scramble, he was able to buy enough time where all of his receivers were basically in the end zone from 15 or so yds out) having completed their routes and looking for gaps in the zone to go to.

In the case of the last play at Pittsburgh, there was no pressure, but I still think that Bell should have been able to keep his outside position on the receiver, and Roethlisberger didn't really even go through his reads. He looked off and came back to Wallace completely within the timing of the play as designed.

Some might argue that one or two of those plays may have been different if Capers had rung up more pressure or the guys would have gotten there, and those people may be right, but the individual I mentioned also failed to do their job, so it's on them in my opinion. Again, there were only a few of those anyway.

[sharpe1027]

Barring inury, this year the Packers should have Burnett, a more experienced Martin, and/or Blackmon instead of a green Martin, Rouse and Giordano at safety. I'd say there's little doubt that should be an improvement.

At corner, there's a healthy Pat Lee, who could be considered a draft pick with some seasoning this year, Underwood with a season under his belt, Bell, and/or Bush who are probably what they are. Plus Harris, although he played in four of the six losses. Depending on who makes the squad, that might be an upgrade.

At LB, I'd expect Chillar to be a bit better than last year based on more experience with the defense. At minimum, these guys should be at least as good as last year. OLB's were not a big factor - at least in terms of being victimized on scoring plays, but they should be better.

The D-Line should be at least as good as last year and likely better.

I can't argue with that. I like possibility of improvement. I posted this in the other Defense-thread that got hijacked on Favre about why Capers may struggle in is second year as a coordinator.

Capers is great at adjusting his schemes to fit his current players, and this is difficult for opposing teams to adjust to because he often uses very unique solutions. However, going into his second year, the players remain largely the same so his schemes are also largely the same. Teams are given enough time to analyze and prepare and thus the drop from first year to second year.

IDK how accurate that is, because haven't looked in depth at any of the teams Capers was on previously, but he does seem to shake things up in his first year.

[3irty1]

The fact that it was Wallace and Doucet had huge games against us really shows where the problem lies.

[Joemailman]

[quote="vince"]
Cincy
1 - Rouse bit hard on play-action leaving no-one in the middle for Lavernius Coles TD.
2 - Rouse flat footed as Henry goes right behind him across the back of the end zone.
3 - Tramon Williams beat by Ochocinco.

@ Vikes
1 - Barnett beat by Shiancoe
2 - Tramon beat by Rice
3 - Derrick Martin failed to be in position over the top on Berrian

That injury to Bigby really hurt. Some people knock him, but he might be be of those guys you don't appreciate until you have to replace him.

[Guiness]

Great breakdown Vince, tx.

Can we drop Bell's to 1/2, and increase Bush by 1/2 though?
Replay showed he was supposed to be helping over the top, and drifted off in the other direction.

[Joemailman]

That was on Bell. He was supposed to take away the sideline. If the receiver cut his route inside, he had safety help from Bigby. Looks to me like Bush was covering someone in the middle of the field.

[mraynrand]

Good topic. Other teams design plays to take advantage of Packer weaknesses. Most teams can't survive losing several d-backs, and the Packers can't because they only had one decent safety last year. So teams exploited them. As far as Chillar goes, I knew that every time they brought him into the game - especially on Big Okie, the opposition was going to go directly at him. I can't recall how many times Chillar got burned by a TE (even the marginal TEs). Packers hav to be looking at that and sayin "We have to improve there." - either with better safety pickup or better LB coverage or both. As far as pass rush - that can cure a lot of ills in a secondary. Only internal improvement by Jones Matthews, Harrell, and Neal appears to be the answer. Plus some uninjured secondary guys might be nice.

[Lurker64]

Speaking of Red Zone Woes, it's not as though the offense was sterling last year. We scored 34 TDs out of 62 Red Zone possessions, which was good for like 10th in the league. Admittedly, not awful. But as good as the offense was between the 20s last year, we should probably look to be better inside of the 20 going forward.

[Guiness]

Good topic. Other teams design plays to take advantage of Packer weaknesses.

So true, that. Case in point would be the so-called 'phsyco' package. I thought it got trotted out too often, and obviously Pitt found a solution to it.

[Upnorth]

So does anyone think we picked up the right peices in the offseason to address this? Getting rid of Bush is a start, but who steps in? My biggest fear is the secondary and DL depth. Our starters are very good to great, but if we get hit by injuries I think we might see the exact same problems this year again.

[RashanGary]

Josh Bell has a chance. He's the type of player, maybe he's too light to be your starting CB, but he'd be a really nice fit as a nickle/dime type player. He's better at coverage than he is in the physical aspects of the game.

I'm going to assume Harris misses the first few games.

Woodson/Williams/Bell I think will be our top 3 corners. Hopefully Underwood turns into a player and Harris makes it back. We might be OK at DB, we might not. Hard to tell right now.

[Joemailman]

Justin, I don't think Harris will miss any games, although I wouldn't be surprised if initially he is the nickel instead of starting CB.

Anybody else surprised Bigby hasn't signed his tender, considering the Packers just drafted his potential replacement? His market value for 2011 FA goes way down if he loses his starting job to a rookie.

[Upnorth]

My big fear with Harris is that before the injury he had lost a step. Where is he going to be at now?
Joe I think you are bang on when you sau Harris will be nickel. I just don't like it.

[Joemailman]

Just wanted to revisit red zone defense again. In 2009, the Packers were 5th in the NFL in pass defense, but gave up 28 TD passes. Only 4 teams gave up more.

In 2010, the Packers are 17th in pass defense, but have only given up 8 TD passes in 8 games. That ranks 4th.

Now, I don't have red zone stats, but it sure seems that although the Packers are giving up more yards this year, they're a lot more effective this year at defending their end zone.

What's the difference? Is Peprah better in coverage than Bigby? Is the combo of Williams/Shields better than Harris/Williams? Were the Packers blitzing and gambling on INT's too much last year? Any thoughts?

[hoosier]

Just wanted to revisit red zone defense again. In 2009, the Packers were 5th in the NFL in pass defense, but gave up 28 TD passes. Only 4 teams gave up more.

In 2010, the Packers are 17th in pass defense, but have only given up 8 TD passes in 8 games. That ranks 4th.

Now, I don't have red zone stats, but it sure seems that although the Packers are giving up more yards this year, they're a lot more effective this year at defending their end zone.

What's the difference? Is Peprah better in coverage than Bigby? Is the combo of Williams/Shields better than Harris/Williams? Were the Packers blitzing and gambling on INT's too much last year? Any thoughts?

Part of it has to be who they have played and when. Favre has not come close to duplicating last year's performance. Cutler is and will always be Cutler. Neither Philly (with Vick), Washington, Detroit, Miami nor the Jets are likely to pile up lots of TDs through the air. As someone else noted in another thread, last year was the year of the QB and this year, not so much.

Let's see what they can do against Minnesota in the Humpty Dome and against Brady and Ryan on the road.

[steve823]

Just wanted to revisit red zone defense again. In 2009, the Packers were 5th in the NFL in pass defense, but gave up 28 TD passes. Only 4 teams gave up more.

In 2010, the Packers are 17th in pass defense, but have only given up 8 TD passes in 8 games. That ranks 4th.

Now, I don't have red zone stats, but it sure seems that although the Packers are giving up more yards this year, they're a lot more effective this year at defending their end zone.

What's the difference? Is Peprah better in coverage than Bigby? Is the combo of Williams/Shields better than Harris/Williams? Were the Packers blitzing and gambling on INT's too much last year? Any thoughts?

Our pass rush is a lot better this year, Rouse is gone, Bush is surprisingly not getting burned whenever he is out there, but I think it's that its year 2 in the defense and people are getting more comfortable with it.