Interesting Odds Regarding Jennings

[ThunderDan]

I just got back from Vegas and saw an interesting prop bet. It was for most receiving yards for the season. Greg Jennings was 25-1 to lead the league. I was very tempted to put $10 down but didn't. What does everyone else think about that prop bet?

By the way Larry Fitzgerald's odds were the smallest meaning he was most likely to lead the league in receiving yards. That without Warner at QB seemed like a horrible bet.

[Bretsky]

I just got back from Vegas and saw an interesting prop bet. It was for most receiving yards for the season. Greg Jennings was 25-1 to lead the league. I was very tempted to put $10 down but didn't. What does everyone else think about that prop bet?

By the way Larry Fitzgerald's odds were the smallest meaning he was most likely to lead the league in receiving yards. That without Warner at QB seemed like a horrible bet.


Not a bad bet; only thing that hurts that as we watched last year go down was the emergency of J Finley.

But if you lay down 20 you get $500 back.

Completely agree on Fitz; I'm not sure who a good bet for the leader is but I could see Fitz numbers being solid but not great this year with a new QB

[ND72]

I just got back from Vegas and saw an interesting prop bet. It was for most receiving yards for the season. Greg Jennings was 25-1 to lead the league. I was very tempted to put $10 down but didn't. What does everyone else think about that prop bet?

By the way Larry Fitzgerald's odds were the smallest meaning he was most likely to lead the league in receiving yards. That without Warner at QB seemed like a horrible bet.


Not a bad bet; only thing that hurts that as we watched last year go down was the emergency of J Finley.

But if you lay down 20 you get $500 back.

Completely agree on Fitz; I'm not sure who a good bet for the leader is but I could see Fitz numbers being solid but not great this year with a new QB

actually I am the complete opposite...I think Fitz could have huge numbers this year. Leinart (or whoever) could rely heavily on Fitz this season.

[Scott Campbell]

GB has too many targets for Jennings to get the most yards in the league.

[cheesner]

Fitz may be up because Q is gone, but I think Warner being gone will have a bigger effect.

I would have thought Andre Johnson would have been the favorite. He has been at the top or close to it, the last 3 years.

[Tarlam!]

I have my eye on Megatron and Crabtree if Smith gets some OL protection from his new interior.

[The Leaper]

I like Jennings and all...but leading the league in reception yardage?

It takes 1500 yards these days to earn that title. That usually means you also have to grab 90+ passes. Jennings has yet to crack the 1292 yard mark...or the 80 catch mark. He was 15th in league last year.

Granted, this looks to be a down year on the receiver front in terms of returning talent in position to put up monster numbers. However, the Packers have lots of receiving options and try to spread the ball around. Finley is emerging...Jones and Nelson still get some catches...we've got a new rookie TE who is a pass catcher. I also think the Packers will try to find a way to get the RBs more involved this year as well.

Add it up...and I'd be shocked if Jennings did better than 80/1200. He's a very good receiver...but not a dominating one.

[The Leaper]

I would have thought Andre Johnson would have been the favorite. He has been at the top or close to it, the last 3 years.

He ran away with it last year...and is very likely to be top 3 again this year. If he isn't the guy with the best odds...I'd be betting on him.

[mission]

15th in the league but 25-1 odds...

from a poker standpoint, the implied odds of a win should make a small bet a +ev (expected value) move.

that said, i guess it's not a "he will win once out of 25 seasons" as he *could* NEVER lead the league.

edit - so i guess im wrong :)