swede
08-08-2010, 02:08 PM
I am on a mission to remain calm as we get ready to embark upon another pre-season.
We know that the pre-season itself is valuable to the coaching staff and to new players trying to grab one of the last roster spots, and it can even be helpful to veterans learning new schemes. But the wins and losses in pre-season mean very, very little as you already know.
You already know it. I already know it. The team already knows it. And yet we get a little nervous when we can’t seem to win a pre-season game. And we get a little puffy when we win three of four. We can’t get any puffier than that because the Packers haven’t gone 4-0 in the pre-season anytime in this last decade. We haven’t gone winless either, so there you go.
I was left alone today for six hours without a “honeydo” list. I decided to employ that time by preparing Chicken a la Riesling and researching NFL pre-season statisitics while my breasts were marinating.
Well…while the chicken breasts were marinating.
Super Bowl Champions over the last five years have a combined pre-season record of 12-8. Super Bowl runner-ups have a combined preseason record of 9-11. Significant? Probably not.
Five of the most successful NFL teams in the last ten years are anything but dominant in the pre-season The Colts, with 115 wins in the last decade, are an underwhelming 19-21 in pre-season contests. The Patriots with 113 regular season wins are doing a bit better in the early contests with a record of 22-18, probably due to superior reconnaissance and a well-organized department of clandestine operations. The Steelers also have 22 pre-season wins, the Packers have 19, and the Eagles, with the third best regular season record in football over the last ten years have only won a pathetic 15 pre-season contests.
Looking inside the numbers a bit we find some interesting regressions to the mean. The Patriots went 4-0 in the pre-season of 2003 and went on to win a Super Bowl. Then they only managed to win one pre-season game in 2004…and went on to win the Super Bowl.
The Colts went winless in the pre-season of 2005 and sucked so bad that won 14 regular season games and then lost in the post-season to the Steelers…who went on to win the Super Bowl. Then the Colts DID win 4 pre-season games in 2006…and went on to win the Super Bowl over the Bears. Did I mention that the team that got beat in the Super Bowl that year was the Bears? The Bears went 2-2 in the pre-season the year that they lost to the Colts in the Super Bowl.
But what about the perennial doormats? The Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions, like the Packers and Colts, are 19-21 in the pre-season over the last ten years, The Lions have the unique distinction of having won five more pre-season games in 2008 and 2009 than they did regular season games. You may remember that the Kitties followed up a blistering 4-0 march through the pre-season of 2008 with an unprecedented winless slog through 16 games. They did not go on to win the Super Bowl.
So fellow rats, let us be prepared to win somewhere between one and three preseason games this year. Whatever. Somebody is going to win the Super Bowl this year and that team’s pre-season record will be absolutely meaningless in the big picture.
If you’ll pardon me I have some breasts to rub down with oil and wine. And I need to take the chicken out of the oven, too.
We know that the pre-season itself is valuable to the coaching staff and to new players trying to grab one of the last roster spots, and it can even be helpful to veterans learning new schemes. But the wins and losses in pre-season mean very, very little as you already know.
You already know it. I already know it. The team already knows it. And yet we get a little nervous when we can’t seem to win a pre-season game. And we get a little puffy when we win three of four. We can’t get any puffier than that because the Packers haven’t gone 4-0 in the pre-season anytime in this last decade. We haven’t gone winless either, so there you go.
I was left alone today for six hours without a “honeydo” list. I decided to employ that time by preparing Chicken a la Riesling and researching NFL pre-season statisitics while my breasts were marinating.
Well…while the chicken breasts were marinating.
Super Bowl Champions over the last five years have a combined pre-season record of 12-8. Super Bowl runner-ups have a combined preseason record of 9-11. Significant? Probably not.
Five of the most successful NFL teams in the last ten years are anything but dominant in the pre-season The Colts, with 115 wins in the last decade, are an underwhelming 19-21 in pre-season contests. The Patriots with 113 regular season wins are doing a bit better in the early contests with a record of 22-18, probably due to superior reconnaissance and a well-organized department of clandestine operations. The Steelers also have 22 pre-season wins, the Packers have 19, and the Eagles, with the third best regular season record in football over the last ten years have only won a pathetic 15 pre-season contests.
Looking inside the numbers a bit we find some interesting regressions to the mean. The Patriots went 4-0 in the pre-season of 2003 and went on to win a Super Bowl. Then they only managed to win one pre-season game in 2004…and went on to win the Super Bowl.
The Colts went winless in the pre-season of 2005 and sucked so bad that won 14 regular season games and then lost in the post-season to the Steelers…who went on to win the Super Bowl. Then the Colts DID win 4 pre-season games in 2006…and went on to win the Super Bowl over the Bears. Did I mention that the team that got beat in the Super Bowl that year was the Bears? The Bears went 2-2 in the pre-season the year that they lost to the Colts in the Super Bowl.
But what about the perennial doormats? The Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions, like the Packers and Colts, are 19-21 in the pre-season over the last ten years, The Lions have the unique distinction of having won five more pre-season games in 2008 and 2009 than they did regular season games. You may remember that the Kitties followed up a blistering 4-0 march through the pre-season of 2008 with an unprecedented winless slog through 16 games. They did not go on to win the Super Bowl.
So fellow rats, let us be prepared to win somewhere between one and three preseason games this year. Whatever. Somebody is going to win the Super Bowl this year and that team’s pre-season record will be absolutely meaningless in the big picture.
If you’ll pardon me I have some breasts to rub down with oil and wine. And I need to take the chicken out of the oven, too.