Odds of making a play at QB

[RashanGary]

What decision, over time, do you guys think pays off more than the other?



It's 2nd and 7. QB gets to the line with plenty of time. The defense shows a look that could be one of a couple things depending on how they have it disguised. If they do one thing, his first option is the X receiver. If they do another thing after the snap, his last option would be the X receiver, so it would completely change.

However, Finley is in the slot and no matter what defense they are running, Finley at worst is going to have tight single coverage on a matchup you like. According to the rules of the offense, Finley wouldn't be the first look in either case.


What do you do? Do you take your best guess at what defense they're running and go through the natural progression in that scenario? If you're wrong, you probably end up holding it, going through other progressions and several types of breakdowns could happen. Do you decide to go with what you know and throw a ball into Finley, who you know is a superstar and has a great chance of making the catch on single coverage even if it's tight?

[RashanGary]

This is one small issue I have with Aaron Rodgers. He's seemed intent on making sure every throw is to the most open player by having a great understanding of how to attack each type of defense.

In theory, it sounds wonderful, but you never know, for sure, what defense the other team is running unless you're Tom Brady and the cheaters. Sometimes you have a lot of study tape and you can be reasonably sure a defense is going to play a certain way, but some coordinators are tricky. They'll break tendancies just to confuse opponents, especially in big games.


I think there is some value in trusting your best players a little more than you trust the other players. Instead of gambling that you "know " what defense they're running, I think when there is question, it would be better to just line up with your best guys against their guys and out execute them.

I'd argue we have a better chance throwing to Finley against just about any single coverage that's not Charles Woodson or Darrell Revis. If you get to the line and there's some doubt, instead of trying to be perfect out there, just be effective and get it to your best guy.



Good idea, no?

[RashanGary]

But then there is the other side of it. A guy like Brett Favre, has made a living playing that style of ball. Instead of being ultra smart, he focuses on executing what he knows. He throws to his best guys, even when they're covered and he's made a HOF career out of it.

Problem with doing that every time, when you get in the playoffs against the most well oiled defenses each year, they know your tendency too. They'll jump your best guys route and you'll be sitting there with egg on your face.


There's a mix somewhere, staying upredictable. . . . We'll see how it goes. He has a HOF type start to his career. I'm sure he knows a little better than I do. It's just a thought.

[retailguy]

and the debate rages on...

[vince]

Either way, the odds of Aaron Rodgers making a play are pretty good.

Thus far in about a half-game of play, he's had 24 pass attempts, 20 completions (83.3%) for 275 yards (11.5 ypa), 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 154 QB Rating.

Not bad.