Scouting Report on the Bears

[Bossman641]

Not sure how much of the Bears you all have watched, but being the resident IL rat I will try to fill you in on what I have seen from them. I haven't watched them as much as in the past, but here goes.

Surprisingly, Cutler has played really well. He is spreading the ball around nicely and hasn't been making the dumb throws he was making last year. He really likes to throw the ball to Forte, part of that due to the fact that he has been under heavy pressure. It hasn't just been dump offs though. Forte has run a lot of routes down the field and they have split him out as a WR as well.

The Bears are definitely weak on the OL. The Lions were getting pretty good pressure on Cutler in week 1, and that continued in week 2. I honestly thought the Cowboys were going to knock him out of the game early on. The first 3-4 drives, he was taking shot after shot. Their LT, Chris Williams, got knocked out of the game but I haven't heard his status yet today. Surprisingly, the Bears played much better once he left. They shuffled the OL and Martz moved to a quick passing game. The Bears run game has been pretty much non-existent. Similar to the Philly game, I expect to see Capers play a lot of nickel with Chillar in order to match up against the Bears 3 WR and Olsen. Cutler will again need to get rid of the ball quickly because I see no way their OL can slow down CM3 and co. It wouldn't shock me at all to see Collins or Woodson step in front of a few balls. I don't think Cutler will have the time to let the WR's run double moves, but they do like to take their shots deep with Hester and Knox.

Defensively, they have been playing well. Their front 4 has been very impressive stopping the run. Also, they don't have the sacks to show it, but their pressure has been decent. Unlike last year when Lovie went all out on blitzing, he has really dialed it back and relied mostly on the front 4. Matchup to watch is definitely Bulaga (if he starts) vs Peppers. Ultimately, I think Rodgers will be able to throw on the Bears, but they have been very opportunisitic in creating turnovers. Tillman in particular is right up there with Woodson in terms of poking the ball loose.

The Packers will not be able to afford playing a 2nd quarter like they did yesterday. Something about playing the Bears always scares me. I think it is memories of Favre's multiple turnover games playing against that cover 2. Lovie always seemed to have a good scheme to stop him. As long as Rodgers and the O takes care of the ball I see a close win (27-24). Bears fans right now are cautiously optimistic. It's time to put them back in their place.

[red]

this should be a great game. we don't get too many games where both our teams are good at the same time

[steve823]

Good write up. Always like a good read like this.

It seems like the NFC north has gotten a LOT better this year. Lions are looking like an actual NFL team, Bears are looking like they might give us a run for the division, and you can't underestimate the Vikings it's only week 2.

On a side note, is it Monday night yet?

[ThunderDan]

Good write up. Always like a good read like this.

It seems like the NFC north has gotten a LOT better this year. Lions are looking like an actual NFL team, Bears are looking like they might give us a run for the division, and you can't underestimate the Vikings it's only week 2.

On a side note, is it Monday night yet?

Why, yes it is!!! :lol:

[denverYooper]

Nice writeup Bossman.

Agree with you on Collins/Woodson (maybe Burnett) being able to grab and INT or 2. Although our secondary is much maligned, they are a fair piece better than what Cutler has seen so far.

I'm glad the Bears are frisky right now. I think that means the Pack will come out and play their best football of the year.

[Tony Oday]

I can see Forte running wild...

[MadScientist]

Nice writeup Bossman.

Agree with you on Collins/Woodson (maybe Burnett) being able to grab and INT or 2. Although our secondary is much maligned, they are a fair piece better than what Cutler has seen so far.

I'm glad the Bears are frisky right now. I think that means the Pack will come out and play their best football of the year.

I know Detroit is weak, but is Dallas really that bad?

[Bossman641]

I can see Forte running wild...

I would really be shocked. The Packer running game has looked like a powerhouse compared to the Bears running game. He has been much more dangerous catching passes.

[mission]

I can see Forte running wild...

Because so many running backs have done exactly that against Capers' defense... :roll:

[denverYooper]

Nice writeup Bossman.

Agree with you on Collins/Woodson (maybe Burnett) being able to grab and INT or 2. Although our secondary is much maligned, they are a fair piece better than what Cutler has seen so far.

I'm glad the Bears are frisky right now. I think that means the Pack will come out and play their best football of the year.

I know Detroit is weak, but is Dallas really that bad?

You're right. They're usually decent against regular receivers but have had a hard time with receiving TEs/RBs. The Bears make a lot of hay there, a matchup that favors their offense. We've been pretty good there (Wood was a big help covering receiving TEs) and better against RBs.

Football Outsiders (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/statistics/team-defense/2009) shows us being #3 against TE and #7 against RB receiving in 2009. Dallas, otoh, is ranked 27 and 24, respectively.

Full disclosure though... I didn't watch the game really and was thinking of the 39 yard TD to Olsen in an empty midfield. I just perused the gamebook and some highlights and the the main story on the day looked to be turnovers by the Cowboys and a few big plays by the Bears. The Bears were 1-11 on third down.

[Tony Oday]

I can see Forte running wild...

Because so many running backs have done exactly that against Capers' defense... :roll:

I am sorry let me rephrase "run". I think he will only get 50-60 yards but I think he will break some screens for 20+

[Bossman641]

Full disclosure though... I didn't watch the game really and was thinking of the 39 yard TD to Olsen in an empty midfield. I just perused the gamebook and some highlights and the the main story on the day looked to be turnovers by the Cowboys and a few big plays by the Bears. The Bears were 1-11 on third down.

The turnovers were the story of the day but I was also impressed by the way Chicago completely shut down the Dallas running game and really impressed by the adjustments Martz/Tice made after they had to reshuffle the OL.

Tackling will be important on Monday as there were a few plays where Chicago got significant YAC. I think the Bears offense plays better on the fake grass though as they are all smaller and shifty.

One other thing, the Bear safeties were bringin the wood yesterday. Only rushing 4, they were able to sit back and react. This is a game where Finley's ability to draw attention will be huge.

[mission]

I can see Forte running wild...

Because so many running backs have done exactly that against Capers' defense... :roll:

I am sorry let me rephrase "run". I think he will only get 50-60 yards but I think he will break some screens for 20+

That could very well be.

[Fritz]

Full disclosure though... I didn't watch the game really and was thinking of the 39 yard TD to Olsen in an empty midfield. I just perused the gamebook and some highlights and the the main story on the day looked to be turnovers by the Cowboys and a few big plays by the Bears. The Bears were 1-11 on third down.

The turnovers were the story of the day but I was also impressed by the way Chicago completely shut down the Dallas running game and really impressed by the adjustments Martz/Tice made after they had to reshuffle the OL.

Tackling will be important on Monday as there were a few plays where Chicago got significant YAC. I think the Bears offense plays better on the fake grass though as they are all smaller and shitty.

One other thing, the Bear safeties were bringin the wood yesterday. Only rushing 4, they were able to sit back and react. This is a game where Finley's ability to draw attention will be huge.

Fixed.

[3irty1]

The Bears are definitely the team to beat for us in the division. Martz finally seems to have hooked up with the right set of guys. I think the key to stopping this offense will be to be overly physical. Its a soft soft scheme with soft soft personnel. If I were capers I'd play lots of man to man this week with press coverage. It probably means starting Pat Lee or Jarrett Bush but we've got the personnel.

On defense the Bears should have learned from the last two weeks and come up with a game plan to keep Finley double covered. This should mean easy fronts to run on, less blitzes than the Bears usually call, and single coverage on Jennings for some explosive plays. I look for James Jones to have another good day after his last showing in Buffalo.

In 2007 we were in a similar bind running-game-wise. This first Bears game McCarthy committed to the run primarily with DeShawn Wynn and had some success there. That was also the first flashes we saw out of Grant. We should have a similar opportunity to get the ground game going this week in Chi.

[CaliforniaCheez]

Cutler is going to go for the throat of Sam Shields. Watch them run multiple receivers through his zone attempting to get him to go with one and leave the other open.

Chillar and Barnett on Olsen is an important match up.

If the D can get Cutler rattled early with pressure and an INT success will come.

Rodgers might get 75 yards rushing (before the kneel downs).

[Pugger]

It is always a battle with Chicago no matter what their record is. It appears they are playing much better so winning this game is going to be a daunting task. To get out of there with a W we have to continue to play well on ST, protect Rodgers' backside, not turn the ball over and let CM3 and friends get after Cutlet.

[Tony Oday]

Cutler is going to go for the throat of Sam Shields. Watch them run multiple receivers through his zone attempting to get him to go with one and leave the other open.

Chillar and Barnett on Olsen is an important match up.

If the D can get Cutler rattled early with pressure and an INT success will come.

Rodgers might get 75 yards rushing (before the kneel downs).

So Sam Shields gets 3 picks and defensive player of the week?

[mmmdk]

Chicago might not be Super Bowl contenders but Bears are rock solid and healthy again. Their playmakers are back on track early in the season and the offense ain't killing themselves.

It's Bear week - my favorite matchup 'cos it oozes with history and it's the greatest rivalry in NFL.

[denverYooper]

Cutler is going to go for the throat of Sam Shields. Watch them run multiple receivers through his zone attempting to get him to go with one and leave the other open.

Chillar and Barnett on Olsen is an important match up.

If the D can get Cutler rattled early with pressure and an INT success will come.

Rodgers might get 75 yards rushing (before the kneel downs).

So Sam Shields gets 3 picks and defensive player of the week?

I have a feeling that if Shields get tested he might get beat a couple of times but will make a play or 2 also. I like having his speed out there this week.

[Bossman641]

Scouts Inc take on the game. I'll post the advanced scouting report later in the week.


1. The Packers must utilize their wide-open offense early: At 2-0, Chicago's got a lot of confidence. This game is at Soldier Field. If they come out quickly, the crowd will become a factor. Green Bay's clear superiority here is the vertical passing game. If the Packers script the first dozen or so plays with a heavy dose of passes, it could take the air of the Bears early.

2. Green Bay must continue to run the football: With Ryan Grant out for the season, Brandon Jackson became the main back. In Week 2 against the Buffalo Bills, the Packers had only 91 yards on the ground. It wasn't overly impressive, but the mere threat of the run will keep a defense honest and open up play-action opportunities. Aaron Rodgers is very strong in that facet of being a QB. If he can get Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher and company to bite, it could be a long night for the Bears.

3. Will the Packers show us a lot of nickel coverages? Chicago is not going to try to jam the run down their throats, so the Packers may have the luxury of giving Jay Cutler a lot of looks to figure out.

4. The value of the Bears' Cover 2: It's hard to throw the deep ball against a Cover 2, especially if the safety can get to the outside. Rodgers has the skills -- and the weapons -- to throw the deep out, although we haven't seen a ton of it in Weeks 1 and 2. The Bears' base defensive scheme could prevent it again.

5. Matchup to watch: Green Bay TE Jermichael Finley vs. Urlacher: Finley is an excellent vertical receiver; he does a terrific job on the seam route and really puts pressure on the safeties. If the Bears play a lot of Cover 2, Rodgers will lure the safeties outside to free up the deep middle of the field. Then it's all Finley vs. Urlacher. Urlacher is still elite -- one of the best at covering TEs in the NFL -- but can he win this matchup consistently without help over the top?

6. Mike Martz needs to throw the screen and check-downs: Martz has two good receiving backs in Matt Forte and Chester Taylor, and heavy blitz defenses leave big holes on the second level. The screen play has become a staple of this offense and if the Packers continue to attack on defense, it could be an effective weapon.

7. Look at Cutler's steps on the dropback: In the early parts of the Week 2 game, Cutler was getting destroyed by the Dallas rush. Mike Martz and OL coach Mike Tice made some adjustments -- going to shorter three and five-step drops -- and he got the ball out quicker and started being effective. The Packers have a good defense and can get after the QB (see the next point), so Cutler needs to be getting the ball out to someone very fast.

8. The Bears must figure out a way to stop OLB Clay Matthews: Matthews is on a 48-sack pace this season! Obviously, the Bears will game plan for him and try some double teams, but that is easier said than done because the coaches move him all around the formation -- to not only avoid those double teams, but also to find good one-on-one matchups. His pressure is relentless.

9. The Bears must play better on third down, on both sides of the ball: Even though the win against Dallas was nice, the Bears were 1-for-11 on third downs. That probably won't cut it against Green Bay.

10. Matchup to watch: Green Bay LT Bryan Bulaga versus Chicago RDE Julius Peppers: Bulaga moved to LT in Week 2 to replace an ailing Chad Clifton and fared well -- but he is a rookie. He has good movement skills, but Peppers is a veteran with a variety of moves who has looked good this year so far. Bulaga must protect Rodgers' backside.



Prediction
Green Bay 27
Chicago 14

[mission]

The Bears don't even beat the Lions and then they're 1 for 11 on 3rd down against Dallas?

I know it's a division game and anything can happen, but if we're a legitimate SB contender, we should win this game by at least 10 points. I'm not calling a massive blowout, just a good solid win that's never questioned.

The Bears are not for real and exactly what we expected them to be. They just happen to have a 2-0 record right now.

[RashanGary]

The Bears don't even beat the Lions and then they're 1 for 11 on 3rd down against Dallas?

I know it's a division game and anything can happen, but if we're a legitimate SB contender, we should win this game by at least 10 points. I'm not calling a massive blowout, just a good solid win that's never questioned.

The Bears are not for real and exactly what we expected them to be. They just happen to have a 2-0 record right now.

I don't think the Bears are as good as we are, but they have Urlacher and Peppers right now. Both players they didn't have last year. Cutler has had a great start to the season.

This is no gimme game, but if I had to wager, I'd bet on the Packer. We just have more talent and less holes. We should win this one.

[Gunakor]

I like our chances with #5. Jermismatch Finley would win that battle no matter who the opposition decides to have covering him. Any opposition. He's uncoverable without safety help IMO. Even if it's a healthy Urlacher.

As far as #10 goes, has MM indicated who will be starting at LT against Chicago yet? Last I heard, if Clifton was okay to go he would be the starter, but no official decision had been made yet. The analysis given in #10 assumes that BB would certainly be the starter. TBH, I hope Clifton is good to go. I have my concerns about a rookie making his first NFL start against a beast like Julius Peppers. I have a feeling that Clifton at 80% would be more effective in that role than Bulaga would be at 100%.

[Lurker64]

As far as #10 goes, has MM indicated who will be starting at LT against Chicago yet? .

Unbalanced line! Bulaga as tackle-eligible!

[denverYooper]

CHTV's opposition research article. (http://cheeseheadtv.com/nfl/chicago-bears-green-bay-packers-fantasy-analysis).

Meaty.