Aaron Rodgers Deep Ball

[channtheman]

Okay, without looking up statistics on Rodgers deep throws (I'll let Patler take care of that :D) does it seem like perhaps Rodgers is quite overrated on his deep ball? All I've heard for the past 2 years is that he has the best deep ball in the league, but he often overthrows his receivers on the really long passes around 50 yards. He did it twice in the playoff game with Jennings and I've noticed he's done it this year a few times as well already. Rodgers seems to have pinpoint accuracy on the 30 yard passes like the TD to Jennings against Philly in week 1 but it appears his deep ball is drastically overrated. Thoughts?

[mission]

In the poker world, we say that you always remember the times that your pocket Aces loses to A5 when 234 shows up on the board but you never remember all the times that AA holds up for the win.

It's the same thing here. You gave a few examples of him missing down field but there are dozens of examples where he completely nails the throw. Those plays don't stick out as much. He's starting a little slow this year but I don't anticipate it being a problem.


edit (3 mins later) -- aaaaaand im out of the tournament with my AA losing to 66 with a 6 coming on the river!! dammit! :x

[Packman_26]

I disagree.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/chicago-bears/09000d5d8129ca81/Aaron-Rodgers-Highlight-WK-01-vs-Bears-2009

http://www.nfl.com/videos/detroit-lions/09000d5d80db9a86

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos/09000d5d8157c89f

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsBUL67cyYE&feature=related

I could go on.....

[HarveyWallbangers]

Disagree strongly. I don't know if he's the best in the league, but he has to be top three in the league on deep balls.

[Gunakor]

I first started hearing about how pretty Rodgers' deep ball was not from fans or media, but from the players themselves. They seem to love it.

No QB is gonna be 100% at a distance of 50 yards. It's a very low percentage throw. Sure, Rodgers misses those from time to time. Everybody does.

You can't just pick out the ones he misses on and say it's overrated without offering a comparison to other quarterbacks in the NFL. I'm sure Rodgers would stand toe to toe with just about anybody in the league today.

[RashanGary]

Throws that distance are of the highest difficulty level so, yeah, he's going to be better at 30 yards and better yet at 10. Same as you would.

Saying he's top 3 in the league at deep balls isn't to say he's better at deep throws than he is at intermediate throws. It's relative to the league. Relative to other QB's, Rodgers throws an absolute beautiful deep ball by my impression.

It's similar to Patler's breakdown on Crosby. Crosby is like 40 or 50% from 50 or longer, but many kickers can't even make it that far. Compared to Robbie Gould's 40-50 yarders, Crosby's 50+ sucks, but it's more about he difficulty than pure percentage. Patler made a post that compared apples to apples. I don't ahve stats, I just have impression, but I think Rodgers throws a great deep ball.

[pbmax]

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/player/aaron-rodgers/splits/299897


split comp att pct yds yds/att td int sck sckyds rtg rush yds avg td
Pass Behind Line 6 8 75 24 3.0 0 0 0 0 77 0 0 0 0
Pass 1-10 yds 20 27 74 171 6.3 2 0 0 0 115 0 0 0 0
Pass 11-20 yds 9 17 53 154 9.1 0 1 0 0 59 0 0 0 0
Pass 21-30 yds 2 6 33 62 10.3 1 1 0 0 73 0 0 0 0
Pass 31-40 yds 1 1 100 32 32.0 1 0 0 0 158 0 0 0 0
Pass 41+ yds 0 1 0 0 .0 0 0 0 0 40 0 0 0 0

[MichiganPackerFan]

I think there was a lot more focus on the short and mid passing game this year in order to get the ball out faster and avoid the sacks. Long passes take longer to develop and means your O-Line has to protect that much longer. I've thing the short and mid field is being used much more efficiently and I anticipate that will open up some bigger plays.

[Pugger]

He may not connect on every long pass but they are still a thing of beauty to see sailing thru the air.

[RashanGary]

That's an impressive split. 30-40 yards beyond the line of scrimmage is usually 35-50 yards in the air. Those are deep. His line is amazing.

Impression holds up in this case.

[3irty1]

? That's only one pass. We need splits from last year.

[HarveyWallbangers]

? That's only one pass. We need splits from last year.

That's what I thought.
:D

[Fritz]

Oh...sorry. I thought the name of this thread was "Aaron Rodgers Balls Deep."

No comment, then.

[MichiganPackerFan]

Oh...sorry. I thought the name of this thread was "Aaron Rodgers Balls Deep."

No comment, then.

I keep doing that double take myself

[pbmax]

I don't know of any free site that hands out splits for length of throws for past years. Yahoo does do splits for past years, career and 3 year avg. but they don't do length of throw. If anyone has one, I would like to see the numbers.

[pack4to84]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/splits?playerId=8439&sYear=2009
but they don't have 40+ or 50+ only 30+

Pass Att. 31+ 62 97 685 63.9 7.06 37 6 1 0.0 101.1

[pbmax]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/splits?playerId=8439&sYear=2009
but they don't have 40+ or 50+ only 30+

Pass Att. 31+ 62 97 685 63.9 7.06 37 6 1 0.0 101.1
That's not yardage. That is number of attempts in a game.

[CaptainKickass]

Call me Captain Context, but what a gay sounding thread.

Talking about Rodgers Deep Balls and his sacks.

I mean c'mon gang. Can't we all just bring things down to a slightly more juvenile level?



:lol:

[DannoMac21]

Those two throws into the net from training camp should say enough.

When you overthrow receivers on a deep ball, it's not entirely the QB's fault. Who knows if the receiver slowed down, got gassed/held, etc...

[pack4to84]

Doh!
2009
Pass Thrown: 41+ yds. 4 18 218 22.2 12.11 68 0 1 0.0 54.4 0 0 0.0 0 0
Pass Thrown: 31-40 yds. 5 13 219 38.5 16.85 50 2 1 0.0 93.8 0 0 0.0 0 0

[bobblehead]

The only QB I can recall throwing the long ball better was Jeff Blake. Some guys have a gift of timing and Rodgers is one of them. BF was in a league of his own at zipping a 15 yard laser past 4 defenders and breaking his recievers fingers with pinpoint accuracy....Arod is the nuts when it comes to the deep pass. Just my 2 cents.

[packerbacker1234]

AR seems to have some "slight" accuracy problems on 2 to 10 yard pass - in terms of when he zips it. He isn't nearly as good on the shorter zip passes as say, Favre was. That is what made Favre such an amazing slant thrower, and Rodgers just doesn't have that short zip accuracy. However, 15 to 30 yards, the guys arm accuracy is gold. 30+, he appears to be better than most int he league.

[HarveyWallbangers]

AR seems to have some "slight" accuracy problems on 2 to 10 yard pass - in terms of when he zips it. He isn't nearly as good on the shorter zip passes as say, Favre was. That is what made Favre such an amazing slant thrower, and Rodgers just doesn't have that short zip accuracy. However, 15 to 30 yards, the guys arm accuracy is gold. 30+, he appears to be better than most int he league.

"isn't nearly as good" is an exaggeration, but Favre was better than Rodgers on those. Favre was A+. Rodgers is A-. Rodgers has all of the tools. He just needs longevity, experience, and one Super Bowl ring. I'd take Super Bowl rings and little experience or longevity though.
:D

[packerbacker1234]

AR seems to have some "slight" accuracy problems on 2 to 10 yard pass - in terms of when he zips it. He isn't nearly as good on the shorter zip passes as say, Favre was. That is what made Favre such an amazing slant thrower, and Rodgers just doesn't have that short zip accuracy. However, 15 to 30 yards, the guys arm accuracy is gold. 30+, he appears to be better than most int he league.

"isn't nearly as good" is an exaggeration, but Favre was better than Rodgers on those. Favre was A+. Rodgers is A-. Rodgers has all of the tools. He just needs longevity, experience, and one Super Bowl ring. I'd take Super Bowl rings and little experience or longevity though.
:D

Have you not been watching any football this season? Rodgers has been consistently miss his targets 2 to 10 yards when he zips it, and only seemingly able to hit them when he takes a bit off it.

I was not exagerating, I simply watch him play. Guy is fucking golden after 12 or so yards, but before that he does have SOME accuracy problems. If you recall, the slant play seemingly dissapeared from this offense for long stretches the last two years - and after watching rodgers through two games this year, I can see why.

[pbmax]

AR seems to have some "slight" accuracy problems on 2 to 10 yard pass - in terms of when he zips it. He isn't nearly as good on the shorter zip passes as say, Favre was. That is what made Favre such an amazing slant thrower, and Rodgers just doesn't have that short zip accuracy. However, 15 to 30 yards, the guys arm accuracy is gold. 30+, he appears to be better than most int he league.

"isn't nearly as good" is an exaggeration, but Favre was better than Rodgers on those. Favre was A+. Rodgers is A-. Rodgers has all of the tools. He just needs longevity, experience, and one Super Bowl ring. I'd take Super Bowl rings and little experience or longevity though.
:D

Have you not been watching any football this season? Rodgers has been consistently miss his targets 2 to 10 yards when he zips it, and only seemingly able to hit them when he takes a bit off it.

I was not exagerating, I simply watch him play. Guy is fucking golden after 12 or so yards, but before that he does have SOME accuracy problems. If you recall, the slant play seemingly dissapeared from this offense for long stretches the last two years - and after watching rodgers through two games this year, I can see why.
But does he really miss that many at that distance, even if you have identified the problem?

He is 26 of 35 (74%) on throws behind the line of scrimmage to 10 yards past it this year. He is not bouncing many off the heads of the receivers. I think you have locked on to specific instances in games where his accuracy has been questionable (which we have seen) and extended that experience to the whole of 2 games.

He has had more trouble at intermediate distance so far. 11-30 yards, his completion percentage is awful this year. At that distance, he is 11 of 23 (47.8 %).