Playoff Probabilities

[HarveyWallbangers]

Interesting read. If we go 3-3 and finish at 10-6, there's a 40% chance that we won't make the playoffs. If we go 4-2 and finish at 11-5, there's a 97% chance that we will make the playoffs.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/packerswhatif.html

Interestingly, we have a higher probability of making the playoffs than the Bears (despite them holding the tiebreaker at the moment)--in large part because we play them at home and are probably favored to switch that home field advantage.

The probability ratings show that we'll win the NFC North, but get the #3 seed and host the Bears in the playoffs.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfcstandings.html

1 Atlanta
2 Philadelphia

6 Chicago at 3 Green Bay
5 New Orleans at 4 Seattle

Tampa Bay finishes #7 and NY Giants finishes #8.

If we beat the Bears, we'd then travel to Philadelphia.

[Fred's Slacks]

Interesting. It says we could finish 8-8 and still have a tiny chance (< 1%) for a first round bye.

[channtheman]

I would NOT want to beat the Bears and then play them again the next week. Enough of losing in the playoffs to the team we just beat.


Interesting. It says we could finish 8-8 and still have a tiny chance (< 1%) for a first round bye.

:lol: Wouldn't that be something?

[Badgerinmaine]

It would be something that would seemingly require the retirement to become a monk by half of the Falcons, Giants, Bears, Eagles and a few others. :-)

[Badgerinmaine]

(snip) Interestingly, we have a higher probability of making the playoffs than the Bears (despite them holding the tiebreaker at the moment)--in large part because we play them at home and are probably favored to switch that home field advantage.

That's probably it, because their schedules are extremely similar. The record of the Bears' future opponents so far this season is 35-25; the packers' future opponents are 34-26. Both play at Detroit, and both play the Patriots, too. The Jets-Bears game in Week 16 could have some really interesting implications in both conferences.

[Fosco33]

I like our chances for a 2 seed.

Bears have 2 - 3 wins left. Pack will win NFCN.

Eagles have an inspired Cowboy team twice.

[superfan]

The evil fan in me enjoys seeing the Vikings at <1% across the board.

Nice find.

[Brando19]

Here's my prediction (based on remaining schedule):

1. Philadelphia
2. Green Bay

6. Chicago @ 3. Atlanta
5. New Orleans @ 4. St. Louis (I think Seattle blows it down the stretch)

[Guiness]

Here's my prediction (based on remaining schedule):

1. Philadelphia
2. Green Bay

6. Chicago @ 3. Atlanta
5. New Orleans @ 4. St. Louis (I think Seattle blows it down the stretch)

Chicago in and NYG out? Not so sure about that, but things are bad in the big apple.

St-Louis in...*sigh*

[CaptainKickass]

1 Atlanta
2 Philadelphia

6 Chicago at 3 Green Bay
5 New Orleans at 4 Seattle

Tampa Bay finishes #7 and NY Giants finishes #8.

If we beat the Bears, we'd then travel to Philadelphia.

I saw this and as a gut reaction said "Fuck, if Seattle actually makes the playoffs, I bet we'll host 'em at Lambeau again"

[sheepshead]

I dont think the Bears will hold up. That last game will be a non issue. The wild card doesnt come out of the NFC North. Just a prediction based on Chicago's personnel.

[bobblehead]

Pack goes 5-1 the rest of the way....you heatd it here first. No one is playing better right now. Chiily and wade got the wrong matchup at the wrong time.

[Fred's Slacks]

I understand the whole division winners get in thing, it makes sense but when you have a division as bad as the west it really makes me question how a team like Seattle or St Louis can host a playoff game at maybe 8-8? They need to institute a minimum of 9 wins to get the top 4 spots. Unless of course only 3 teams have more than 9 wins. I don't know, I like the system they have but I think it needs one small tweak like this to make it a little better. Can you imagine we (or someone else) could finish 11-5 and not get in. Mean while Seattle or St Louis gets to host a game? Rediculous.

[channtheman]

I understand the whole division winners get in thing, it makes sense but when you have a division as bad as the west it really makes me question how a team like Seattle or St Louis can host a playoff game at maybe 8-8? They need to institute a minimum of 9 wins to get the top 4 spots. Unless of course only 3 teams have more than 9 wins. I don't know, I like the system they have but I think it needs one small tweak like this to make it a little better. Can you imagine we (or someone else) could finish 11-5 and not get in. Mean while Seattle or St Louis gets to host a game? Rediculous.

The easy solution is that every division winner is guaranteed a playoff spot, but not necessarily a home game. They are still seeded 1-6 based on record and other applicable tiebreakers.

[Tarlam!]

The easy solution is that every division winner is guaranteed a playoff spot, but not necessarily a home game. They are still seeded 1-6 based on record and other applicable tiebreakers.


I like it. Make it so, Roger!

[gbgary]

here's one guys scenario for us to have the 1st seed...

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/The-absurdly-premature-2010-playoff-picture-Wee;_ylt=AhsLyTQa4e9UHMwwF.ui019DubYF?urn=nfl-289002

[channtheman]

here's one guys scenario for us to have the 1st seed...

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/The-absurdly-premature-2010-playoff-picture-Wee;_ylt=AhsLyTQa4e9UHMwwF.ui019DubYF?urn=nfl-289002

I'm pretty sure that guy is wrong when he says the Bears lead the league in point differential. I thought that I had been hearing that WE are leading the league in that.

[Fritz]

Well, both teams have allowed the same number of points, but the Pack has scored more...

Still, lots of people are dissing da Bears, yet they are 7-3. You can talk all you want about how good they look or don't look, but they are 7-3.

[Brando19]

Chicago in and NYG out? Not so sure about that, but things are bad in the big apple.

St-Louis in...*sigh*

Are you still sighing over my St Louis pick? They're now tied with Seattle for the NFC West.

[Guiness]

Not laughing...more like shaking my head.

Franchise doesn't deserve a thing - if you know much about the franchise in it's current incarnation, you'd know they make Detroit look like a well oiled machine. Georgia Frontiere, the owner until her death in 2008, knew and cared nothing for football. She inherited the team from her husband. It was a pure cash cow for her, and she put nothing into it, and was the one who left the LA area. She didn't deserve the winning team that fell onto her lap when Martz was there.

Her son runs it now, and I have to admit I don't know what sort of an owner he's like.

[Brando19]

Yes I've read about that franchise. But that doesn't mean the players don't deserve to do well. St Louis has a gem in Sam Bradford and he will be a top 5 QB within 6-7 years.

[retailguy]

Not laughing...more like shaking my head.

Franchise doesn't deserve a thing - if you know much about the franchise in it's current incarnation, you'd know they make Detroit look like a well oiled machine. Georgia Frontiere, the owner until her death in 2008, knew and cared nothing for football. She inherited the team from her husband. It was a pure cash cow for her, and she put nothing into it, and was the one who left the LA area. She didn't deserve the winning team that fell onto her lap when Martz was there.

Her son runs it now, and I have to admit I don't know what sort of an owner he's like.

The Rosenbloom's sold their interest in the team to Stan Kroenke in August. Kroenke was a minority owner and now owns the whole team. I don't believe that Chip Rosenbloom is still running the team in any manner today.

[MichiganPackerFan]

That's probably it, because their schedules are extremely similar. The record of the Bears' future opponents so far this season is 35-25; the packers' future opponents are 34-26. Both play at Detroit, and both play the Patriots, too. The Jets-Bears game in Week 16 could have some really interesting implications in both conferences.

Since the league realigned, the schedules have been very similar for members in the same division.
Each division plays the other three teams in its own division home and away - 6 games
Each division plays every team in another conference division (two home, two away) every three years resulting in playing each conference team home and away every six years (this year NFC East) - 4 games
Each division plays every team in another NON-conference division (two home, two away) every FOUR years resulting in playing each conference team home and away every EIGHT years (this year AFC East) - 2 games
The last two games are against the teams who finished in the same place in their respective conference divisions in the prior year that are not already scheduled (NFC South #2 and NFC West #2)

THEREFORE the Packers & Bears have 12 games with identical opponents (NFC North x 2, NFC East & AFC East), 2 more against each other and the last 2 against teams based prior year standings (Packers v Atlanta & SanFran, Bears v Panthers & Seahawks)

Notable scheduling advantages, Bears play Jets, Patriots, Eagles at home, Packers play all three on the road; Bears get Carolina, Packers get Atlanta in Atlanta)

[Joemailman]

I have a question regarding tie-breakers for division. It is entirely possible the Bears and Packers could end up tied through the first 4 tie-breakers (See below). The 5th tie-breaker is Strength Of Victory. What is that? Is it point differential in games where a team is victorious? Is it won/loss record of teams you beat? Is it something else?

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss

[Airin' Rodgers]

Joe,

Definition: A part of the NFL's tiebreaking procedure, strength of victory is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten.

[Joemailman]

Thanks! That would mean the Packers win over the Jets would be huge if the Bears don't beat them. Also the games the Packers and Bears play against the Patriots would be important.

[Airin' Rodgers]

I calculated this quick. for now:

The Bears SOV would be 32-56
The Packers SOV would be 31-46.

For now, it would seem the packers have the advantage, but the Bears obviously have one more win.

Remaining on the schedule for GB are

3-7 San Fran -- This will change tonight since they are the Monday game
2-9 Detroit
9-2 New England
7-4 New York Giants
8-3 Chicago

Remaining on the schedule for Chicago are

2-9 Detroit
9-2 New England
4-7 Minnesota
9-2 New York
7-4 Green Bay

The packers would look to have the SOV advantage if it came down to that. Right now, the bears are one win ahead of the packers, but have won one more game. The packers future opponents have 29 wins and the bears opponents have 31 wins, as of now. Since the Packers have to win one more game that the bears over the last 5 to force a tie, that would result in more "victories" for Packer opponents.

Bottom line is, the packers should get the SOV tiebreaker, assuming it comes to that, barring a weird finish where the Bears beat the Jets and Pats but lose to the Lions and Vikings.

I think I just confused even myself

[MichiganPackerFan]

I calculated this quick. for now:

The Bears SOV would be 32-56
The Packers SOV would be 31-46.



if the bye weeks are over, how are the totals 9 games off?

[Joemailman]

if the bye weeks are over, how are the totals 9 games off?

They're 11 games off, which makes sense since the Bears have 1 more win. :!:

[MichiganPackerFan]

They're 11 games off, which makes sense since the Bears have 1 more win. :!:

ok

[Guiness]

The Rosenbloom's sold their interest in the team to Stan Kroenke in August. Kroenke was a minority owner and now owns the whole team. I don't believe that Chip Rosenbloom is still running the team in any manner today.

I didn't know that latest news - I mostly knew the history around the time they left LA, and then her passing the team on to her son. I looked into it a bit over my surprise from the Warner/Falk/Martz 'lightning in a bottle' year that fell onto that team's lap. I couldn't believe that year, and wanted to see how they built it...then realized it was a Keystone Cops moment where everything just fell into place due to no fault of their own.

I don't know what Kroenke's like, if he has an actual interest in football it would certainly bode well for the franchise.