Geeks Pick Packers at 7-9

[HarveyWallbangers]

I find this interesting.

'Geeks' have Packers finishing 7-9
By Bob Wolfley

The Green Bay Packers will finish 7-9 this season, according to the 2006 "Pro Football Prospectus," which uses a variety of theories and statistical methods to arrive at its predictions.

"We get tagged sometimes as the football stat geeks," author Aaron Schatz writes. "We're not stat geeks. We're philosophy geeks."

The football philosophy geeks say the Packers have a 30% chance of finishing with seven or eight victories, in the category of mediocre teams.

According to its analysis, the Packers have a 11% chance of winning at least 11 games and being a Super Bowl contender, a 21% chance of winning nine or 10 games and being a playoff contender, a 24% chance of being a bad team with five or six victories and a 14% chance of being among the worst teams in the National Football League.

"Pro Football Prospectus" contends that the Packers have the second-easiest schedule in the league, again based on its formula for measuring strength of teams. The only team it thinks has an easier schedule is another one in the NFC North division, the Chicago Bears.

In charting the game-by-game performance of cornerback Al Harris, the book comes to call him "the NFL's quietest shutdown corner."

It cited Harris' good performances against the top receivers in the league, including Carolina's Steve Smith, Detroit's Roy Williams, Pittsburgh's Hines Ward and Cincinnati's Chad Johnson.

Using a formula it calls "success rate," the Prospectus says that although Harris was phenomenal in the first five weeks of the season, he was less successful as the season progressed.

"Harris just can't last the whole season doing it alone," Prospectus writes. "The most important issue facing the Packers is how quickly second-year free safety Nick Collins can develop."

[HarveyWallbangers]

From this morning's practice:

Another 2-minute score
Brett Favre led another successful two-minute drill during the morning practice. With the offense trailing 10-9 and two timeouts left, Favre used two passes to Donald Driver, one to Jennings and two runs by Samkon Gado to get into field-goal range.

Favre used a timeout after each Gado run, the second coming with 3 seconds left. Billy Cundiff then came on to hit a 44-yard field goal as the clock ran out.

"You can't do enough two-minute," McCarthy said. "It's a situation that probably 40 percent of your games a year come down to. You just have to keep working at it."

[swede]

Hmmm...7-9... I think that's pretty close. Less than that would make me sad.

My guess is 9-7 and all arrows start pointing up like a Ron Jeremy woody if we manage to beat the Bears in week one. That would be a tremendous psychological boost to this young team.

[MadtownPacker]

if we manage to beat the Bears in week one
I say winning week 1 makes the season. By makes the season I mean win the division. The bears had it like Burger King last season (their way). Things fell in place for them.

Things fell apart for the Pack. IF the O can get going I feel the D will do their part which hasnt been the case before last year. 2004s O with 2005s D would have been a strong team. Now they have to hope to be a good team. Beating the bears week 1 makes them a good team for that week. They might keep believing they are a good team for the rest of the season.

All the "geeks" will be up late that Sunday week 1 editing their picks.

[swede]

Agreed Madtown. The national talking heads I hear are saying that the Bears are a lock to win 11 games and 13 is once again a possibility.

STFU! :evil:

The Bears are going to have a hard time winning four games in the NFC North like everyone else. They have a very good defense and a running game suddenly without Cedric because of a shoulder injury.

[MJZiggy]

Does anyone have any idea of how accurate these guys have been in the past? The pundits prognosticate all the time and at the end of the season Easterbrook tracks how far off they all were (very far off), but I never heard anything about these guys or PFW, or PFT for that matter.

[Partial]

Agreed Madtown. The national talking heads I hear are saying that the Bears are a lock to win 11 games and 13 is once again a possibility.

STFU! :evil:

The Bears are going to have a hard time winning four games in the NFC North like everyone else. They have a very good defense and a running game suddenly without Cedric because of a shoulder injury.

We must not neglect the fact they didn't lose anyone, and only added players. I think Griese is good enough to get the job done when Grossman goes down. Also, Benson didn't play very much last year and they were effective in the running game.

[pack4to84]

Looks like the bears lost there Fb Bryan Johnson's for the season. That would be a big lost for a running team like the bears.

[mraynrand]

"According to its analysis, the Packers have a 11% chance of winning at least 11 games and being a Super Bowl contender"

There's also a 1 in 1,000,000 chance that Lauren Holly will end up with Jim Carey (Dumb and Dumber)
-----

"So you're saying.... There's a chance!"

[mmmdk]

A 7-9 record sounds fairly plausible. Now, I agree 100% with MadTown that the week 1 game vs. the Bears is paramount. A win over the Bears would help a ton; I can't wait for all the homers to hail the Packers. I just believe that a win vs the Bears would help the Packers reach those 7 wins...yep, that's what I think - the Pack is getting back but realistically it's 5-9 win season we're looking at. Oh, and if the Packers lose in week 1 vs the Bears then it'll be a hooting contest and TT/McCarthy bashing time.

[Terry]

I'm with Swede - I think it'll be 9-7, give or take one game.

[packrulz]

From this morning's practice:

Another 2-minute score
Brett Favre led another successful two-minute drill during the morning practice. With the offense trailing 10-9 and two timeouts left, Favre used two passes to Donald Driver, one to Jennings and two runs by Samkon Gado to get into field-goal range.

Favre used a timeout after each Gado run, the second coming with 3 seconds left. Billy Cundiff then came on to hit a 44-yard field goal as the clock ran out.

"You can't do enough two-minute," McCarthy said. "It's a situation that probably 40 percent of your games a year come down to. You just have to keep working at it."

That's more like it, I hope Billy Cundiff finds his stroke. Is BJ Sander still holding on kicks? That might help him make the team.

[MJZiggy]

Ryan is first team holder, I think BJ might be second team holder.

[TheRaven]

7-9 would be a pretty good season IMO. Naturally, I am hoping for much better, but with this much young talent and an inexperienced new head coach, a 3 game improvement would be a great first step.

[Creepy]

Last year they had the either the Vikings or Gb winningthe division, with the Vikings being hailed as a SB contending team. They had the Lions pretty much working into a 3d place team of possibly 4th. The Bears were listed pretty much at the bottom.

Heck, over 3/4s of the people on this forum didn't have GB going 4-12 last year or the Bears winning the division. For the most part, this division sucked and the Bears were the only team to try and win it. After 8 weeks GB was only 2 games out of first place and had only 1 win. The NFc North is wide open this year, and the team that commits the fewest turnovers and wins the most division games will win it.

[HarveyWallbangers]

The computer can't project injuries like the Packers and Eagles got.

[test]

I've said 8-8 would be a good year for this roster. Anything above that is icing on the cake.

[Patler]

I've said 8-8 would be a good year for this roster. Anything above that is icing on the cake.

I hate to say it, but 8-8 would be an acceptable record, if the team looks like it is going up.

When they line up for game 1 in 2006, they could have 12 starters different from those that started the last game of the 2004 season. Throw in a new punter and a new kicker, and its quite a turnover with only one intervening season.

I should also mention a new coaching staff and new GM when compared to 2004. Heck, there is even a new team President!

[test]

That's not settling for average either. That's being realistic about rebuilding because no matter if anyone wants to admit it, that's exactly what we're doing.

I think the real challenge will be when Favre does retire. But my gut says he'll be around next year if we hit at least 8-8 and look decent along the way. He'll get those juices flowing and want to go for the ring one more time.

If we crap out, well then look for him to ride off.

But I don't want to turn this into a Favre retirement thread.

[MJZiggy]

It's training camp, I'm still being a homer 'cause I like what I'm seeing and hearing and they're improving continually. M3 is running a tight ship and seems to be really gaining the respect of his players. I'll stand by the 10-6 that I posted in another thread.

[Patler]

I agree, about the team and Favre.

It's pretty hard not to see GB as rebuilding with the huge roster turnover, and turnover in starters. If you can rebuild half the starting lineup and play 8-8 football, you've done well.

[MJZiggy]

But why am I so less nervous about this season than I was last season? I watched the first game last year peeking through the fingers covering my eyes. This year I'm very excited and can't wait to see them get on the field and start tearing things up. (Bears, specifically).

[Patler]

But why am I so less nervous about this season than I was last season? I watched the first game last year peeking through the fingers covering my eyes. This year I'm very excited and can't wait to see them get on the field and start tearing things up. (Bears, specifically).

Because there are lots of young, unproven players that you feel good about.
Gado, Jennings, Colledge, Spitz, Hawk, Hodge, Underwood, Poppinga. To some extent also Wells (back to his natural position) and Collins (how far can he rise?). Even Ryan, the punter. New veterans with solid backgrounds and/or potential like Pickett and Woodson, to some extent Allen and Manual. Throw in Taylor and there is the hope that the team has been strengthened in many areas.

Last year the feeling was just the opposite. We knew the team would be weaker in some areas, the question was how much. The only newcomer that raised much interest was Collins.

[Bretsky]

That's not settling for average either. That's being realistic about rebuilding because no matter if anyone wants to admit it, that's exactly what we're doing.

I think the real challenge will be when Favre does retire. But my gut says he'll be around next year if we hit at least 8-8 and look decent along the way. He'll get those juices flowing and want to go for the ring one more time.

If we crap out, well then look for him to ride off.

But I don't want to turn this into a Favre retirement thread.

I agree, 8-8 would be a success in the rebuilding project. What will make the season interesting is the schedule is a lot easier at the beginning and with all those young faces it will be an even greater challenge to MM. We need to start out solid.

If we finish well, I could still see Favre coming back and making one more playoff run if TT makes some good offseason moves with all the money he will have available. I'm still a bit disappointed he didn't create more waves early in the process this year and we still remain over 7MIL below the cap, but we'll be in very good shape next year if TT decides to spend the $$.

B