Great calls, poor execution

[Patler]

Once again, MM pulls rabbits out of a hate, and comes up with great calls in crucial situations. He crosses up the defense on 3rd or 4th and short, calls deep passes, has guys open, and they either drop the ball (Jennings) or the QB misses them (Rodgers to Jones, Flynn to Jennings).

Can't blame MM. After all, he isn't the one throwing it or catching it. Poor execution by the players.

[Noodle]

Bold stance, Patler. I missed the game, but I read the Offical thread, and the universal view about the 4th down play at the end was "WTF?".

I think what you may miss, my statiscally intoxicated brother, is the difficulty involved in executing the plays you laud. In real life, there is actually some substantial amount of risk involved in trying to complete a long pass play -- disruption in route, disruption in throw, slight miscalculation here or there.

And besides, any FOOTBALL fan gets a rash from the idea that his/her team can't bang out 1.5 friggin yards on the ground in two plays if the whole dang season is on the line.

I mean honestly, if the Pack has to win your way, with gimmicks and surprise, is it really worth it?

What Would Vince Do?

[denverYooper]

Quarless fumbled early when they were getting into a little rhythm and killed a good-looking drive

Jennings flubbed a sure TD and turned it into a TO.

Flynn threw a pick to Levy in the endzone & wiped points off of the board.

[pbmax]

Jennings play was inexcusable. Didn't see Quarless' fumble yet or the 4th down throw.

[Bretsky]

I think you get the first down first; I don't have unlimited faith in my backup QB to make that throw on 4th down. Maybe you give it a wing on 2nd and one but not 4th. Frankly on 3rd and 4th I'd have preferred high % passing plays to just get the first. Screen pass......etc. They had plenty of time. I just don't have that much faith on my backup QB who lacks practice time with the #1's

[bobblehead]

Bold stance, Patler. I missed the game, but I read the Offical thread, and the universal view about the 4th down play at the end was "WTF?".

I think what you may miss, my statiscally intoxicated brother, is the difficulty involved in executing the plays you laud. In real life, there is actually some substantial amount of risk involved in trying to complete a long pass play -- disruption in route, disruption in throw, slight miscalculation here or there.

And besides, any FOOTBALL fan gets a rash from the idea that his/her team can't bang out 1.5 friggin yards on the ground in two plays if the whole dang season is on the line.

I mean honestly, if the Pack has to win your way, with gimmicks and surprise, is it really worth it?

What Would Vince Do?

If that is what the defense is giving you, then you have to execute. Trying to bang it down their throats when they are selling out to stop you is foolish. You get the matchups and you win the matchups....you don't try to win the matchups that aren't there.

[MJZiggy]

What Would Vince Do?

The thought of his post-game reaction gives me shivers.

[pbmax]

I think you get the first down first; I don't have unlimited faith in my backup QB to make that throw on 4th down. Maybe you give it a wing on 2nd and one but not 4th. Frankly on 3rd and 4th I'd have preferred high % passing plays to just get the first. Screen pass......etc. They had plenty of time. I just don't have that much faith on my backup QB who lacks practice time with the #1's

With little running threat, those 3rd and 4th and short quick passes are tough to complete, as the D is playing nothing but those routes. That is why the deep stuff is open every time they come to this situation.

[Bretsky]

With little running threat, those 3rd and 4th and short quick passes are tough to complete, as the D is playing nothing but those routes. That is why the deep stuff is open every time they come to this situation.

There has to be a high % play or two that we had faith in. Certainly higher % than a fly pattern.

[digitaldean]

I see your point Patler.

It is kind of maddening that even w/o Vanden Bosch that the O-line stunk on ice today.

The receiving corps (Quarless, Jennings) and A-Rod made enough mistakes that were the difference in the game. Guess what, that's what the playoffs are like. They will be invariably close games, we HAVE to find a way to win those games. Alas, it may be too little, too late if we don't get some divine intervention in the divisional race.

Suh was a beast and made Wells look just plain awful. Cliffy wasn't much better.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Jennings play was inexcusable. Didn't see Quarless' fumble yet or the 4th down throw.

Quarrles' fumble was simply a good strip. He had it close to his body but simply didn't anticpate the guy coming in for the strip.

Jennings had a step on the 4th down pass, just an overthrown ball.

[mission]

Quarrles' fumble was simply a good strip. He had it close to his body but simply didn't anticpate the guy coming in for the strip.

Jennings had a step on the 4th down pass, just an overthrown ball.

Nope. He had the ball low and literally right before he fumbled, I yelled "don't fumble you dumbass!". It looked inevitable. Did you notice the difference between that play and all his second half catches when getting tackled? He obviously got an earful for being lazy with the ball.

I'm pretty sure Patler doesn't actually think this. You need to play percentages and MM constantly decides to gamble. If he went to the casino he'd play roulette or blackjack where the house has odds to win because it's exciting and doesn't take long.

Also worth noting that a quick score there just means we have to kickoff and give up a long return before a bomb to megatron to win it. MM doesn't think at all about the big picture. He's probably a shitty chess player too.

(I keep looking for my 'mm doesn't have it' thread from a couple years back that I always bump.... can't find it)

[HarveyWallbangers]

I liked the call on 4th down. Flynn just blew it. If he couldn't make that throw, what makes people think he'd make another throw for a game winner. That was about as easy as it comes. I figured before the snap it would have been their best shot to get to the end zone. It was there.

[channtheman]

Before the Queerless fumble I screamed "GO DOWN IDIOT!" and sure enough the fucking moron fumbled. Inexcusable and just another shitty close game where the Packers lose it.

[Patler]

Bold stance, Patler. I missed the game, but I read the Offical thread, and the universal view about the 4th down play at the end was "WTF?".

I think what you may miss, my statiscally intoxicated brother, is the difficulty involved in executing the plays you laud. In real life, there is actually some substantial amount of risk involved in trying to complete a long pass play -- disruption in route, disruption in throw, slight miscalculation here or there.


Go on, Flynn is paid to make those throws, isn't he? It was only a 31 yard throw. He should never miss that indoors in good conditions.

At least....that is what a few had to say a couple days ago when discussing Crosby's missed 52 yard field goal against the Vikings in 2008. I said it was MM's fault, and dumb to run out the clock with just 3 plays in two minutes and settle for a 52 yard field goal attempt. Many of you agreed with me, but some said Crosby is a pro, in doors, and shouldn't have missed, even though all kickers collectively hit 50 yarders at only slightly more than 50%.

If there was no excuse for Crosby missing from 52, there is no excuse for Flynn missing a 31 yard toss.

[Brandon494]

Go on, Flynn is paid to make those throws, isn't he? It was only a 31 yard throw. He should never miss that indoors in good conditions.

At least....that is what a few had to say a couple days ago when discussing Crosby's missed 52 yard field goal against the Vikings in 2008. I said it was MM's fault, and dumb to run out the clock with just 3 plays in two minutes and settle for a 52 yard field goal attempt. Many of you agreed with me, but some said Crosby is a pro, in doors, and shouldn't have missed, even though all kickers collectively hit 50 yarders at only slightly more than 50%.

If there was no excuse for Crosby missing from 52, there is no excuse for Flynn missing a 31 yard toss.

?

[Cheesehead Craig]

Nope. He had the ball low and literally right before he fumbled, I yelled "don't fumble you dumbass!". It looked inevitable. Did you notice the difference between that play and all his second half catches when getting tackled? He obviously got an earful for being lazy with the ball.

I'm pretty sure Patler doesn't actually think this. You need to play percentages and MM constantly decides to gamble. If he went to the casino he'd play roulette or blackjack where the house has odds to win because it's exciting and doesn't take long.

Also worth noting that a quick score there just means we have to kickoff and give up a long return before a bomb to megatron to win it. MM doesn't think at all about the big picture. He's probably a shitty chess player too.

(I keep looking for my 'mm doesn't have it' thread from a couple years back that I always bump.... can't find it)

I'll have to double check the play from the DVR to see if my initial thought holds water.

[Noodle]

On the Crosby kick, Patler, I will agree with you. Expecting guys to hit 50+ yard field goals is absurd. Hope, sure, happy if it happens, yup, but not bumming if it misses because it's a helluva long kick.

Just as it is absurd to put your entire season on the line expceting your backup QB to nail a 31-yard corner route on 4th down. Maybe on 3rd, but not on 4th.

[Patler]

On the Crosby kick, Patler, I will agree with you. Expecting guys to hit 50+ yard field goals is absurd. Hope, sure, happy if it happens, yup, but not bumming if it misses because it's a helluva long kick.

Just as it is absurd to put your entire season on the line expceting your backup QB to nail a 31-yard corner route on 4th down. Maybe on 3rd, but not on 4th.

Yup, I agree. When you need just a few yards, and you have time, tossing up a low percentage throw when the game is on the line defies logic, in my mind. That very well could be a season determining play.

I like a gambler as my play caller - but that was a bit too much of a long shot for the situation, in my mind.

[Joemailman]

From MM's PC:

We had a chance for the big play on the fourth-and-2 and I probably should not have put him in that position. It was the defense we thought we were going to get there and the matchup and we just didn't execute it."

Was that a called play: "Absolutely."

[Patler]

From MM's PC:

We had a chance for the big play on the fourth-and-2 and I probably should not have put him in that position. It was the defense we thought we were going to get there and the matchup and we just didn't execute it."

Was that a called play: "Absolutely."

MM has shown time and time again that he is willing to go for the low percentage long shot, even in critical situations. It has cost him games on several occasions.

BTW - those low percentage long shots aren't always long throws. On several occasions he has almost bullheadedly insisted on running the ball instead of relying on what works well.

In some ways, MM seems to lack confidence in bread and butter plays that they run well. He tries to outsmart rather than outplay the other team. Good teams go to what they do best when they needed it the most.

[Noodle]

Cripes, I don't want to seem like Patler's Boswell, but there is a lot of truth in this statement. Great teams do what they want and don't care if you know it's coming. Zigs will confirm in the 'Skins glory years, they'd run Counter Trey all the way down the field and just kick arse.

This is related to the other post about MM getting his yearly epiphany that an outsized play-book is not the ticket to success.

Do a few things really well. Do them so well that even when you are dog tired in the fourth quarter, you have supreme confidence in your ability to do it right.

And then fire the OL coach.

[LEWCWA]

I think you get the first down first; I don't have unlimited faith in my backup QB to make that throw on 4th down. Maybe you give it a wing on 2nd and one but not 4th. Frankly on 3rd and 4th I'd have preferred high % passing plays to just get the first. Screen pass......etc. They had plenty of time. I just don't have that much faith on my backup QB who lacks practice time with the #1's

Thats the whole idea, on second down they weren't all in trying to stop the short pass. fourth down they were all in. It was a great call and Jennings was wide open. I'll take that chance every time.

[Pugger]

Quarless fumbled early when they were getting into a little rhythm and killed a good-looking drive

Jennings flubbed a sure TD and turned it into a TO.

Flynn threw a pick to Levy in the endzone & wiped points off of the board.

There is the ballgame in a nutshell and why we lost - not playcalling. If we score on all of those opportunities we win with our D giving up just 7 points.

[mmmdk]

Before the Queerless fumble I screamed "GO DOWN IDIOT!" and sure enough the fucking moron fumbled. Inexcusable and just another shitty close game where the Packers lose it.

It's true! I heard it all across the grand herring pond :lol:

[pbmax]

MM has shown time and time again that he is willing to go for the low percentage long shot, even in critical situations. It has cost him games on several occasions.

BTW - those low percentage long shots aren't always long throws. On several occasions he has almost bullheadedly insisted on running the ball instead of relying on what works well.

In some ways, MM seems to lack confidence in bread and butter plays that they run well. He tries to outsmart rather than outplay the other team. Good teams go to what they do best when they needed it the most.

I agree with this assessment of M3. And I don't think he has a complete idea of what he can and cannot do without Grant or Finley.

But what bread and butter plays do they have for 4th and short this year? I would love to hear what has been working.

[mmmdk]

I agree with this assessment of M3. And I don't think he has a complete idea of what he can and cannot do without Grant or Finley.

But what bread and butter plays do they have for 4th and short this year? I would love to hear what has been working.

hmm...one thing that might work would be McCarthy saying: "I'm done!".

[Patler]

I agree with this assessment of M3. And I don't think he has a complete idea of what he can and cannot do without Grant or Finley.

But what bread and butter plays do they have for 4th and short this year? I would love to hear what has been working.

That is the point I raised in another thread. They don't seem to have any, but I'm not sure that that isn't by design. MM seems to cherish variety over execution (no matter what he says). He has no bread and butter plays generally, regardless of the down and distance. I don't think he wants to have plays that he pounds and pounds on until the other team stops them.

Grant has been gone the entire season, Finley for a half-season worth of games. MM hasn't yet figured out what the identity of the team is without them. Every week it seems to be something different.

[mmmdk]

McCarthy is a tinkerer :bang:

[sharpe1027]

Yup, I agree. When you need just a few yards, and you have time, tossing up a low percentage throw when the game is on the line defies logic, in my mind. That very well could be a season determining play.

I like a gambler as my play caller - but that was a bit too much of a long shot for the situation, in my mind.

To be fair, the best way to assess the percentages would be to compare the percentage of the Packers getting a TD in both situations, not just whether or not they convert the 4th down. What's their percentage chance of converting a 4th and 1? 50%? Next, what is there percentage chance of scoring a TD with a first down on the 30 yard line with under 2 minutes and 2 timeouts , your back QB and having only scored 3 points the entire game? A generous 50%? IDK about the accuracy of those percentages, but they would comes out to only 25% chance. The odds of completing a 30 yard pass with the Jennings match-up? I'd say it is probably close to 25%.

[Scott Campbell]

Once again, MM pulls rabbits out of a hate, and comes up with great calls in crucial situations. He crosses up the defense on 3rd or 4th and short, calls deep passes, has guys open, and they either drop the ball (Jennings) or the QB misses them (Rodgers to Jones, Flynn to Jennings).

Can't blame MM. After all, he isn't the one throwing it or catching it. Poor execution by the players.


My issue isn't the play calling, but rather the clock management. They called a timeout shortly before that end zone throw. If you're going to try and get it all at once I'd rather see them keep their TO's and run more clock off.

[Patler]

My issue isn't the play calling, but rather the clock management. They called a timeout shortly before that end zone throw. If you're going to try and get it all at once I'd rather see them keep their TO's and run more clock off.

It would have been scary seeing them kickoff again, wouldn't it? :lol:

[MichiganPackerFan]

Once again, MM pulls rabbits out of a hate, and comes up with great calls in crucial situations. He crosses up the defense on 3rd or 4th and short, calls deep passes, has guys open, and they either drop the ball (Jennings) or the QB misses them (Rodgers to Jones, Flynn to Jennings).

Can't blame MM. After all, he isn't the one throwing it or catching it. Poor execution by the players.

MM explicitly said the opposite in his PC: said he they played shitty and it starts with him. THat's one thing I've always liked about MM: accountability.


...
Jennings had a step on the 4th down pass, just an overthrown ball.

THat ball was not overthrown, it was placed perfectly in his hands. No excuse for not bringing that one in. Jennings should have had that TD cleanly too (although I'm not sure he did NOT : Should have challenged.)

[Scott Campbell]

It would have been scary seeing them kickoff again, wouldn't it? :lol:


Based on previous game experiences yes. But not too bad with the way our D played yesterday. Regardless of how it turned out, we don' t need to be preserving time for the other team's offense.

In general I find clock management criticism to be a lot more fair than play calling criticism.

[denverYooper]

MM explicitly said the opposite in his PC: said he they played shitty and it starts with him. THat's one thing I've always liked about MM: accountability.



THat ball was not overthrown, it was placed perfectly in his hands. No excuse for not bringing that one in. Jennings should have had that TD cleanly too (although I'm not sure he did NOT : Should have challenged.)

I think CC was referring to the last pass? I agree that he should have caught his previous TD opportunity when they settled for the FG. It floated a little but was a catchable ball. He also bonked a slant in the redzone that was not a great pass but was catchable. Those 2 passes weren't great but he had opportunities to make plays on a day that they needed their #1 receiver to do so.

[swede]

Don Hutson makes that catch, goddammit!

[Patler]

Don Hutson makes that catch, goddammit!

...or Carroll Dale from Bart Starr. Starr did that a lot on 3rd and short, with defenses looking for Taylor to carry it.

[Smidgeon]

That is the point I raised in another thread. They don't seem to have any, but I'm not sure that that isn't by design. MM seems to cherish variety over execution (no matter what he says). He has no bread and butter plays generally, regardless of the down and distance. I don't think he wants to have plays that he pounds and pounds on until the other team stops them.

Grant has been gone the entire season, Finley for a half-season worth of games. MM hasn't yet figured out what the identity of the team is without them. Every week it seems to be something different.

For a while there, I thought the bread and butter play was deep sidelines passes to Jones and Jennings. Those seemed to be working well since Finley went out...until today.

[Patler]

For a while there, I thought the bread and butter play was deep sidelines passes to Jones and Jennings. Those seemed to be working well since Finley went out...until today.

Agreed. But for the last few weeks they often seem to misfire on the first one, then hit several after that. He overthrew Jones in an early series yesterday, then they never seemed to comeback to it until Flynn threw one, later in the game.

[MJZiggy]

...or Carroll Dale from Bart Starr. Starr did that a lot on 3rd and short, with defenses looking for Taylor to carry it.


No one was looking for anyone to carry it yesterday.

[pbmax]

Don Hutson makes that catch, goddammit!

Of course, because he was wearing on onion on his belt, which was the style at the time ...

[Bossman641]

To be fair, the best way to assess the percentages would be to compare the percentage of the Packers getting a TD in both situations, not just whether or not they convert the 4th down. What's their percentage chance of converting a 4th and 1? 50%? Next, what is there percentage chance of scoring a TD with a first down on the 30 yard line with under 2 minutes and 2 timeouts , your back QB and having only scored 3 points the entire game? A generous 50%? IDK about the accuracy of those percentages, but they would comes out to only 25% chance. The odds of completing a 30 yard pass with the Jennings match-up? I'd say it is probably close to 25%.

This is more along my line of thinking. I think Flynn had a better chance of making that throw then we did of converting and scoring a TD.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Of course, because he was wearing on onion on his belt, which was the style at the time ...

Was that back in nineteen tickety two?

[Pugger]

I think CC was referring to the last pass? I agree that he should have caught his previous TD opportunity when they settled for the FG. It floated a little but was a catchable ball. He also bonked a slant in the redzone that was not a great pass but was catchable. Those 2 passes weren't great but he had opportunities to make plays on a day that they needed their #1 receiver to do so.

I thought CC was referring to the pass from AR in the first quarter that bounced off Jennings and to the Lion defender...?