Andrew Luck Will Not Enter 2011 Draft

[Joemailman]

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/feed/2011-01/2011-nfl-draft/story/stanfords-andrew-luck-will-not-enter-nfl-draft

Luck was projected as the top pick in the draft. Probably good news for Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker who can now battle it out for the 1st QB chosen.

[3irty1]

Initially I thought this was a huge mistake. Luck will almost certainly lose out on some kind of money this season and will be returning to Stanford to probably play for a new coach. It'll be the right decision though if there is no pro football this year.

[Teamcheez1]

I think it is a mistake for two reasons. First, you never know if you are going to suffer that season ending knee injury or hurt the throwing shoulder. He could suffer a drop on the draft board if this happens.

Second, you can almost guarantee there will be a rookie salary cap regardless of how the CBA pans out. I'm guessing even if he goes first in next year's draft he could leave over $20M on the table.

[bobblehead]

I think it is a mistake for two reasons. First, you never know if you are going to suffer that season ending knee injury or hurt the throwing shoulder. He could suffer a drop on the draft board if this happens.

Second, you can almost guarantee there will be a rookie salary cap regardless of how the CBA pans out. I'm guessing even if he goes first in next year's draft he could leave over $20M on the table.

That cap will be in effect for THIS draft if we have a collective bargaining agreement.

[Lurker64]

That cap will be in effect for THIS draft if we have a collective bargaining agreement.

Yeah, any sort of rookie wage scale is going to be in effect before any of this year's draft picks get signed, provided the CBA is finalized before the 2012 draft.

Guys who wanted to come out and get paid ridiculous amounts of money should have come out last year.

Luck's decision, I think, is motivated based on the fact that he would rather be practicing and preparing for football with his teammates through the spring and summer rather than sitting around on his hands and waiting for labor peace to errupt. Can't say I blame him.

[Tony Oday]

$20 million?! more like $40-$50 guaranteed

This is a terrible move by Luck...one wrong hit and he loses 10s of millions.

[Joemailman]

My understanding is that there won't be any contracts signed until there is a collective bargaining agreement. My guess is he's either concerned there won't be a 2011 NFL season, doesn't want to go to Carolina (doesn't know who the coach will be), or has reason to think Harbaugh is returning to Stanford.

[Lurker64]

$20 million?! more like $40-$50 guaranteed

This is a terrible move by Luck...one wrong hit and he loses 10s of millions.

Under the upcoming CBA the rookie wage scale will most likely pay the #1 overall pick about $15-$20m for 3-4 years. So "10s of millions" would only be possible if you goes undrafted, and "10s" is equated with "20".

[Tony Oday]

Under the upcoming CBA the rookie wage scale will most likely pay the #1 overall pick about $15-$20m for 3-4 years. So "10s of millions" would only be possible if you goes undrafted, and "10s" is equated with "20".

Well until the CBA comes out we will see if they have a rookie pay scale...

[Freak Out]

He'll make his money in the end....I like the fact that he's staying in school. Maybe the Stanford Steaming Manholes can go undefeated next year.

[Lurker64]

Well until the CBA comes out we will see if they have a rookie pay scale...

Considering that the league wants it, the NFLPA wants it, and neither rookies nor agents are represented in any way by either negotiating body, there will be one. It's not even a major point of contention.

The major hangup in CBA negotiations is pretty much exclusively "splitting the pie": owners want to get a bigger piece, but Players don't want to give anything up.

[Joemailman]

Well until the CBA comes out we will see if they have a rookie pay scale...

The CBA expires in March. At that point, all signings come to a standstill. If there is no CBA by the time of the draft, they will hold the draft, but I'm pretty sure no one will be signed. Any contract signed without a CBA would likely be declared invalid once a CBA is agreed to.

[Kiwon]

He'll make his money in the end....I like the fact that he's staying in school. Maybe the Stanford Steaming Manholes can go undefeated next year.

I think Luck should stay if he can get Cam Newton's father to represent him. :-)

Peyton Manning stayed for his senior year and then started as a rookie. At the end of the day, he will get paid and be more prepared for the pros.

[Tony Oday]

I think Luck should stay if he can get Cam Newton's father to represent him. :-)

Peyton Manning stayed for his senior year and then started as a rookie. At the end of the day, he will get paid and be more prepared for the pros.


OR an O lineman is blocked into his knee or a LB on a blitzes hits him and dislocates his shoulder and he drops to the 5th round...just saying.

[pbmax]

Considering that the league wants it, the NFLPA wants it, and neither rookies nor agents are represented in any way by either negotiating body, there will be one. It's not even a major point of contention.

The major hangup in CBA negotiations is pretty much exclusively "splitting the pie": owners want to get a bigger piece, but Players don't want to give anything up.

I agree about the players not caring or thinking its hurting veterans. But i don't think the NFLPA is so cavalier. That is real cash spent on players. To agree to a wage scale for them means some of that money goes away. There is no agreed upon mechanism for that money to be returned to veteran players. Owners aren't just going to hand out bonus checks from the money they save.

Since most teams are paying cash over the cap number each year AND most teams are well below the cap now, there is no automatic mechanism to bring that money to the vets. The only leverage is the salary cap minimum, but only a few teams are near it and no one has trouble evading it.

A rookie wage scale would be a concession to the owners that will cost the players money. Not 100% of it (some owner will still spend more if its in the bank) but most would have no new incentive to extend the payroll. That being said, the truly large numbers only extend to pick 7 or 8 in the first round. So its not a huge number.

And one thing; the same agents who represent draftees also represent veteran players AND many of the NFLPA board. So the agents do have some pull, even if they are not members. Tom Condon represented Upshaw and a lot of first round picks.

[BallHawk]

...or he actually genuinely wants to stay in college and get his diploma. We're talking about a Stanford kid here, this is no James Jones and his 9 ACT score. Gotta respect a kid who isn't counting down the hours til he can cash in. Good for him.

[packrulz]

Wisconsin DE J.J. Watt to enter NFL draft
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS • JANUARY 6, 2011
MADISON — Defensive end J.J. Watt will leave the University of Wisconsin early to enter the NFL draft.

In a letter to Badgers fans posted on a school website, Watt said the decision to forgo his final year of eligibility was one of the most difficult of his life — but his dream is to play in the NFL.

“I will be a Wisconsin Badger for life and am forever grateful for all of the love and support that the fans, administration and community have shown to my family and I during my time in Madison,” Watt said. “I could not have asked for better coaches to play for, better teammates to play alongside, or a better fan base to represent throughout my collegiate career.”

Watt had 21 tackles for loss this season and played a leading role for a team that made it to the Rose Bowl, where the Badgers lost to TCU.

UW coach Bret Bielema said Watt will be missed.

“I talked with multiple people connected with NFL teams on J.J.’s behalf to make sure he had the best information to make an informed decision and one that he was comfortable with,” Bielema said in a statement. “He is a terrific example of what we want our student-athletes to be, both on and off the field, and he will be missed.”

It’s another sign of offseason turnover for the Badgers. Defensive coordinator Dave Doeren was named head coach at Northern Illinois in December, and offensive coordinator Paul Chryst has been linked with an open job at Texas.

Watt thanked his family, friends, teachers, coaches and teammates for their support.

“As I move forward with my life, I will continue to live by the morals and values that have helped to get me where I am today,” Watt said. “I am very excited about the opportunities that lie ahead for both myself and for the JJ Watt Foundation, as we try to spread the message to kids that if you ’Dream Big and Work Hard,’ anything is possible.”

[MichiganPackerFan]

...or he actually genuinely wants to stay in college and get his diploma. We're talking about a Stanford kid here, this is no James Jones and his 9 ACT score. Gotta respect a kid who isn't counting down the hours til he can cash in. Good for him.

probably both, this is a STANFORD education, it's not like leaving Generic State University.

[Patler]

...or he actually genuinely wants to stay in college and get his diploma. We're talking about a Stanford kid here, this is no James Jones and his 9 ACT score. Gotta respect a kid who isn't counting down the hours til he can cash in. Good for him.

I've never quite understood that reasoning. If he really does want to play in the NFL, if he feels he is ready to do it, if his coaches advise that he is ready to make the jump, and if the NFL input is that he would go in the first round, he should declare for the draft now.

It is not a choice between the NFL and a college degree. He can always complete the degree requirements later, while in the NFL or after he is out. The NFL opportunity may never be as great as it is now, an injury or other players ascents next year might change things significantly.

I suspect that for whatever reason he just doesn't feel ready to do it yet, on a personal or emotional basis. That's fine. If he doesn't feel ready to do it, he shouldn't.

[Joemailman]

I'm thinking he figures he can have it all. He can go back to Stanford, compete for the National Championship and the Heisman Trophy, get a degree in Architectural Design at Stanford, and then go into the NFL. The odds that he will suffer a career ending injury playing quarterback are miniscule. Sam Bradford suffered a pretty serious shoulder injury and was still the #1 pick.

[mraynrand]

I've never quite understood that reasoning. If he really does want to play in the NFL, if he feels he is ready to do it, if his coaches advise that he is ready to make the jump, and if the NFL input is that he would go in the first round, he should declare for the draft now.

It is not a choice between the NFL and a college degree. He can always complete the degree requirements later, while in the NFL or after he is out. The NFL opportunity may never be as great as it is now, an injury or other players ascents next year might change things significantly.

I suspect that for whatever reason he just doesn't feel ready to do it yet, on a personal or emotional basis. That's fine. If he doesn't feel ready to do it, he shouldn't.


If he wants to play in the NFL right now, then he probably would. Maybe he just likes being in college and finishing his college career, then go pro. Sure you can always go back and get the degree, but that's a different experience. Maybe he just likes what he has now - a great college experience with peers and teammates his age to whom he can relate, etc.

It's just as easy to say that the NFL opportunity could be worse now; that by coming out early he gets injured playing behind some sucky NFL O-line. Life is a crapshoot to a certain extent.

Your last line seems to be all that really matters.

[Patler]

Your last line seems to be all that really matters.

Which is precisely why I concluded with it! :lol:

My point is just that. They stay in school because they want to play for the National Championship, continuing being a campus god, are intimidated a little by the NFL, whatever.

To stay "to get his degree" just doesn't seem like a legitimate reason, because he doesn't give up the opportunity by going pro. The opportunity to finish at his school will always there. Schools go out of their way to make it happen for their pro-athletes.

[Patler]

The opinions of a few others:

http://ncaafootball.fanhouse.com/2011/01/06/andrew-luck-clearly-isnt-thinking-like-a-stanford-man/?icid=main|netscape|dl11|sec1_lnk3|194040 (http://ncaafootball.fanhouse.com/2011/01/06/andrew-luck-clearly-isnt-thinking-like-a-stanford-man/?icid=main%7Cnetscape%7Cdl11%7Csec1_lnk3%7C194040)

[Lurker64]

Really, I'm of the mind that nobody should ever criticize a redshirt sophomore for going back to school. You get 4 years of eligibility, guys can make a mistake by not stopping after 3, but to rip a guy for not stopping after 2? That's unconscionable to me.

[mraynrand]

Which is precisely why I concluded with it! :lol:

My point is just that. They stay in school because they want to play for the National Championship, continuing being a campus god, are intimidated a little by the NFL, whatever.

To stay "to get his degree" just doesn't seem like a legitimate reason, because he doesn't give up the opportunity by going pro. The opportunity to finish at his school will always there. Schools go out of their way to make it happen for their pro-athletes.


That's a good point about the degree (in isolation). So what happens if Hairball goes Pro or Back to UofM? Who will coach Luck next year?