Packers v Bears: Stats, Weather and Common Sense

[RashanGary]

Packers O -vs- Bears D

Overall Offense -vs- Overall Defense
9th YPG -vs- 9th YPG
10th PPG - vs - 4th PPG

Rushing Offense -vs- Rushing Defense
25th YPC -vs- 5th YPC

Passing Offense -vs- Passing Defense
5th YPG -vs- 20th YPG



Bears O -vs- Packers D

Overall Offense -vs- Overall Defense
30th YPG -vs- 5th YPG
21st PPG -vs- 2nd PPG

Rushing Offense -vs- Rushing Defense
22nd -vs- 18th

Passing Offense -vs- Passing Defense
28th -vs- 5th



Turn Over Margin
Packers +10
Bears +4


Kick Returns -vs- Coverage
Bears 2nd -vs- Packers 29th
Packers 26th -vs- Bears 17th

Punt Returns - vs- Coverage
Bears 23rd -vs- Packers 16th
Packers 9th -vs- Bears 29th


SUMMARY

The Bears win football games with great run defense and dominant return units. Their offense is below average. I'm suprised they won as many games as they did with that type of production. The are playing good football right now. Cutler is starting to find a groove. This is a very solid team, but they're beatable.

The Packers win football games with dominant pass defense, great turn over margin and a very good offense. They are peaking as a team right now. Statistically, it's shocking they haven't won more games. On paper the Packers are the clear favorite.


THE WEATHER

weather.com is predicting 24 degrees and partly cloudy. There is no wind prediction yet, but the average in Chicago this time of year looks like 10-20 MPH winds. The Bears have to be hoping for +20 MPH winds so their strengths will be amplifed and weaknesses hidden. At the same time, the Packers will have their strengths clipped and their weaknesses amplified. Pay attention to the Weather. 30^, with cloudy skys to hold the heat when the sun sets and low winds is ideal.

Good weather 25^+ and < 10 MPH winds and the Packers win convincingly with multiple Cutler picks
Average weather 25^ and 15-20 MPH winds and it's a coin-toss type battle determined by ST's and Turnovers
Bad weather <20^ with 25+ MPH winds and the Bears will slowly kill us by out dueling us on the ground and ST's superiority

Keep your eye on the weather.

NOTES
Tramondous has had a quietly solid year returning punts. The Bears do a bad job covering punts. Maybe we take one back!!

[swede]

Good weather 25^+ and < 10 MPH winds and the Packers win convincingly with multiple Cutler picks
Average weather 25^ and 15-20 MPH winds and it's a coin-toss type battle determined by ST's and Turnovers
Bad weather <20^ with 25+ MPH winds and the Bears will slowly kill us by out dueling us on the ground and ST's superiority

Keep your eye on the weather.


I agree with the implications of varying meteorological conditions as you surmised them. Weather is huge. With the Backdoor Bears' luck it'll be a forty mph gale wind blowing.

[mraynrand]

I agree with the implications of varying meteorological conditions as you surmised them. Weather is huge. With the Backdoor Bears' luck it'll be a forty mph gale wind blowing.


If it happens, so be it. We will Old school them!

http://www.sportsvideodaily.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/1936PACKERS-TitlePic.jpg

[Pugger]

The bares win with ST, defense and turnovers. They wait for you to screw up or they'll strip the ball like they did against us in week 3 when they stripped Jones late in the game. If you don't mess up you can have success like NE did earlier this season.

[get louder at lambeau]

Good stuff, JH. I'm seeing a slightly different forecast on weather.com- high of 21 and 8 mph winds. Of course that will change some.

[denverYooper]

They should probably just deactivate Jones for this one.

/justkidding
/sortof

[swede]

Good stuff, JH. I'm seeing a slightly different forecast on weather.com- high of 21 and 8 mph winds. Of course that will change some.

Maybe your forecast foreshadows that Charles Woodson and Tim Masthay will have big games! Masthay we will definitely need to boom high fair-catch-inducing punts.

[get louder at lambeau]

Maybe your forecast foreshadows that Charles Woodson and Tim Masthay will have big games! Masthay we will definitely need to boom high fair-catch-inducing punts.

That's probably it. I don't know about Masthay though. I kinda liked him not getting his cleats dirty last week.

[gbgary]

i'm hoping for the best weather possible but if we don't get it...it won't matter. it'll be just as windy/cold for them. if it makes us worse, it'll make them worse, and we're the better team by a mile.

[pbmax]

We need to get a hold of one (or more) of those Russian weather generators they tried to develop during the Cold War. Deploy them along the border and hope for a gentle Southeasterly breeze.

[pack4to84]

Stats this season when temperature is below 40:

Rodgers - 65/95 (68.4%), 931 YDS (9.80 YPA), 8 TD, 1 INT, 123.6 RATE

Cutler - 60/114 (52.6%), 729 YDS (6.40 YPA), 6 TD, 6 INT, 68.2 RATE

found this on another forum.

[Packgator]

weather.com is predicting 24 degrees and partly cloudy.

The Weather Channel is now calling for a high of 16.

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USIL0225

[Lurker64]

The Weather Channel is now calling for a high of 16.

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USIL0225

If we post updated weather forecasts every day, we're all going to go crazy. Forecasts aren't anywhere even remotely resembling accurate any further than about 3 days. So we'll have a reasonable idea of the weather by, say, Friday.

[Smeefers]

If we post updated weather forecasts every day, we're all going to go crazy. Forecasts aren't anywhere even remotely resembling accurate any further than about 3 days. So we'll have a reasonable idea of the weather by, say, Friday.

Robble robble robble! Go crazy? Don't mind if I do! Still a high of 16, with a 10% chance of percep.

[RashanGary]

16* with low wind. We can still pass in that. I'd qualify that as so/so weather for us. Starks has that running style similar to Grant's that can prosper in slippery conditions. Rodgers can still pass. Some will be dropped. . . . If we can keep the wind down and bring the temp up a few degrees by Sunday I'll feel pretty good.

[mraynrand]

16* with low wind. We can still pass in that. I'd qualify that as so/so weather for us. Starks has that running style similar to Grant's that can prosper in slippery conditions. Rodgers can still pass. Some will be dropped. . . . If we can keep the wind down and bring the temp up a few degrees by Sunday I'll feel pretty good.


Maybe we could get all the Packer fans attending to load up on beans this week. That could help raise the temp at the stadium several degrees and the odor would appease the Bears fans.

[Packers4Glory]

They are saying this cold front moving in could linger into sunday....plus the field conditions will likely slow down both teams as usual in chicago. A slow field will affect us more than them as they don't have the fast playmakers on offense like we do.

[Little Whiskey]

I think the problem is more of a field issue and less of a weather issue. that turf is crap! even in good weather that field sucks! I've heard that heinz field is a close second as regards to it's shitty-ness. this weekend the NFL is showcasing its two worse fields in the league! I can't believe the bears were bitching about playing at the University of MN the week the humpty dump dumped. the field they play on is equally as bad! the NFL should make them replace that crappy surface.

however, NE found a way to pass all over the bears in shitty weather on that shitty field. I think the packers can do the same

[denverYooper]

They are saying this cold front moving in could linger into sunday....plus the field conditions will likely slow down both teams as usual in chicago. A slow field will affect us more than them as they don't have the fast playmakers on offense like we do.

It has affected their defense though. They've been giving up more points at home at the end of the season.

[denverYooper]

FO Love for Rodgers's game last week: (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2011/quick-reads-divisional-round)



Was Rodgers's performance better than the numbers? Perhaps. The numbers don't see how he makes the plays, and not all plays are created equally. How many third downs did Rodgers convert after ducking a free pass rusher, only to scramble out of the pocket and hit his receiver in stride? Rodgers had better numbers as a passer whilst scrambling than anyone outside of Michael Vick this year. Of course, he didn't always need to scramble. Rodgers converted seven of the first eight third downs he faced, and the only one he didn't get was the one where Greg Jennings fumbled after 30 yards, which is hardly Rodgers's fault.


Cutler:


You'll note that more than half of Cutler's DYAR came as a rusher, thanks to five runs that produced three first downs and two touchdowns. He also had great passing numbers as a scrambler this year. Cutler started his day with the best throw he made all game, the touchdown pass to Greg Olsen up the seam against the Lawyer Milloy statue. Otherwise? Blech. The near-interception in the end zone was a truly awful decision (produced in part by Johnny Knox's route), but Cutler had at least two other plays that saw him attempt to throw the ball away by tossing it vaguely in the direction of a receiver. After a 26-yard screen to Matt Forte in the second quarter, Cutler went nine dropbacks without a first down, with two sacks and five incompletions in the process.

[mraynrand]

It's hard to truly evaluate Cutler in that game. It was essentially a scrimmage. I've seen the Washington Generals put up a better fight against the Globe Trotters than Seattle v. Chicago.

[Packers4Glory]

FO Love for Rodgers's game last week: (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2011/quick-reads-divisional-round)



Cutler:

I was at the bears game, and Cutler's play was still uneven. For his first playoff game it was pretty good, but there were things in his play that gives me hope we can stymie his ass in a big game. The Seahawks defense is really awful.

[RashanGary]

21*
5mph winds

The latest forecast is looking better. 27* with low winds would be ideal. We could chuck the rock around the joint in those conditions.

[denverYooper]

I'll do what I can to send in good weather from Denver. I'll head up to the NREL wind farm and and see if I can use the big turbines to select the weather headed toward Chicago. They might let me; it's pretty close to the Rocky Flats Packers Bar.

[mraynrand]

21*
5mph winds

The latest forecast is looking better. 27* with low winds would be ideal. We could chuck the rock around the joint in those conditions.

JH, you are cracking me up with the weather report. I expect you to be up in the helicopter doing traffic on the 8s next!:smile: Keep up the good work.

P.S. Nice original post...

[RashanGary]

Thanks, and my post on Favre sucked :)

I'm equally emotional but opposite to those I oppose. Call it tardershia. For ever tard, there is another tard equal and opposite.

[Guiness]

16* with low wind. We can still pass in that. I'd qualify that as so/so weather for us. Starks has that running style similar to Grant's that can prosper in slippery conditions. Rodgers can still pass. Some will be dropped. . . . If we can keep the wind down and bring the temp up a few degrees by Sunday I'll feel pretty good.

we? How are we going to do that? Got some ideas? lol

[superfan]

Punt Returns - vs- Coverage
Bears 23rd -vs- Packers 16th
Packers 9th -vs- Bears 29th

Distinct advantage for GB in punting and returning punts. Considering the Bears hold a distinct advantage in kickoff returns and coverage, the game plan should be to avoid kicking and returning kicks whenever possible. Which also means avoiding scoring FGs and TDs. Punt whenever possible. Take a knee when in the opposing red zone. Reintroduce the Quick Kick - punting before 4th down.

Prediction - GB 8, Bears 0

4 safeties, 1 per quarter, is the difference.

[Freak Out]

How are the Packers favored over the Bears at Chicago? Horrid field and potentially brutal weather considering the time of year surely pushes the line to Chicago's side even if it's just a hair.

[mraynrand]

How are the Packers favored over the Bears at Chicago? Horrid field and potentially brutal weather considering the time of year surely pushes the line to Chicago's side even if it's just a hair.


It's all based on betting. Got to keep equal bets on both sides of the line - either outcome, the Bookies always win!

[mmmdk]

How are the Packers favored over the Bears at Chicago? Horrid field and potentially brutal weather considering the time of year surely pushes the line to Chicago's side even if it's just a hair.

Lovie's gonna use this as extra motivation for his players - all week long! Hate that fact!

[swede]

Lovie's gonna use this as extra motivation for his players - all week long! Hate that fact!

Yeah, I was thinking that also, but gollyfrickingdammit--how much more motivation can two teams have?

Disrespecting the Bears by making them underdogs might be additional motivation, but that volume is already cranked up to 11. At this point maybe it will just blow out their system and the entire defense will be ejected for tearing out James Jones spleen and eating it with their helmets off.

[mmmdk]

Yeah, I was thinking that also, but gollyfrickingdammit--how much more motivation can two teams have?

Disrespecting the Bears by making them underdogs might be additional motivation, but that volume is already cranked up to 11. At this point maybe it will just blow out their system and the entire defense will be ejected for tearing out James Jones spleen and eating it with their helmets off.

....I've had such tasty feelings for bad James Jones at times. Yet in sheer joy, last saturday, I wanted to donate my other spleen to good James Jones...we've got two spleens right!? :wink: I kid[ney] you not!

[swede]

I'm pretty sure that the usual allotment is one spleen per person, but I have three kidneys (really I do) so nature plays the occasional trick.

[mmmdk]

I'm pretty sure that the usual allotment is one spleen per person, but I have three kidneys (really I do) so nature plays the occasional trick.

One spleen per persona...what made you think I thought we had more? :eek: :D

[RashanGary]

24d
5 mph wind


Looking good for Sunday. Dems good passing conditions. 24 is a little cold, but with no wind, they should be able to toss it around. I would think the cruddy field hurts pass rush and defensive footing as much or more than it does WR footing. WR's know where they're going.

[Bossman641]

Terry McAulay, he of the 18 penalty game, is the referee for Sunday. Let's hope we get more of a fair shake this time.

[Jimx29]

The only thing that matters is rattle cutler once and he's done for the day. We should have no problem getting 2-3 interceptions, most which will come in the 2nd half

[RashanGary]

Two great defenses. Points are going to be hard to come by. Every turn over, kick return and punt return is going to be amplified. Hopefully the Packers can play a pretty clean game in those areas. If they do, our offense should be able to get more going than theirs does. 17-13 Packers.