wow. lots of talk about the running games

[Packers4Glory]

and the thought is chicago is so much better running the ball

GB 1606 yards 3.8/carry. chicago 1616 yards 3.9/carry


hmm

[denverYooper]

Atlanta was supposed to win because of their run game, too.

[Joemailman]

First game between the 2 teams, neither team had a running game. Second game, Forte had some success, running for 91 yards. Stopping him will be one of the keys to the game.

[OS PA]

Atlanta was supposed to win because of their run game, too.

They also had the best WR in the league, a Hall of Fame TE, a pro-bowl kick returner, and a pro-bowl quarterback. Bears have a 1000 yard wide receiver, a tight-end, the best punt returner ever, and a risk taking, strong armed, solid quarterback.

[Brandon494]

Supposely Forte has averaged 5.0 yards per carry the last 7 games. He also had 8 catches in the last game of the season. Hopefully having Jenkins play this time will help the run defense.

[Packers4Glory]

having whats left of the D line healthy is going to help a lot. I think we've kinda seen that since Jenkins came back.

[gbgary]

and the thought is chicago is so much better running the ball

GB 1606 yards 3.8/carry. chicago 1616 yards 3.9/carry


hmm

didn't realize it was that freakin' close.

[Packers4Glory]

didn't realize it was that freakin' close.

me either. I was bored at work waiting on someone so I was on FB arguing w/ bear fans on the "national F**k the Packers week page and did a little research on ESPN's stats page and saw that. Then said bears fan said Tuner sucked all season, atlanta is a passing team, and Forte is better and since he had a good game vs the jets the bears will win.

[pbmax]

Supposely Forte has averaged 5.0 yards per carry the last 7 games. He also had 8 catches in the last game of the season. Hopefully having Jenkins play this time will help the run defense.

Jenkins was getting shoved around versus Atlanta. Hopefully, he is still getting his sea legs back.

[Freak Out]

The Bear run game scares me a little....that and Hester.

[Waldo]

Supposely Forte has averaged 5.0 yards per carry the last 7 games. He also had 8 catches in the last game of the season. Hopefully having Jenkins play this time will help the run defense.

Who cares.

When GB tries to stop the run, they stuff it. Dom plays nickel even against run personnel. They aren't actually trying to run, they are trying to "keep the defense honest" to set up PA. Dom is dishonest. GB played more nickel in '10 than any other team, by a huge margin. And GB was the best team against PA passing. By a huge margin. Runs don't gash GB for explosive plays that set up scores. They make 2nd/3rd down manageable, that about it. Dom runs the ultimate white elephant D. GB is one of the best in the league at stuffing short yardage runs (#2), one of the best in the league at not allowing TD's, and well above average at not allowing first downs via the run. Odd for a team that is one of the league's worst at YPA. LOL.

[Guiness]

Welcome back Waldo.

Any conversation about our running game this season is moot. I'm surprised we gained 1600 yards on the ground this season. Having Starks changes everything.

[MadtownPacker]

Who cares.

When GB tries to stop the run, they stuff it. Dom plays nickel even against run personnel. They aren't actually trying to run, they are trying to "keep the defense honest" to set up PA. Dom is dishonest. GB played more nickel in '10 than any other team, by a huge margin. And GB was the best team against PA passing. By a huge margin. Runs don't gash GB for explosive plays that set up scores. They make 2nd/3rd down manageable, that about it. Dom runs the ultimate white elephant D. GB is one of the best in the league at stuffing short yardage runs (#2), one of the best in the league at not allowing TD's, and well above average at not allowing first downs via the run. Odd for a team that is one of the league's worst at YPA. LOL.
Damn I never thought about that. DCap is a ruthless mofo.

The #2 ranking is cool but not surprising cuz it does seem like the opposing offenses on 3rd & short gets stopped most of the time. Gives the kind of confidence that make you wanna bet your life savings on the game. I think I will have to do a lil something like that.

[pbmax]

Who cares.

When GB tries to stop the run, they stuff it. Dom plays nickel even against run personnel. They aren't actually trying to run, they are trying to "keep the defense honest" to set up PA. Dom is dishonest. GB played more nickel in '10 than any other team, by a huge margin. And GB was the best team against PA passing. By a huge margin. Runs don't gash GB for explosive plays that set up scores. They make 2nd/3rd down manageable, that about it. Dom runs the ultimate white elephant D. GB is one of the best in the league at stuffing short yardage runs (#2), one of the best in the league at not allowing TD's, and well above average at not allowing first downs via the run. Odd for a team that is one of the league's worst at YPA. LOL.

Sure you show up now with this Waldo! But two months ago when I was trying to sort it out, everyone wanted to blame injuries. Sometime in the month after that thread, McGinn finally coughed up a number like 16%: as in, the Packers had played base D 16% of snaps in the entire season.

But do you think he is doing it because he has that much faith in nickel run D OR because he knows Woodson in the slot and Shields outside is a far better matchup than any 3rd lineman?

Or is McGinn right that he is protecting Wood from playing outside?

[HarveyWallbangers]

They also had the best WR in the league, a Hall of Fame TE, a pro-bowl kick returner, and a pro-bowl quarterback. Bears have a 1000 yard wide receiver, a tight-end, the best punt returner ever, and a risk taking, strong armed, solid quarterback.

Who is the 1000 yard receiver on the Bears?

[denverYooper]

Sure you show up now with this Waldo! But two months ago when I was trying to sort it out, everyone wanted to blame injuries. Sometime in the month after that thread, McGinn finally coughed up a number like 16%: as in, the Packers had played base D 16% of snaps in the entire season.

But do you think he is doing it because he has that much faith in nickel run D OR because he knows Woodson in the slot and Shields outside is a far better matchup than any 3rd lineman?

Or is McGinn right that he is protecting Wood from playing outside?

I just thought they were hip to the Kovash/Leavitt paper "Professionals don't play Minimax" and are going pass-heavy and pass-defense heavy as a result.

[mission]

because he knows Woodson in the slot and Shields outside is a far better matchup than any 3rd lineman?

My guess is this is closest to the right answer. Capers just wants to have Shields on the field taking away that deep threat and allowing Woodson to move all over the place. The rookie is just too talented to not have out there consistently. Without a 3rd corner, Woodson has to play outside, which, he can do, but isn't as much of a strength at this point in his career.

[RashanGary]

Hey Waldo,

I hadn't noticed it too much, but another poster mentioned Dom playing a lot of 3-3 nickle instead of the 2-4 nickle we're used to. Have you observed that or have stats to show that?

[mission]

Hey Waldo,

I hadn't noticed it too much, but another poster mentioned Dom playing a lot of 3-3 nickle instead of the 2-4 nickle we're used to. Have you observed that or have stats to show that?

Who are the three DL in this formation? Jenkins/Raji/Pickett?

[RashanGary]

Green/Raji/Pickett
Jenkins/Raji/Pickett
Green/Raji/Wilson
Wynn/Raji/Wilson

I don't know who it's been. . . I've noticed Wynn, Wilson, Green, Pickett and Jenkins throughout the weeks. I just haven't noticed if they were on the field in a group of three and Woodson at rover.

[RashanGary]

Or is McGinn right that he is protecting Wood from playing outside?

I think they really like Woodson inside because it opens up a lot of his playbook. Woodson was the DPOY last year. I really don't think he stinks all of a sudden on the outside.

[bobblehead]

Sure you show up now with this Waldo! But two months ago when I was trying to sort it out, everyone wanted to blame injuries. Sometime in the month after that thread, McGinn finally coughed up a number like 16%: as in, the Packers had played base D 16% of snaps in the entire season.

But do you think he is doing it because he has that much faith in nickel run D OR because he knows Woodson in the slot and Shields outside is a far better matchup than any 3rd lineman?

Or is McGinn right that he is protecting Wood from playing outside?

PB, you and I had this conversation at that time. I said that the packers weren't making stopping the run a priority this year and were playing a D with the attitude of: Go ahead and run the ball enough to keep up with Aaron...I dare you.

Its not about the faith in the nickel so much as its having so much faith in the Offense that you are willing to sacrifice the run D to not give up anything in the passing game.

I love the stat waldo posted about 2nd in short yardage run D. It speaks volumes of what happens when this unit prioritizes anything. And welcome back Waldo. Even if I disagree with you about Kampman, I still like your posts.

[bobblehead]

I think they really like Woodson inside because it opens up a lot of his playbook. Woodson was the DPOY last year. I really don't think he stinks all of a sudden on the outside.

Outside his no longer his strength, but besides Bob Sanders, I can't think of a DB I've EVER watched who supports the run D like Wood does. Move him to safety already, not that it matters the way we use him.

[Waldo]

When in 2-4-5 against base run personnel we are actually technically playing big nickel (2 CB, 3 S) with Wood usually as the SS. Wood really don't have a definable position, sometimes it leans CB, sometime it leans S, sometime it leans LB.

GB's run D stats in YPC look like crap. But answer this, who actually "established the run" against GB?

I think that Dom is confident that his nickel D won't give up a first down via the run on 1st and 10, and confident on his D's ability to play well situationally on other downs. I think he'd rather stop the potential play action pass that can hurt than not bleed first down yards on the ground. Gaining 5 yards looks great to an OC on 1st, but it doesn't gain you a whole lot vs. this D. You know Dom is worried about the run when you see us in a 3-4 on 1st down. Something he doesn't do a whole lot, even if they are showing run heavy.

[Joe]

Who is the 1000 yard receiver on the Bears?


Johnny Knox.

I believe that includes the playoff game. I saw the stat somewhere this week and checked it out. He had 960 in reg season, and this has to include playoffs.

[pbmax]

Who are the three DL in this formation? Jenkins/Raji/Pickett?

If its a potential run by down and distance, its Green with Raji and Pickett.

[pbmax]

PB, you and I had this conversation at that time. I said that the packers weren't making stopping the run a priority this year and were playing a D with the attitude of: Go ahead and run the ball enough to keep up with Aaron...I dare you.

Its not about the faith in the nickel so much as its having so much faith in the Offense that you are willing to sacrifice the run D to not give up anything in the passing game.

I love the stat waldo posted about 2nd in short yardage run D. It speaks volumes of what happens when this unit prioritizes anything. And welcome back Waldo. Even if I disagree with you about Kampman, I still like your posts.

Perhaps that is the reason, but it would be strange to continue to do it with the offense struggling for a good stretch in the middle of the season. I think it has to do with refusing to give up big pass plays like last year. This personnel and its cousins are a response to Arizona and Pittsburgh in my mind.

[Joemailman]

What Waldo's talking about is why I think Raji is the Defensive MVP. His presence inside enables Dom to go mostly nickel without getting gashed by opposing running games. That keeps Woodson inside where he is most effective and dangerous.

[Guiness]

When in 2-4-5 against base run personnel we are actually technically playing big nickel (2 CB, 3 S) with Wood usually as the SS. Wood really don't have a definable position, sometimes it leans CB, sometime it leans S, sometime it leans LB.

I get a kick out of how hard it is to recognize that we are supposedly in some sort of nickel. You'd swear we were in a base 4-3! Four guys up on the line (2 DL, 2 LBs), three players lined up like LBs (2LB's and Woodson) and 4 DB's. Tell me how this is 2-4-5? 8-D

I love it when Woodson lines up between the two MLB's. You could see Vick glancing at him when he did that in the Wildcard game - sure got in his head. On one play he shot the A-gap! Don't think I've seen a CB do that before...

[Smidgeon]

Who cares.

When GB tries to stop the run, they stuff it. Dom plays nickel even against run personnel. They aren't actually trying to run, they are trying to "keep the defense honest" to set up PA. Dom is dishonest. GB played more nickel in '10 than any other team, by a huge margin. And GB was the best team against PA passing. By a huge margin. Runs don't gash GB for explosive plays that set up scores. They make 2nd/3rd down manageable, that about it. Dom runs the ultimate white elephant D. GB is one of the best in the league at stuffing short yardage runs (#2), one of the best in the league at not allowing TD's, and well above average at not allowing first downs via the run. Odd for a team that is one of the league's worst at YPA. LOL.

Waldo!

[Tarlam!]

Waldo!

+1

Love Waldo's takes, always have, always will.

[Freak Out]

I like it when Waldo posts drunk. :)

[CaptainKickass]

But answer this, who actually "established the run" against GB?

The silence is broken.

Glad to see you posting here as always.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I've made the argument that Waldo is making. Our run stats aren't good, but we are a good run defense. I think Miami and Minnesota established the run against us early in the season, but we were beat up. Earlier in the year, QBs were gouging us pretty good on scrambles. Not so much lately.

[vince]

Yeah, not to pile on pb, but I too recall mentioning how the Packers were playing mostly nickel and that they weren't giving up points so there was no real problem with the run defense numbers. That's the Packers' best defense to both attack at the LOS and simultaneously protect against big plays, which is a central tenet of Capers' philosophy going back to the advent of the zone blitz.

Even in the last game against the Bears, most of Forte's yards came on 2 plays where Walden failed to hold the edge as I recall. Other than that he was pretty much shut down and it seems as if Walden has learned from those plays.

The 3-3 d I think refers to the nickel package where Walden's been playing off the LOS in the middle spying on the QB. It's not really a 3-3 unless you consider one of the OLB's playing on the LOS as a d-lineman.

[MichiganPackerFan]

What Waldo's talking about is why I think Raji is the Defensive MVP. His presence inside enables Dom to go mostly nickel without getting gashed by opposing running games. That keeps Woodson inside where he is most effective and dangerous.

I think that Raji had every bit the great season that Matthews did, with more consistency.

I'm still concerned about defending the mid level passing game. CHI has a good TE and the quick passing game killed us v AZ last year. How do they plan to stop the TE? It's not like any of our LB's play the pass very well. It seems to me QB pressure is the only way to disrupt it.

and finally: WALDO!!!!!

[Packers4Glory]

This will be interesting to see how chicago tries to utilize Olsen. he has 10 catches vs GB for 93 yards this yr. thats almost 25% of his receptions on the season. He's not a big part of their offense even tho he is their best receiver. However everyone knows GB hasn't been that great at stopping the TE this yr. I was surprised we held Tony Gonzalez as he was my big concern after stopping Tuner. Its going to be one of those things to look at as the game progresses. I wonder if we'll see a lot of Woodson on him and letting T-will and Shields cover their burners Knox and Hester?

[mraynrand]

One of the reasons the Packers are so good in the Nickel is that Woodson can tackle, and you rarely - if ever - see a lineman, TE, or FB lay a finger on him for a block. Woodson often has a completely free path to the ball carrier if he wants it and if he 'risks' it. If I were Chicago, I probably would spend some time figuring out how to block Woodson on run plays.

[sharpe1027]

I think that Raji had every bit the great season that Matthews did, with more consistency.

I'm still concerned about defending the mid level passing game. CHI has a good TE and the quick passing game killed us v AZ last year. How do they plan to stop the TE? It's not like any of our LB's play the pass very well. It seems to me QB pressure is the only way to disrupt it.

and finally: WALDO!!!!!

Another way to disrupt their mid level passing game is to have Cutler back there. I have also read that Chicago has gone away from the deeper drops and intermediate-to-long passing game that goes with it because their OL couldn't hold up that long.

Regarding the defense, I would imagine that the way we lineup really makes it difficult on opposing offenses. Normally an offense can call a play (in the huddle or audible) based upon what package the other team is in. Not so much with the Packers, they can take the same lineup and come out with completely different schemes. Dom has taken full advantage of having a DB that can lineup and be an effective LB (both for blitzes and run support) while still being good in coverage. Much of this is made possible because of our huge/powerful DL that allows them to go with only three, two or even one DL and still not get run on. It doesn't hurt that Hawk has been solid at standing up blockers to free up others to make plays.

I also love how our Defense looks like they are all just randomly wandering about right up until the ball is snapped. I've also seen them show a blitz, but if the QB doesn't snap the ball and makes an audible, the Defense seems to be making a counter audible. All of this and very few breakdowns. That's says a lot about both the coaching and the players

[Brandon494]

I think that Raji had every bit the great season that Matthews did, with more consistency.

I'm still concerned about defending the mid level passing game. CHI has a good TE and the quick passing game killed us v AZ last year. How do they plan to stop the TE? It's not like any of our LB's play the pass very well. It seems to me QB pressure is the only way to disrupt it.

and finally: WALDO!!!!!

We just played against Brent Celek and Tony Gonzalez and your worried about Greg Olsen beating us?

[Brandon494]

Who cares.

When GB tries to stop the run, they stuff it. Dom plays nickel even against run personnel. They aren't actually trying to run, they are trying to "keep the defense honest" to set up PA. Dom is dishonest. GB played more nickel in '10 than any other team, by a huge margin. And GB was the best team against PA passing. By a huge margin. Runs don't gash GB for explosive plays that set up scores. They make 2nd/3rd down manageable, that about it. Dom runs the ultimate white elephant D. GB is one of the best in the league at stuffing short yardage runs (#2), one of the best in the league at not allowing TD's, and well above average at not allowing first downs via the run. Odd for a team that is one of the league's worst at YPA. LOL.

Those are some good stats but that still doesnt change the fact that Matt Forte had a great game against us in week 17. We must contain him on Sunday and force Cutler to beat us.

[mraynrand]

Those are some good stats but that still doesnt change the fact that Matt Forte had a great game against us in week 17. We must contain him on Sunday and force Cutler to beat us.

I'll be OK if Forte is their top receiver again, but I'd like to see less than 80 yards

[Packers4Glory]

We just played against Brent Celek and Tony Gonzalez and your worried about Greg Olsen beating us?

Olsen is better than Celek and maybe a better pass catcher now than Gozalez is.

[Lurker64]

Those are some good stats but that still doesnt change the fact that Matt Forte had a great game against us in week 17. We must contain him on Sunday and force Cutler to beat us.

I think really, compared to the week 17 game, what we need to beat the Bears this time is a better showing by the offense. Considering how well they've played in the last couple weeks (2nd half against Philly notwithstanding) I'm reasonably confident that they can do that.

[pbmax]

Discounting the D's run game numbers is a dangerous game. Now I am all for limiting big pass plays even if it means giving something up in the run D. The improvement in scoring D this year is evidence that this has been worth it. But there is a danger in the tradeoff. Some dope at JSO today subtracted the QB rushing statistics from the Packers Run D and proclaimed them second best in the league. I couldn't find a clear headed individual that mentioned the comparison no longer was meaningful since he was comparing two completely different run categories.

Running QBs get first downs too. And Cutler is not afraid to take off. He is almost as athletic as Rodgers when running and he does not seem to run scared. He is no Vick, so he isn't scoring from 35 yards out, but he can easily keep drives alive. That keeps a defense on the field and alters the field position game. This mattered in both Bear games, the Dolphins and versus the Eagles. It matters more versus the Bears given the ST advantage.

It did not matter versus the Falcons because the offense was going through the Falcon secondary like a knife through butter. Rodgers is not likely to have that kind of success versus the Bears D.

They need to keep the Bears run game in check so that not every Packer drive starts inside their own 20. If it does, the game will look like Week 17.

[Fritz]

I'd agree with PB here, and add that in my limited football knowledge I have been trying to watch Woodson more, and it appeared to me as if he was often playing like an extra linebacker.