The Offseason

[SavedByGrace]

First of all, I am excited to be a part of the packerrats forum finally! I have been a regular watcher from afar, but haven't registered until now.

I know, I know...all the hype and focus should be on the big game on Sunday. Believe me, it is. But with the season so close to ending in less than a month, I can't help but wonder what the Packers are going to do in the upcoming offseason to make themselves better. Here are some thoughts...

Will the Packers do anything with Ryan Grant? 2011 is his contract year, and after coming off an injury year this year, will the Packers take the plunge on a back who is 28, who is not a big threat catching the ball out of the backfield? I don't forsee TT doing anything like this, but with all our cap room, it'd be cool to see the Pack make a move for free agent DeAngelo Williams, who is a quicker scat back, can catch the ball out of the backfield, and immediately upgrade our speed.

Will the Pack resign Barnett? Two out of the last 3 years he's had season ending injuries, and with both Barnett and Hawk due for contracts, I could see TT going with the much more dependable Hawk, especially with the type of season he's had and with the emergence of other young LBs.

Cullen Jenkins discussions have been quiet, or have they? He's a good, big end whom I think the Pack need to keep. Bigby needs to go, and, as much as I like the guy, Brandon Jackson just isn't cutting it.

The draft...what will the Pack address? TT never seems to draft who we think he will, but one would think we'd have to address our o-line and d-line. Clifton and Tauscher are probably pretty close to retiring, so we'll have some big gaps to fill there. All this talk of the Pack maybe snagging Asomugha would be nice, but let's face it, it probably won't happen. TT will go after youth and since we've got good players, add to the depth, which obviously was invaluable this year. Driver's career is coming to an end, and it wouldn't surprise me if TT went after some reciever in the mid rounds.

[mraynrand]

One thing is for certain (assuming there is a season next fall) Other teams will be salivating over Packer cut-downs. It is going to be a crowded, competitive camp like no other.

[Little Whiskey]

Nice first post SBG! thanks for taking the plunge and signing up!

[SavedByGrace]

mraynrand, you are absolutely right about that! With all our starters and key players on the IR, our "roster fillers" will be signing other places.

Little Whiskey, thanks a lot! Looking forward to being part of the team!

[swede]

Welcome, SBG. I am very pleased you have stepped out of darkness into light. But in the light of Packerrats you will find that people can see you better and will shoot at you no matter what you say.

But that's okay. It's more like going paintballing than going to Mosul. Shoot back.

First I'd like to see the Packers plan on having the 32nd pick in the 2011 draft.

You will get way more attention to a thread like this in March. :)

[vince]

Welcome Grace!

1. I think they'll go with Grant, Starks and Jackson at RB next year, along with Kuhn. I'd like to see more of Nance because Starks has the capability to be a better 3rd down back than Jackson and Nance brings a physical dimension taht I personally like. I'm thinking Jackson is just too reliable for McCarthy to let go.

2. Of all the existing guys, I think Barnett and Jenkins are the two guys whose spot is the most tenuous - Jenkins because of the combination of cost and depth. Barnett's time may be passing him, particularly if a ILB is drafte early.

3. I'd like to see OL, OLB, WR, ILB and CB in the draft. This team has great depth, but there are some spots to replenish due to aging vets.

[SkinBasket]

I think they should trade for Vince Young. Gamechanger.

[bobblehead]

I think they should trade for Vince Young. Gamechanger.

Do you have to trade for someone who is getting cut?

[Smidgeon]

Doesn't Barnett have a couple years left on his contract? I don't dispute that the Packers may choose between Hawk or Barnett (or, more accurately, starting Bishop or Barnett since Hawk and Barnett play two different positions), but it isn't because they're both in contract years. It's because they're either expensive (Hawk) or can be seen as too-injured and winding down (Barnett).

But who on the team would replace Hawk if he left? Chiller, Barnett, and Bishop all play the same position. Hawk has always had the other ILB spot. And there are other poster far more versed on why those two positions aren't interchangeable, so I'll let them do it.

[Patler]

Will the Packers do anything with Ryan Grant? 2011 is his contract year, and after coming off an injury year this year, will the Packers take the plunge on a back who is 28, who is not a big threat catching the ball out of the backfield? I don't forsee TT doing anything like this, but with all our cap room, it'd be cool to see the Pack make a move for free agent DeAngelo Williams, who is a quicker scat back, can catch the ball out of the backfield, and immediately upgrade our speed.

Will the Pack resign Barnett? Two out of the last 3 years he's had season ending injuries, and with both Barnett and Hawk due for contracts, I could see TT going with the much more dependable Hawk, especially with the type of season he's had and with the emergence of other young LBs.

Cullen Jenkins discussions have been quiet, or have they? He's a good, big end whom I think the Pack need to keep. Bigby needs to go, and, as much as I like the guy, Brandon Jackson just isn't cutting it.

The draft...what will the Pack address? TT never seems to draft who we think he will, but one would think we'd have to address our o-line and d-line. Clifton and Tauscher are probably pretty close to retiring, so we'll have some big gaps to fill there. All this talk of the Pack maybe snagging Asomugha would be nice, but let's face it, it probably won't happen. TT will go after youth and since we've got good players, add to the depth, which obviously was invaluable this year. Driver's career is coming to an end, and it wouldn't surprise me if TT went after some reciever in the mid rounds.

Grant is no longer overly expensive, since he will have missed out on his performance based increases for next year. I don't see any reason for TT to bring in anyone besides the RBs they have, but a draft pick is always possible.

Not sure what you mean by, "will the Pack resign Barnett?" He is under contract through 2012. They don't need to do anything with him. Hawk will be the bigger question due to how expensive he will be next year. But since the Pack will be poised to repeat as Super Bowl Champs next year, the one-year investment in Hawk might not look too bad.

There could be a bit of a logjam at DL next year if Jolly comes back. If the FA market doesn't go crazy, Jenkins could be back. But I have a feeling he will leave for a very big contract.

An important thing to consider is that a new CBA is likely to provide larger rosters, some saying 58 rather than 53. The seemingly crowded positions of RB, DL and LB that will have talented and experienced players returning from IR might easily resolve with rosters increasing. Ignoring the limitations of a salary cap, the roster may be large enough to keep anyone the Packers like as a player.

[SkinBasket]

Do you have to trade for someone who is getting cut?

Vince Young doesn't get cut. He simply moves through planes of awesomeness. The press doesn't understand this, and assigns worldly terms like "released," "let go," and "unceremoniously cut" so that unbelievers like you can understand that his game changerness no longer exists in the Tennessee reality.

I suggest we offer two 1sts, a 3rd and a conditional 5th to Vince Young himself to do with as he pleases.

[mraynrand]

Skinbasket, you talk a big game for someone who just got traded to Cincinnati!

[SkinBasket]

As a player to be named later to boot.

[Freak Out]

Vince Young should go back to school.

[red]

we just need to get healthy and stay healthy

that and a new special team coach and we are super bowl favorites for sure next year

one great thing we have going is we are an extremely young team, and those youngsters have already got a real nice taste of winning, and the two impressive playoff victories on the road give these guys the kind of experience you just can't buy

TT needs to just keep drafting like he's been drafting, and MM needs to keep making good players out of those picks, and dom needs to stick around. if those things happen we might be looking at a patriots type of run for this team in the years to come

but first things first, we need to kick the shit our of the fucking bears on sunday

[RashanGary]

Welcome to the board.

There is so much that could happen, I've given up guessing what will happen next year. Hopefully we win the SB now and the talk is about how to turn it into a dynasty.

[TennesseePackerBacker]

I'll return to this thread after the Superbowl.

Welcome!

[Deputy Nutz]

The Packers can get along without the often injured Jenkins, they have plenty of depth along the defensive line, I would like them to resign Howard Green for a veterans min, so you have three large bodies in Raji, Pickett, and Green. Along youngsters at Defensive End in Wynn, Wilson, and Neal. Drafting a defensive end in the the early rounds of the 2011 draft wouldn't be a bad statedgy either.

The Packers have a lot of linebackers under contract in 2010 but not many have a future cemented with the Packers. Hawk is due a large roster bonus in 2011, something that he probably can rework with team for an extended contract. Hawk isn't worth a huge contract, a contract of 5 years 25 million would seem realistic, but with the emergence of Bishop and having both Chillar and Barnett under contract the Packers probably won't offer Hawk a contract. I personally would like to see the Packers sign Hawk, and keep him and Bishop in the middle, and move Barnett to the outside opposite of Mathews. Barnett can use his speed in space and stay out of the wash in the middle. Barnett might give up 20 pounds to the other outside linebackers on the team, but it is hard to overlook his ability to make big plays when on the field. The rest of the outside linebackers on the roster outside Mathews are replaceable. It will be strong competition in training camp for the outside position between Walden, Zombo, and Jones. Most likely Poppinga will be kept for special teams, or cut because of his contract, and the rest of them are just fodder.

Running back, the Packers can easily go into training camp with Grant as their number one back, Jackson is a free agent and probably won't be back, he is very good at blitz pickup, and decent at catching the ball out of the backfield, but he is replacable with a younger player. Starks could make it or break it in training camp next season, he hasn't earned a spot on the roster yet for next season although he is curren't going to be 2nd on the depth chart at the open of camp. Packers are probably going to invest in a running back during the 2011 draft, value will be the key to where Thompson takes a running back.

Offensive line will need a bit of an overhall. The Packers would be foolish to go another season with Clifton as the starting left tackle without a premium replacement on the roster. Bulaga looks the part at right tackle, TJ Lang is a misfit right now, if Bulaga moves over to left tackle then Lang could be the answer at right tackle but he has not progressed since last season, and he also might be in line for a starting spot at left guard if the Packers don't resign Colledge which in all likelyhood will be the case. The Packers are going to have to spend another early draft pick on an offensive lineman, most likely at left tackle where this draft class has quality top tier depth. .

Wide receiver will be more of the same in 2011. The Packers have the best corps in the NFL, but neither Jones or Nelson have made the leaps needed to unseat Driver. Donald Driver will be back. Swain could be replaced, but he is one of the very few steady bright spots on special teams.

The Packers simply has too many fullbacks and Corey Hall looks to be out of job in 2011. John Kuhn is to valuable to the offense and to special teams, and Quinn Johnson is a road grader.

The defensive backfield is mix of old and new, with Tramon Williams turning into a shut down corner which allows Charles Woodson to roam the field. The emergence of Sam Shields is a pleasant suprise considering he was a man without a position when he was signed as a free agent. Nick Collins is an All-Pro and Peprah has done a fine job, but he might lose his job to Charles Woodson if Woodson makes the move to safety and the Packers hit the jackpot and sign Nnamdi Asomugha who has said to be interested in playing next to Charles Woodson. What was a weakness in 2009, has now become a strong hold for the Packers. Lee and Underwood could be replaced by younger players with more potential.

Kickers, Masthay has been a welcomed addition considering the Packers have struggled for ten years to find a quality punter. Mason Crosby job is at a crossroads, and the Packers would be fools to just hand him the job in 2011.

[steve823]

Hopefully TT will continue to draft like he's done recently. Since we have our core players and talent throughout the roster, I wouldn't be surprised to see him trade up again.

I'm still not sold on letting Jackson go because he is a good 3rd down back.This article really shows how the Packers backs have been excelling at pass-blocking, especially Jackson.

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/01/21/undercover-mvps-the-packers-pass-protecting-backs/

[Freak Out]

I just down voted this cursed thread.

[red]

this is at nutz post

i think if the coaches though lang is the future at LG then he would have been inserted there already. colledge is clearly the weak spot on the o-line. so i could see baluga moving to LT and lang as RT. i also wouldn't mind them going after a guy like carmini if he's ther

i've been looking at a lot of mocks and almost all of them say we need help on the d-line. which i don't agree with at all. we're stacked there and don't forget we get Jolly back next year. this might be one of our strongest positions

other mocks say we need a RB. again i think we'll be fine there. grant will be back, him and starks will be a nice 1-2 punch. plus nance has a lot of potential and might be able to turn into something nice

i also agree that barnett might make a nice OLB, he's a real good blitzed and is decent in coverage. i think hawks deal gets reworked and him and bishop will man the middle

i'd like to see us add another QB in the draft maybe so we can trade flynn is the price is right. unless MM thinks graham harrell can be a good backup

i just don't see a lot of weaknesses on our team heading into next year

[Joemailman]

I think the most likely scenario is that TT drafts another OT in the 1st round. That gives him the option of moving Bulaga to LG if they don't sign Colledge. I thought Bulaga was beating out Colledge before he got hurt in the preseason. I don't see DL as much of a need unless neither Jenkins or Jolly are coming back. CB is a position could use some upgrading. As good as they've been this year, they're one injury away from having Jarrett Bush as the nickel back.

[MJZiggy]

Welcome to the forum Grace. I think first they're going to need to look at the multitudes on IR and walking wounded and assess their condition. People like to assume that when you get a guy back, he's pretty much like he was before injury. That's not always the case. It will give them a better indication of who will stick around and who might be expendable (much as I hate thinking of any of our guys as expendable). Then comes the tough part of comparing the play of the replacements to the guys they replaced. This is one of those really good problems to have, deciding which of the two really good players is the better option. I don't know who's left that is doing so horridly that they stand out as guys who could really improve the team by not being on it. I'm really impressed with the team at this point except maybe Colledge who drives me nuts sometimes.

[Brando19]

Welcome to this disfunctional family we call packerrats...lol. Great first post. I too would LOVE to see DeAngelo Williams in Green and Gold. But if the Packers draft Ingram...that would be awesome. I'm just not that big a fan of Grant. DeAngelo Williams/Starks/Jackson= SUCCESS!

[mission]

Would have told [someone] that I have no interest in reading anything about the offseason right now, but since you're new I'll just say welcome and invite you to post here freely and without inhibition.

:)

[Lurker64]

The Packers are going to have to spend another early draft pick on an offensive lineman, most likely at left tackle where this draft class has quality top tier depth.

I don't personally agree. I think that your second tier LT prospects from last year's draft, guys like Bulaga and Saffold are far and away better LT prospects than anybody in this upcoming draft (Solder is intriguing as a prospect, but he's really... really raw, shouldn't start as a rookie). There's a reasonable supply of right tackles though, looking at guys like Gabe Carimi and Marcus Cannon.

Their best bet is probably moving Bulaga to the left side and trying to fill a hole at RT. Though I wouldn't sleep on Newhouse, even though he collected a paycheck all year while being inactive. He has good feet and technique, he just needs to get stronger.

[vince]

Newhouse's back problems at this early stage of his career are troublesome. I still think Lang is part of the answer, probably at RT. Maybe McDonald and/or EDS can fill in at LG, but they need depth from there even if that's the case.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

I want to be celebrating a Superbowl win all offseason! Seriously though? An offseason thread? We spend all offseason discussing the team for the hopes of having a chance to play in the Superbowl.....thats all I can think about right now is beating the Bears this weekend. I hate that team so much.......This game means so much.......who cares about next season right now, there night not even be a season. Hoping for a great game Sunday, God willing!

[Lurker64]

I want to be celebrating a Superbowl win all offseason! Seriously though? An offseason thread? We spend all offseason discussing the team for the hopes of having a chance to play in the Superbowl.....thats all I can think about right now is beating the Bears this weekend. I hate that team so much.......This game means so much.......who cares about next season right now, there night not even be a season. Hoping for a great game Sunday, God willing!

Just because you're still in it, doesn't mean you can't be thinking about the draft. I've been thinking about the draft since June.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Just because you're still in it, doesn't mean you can't be thinking about the draft. I've been thinking about the draft since June.

I find that odd.

[Lurker64]

I find that odd.

The NFL draft used to be two of my favorite days of the year. Now? It's three of my favorite days of the year. Potentially, I have a problem.

[ND72]

I would not be surprised if TT has another defensive heavy draft with a sprinkle of OL, and maybe a RB & QB(wolfe-style)

[bobblehead]

The Packers can get along without the often injured Jenkins, they have plenty of depth along the defensive line, I would like them to resign Howard Green for a veterans min, so you have three large bodies in Raji, Pickett, and Green. Along youngsters at Defensive End in Wynn, Wilson, and Neal. Drafting a defensive end in the the early rounds of the 2011 draft wouldn't be a bad statedgy either.

The Packers have a lot of linebackers under contract in 2010 but not many have a future cemented with the Packers. Hawk is due a large roster bonus in 2011, something that he probably can rework with team for an extended contract. Hawk isn't worth a huge contract, a contract of 5 years 25 million would seem realistic, but with the emergence of Bishop and having both Chillar and Barnett under contract the Packers probably won't offer Hawk a contract. I personally would like to see the Packers sign Hawk, and keep him and Bishop in the middle, and move Barnett to the outside opposite of Mathews. Barnett can use his speed in space and stay out of the wash in the middle. Barnett might give up 20 pounds to the other outside linebackers on the team, but it is hard to overlook his ability to make big plays when on the field. The rest of the outside linebackers on the roster outside Mathews are replaceable. It will be strong competition in training camp for the outside position between Walden, Zombo, and Jones. Most likely Poppinga will be kept for special teams, or cut because of his contract, and the rest of them are just fodder.

Running back, the Packers can easily go into training camp with Grant as their number one back, Jackson is a free agent and probably won't be back, he is very good at blitz pickup, and decent at catching the ball out of the backfield, but he is replacable with a younger player. Starks could make it or break it in training camp next season, he hasn't earned a spot on the roster yet for next season although he is curren't going to be 2nd on the depth chart at the open of camp. Packers are probably going to invest in a running back during the 2011 draft, value will be the key to where Thompson takes a running back.

Offensive line will need a bit of an overhall. The Packers would be foolish to go another season with Clifton as the starting left tackle without a premium replacement on the roster. Bulaga looks the part at right tackle, TJ Lang is a misfit right now, if Bulaga moves over to left tackle then Lang could be the answer at right tackle but he has not progressed since last season, and he also might be in line for a starting spot at left guard if the Packers don't resign Colledge which in all likelyhood will be the case. The Packers are going to have to spend another early draft pick on an offensive lineman, most likely at left tackle where this draft class has quality top tier depth. .

Wide receiver will be more of the same in 2011. The Packers have the best corps in the NFL, but neither Jones or Nelson have made the leaps needed to unseat Driver. Donald Driver will be back. Swain could be replaced, but he is one of the very few steady bright spots on special teams.

The Packers simply has too many fullbacks and Corey Hall looks to be out of job in 2011. John Kuhn is to valuable to the offense and to special teams, and Quinn Johnson is a road grader.

The defensive backfield is mix of old and new, with Tramon Williams turning into a shut down corner which allows Charles Woodson to roam the field. The emergence of Sam Shields is a pleasant suprise considering he was a man without a position when he was signed as a free agent. Nick Collins is an All-Pro and Peprah has done a fine job, but he might lose his job to Charles Woodson if Woodson makes the move to safety and the Packers hit the jackpot and sign Nnamdi Asomugha who has said to be interested in playing next to Charles Woodson. What was a weakness in 2009, has now become a strong hold for the Packers. Lee and Underwood could be replaced by younger players with more potential.

Kickers, Masthay has been a welcomed addition considering the Packers have struggled for ten years to find a quality punter. Mason Crosby job is at a crossroads, and the Packers would be fools to just hand him the job in 2011.

Nutz, stick around and post awhile, we miss your opinions. Time to forget the past and move forward.

One thing I find intriguing would be moving Woodson to safety in the event we find a player at CB to add to our 2 young guns. Wood could still be the nickel playing slot with Peprah or Burnett coming in as the official nickel back.

[swede]

The NFL draft used to be two of my favorite days of the year. Now? It's three of my favorite days of the year. Potentially, I have a problem.

I have a similar problem. I blame it on my ADHD. The draft allows me to stay busy with something that is at once meaningful and meaningless, important and unimportant, surprising and predictable. I prepare charts that make me feel happy when a knowledgeable guess is confirmed, and then the charts make me feel dumb when I can't get a single pick right in the second half of the first round. I root for the Packers to pick players that probably aren't even on Ted's board. And then, as in the 2009 draft, something amazing happens as in the legendary TT trade up to get Matthews!

My family cannot fathom the bonds that hold me to the draft, and I know many true green and gold smart Packer fans that are content to wait until the 7th round is over before finding out what happened. I admit I have a problem but until my family does an intervention they are stuck with me brooding over my notebooks and websites in the days before the draft, and they are stuck with me treating them like alien invaders to my private world when they need me to leave the television and return to their planet.

[mraynrand]

Time to forget the past and move forward.

He who forgets his interceptions is doomed to repeat them

[mraynrand]

I have a similar problem. I blame it on my ADHD. The draft allows me to stay busy with something that is at once meaningful and meaningless, important and unimportant, surprising and predictable. I prepare charts that make me feel happy when a knowledgeable guess is confirmed, and then the charts make me feel dumb when I can't get a single pick right in the second half of the first round. I root for the Packers to pick players that probably aren't even on Ted's board. And then, as in the 2009 draft, something amazing happens as in the legendary TT trade up to get Matthews!

My family cannot fathom the bonds that hold me to the draft, and I know many true green and gold smart Packer fans that are content to wait until the 7th round is over before finding out what happened. I admit I have a problem but until my family does an intervention they are stuck with me brooding over my notebooks and websites in the days before the draft, and they are stuck with me treating them like alien invaders to my private world when they need me to leave the television and return to their planet.

My family wanted to have me committed when I ran around the house with shouts of pure joy after Matthews was drafted. I would not settle down. Pretty much an average day the Mraynrand household.

[mraynrand]

Mason Crosby job is at a crossroads, and the Packers would be fools to just hand him the job in 2011.


I liked the whole post, but this last part just leaped out at me. Fools? Look, Crosby altered his kicks from last year where he was missing just to the right to this year where he misses off the left upright. Seriously though - the guy has done just about everything right, and there have been pages and pages about how Stubby will use him far more from 45+ than other kickers in the league. Take tomorrow - Lovie Smith most likely will have a 40-45 yard maximum cap on Gould, who is considered a total money kicker - mostly because he's accurate and Lovie doesn't put him out there for a lot of long attempts. Crosby, even in the (likely) bitter cold, will probably be trotted out there for anything within a couple of yards of 50 (unless it's extremely low scoring and Stubby has to play field position). Unless Crosby goes on a post-season five month bender, misses all the OTAs, shows up chubbier than Sebastian Janikowski, and flops on his ass in August, I can't imagine him not being a shoo-in as PK. What am I missing?

[Lurker64]

I liked the whole post, but this last part just leaped out at me. Fools? Look, Crosby altered his kicks from last year where he was missing just to the right to this year where he misses off the left upright. Seriously though - the guy has done just about everything right, and there have been pages and pages about how Stubby will use him far more from 45+ than other kickers in the league. Take tomorrow - Lovie Smith most likely will have a 40-45 yard maximum cap on Gould, who is considered a total money kicker - mostly because he's accurate and Lovie doesn't put him out there for a lot of long attempts. Crosby, even in the (likely) bitter cold, will probably be trotted out there for anything within a couple of yards of 50 (unless it's extremely low scoring and Stubby has to play field position). Unless Crosby goes on a post-season five month bender, misses all the OTAs, shows up chubbier than Sebastian Janikowski, and flops on his ass in August, I can't imagine him not being a shoo-in as PK. What am I missing?

I'll say the same thing about Crosby that I say any time someone says "it's time to replace [special team specialist]": You don't replace Mason Crosby until you find someone better. Even if Crosby is in the 80th percentile of placekickers, guys in the 81st percentile aren't exactly falling out of the sky. You might want to bring in just somebody to compete, but again that depends on how many roster spots you're allowed for camp. Since the NFLE exemption vanished so the offseason roster went from 86 to 80, teams became much less likely to keep backup specialists on the roster assuming that the P/K they already had was at least B- quality, since those late round bottom of the roster guys at RB (Arian Foster), CB (Tramon Williams), or WR (Miles Austin) may well end up helping your team a whole lot more than a second punter.

Kicking throughout the NFL just isn't very good these days. But if you can actually show me somebody better who's available and not too expensive, I'll listen. Until then, Crosby's staying.

[Deputy Nutz]

I liked the whole post, but this last part just leaped out at me. Fools? Look, Crosby altered his kicks from last year where he was missing just to the right to this year where he misses off the left upright. Seriously though - the guy has done just about everything right, and there have been pages and pages about how Stubby will use him far more from 45+ than other kickers in the league. Take tomorrow - Lovie Smith most likely will have a 40-45 yard maximum cap on Gould, who is considered a total money kicker - mostly because he's accurate and Lovie doesn't put him out there for a lot of long attempts. Crosby, even in the (likely) bitter cold, will probably be trotted out there for anything within a couple of yards of 50 (unless it's extremely low scoring and Stubby has to play field position). Unless Crosby goes on a post-season five month bender, misses all the OTAs, shows up chubbier than Sebastian Janikowski, and flops on his ass in August, I can't imagine him not being a shoo-in as PK. What am I missing?

He is average at best, and what good is it to send a kicker out for a 50+ field goal if the chances of making them are less than half? The bottom line is that Crosby hasn't had any competition in camp, so we simply don't know if there is a better kicker out there for the Packers. 78% was his average this year, which ranked him 30th in the NFL.

[bobblehead]

What am I missing?

the clutch game winners....just like crosby. I agree with almost everything you said, but for a guy with a monster leg he has missed nearly every important 4th quarter kick he has had. Made the first one of his career, and has missed countless ones since. I like mason, but I don't want him to be without competition.

[Deputy Nutz]

I have a similar problem. I blame it on my ADHD. The draft allows me to stay busy with something that is at once meaningful and meaningless, important and unimportant, surprising and predictable. I prepare charts that make me feel happy when a knowledgeable guess is confirmed, and then the charts make me feel dumb when I can't get a single pick right in the second half of the first round. I root for the Packers to pick players that probably aren't even on Ted's board. And then, as in the 2009 draft, something amazing happens as in the legendary TT trade up to get Matthews!

My family cannot fathom the bonds that hold me to the draft, and I know many true green and gold smart Packer fans that are content to wait until the 7th round is over before finding out what happened. I admit I have a problem but until my family does an intervention they are stuck with me brooding over my notebooks and websites in the days before the draft, and they are stuck with me treating them like alien invaders to my private world when they need me to leave the television and return to their planet.

I used to love the draft, and I still won't miss it. I make it an event, but they way they lay it out now with only the first round on a Thursday night really wrecks it for me. I could commit a full Saturday to the first 3 rounds of the draft, now Saturday is a throw a way day, one where I will be expected to do work around the house. The NFL really screwed this up.

[mraynrand]

He is average at best, and what good is it to send a kicker out for a 50+ field goal if the chances of making them are less than half? The bottom line is that Crosby hasn't had any competition in camp, so we simply don't know if there is a better kicker out there for the Packers. 78% was his average this year, which ranked him 30th in the NFL.


IT depends on the circumstances. But he can hit them, and others can't. I guess it doesn't hurt to bring in a competitive camp leg, you need an extra one or two anyway. Maybe the contrast will shock you.

[mraynrand]

I used to love the draft, and I still won't miss it. I make it an event, but they way they lay it out now with only the first round on a Thursday night really wrecks it for me. I could commit a full Saturday to the first 3 rounds of the draft, now Saturday is a throw a way day, one where I will be expected to do work around the house. The NFL really screwed this up.

DVR

[Patler]

He is average at best, and what good is it to send a kicker out for a 50+ field goal if the chances of making them are less than half? The bottom line is that Crosby hasn't had any competition in camp, so we simply don't know if there is a better kicker out there for the Packers. 78% was his average this year, which ranked him 30th in the NFL.

David Akers has been named to the Pro-Bowl five times and a first team All-Pro four time. Let's compare:

Overall:
Akers - 294/359 81.9%
Crosby - 107/137 78.1%

0-19 yards
Akers - 5/5 100%
Crosby - 4/4 100%

20-29 yards
Akers - 95/96 99%
Crosby - 36/37 97.3%

30-39 yards
Akers - 96/109 88.1%
Crosby - 31/38 81.6%

40-49 yards
Akers - 83/117 70.9%
Crosby - 26/37 70.3%

50+
Akers - 15/32 46.9%
Crosby - 10/21 47.6%

Two things jump out at me, looking at those stats:

- The difference at 30-39 yards. That seems to be Crosby's only weakness. However, his sample size is somewhat small, thus magnifying the significance of each miss. If he "fixes" that he compares favorably to a perennial Pro-Bowl/All Pro kicker.

- 21 of Crosby's 137 attempts have been from 50 or more. That's 15% of his attempts. 32 of Akers' 359 attempts have been from 50 yards or more. That's 9%. For Crosby, 1 of every 7 is from 50+. For Akers, 1 of 11. Since that is clearly where success drops significantly, kicking that frequently from that distance hurts Crosby's overall success rate a lot.


Really, we should expect this. For most of Crosby's career the Packers have been very successful scoring TDs when they get inside the red zone. As a result, Crosby has fewer chances for the most makeable FGs. Couple that with MM's willingness to try 50-55 yarders whenever possible, and you will have a fieldgoal kicker that has almost no chance to match the success rate of kickers on teams that struggle to score TDs in the red zone.

[Deputy Nutz]

Well I guess Crosby is the "bee's knees" then. I am sorry I am not sold on the progress he has made, and I would rather have a rock of a kicker from 45 yards and in than one that has a 47% chance of making a 54 yard field goal.

Crosby is servicable, no doubt, but do you trust him with the game on the line from 46 yards out? At this point in his career he should be counted on to nail that kick, and I don't think many of you can express that kind of faith in him.

[mraynrand]

Crosby is servicable, no doubt, but do you trust him with the game on the line from 46 yards out?


40-49 yards
Akers - 83/117 70.9%
Crosby - 26/37 70.3%

I trust him about as much as most of the better kickers, maybe not as much as Vinatieri, but a whole lot more than Nick Folk. It doesn't matter, if it comes down to a 46 yard FG, and it's Crosby or Vinatieri I'm going to be pacing the room. If it's Nick Folk, I'll be loading my pistol.

[Patler]

Well I guess Crosby is the "bee's knees" then. I am sorry I am not sold on the progress he has made, and I would rather have a rock of a kicker from 45 yards and in than one that has a 47% chance of making a 54 yard field goal.

Crosby is servicable, no doubt, but do you trust him with the game on the line from 46 yards out? At this point in his career he should be counted on to nail that kick, and I don't think many of you can express that kind of faith in him.

Would you trust him any less than you would trust Akers to make that kick? Their success rates are almost identical from 40+.
One of my problems with MM (and with many fans) is that they seem to expect a 40+ yard field goal should be almost as certain as an extra point kick. It's not, for any kicker. A ball shaped like a football is shaped, kicked broadside so it will either float or tumble is not very stable aerodynamically. It will not always fly "true". Over a distance of 40+ yards it will wonder, even without the outside influence of wind. From the center of the field, the kicker has a tolerance of 9'3' on either side of dead center. If the kick comes from the hash mark, the tolerance is less due to the angle. That's not a lot from 40 yards away or more.

[mraynrand]

OK, just for fun, here's Mason Crosby's 2010 (regular season) misses: (he was 22 of 28)

First miss: at Chicago, Mason was 1 of 2 - the 'miss' was blocked (Loss)

Two misses at Washington Mason's makes were from 52 and 36; misses were 1) from 48 wide right and 2) off the left upright from 53 yards (on grass) at the end of regulation; Packer lose 16-13 in OT


Missed one of four in 9-0 win at Jets

Missed one of 2 in 45-7 shellacking of Dallas

Missed chip shot in first of three attempts in win over SF

I guess you could say Crosby cost the Packers the Redskins game, or at least could have won it for them


His kicks in the other games didn't decide any outcomes

One recovered onside kicks (at NE) didn't alter outcome.

21.8 average return pretty close to average. Touch backs at all time low of 4 after averaging 14 (Scheme?)

Miskick set up huge return at NE - but would you blame the longest return for a lineman on Crosby's kick?

OK, I'm officially bored now. You probably are too. That wasn't really fun at all.

[Patler]

Miskick set up huge return at NE - but would you blame the longest return for a lineman on Crosby's kick?

Miskick? I don't think that was a miskick at all. I think it is what they wanted to do with 2 minutes left in the half. Kick it short to a lineman at the 20, 25 yard line and have him mishandle it or fall on it with little or no return. On their previous kickoff they kicked to the 25 and Crumpler returned it 4 yards.

[pbmax]

I used to love the draft, and I still won't miss it. I make it an event, but they way they lay it out now with only the first round on a Thursday night really wrecks it for me. I could commit a full Saturday to the first 3 rounds of the draft, now Saturday is a throw a way day, one where I will be expected to do work around the house. The NFL really screwed this up.

This. The draft schedule stinks to high heaven now. Ruins it as a weekend event.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I used to love the draft, and I still won't miss it. I make it an event, but they way they lay it out now with only the first round on a Thursday night really wrecks it for me. I could commit a full Saturday to the first 3 rounds of the draft, now Saturday is a throw a way day, one where I will be expected to do work around the house. The NFL really screwed this up.

Agreed.

[HarveyWallbangers]

DVR

Agree with this too. Maybe the wife doesn't need to know that the draft isn't an all day Saturday event. :)

[mraynrand]

Miskick? I don't think that was a miskick at all. I think it is what they wanted to do with 2 minutes left in the half. Kick it short to a lineman at the 20, 25 yard line and have him mishandle it or fall on it with little or no return. On their previous kickoff they kicked to the 25 and Crumpler returned it 4 yards.


Yeah, it wasn't supposed to be a normal kick off, but I read somewhere that he was supposed to get it farther down the field. Anyway, I don't think the outcome of that kick off was his fault - after all, he was illegally blocked in the back...

[mraynrand]

Agree with this too. Maybe the wife doesn't need to know that the draft isn't an all day Saturday event. :)


Just don't fast-forward through the commercials and turn the volume down when there is some ad for a show/event that already happened...

[Little Whiskey]

Nice to see you post again, nutz. this forum misses some of your insights.

[Lurker64]

I used to love the draft, and I still won't miss it. I make it an event, but they way they lay it out now with only the first round on a Thursday night really wrecks it for me. I could commit a full Saturday to the first 3 rounds of the draft, now Saturday is a throw a way day, one where I will be expected to do work around the house. The NFL really screwed this up.

I think that the NFL draft would be greatly improved if they would just switch the first round to friday night, if they want to do it by itself in prime time, and then do rounds 2-3 (the ones in which championships are built) on Saturday and finish up on Sunday. Sadly, I don't think that would happen.

I have to say, though, that I like the 1/2-3/4-7 split better than I liked the 1-2/3-7 split... that 5 round day was really very long. 1-3/4-7 was pretty good too.

[Guiness]

I used to love the draft, and I still won't miss it. I make it an event, but they way they lay it out now with only the first round on a Thursday night really wrecks it for me. I could commit a full Saturday to the first 3 rounds of the draft, now Saturday is a throw a way day, one where I will be expected to do work around the house. The NFL really screwed this up.

Agreed. Splitting it up the way they have rots.

[SavedByGrace]

Guys, thanks for the warm welcome!

Just a few thoughts:

I am not a huge Ryan Grant fan. His style of running is conducive to a short career. His straightforward, smashmouth mentality is fun to watch. But it hasn't been hugely successful (not necessarily this year), which is interesting seeing that we have such a deadly pass attack. We definitely don't have a good line, which hurts, but how many more years does Grant actually have? I'd love to see DeAngelo Williams in green and gold. He could catch some passes out of the backfield and be a Jamaal Charles type of guy.

I agree that the Packers MUST address their O-Line this offseason. With Tauscher probably done and Clifton nearing the end (yes I know he made the Pro Bowl this year, but he's going to be 35), there's not a lot of experience and/or good players. Bulaga is going to be solid, but Colledge...ugh.

Somebody a few posts back talked about moving Barnett outside, which I think would be a pretty good idea. But didn't he reject the idea a few years ago? We'll have a lot of depth a LB if we can resign some of these guys we picked up as fill-ins this year. Might we draft Clay's little bro, Casey, to compliment him on the other side in the mid rounds of the draft?

Finally, I think this Mason Crosby talk is interesting. Not that I think Crosby is bad, but I'd like to see the Packers upgrade. The guy has a huge leg, but he definitely has struggled with accuracy this year. He's been better as of late, but he hasn't been great. I like Crosby, but I do wonder whether or not upgrading him is a priority...probably not.

[Deputy Nutz]

Barnett rejected it a couple of years ago when the Packers drafted Hawk and Abdul Hodge. The thought was that Barnett would be asked to move to the strong side and Hodge would play the middle. That was in the 4-3 defense where the strong side backer ate up blockers, ala Poppinga. Barnett had every reason to turn that down, considering how poorly Hodge performed in the NFL.

In the 3-4 Barnett would have a better opportunity to make big plays.