pbmax
01-22-2011, 06:17 PM
Ladies and Gentleman, I give you The Rivers Index, Playoffs Edition (2001-2010) (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=8470)
Posted by Neil Paine on January 21, 2011
Pro Football Reference and Haberdashery (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/)
When we last left Mr. Paine, he was trying to explain how a QB such as Phillip Rivers keeps coming up short, seemingly season after season, often through no fault of his own (though he has had a hand in a few disappointments). This research yielded the Rivers Index (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=7766), an attempt to isolate QB performance, compare it to the rest of the league in terms of wins and losses, and see who won despite lesser performances and who was defeated despite admirable effort.
They calculate Adjusted Yards Per Attempt [(pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown))/(passing attempts)] in each game and run a regression against actual wins and losses to find the expected win probability for a given passing performance. QBs can then be compared by the difference between expected wins and the number of actual wins. The premise is that the difference between the two is largely attributable to the rest of the team.
For the regular season, your top 22 from the last three seasons:
http://i85.photobucket.com/albums/k75/paisans_2006/regseasonAYA.png
He has now taken the same methodology and applied it to the playoffs for this past decade. He has added a figure for the league average to adjust for the level of opponent. They also adjusted the playoff scenario for weather and home field.
http://i85.photobucket.com/albums/k75/paisans_2006/playoffaya.png
The take away from all this? Rodgers is among the five best at his position and the only QB who seems to be clearly outperforming him is Rivers. His win totals are lower than would normally be expected due largely (though not exclusively) to the disappointing 2008 season. He has played well in the regular season and playoffs.
It seems logical to expect good play from him versus the Bears, an opponent he has seen twice before and who have already shown him major wrinkles in the 2nd game compared to the first. Reasonable performances from the rest of the team should yield a very good result.
Posted by Neil Paine on January 21, 2011
Pro Football Reference and Haberdashery (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/)
When we last left Mr. Paine, he was trying to explain how a QB such as Phillip Rivers keeps coming up short, seemingly season after season, often through no fault of his own (though he has had a hand in a few disappointments). This research yielded the Rivers Index (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=7766), an attempt to isolate QB performance, compare it to the rest of the league in terms of wins and losses, and see who won despite lesser performances and who was defeated despite admirable effort.
They calculate Adjusted Yards Per Attempt [(pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown))/(passing attempts)] in each game and run a regression against actual wins and losses to find the expected win probability for a given passing performance. QBs can then be compared by the difference between expected wins and the number of actual wins. The premise is that the difference between the two is largely attributable to the rest of the team.
For the regular season, your top 22 from the last three seasons:
http://i85.photobucket.com/albums/k75/paisans_2006/regseasonAYA.png
He has now taken the same methodology and applied it to the playoffs for this past decade. He has added a figure for the league average to adjust for the level of opponent. They also adjusted the playoff scenario for weather and home field.
http://i85.photobucket.com/albums/k75/paisans_2006/playoffaya.png
The take away from all this? Rodgers is among the five best at his position and the only QB who seems to be clearly outperforming him is Rivers. His win totals are lower than would normally be expected due largely (though not exclusively) to the disappointing 2008 season. He has played well in the regular season and playoffs.
It seems logical to expect good play from him versus the Bears, an opponent he has seen twice before and who have already shown him major wrinkles in the 2nd game compared to the first. Reasonable performances from the rest of the team should yield a very good result.