pbmax
01-22-2011, 07:05 PM
Football Outsider goes over the whole matchup. Its not without flaws (unless the local writers are mistaken, Psycho is one down lineman and a lot of milling around front) but a very good read and a review of the previous two matchups. Their verdict? Week 17 is more likely to be repeated than Week3. (http://footballoutsiders.com/game-previews/2011/2010-nfc-conference-championship-preview)
by Bill Barnwell, Jan 21, 2011
Among other items:
1. Packers should keep the fullback (or full house). Single back hasn't been kind to the Packer running game versus the Bears.
2. Green Bay has not been fantastic running in the Red Zone (19th) or in Power Situations (25th) but the Bears run D in tight is worse.
3. The downside to the above is that the Bears are #1 in red zone pass D.
4. As covered in the Game Thread by Justin (good catch for JH and others) the Bears D spent a significant number of Week 17 snaps showing one thing and bailing to another. They often showed man coverage outside and in the slot with single high safety. Then they bailed to play Cover 3 at times, when they spent most of Week 3 in straight, non-disguised Cover 2. They played four across short while in Cover 3, which means they were rushing 4. Rodgers will need time to pass against that if they show it again.
5. But the Bears did not retreat to the same look each time. Bears D will mix it up. Driver's big catch on the TD drive came against the same front and presnap read as described in 4, but the Bears bailed to Cover 2 at the snap. Driver and Rodgers seemed to adjust on the fly to it and hit it where most vulnerable. Jennings big catch was against Cover 2 as well, on Rodgers third read.
6. Empty backfield worked in Week 3 with Finley, but was limited to one first down in Week 17.
7. Versus the Packers nickel, Forte had some good early runs to Walden's side (Bear's weak side in this case) off a trap block. After those runs, Capers went back to straight 3-4 in this drive. If memory serves, he did not do this the entire game, so an adjustment might have been made after this drive to the nickel.
8. Cutler's FO devised success rate is league best when he is scrambling.
9. Cutler had five escapes from the Packer pass rush and gained 45 yards and 3 first downs running in those 5 plays.
10. After a Week 3 shellacking, the Packers ST played the Bears ST even in Week 17.
by Bill Barnwell, Jan 21, 2011
Among other items:
1. Packers should keep the fullback (or full house). Single back hasn't been kind to the Packer running game versus the Bears.
2. Green Bay has not been fantastic running in the Red Zone (19th) or in Power Situations (25th) but the Bears run D in tight is worse.
3. The downside to the above is that the Bears are #1 in red zone pass D.
4. As covered in the Game Thread by Justin (good catch for JH and others) the Bears D spent a significant number of Week 17 snaps showing one thing and bailing to another. They often showed man coverage outside and in the slot with single high safety. Then they bailed to play Cover 3 at times, when they spent most of Week 3 in straight, non-disguised Cover 2. They played four across short while in Cover 3, which means they were rushing 4. Rodgers will need time to pass against that if they show it again.
5. But the Bears did not retreat to the same look each time. Bears D will mix it up. Driver's big catch on the TD drive came against the same front and presnap read as described in 4, but the Bears bailed to Cover 2 at the snap. Driver and Rodgers seemed to adjust on the fly to it and hit it where most vulnerable. Jennings big catch was against Cover 2 as well, on Rodgers third read.
6. Empty backfield worked in Week 3 with Finley, but was limited to one first down in Week 17.
7. Versus the Packers nickel, Forte had some good early runs to Walden's side (Bear's weak side in this case) off a trap block. After those runs, Capers went back to straight 3-4 in this drive. If memory serves, he did not do this the entire game, so an adjustment might have been made after this drive to the nickel.
8. Cutler's FO devised success rate is league best when he is scrambling.
9. Cutler had five escapes from the Packer pass rush and gained 45 yards and 3 first downs running in those 5 plays.
10. After a Week 3 shellacking, the Packers ST played the Bears ST even in Week 17.