What Will We Witness?

[Tarlam!]

We saw a shootout the last time these teams met and we Pack fans still have a residual bad taste at how it went down.

Two of the top defenses are squaring off this time around, so I doubt either team puts 30 plus on the board.

NFL.com has a good piece on Capers vs. LeBeau. Apparently, they fathered the 3-4 together. My belief is the kickers will make the difference.

Thoughts?

[Fritz]

Thoughts?

This line of yours is vaguely creepy: "Apparently, they fathered the 3-4 together."

Eeeewww!

[Bretsky]

I expect a high scoring game and I'd bet the over

If we can hold the Steelers rush their secondary can be exposed badly; and Big Ben is a gamer and I expect him to play above his head

[mraynrand]

Thoughts?

This line of yours is vaguely creepy: "Apparently, they fathered the 3-4 together."

Eeeewww!


Sounds like a really bad chapter in the Kama Sutra

[denverYooper]

An appropriately alliterative answer:

Raji rails rapist Roehtlisburger, Rodgers rumbles 'round rambunctiously.

Ten touchdowns to triumph!

[red]

i said it earlier in the season. the packers are not built for cold shitty weather. with our air attack we are much more built for playing indoors and in nice weather. and an article that came out a couple days ago seems to reinforce that idea. we are great in domes.

the steelers on the other hand are mudders. they are built like i thought we should be. they can grind it our it crappy weather

a-rod and the wr's are licking their chops right now. MM and his love for the verticle passing game is perfect for playing in the dome

our defenses should cancel each other out. capers and lebeau should know what the other guy is going to do and they should be figuring out how to beat it. i'm not scared at all of mendenhall, he had a nice game against the jets, but that was more of a freak game then anything. we've played and shut down better RB's. and our air attack is just way way better then theirs.

it really wouldn't surprise me if we come out with MM's foot putting the pedal all the way to the floor boards and we just blow them out. i really think we have the potential to do that

[MadtownPacker]

Damn great post Red. I agree, the game is there for the passing game to win it. With Starks drawing attention it should be enough to get at least one guy open. I like ARod's chances of finding him. IMO the bears defense was more concerning than the Steelers. I cant wait for the game.

[Freak Out]

The key is to fucking pour it on if we get a lead...don't get to fancy but keep working with what got ya there.

[vince]

The Bears' pass rush is average. The Packers o-line will be tested this week. If they play like they did in Detroit it will be a tough game.

[Joemailman]

The Bears' pass rush is average. The Packers o-line will be tested this week. If they play like they did in Detroit it will be a tough game.

Well, if Packers O-Line plays the way they played against Detroit, we'll probably see Matt Flynn at some point.

Rodgers and Roethlisberger are both great at evading the rush and finding someone open downfield. I think whichever one does it the best will be the MVP.

[VermontPackFan]

Low scoring defensive struggle is the way I see it, could come down to a Crosby field goal. If we cannot establish some sort of running game, Rodgers will be pounded and it will not be pretty. Our D will hold their offense in check, for us to win our offensive line has to play its best opening holes for Starks and protecting ARod.

[mmmdk]

The Bears' pass rush is average. The Packers o-line will be tested this week. If they play like they did in Detroit it will be a tough game.

This is what it comes down; Driver acknowledged this too yesterday. The Packers OL better be ready & focused or it'll be a long day. The pressures and looks, from Steelers front seven, will create havoc from the get go - hope our OL guys are there to fight.

This is our weak spot & Steelers know it.

[Tarlam!]

I agree, Michael. I am really worried about the Campen coached OL. I think you hit it dead on.

[mmmdk]

I agree, Michael. I am really worried about the Campen coached OL. I think you hit it dead on.

There is an "aber dabei"...for the Steelers D; if Rodgers is elusive'n'decisive & our receivers win the 1-on-1 battles plus zones....oh we win baby! :smile:

[Smeefers]

I think we spread em out all day long. With DD and Nelson in the slots and JJ and GJ outside. Force them to either put Harrison and Woodley into coverage or take them out of the game all together. They have a very strong linebacker crew, either attack it our take it out of the game. I don't want to see a lot of I formation 2 tight end sets out there. I want to see them force us to run. I want to see our passing game take over for our running game. If we force them to play the pass, our running game will catch on and if we throw them off balance enough they wont be able to stop us.

That's just me though.

[denverYooper]

I think we spread em out all day long. With DD and Nelson in the slots and JJ and GJ outside. Force them to either put Harrison and Woodley into coverage or take them out of the game all together. They have a very strong linebacker crew, either attack it our take it out of the game. I don't want to see a lot of I formation 2 tight end sets out there. I want to see them force us to run. I want to see our passing game take over for our running game. If we force them to play the pass, our running game will catch on and if we throw them off balance enough they wont be able to stop us.

That's just me though.

New England sure had success doing that and Green Bay has the technology. So I agree with you that it would be a good gameplan.

Boy, though, M3 would get lambasted for passing too much if Rodgers and/or the receivers didn't pull it off.

[mission]

Boy, though, M3 would get lambasted for passing too much if Rodgers and/or the receivers didn't pull it off.

I don't think so; if so, it would be the first time that's ever happened (complaining about passing too much).

Only thing I'll kill MM for is if we have the lead in the second half and he goes into turtle mode and we somehow lose it at the end. He's escaped that the last 5 games, but law of averages could kick in.

[bobblehead]

I don't think so; if so, it would be the first time that's ever happened (complaining about passing too much).

Only thing I'll kill MM for is if we have the lead in the second half and he goes into turtle mode and we somehow lose it at the end. He's escaped that the last 5 games, but law of averages could kick in.

I typically howl to start every year when MM forgets that running is an option, but I think those of you that fear him going into a shell in this game will be pleased. You simply can't run on Pitt, and you definately can't do it when they are expecting it. Even I won't complain if MM only calls around 15 run plays...but if it gets under that number I will be pissed.

[Freak Out]

Have we seen any hint that Starks can dive over a pile at the goal line?

[Tarlam!]

Have we seen any hint that Starks can dive over a pile at the goal line?

No, but they have a Freezer now.

[Lurker64]

NFL.com has a good piece on Capers vs. LeBeau. Apparently, they fathered the 3-4 together.

Strictly speaking Bud Wilkinson at the University of Oklahoma invented the 3-4 defense in the 1940s, as a variant of the older 5-2 defense (nobody really threw the ball underneath in the 40s). Chuck Fairbanks, who coached at Oklahoma, brought it with him to the NFL when he took a job with the Patriots in the 70s.

Capers and LeBeau however, deserve credit for inventing the zone blitz and the other engines which power the modern 3-4 defense. Though they borrowed inspiration for many of their concepts from Bum Phillips' 3-4 defense with the Oilers in the late 70s (whose defense ran called for many stunts, loops, and gap charges) they pioneered a lot of original concepts which every modern 3-4 defense borrows heavily from, the most important of which is the zone blitz.

But ultimately, there's still two major variants of the 3-4 defense in practice today. The philosophical division is about gap control and lane assignments vs. overloading and attacking, though it's becoming less and less of a gulf as time goes on as teams tend to borrow whatever works from their rivals. But it still shows up in some weird places, like how Dallas's nose tackle Jay Ratliff plays only one gap exclusively.

[MadtownPacker]

Low scoring defensive struggle is the way I see it, could come down to a Crosby field goal. If we cannot establish some sort of running game, Rodgers will be pounded and it will not be pretty. Our D will hold their offense in check, for us to win our offensive line has to play its best opening holes for Starks and protecting ARod.
If it comes down Crosby kicking it in a close one I will possibly cover my eyes for the first time ever. Yes it is that bad.

I think we spread em out all day long. With DD and Nelson in the slots and JJ and GJ outside. Force them to either put Harrison and Woodley into coverage or take them out of the game all together. They have a very strong linebacker crew, either attack it our take it out of the game. I don't want to see a lot of I formation 2 tight end sets out there. I want to see them force us to run. I want to see our passing game take over for our running game. If we force them to play the pass, our running game will catch on and if we throw them off balance enough they wont be able to stop us.

That's just me though.This is what i think is gonna happen also. Short and sweet passes with grinding runs mixed in will be the way to attack.


I agree, Michael. I am really worried about the Campen coached OL. I think you hit it dead on.
If it comes down to the OL stopping the pressure all day your yellow-bellied concern might be legit. ARod has to make plays. He already has against this D (last year). I say he does it again.

I don't think so; if so, it would be the first time that's ever happened (complaining about passing too much).

Only thing I'll kill MM for is if we have the lead in the second half and he goes into turtle mode and we somehow lose it at the end. He's escaped that the last 5 games, but law of averages could kick in.
I'm thinking M3 aint gonna do that this time.

[VegasPackFan]

I like Red's post - it fired me up. Additionally I believe that the Packer's passing game early will open up some big draws and screens. And if that succeeds the Pitt D will be on its heels!

[ThunderDan]

What you are going to see on Sunday is the Pack manhandling the Steelers like we did to the Falcons. The Packers are built for an indoor good weather game. We have speed on both the O and the D. The conditions will allow the Packers to use that speed instead of having to stand toe-to-toe with Pitt and slugging it out.

The Packers will use a lot of 4 and 5 WR/TE sets on O. They will try to spread the Pitt D out so they can't use all of the exotic blitzes LeBeau likes to run.

The Packers on D will run a lot of base 3-4 with Jenkins, Raji and Pickett to bottle up the Pitt running game. Once the Pack pulls ahead we will drop into our 2-4-5 with a lot of Raji and Jenkins. CMIII will be in Rothlessburger's face all day. Woodson will play everywhere. He will line up over the slot or TE and bring a lot of protection issues for Pitt to deal with. With Pouncey out for Pitt they will have a much harder time calling protection on the line.

I think it will finish up 41-27 with a couple of late scores by Pitt.

ARod will be MVP after going 23/29 for 345 and 4TDs (maybe one is a run).

[CaptainKickass]

An appropriately alliterative answer:

Raji rails rapist Roehtlisburger, Rodgers rumbles 'round rambunctiously.

Ten touchdowns to triumph!

Now if only that were also a Haiku


The key is to fucking pour it on if we get a lead...don't get to fancy but keep working with what got ya there.

+1


What you are going to see on Sunday is the Pack manhandling the Steelers like we did to the Falcons. The Packers will use a lot of 4 and 5 WR/TE sets on O. They will try to spread the Pitt D out so they can't use all of the exotic blitzes LeBeau likes to run.
The Packers on D will run a lot of base 3-4 with Jenkins, Raji and Pickett to bottle up the Pitt running game. Once the Pack pulls ahead we will drop into our 2-4-5 with a lot of Raji and Jenkins. CMIII will be in Rothlessburger's face all day. Woodson will play everywhere. He will line up over the slot or TE and bring a lot of protection issues for Pitt to deal with. With Pouncey out for Pitt they will have a much harder time calling protection on the line. I think it will finish up 41-27 with a couple of late scores by Pitt. ARod will be MVP after going 23/29 for 345 and 4TDs (maybe one is a run).

BARTENDER!

I'll have 2 of whatever he's drinking. Please.

[Fritz]

Well if they run a lot of four and five wide Rodgers better unload before the blitzes get there. Short, quick stuff. Frustrate the hell outta them.

[HarveyWallbangers]

This is for Tarlam:

Aussie Packers fan back for more (http://www.jsonline.com/news/wisconsin/115159004.html)

[sharpe1027]

i said it earlier in the season. the packers offense is not built for cold shitty weather. with our air attack we are much more built for playing indoors and in nice weather. and an article that came out a couple days ago seems to reinforce that idea. we are great in domes.

the steelers on the other hand are mudders. they are built like i thought we should be. they can grind it our it crappy weather

a-rod and the wr's are licking their chops right now. MM and his love for the verticle passing game is perfect for playing in the dome

our defenses should cancel each other out. capers and lebeau should know what the other guy is going to do and they should be figuring out how to beat it. i'm not scared at all of mendenhall, he had a nice game against the jets, but that was more of a freak game then anything. we've played and shut down better RB's. and our air attack is just way way better then theirs.

it really wouldn't surprise me if we come out with MM's foot putting the pedal all the way to the floor boards and we just blow them out. i really think we have the potential to do that

Minor suggested change to your post. There offense is not nearly as prolific in bad weather (of course all offenses struggle but the Packers more than some). I think they have shown that the team is good enough to win in shitty weather because of their defense and (I can't believe I'm saying this) special teams.

[Tarlam!]

This is for Tarlam:

Aussie Packers fan back for more (http://www.jsonline.com/news/wisconsin/115159004.html)

I love the guy! And his kids have a leg up in life!! No question why his wife married him; who wouldn't???!!!!????

Thanks for posting, Harv'.

[packrulz]

Balancing Act Won't Be Easy
By Tom Fanning
Posted 13 hours ago
IRVING, Texas - The Packers’ offense has been at its best this season when it has featured a good run-pass distribution, and the ability to do that in Super Bowl XLV will be put to the test by a stout Pittsburgh rushing defense.

In the Packers’ three road wins this postseason, they have topped the 30-carry mark in each game, a plateau that has been somewhat of a magic number since Head Coach Mike McCarthy took over in 2006. Green Bay has a 27-4 mark (.871), including playoff games, when running the ball 30 or more times in a game, including an 8-1 record (.889) this season.

If Green Bay runs the ball 30 times or more in Super Bowl XLV, it will be the first team this season to do so against a Pittsburgh defense that led the league in rushing defense at 62.8 yards per game. That average was the best in the league over the past decade behind only the 2006 Minnesota Vikings (61.6 yards per game), a defense that was run by Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin.

“The guys have been around each other for a while and they are an experienced bunch,” center Scott Wells said. “They have played in a lot of games, a lot of big games together, so that helps. Their scheme has been in place for a while. A lot of these guys have come into the league and stayed in the same scheme and have developed in that scheme.

“When you add to it outstanding athletes, which is what they have, and really well-coached athletes, I think that is why their defense has been successful.”

The Steelers’ 3-4 front is anchored by nose tackle Casey Hampton, a five-time Pro Bowl selection. Veteran defensive end Brett Keisel earned his first Pro Bowl bid this season as well, and the front’s ability to occupy blockers often allows the Steelers’ linebackers to make plays.

“I think they are just a very fundamentally solid team,” guard Daryn Colledgesaid. “They have got guys that can play gap defense, they’ve got guys that can play man-to-man defense. If you’ve got guys that can hold up two guys every single time you are trying to run the ball, then you are letting somebody go free, and that’s what they do a great job of.”

One of those fundamentals is tackling, and the Steelers’ ability to execute in that area was on display with the lack of explosive runs they allowed. Pittsburgh gave up just one 20-yard run all season, a 24-yard gain by Oakland running back Michael Bush in Week 11. Not since the 1997 Jacksonville Jaguars had an NFL team given up just one 20-yard run in a season, and Pittsburgh’s 22 runs of 10-plus yards allowed in 2010 were the fewest given up by a team in the league this decade.

“One of the things in defensive football from an offensive perspective is they don’t give up a lot of big plays in the running game,” offensive coordinator Joe Philbin said. “The reason is most explosive runs in the league are generated by a back making a safety or a linebacker miss at the second level. Since they tackle so well, you don’t see an awful lot of that.”

The Steelers were especially stingy on first down, with 97-of-173 (56.1 percent) first-down runs by their opponents going for 2 yards or fewer this season. Pittsburgh allowed its opponents an average of just 2.69 yards rushing on first down, the No. 1 mark in the NFL. Not surprisingly, that early-down success led to efficiency on third down as well, with Pittsburgh’s opponents converting just 33.5 percent of the time.

“When they are putting you in long third downs and long second downs all of the time, they have the ability to rush a lot,” Colledge said. “The fact is they can bring a pressure and rush from anywhere with the defense they run, and that makes it difficult for an offensive line. So we’ve got to find a way to limit the long down-and-distances.”

Being able to run the ball on Sunday would help slow down a Pittsburgh pass rush that produced a league-high 48 sacks this season.

“You need the defense to respect your ability to run the football,” Wells said. “A lot of our successful plays this year have been play-action passes. Without a run game, those plays don’t work.

“You don’t have to be 50-50 in the calls, but you have to have them respect your ability to run the ball so they have to play it and scheme it on defense.”

The Packers got off to a fast start in the NFC Championship win at Chicago, rushing for 104 yards on 18 carries (5.8 avg.) in the first half, their most in an opening half all season. That contributed to a 252-yard, 17-first down offensive performance in the first half before the Bears limited Green Bay to just 16 yards on 14 carries (1.1 avg.) after the break.

“We had very good balance in that first half,” Philbin said. “That’s the kind of rhythm we need on Sunday. Obviously they did a better job against us in the second half. We kind of struggled a little bit, and we’ve got to get it back. We are best when we can keep people off balance and keep them guessing a little bit.”

In the 2009 matchup against the Steelers at Heinz Field, Green Bay largely abandoned the run with a season-low 12 attempts for 60 yards (5.0 avg.) as quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw for 383 yards and three touchdowns on a career-high 48 passing attempts. While it may seem logical to just focus again on spreading the Steelers out all game and throwing the ball 40-plus times, that is easier said than done.

“It’s hard when a defense can make an offense one-dimensional,” Philbin said. “To have our offensive line just sit back every play and block a myriad of twists and blitzes and pressures, without having any type of curveball for them, that makes it difficult.

“I think if you look at our history, when we have really performed at a high level on offense, a lot of times you see us with the ability to use a wide array of our offense. In other words we have been able to run the ball, we have been able to use three-step drops, we have been able to run some screens, we have been able to throw the ball vertically down the field, we have been able to throw movement passes and move Rodgers around. That’s when we are really at our best in normal down-and-distance. For us to put up a lot of points and do that, I would think we are going to have to do some of those things again on Sunday.”

[RashanGary]

Like others have said, we need to spread them out. 4 wide with Starks or Jackson is probably ideal. The reason: When Troy Polamalu is in base or nickle he has a lot more open responsibility. Go 4 wide, and the DB's roles become much more defined. Go 5 wide and I think they're pretty much set in stone. There are only so many ways to cover 5 guys.

4 and 5 wide does a few things:

1. Gets their dominant base defense off the field
2. Better defines Troy P's role


EDIT: just read Philbin's write up. Maybe he knows more than me. Still, gonna have to see'em spread out a little.

[Tarlam!]

EDIT: just read Philbin's write up. Maybe he knows more than me. Still, gonna have to see'em spread out a little.

Na, JH. Nobody knows more than you!:-D

[Smeefers]

Well, it looks like the 4 and 5 wide sets isn't such a bad idea after all

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AsivStwIQloM2Ed7KMFS58c5nYcB?slug=jc-steelersdefensivevulnerability020211

[HarveyWallbangers]

I love the guy! And his kids have a leg up in life!! No question why his wife married him; who wouldn't???!!!!????

Thanks for posting, Harv'.

The guy is nuts. He'd have to be up for most diehard Packer backer. The Pack cost him his job and almost his wife, but he never waivered. :)

[Smidgeon]

I just read a post on ESPN's NFC North blog where statistically the Steelers have been really good against 3 and 4 WR sets (second only to GB in opponent's pass rate). In both sets they've had more interceptions than TDs (actually, now I'm not sure about the 3 WR set, but definitely the 4 WR set). And the post also concedes that GB is stronger 1-4 than perhaps any other team, so maybe they break the trend. But something to keep in mind.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I just read a post on ESPN's NFC North blog where statistically the Steelers have been really good against 3 and 4 WR sets (second only to GB in opponent's pass rate). In both sets they've had more interceptions than TDs (actually, now I'm not sure about the 3 WR set, but definitely the 4 WR set). And the post also concedes that GB is stronger 1-4 than perhaps any other team, so maybe they break the trend. But something to keep in mind.

Against the two best QBs they faced (Brady and Brees), they weren't very successful. New Orleans and New England spread them out, and they gave up a lot of passing yards and points. And they lost both games. I think we'll move the ball, but we'll need to avoid turnovers and score TDs in the red zone instead of kicking FGs. Of course, you could say that about every game.

No disrespect to the Steelers, but their defense reminds me a bit of the Packers defense last year. Statistically, they were great. However, great QBs exposed them.

[RashanGary]

No disrespect to the Steelers, but their defense reminds me a bit of the Packers defense last year. Statistically, they were great. However, great QBs exposed them.

Nice find. I hope it plays out this way. I know our defense can hold them in check. I'm hoping our offense can score.

[VermontPackFan]

What you are going to see on Sunday is the Pack manhandling the Steelers like we did to the Falcons.


I like your thinking ThunderDan!

[RashanGary]

Against the two best QBs they faced (Brady and Brees), they weren't very successful. New Orleans and New England spread them out, and they gave up a lot of passing yards and points. And they lost both games. I think we'll move the ball, but we'll need to avoid turnovers and score TDs in the red zone instead of kicking FGs. Of course, you could say that about every game.

No disrespect to the Steelers, but their defense reminds me a bit of the Packers defense last year. Statistically, they were great. However, great QBs exposed them.

I went back and looked at it. Against good passers, they were really beaten up. Even Flacco and Palmer had success against them. Our OL is playing well right now. We're going to have to keep Harrison and Woodley off balance, but AR should be able to get big yardage totals. Gonna have to be careful not to throw picks. I don't picture them doing much against us. As time goes, I'm feeling better and better about this one.

[pbmax]

What you are going to see on Sunday is the Pack manhandling the Steelers like we did to the Falcons. The Packers are built for an indoor good weather game. We have speed on both the O and the D. The conditions will allow the Packers to use that speed instead of having to stand toe-to-toe with Pitt and slugging it out.

The Packers will use a lot of 4 and 5 WR/TE sets on O. They will try to spread the Pitt D out so they can't use all of the exotic blitzes LeBeau likes to run.

The Packers on D will run a lot of base 3-4 with Jenkins, Raji and Pickett to bottle up the Pitt running game. Once the Pack pulls ahead we will drop into our 2-4-5 with a lot of Raji and Jenkins. CMIII will be in Rothlessburger's face all day. Woodson will play everywhere. He will line up over the slot or TE and bring a lot of protection issues for Pitt to deal with. With Pouncey out for Pitt they will have a much harder time calling protection on the line.

I think it will finish up 41-27 with a couple of late scores by Pitt.

ARod will be MVP after going 23/29 for 345 and 4TDs (maybe one is a run).

Welcome back.

[Bretsky]

I just read a post on ESPN's NFC North blog where statistically the Steelers have been really good against 3 and 4 WR sets (second only to GB in opponent's pass rate). In both sets they've had more interceptions than TDs (actually, now I'm not sure about the 3 WR set, but definitely the 4 WR set). And the post also concedes that GB is stronger 1-4 than perhaps any other team, so maybe they break the trend. But something to keep in mind.

Brady ate them alive with a less talented group of WR's

[Bretsky]

I went back and looked at it. Against good passers, they were really beaten up. Even Flacco and Palmer had success against them. Our OL is playing well right now. We're going to have to keep Harrison and Woodley off balance, but AR should be able to get big yardage totals. Gonna have to be careful not to throw picks. I don't picture them doing much against us. As time goes, I'm feeling better and better about this one.


They have been moving Woodley around lately trying to expose the weakest link on the OL; I expect to see a lot of blitzing to the outside of Bulaga. They are going to try to expose his lack of speed and we need hm to be at least average.

[Bossman641]

Like others have said, spread the Steelers out and get a better look at where they want to blitz from. The combination of Rodgers' ability to read defenses pre-snap and Jackson's blitz pickups will be huge.