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woodbuck27
08-10-2006, 01:43 PM
Updated: Aug. 8, 2006, 1:44 PM ET




Favre and Roethlisberger among worst decision makers (in 2005)

By KC Joyner

ESPN Insider
Archive

Editor's note: This is an expanded version of a passage that appears in Scientific Football 2006.

I track more than 100 metrics in every NFL game, but the most misunderstood and controversial of these has to be the bad decision metric for quarterbacks. The bad decision metric is the method I use to track a quarterback's mistakes. Simply put, if the quarterback makes a decision with the ball that either could have led or did lead to a turnover, he is debited with a bad decision on the play.

The most common types of bad decisions are:

1. Forcing a pass into coverage
2. Staring at a receiver
3. Throwing the ball despite being tackled
4. Misreading a zone defense and not seeing a defender in the passing lane.

On each of these types of plays, the quarterback is noted as having made a bad decision. There are game situations that can force a quarterback to throw the ball into coverage (e.g., on fourth-and-30, Hail Mary plays, etc.) that will not be ruled as bad decisions.

If the quarterback's mistake did not lead to a turnover (e.g., a dropped interception, a recovered fumble, etc.), the mistake is given only one bad decision point. If the mistake led to a turnover, however, it is given two mistake points and also is subject to a graduating scale of points based on how damaging the turnover was (e.g., an additional point for an interception killing a scoring drive, another additional point if the interception led to the opponent's being set up in scoring position, etc.). The scale has an upper limit of five points for any single bad decision.

Bad decision rankings are based on two percentage bases.

The first is the standard bad decision percentage. To calculate this, I take the number of bad decisions a quarterback generated and divide it by the total number of attempts.

The second percentage rating is the weighted bad decision percentage. This is calculated by taking the number of bad decision points and dividing it by the total number of attempts.

So, which quarterbacks were the best and worst decision makers in the NFL in 2005 according to Scientific Football 2006? At the bottom, I'll list the top five and bottom five in each category. But first, I'll analyze some of the more interesting QBs and where they fell as good or bad decision makers.

Good decision makers:

• Tom Brady: The best decision maker in 2005 was Tom Brady, and it wasn't even a close race. Brady made only four bad decisions in 549 attempts, which equates to a ridiculously low 0.7 percent bad decision percentage. No other quarterback came close to falling under the 1 percent mark in that category. Brady also had only nine bad decision points, and his 1.6 percent weighted bad decision percentage was also easily the best.

• Drew Bledsoe: The perception of Bledsoe is that he makes a lot of mistakes, but the metrics tell a different story. Bledsoe did rank next to last in the NFL for most interceptions thrown last year (17), but he had just 10 bad decisions. His 1.9 percent bad decision rate was the fourth best in the league, and he was only 0.2 percentage points behind Peyton Manning in that category. Bledsoe did have 21 bad decision points (tied for 28th worst in that category), but his high number of pass attempts meant his weighted bad decision percentage barely missed making the top 10.

• Byron Leftwich: Leftwich often is lauded for a number of his positive traits but his good decision making isn't normally one of them. It should be, as Leftwich ranked in the top seven in both bad decision and weighted bad decision percentage. That he did this despite throwing the second-highest percentage of deep passes (nearly 20 percent of his pass attempts were deep) is a testament to his ability to be aggressive while simultaneously protecting the ball.

Bad decision makers:

• Aaron Brooks: Brooks had a number of problems last year, but his biggest by far was his decision making. His 4.9 percent bad decision percentage was the fifth worst in the NFL, and his weighted bad decision percentage was almost into double digits (9.8 percent). Those percentages were nearly twice as high as his 2004 totals, so he is certainly capable of performing better.

• Matt Hasselbeck: Hasselbeck had a fantastic season last year almost across the board, but his 17 bad decisions and 26 bad decision points were both tied for the seventh-highest total in their respective categories. The West Coast offense operated by the Seahawks is not a high-risk offense, and that makes Hasselbeck's performance in this metric a bit more perplexing.

• Brett Favre: It should come as no surprise that Favre had the highest number of bad decisions and bad decision points in 2005. To put his 53 bad decision points into perspective, one could add the totals of nearly any two other quarterbacks in the NFL last year and they still wouldn't surpass Favre's total. Favre's saving grace from a percentage perspective was his extremely high number of pass attempts (he was the only quarterback to top 600 attempts in 2005), but he still ranked in the bottom 10 in both bad decision percentage categories. Green Bay will need a dramatic improvement from Favre in this aspect of his game if the Packers want to be competitive in 2006.

• Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben's 2005 season provides proof that you can win despite having high bad decision percentages. Roethlisberger ranked dead last in the bad decision percentage category and had the fifth-highest weighted bad decision percentage. He was able to get away with those elevated percentages because he had by far the highest yards per pass attempt in 2005 (9.1 yards, the only QB to top the 9-yard mark). If the YPA number drops at all in 2006, Roethlisberger's bad decision percentages will need to show improvement.

Comment:

That was based on the 2005 season. :mrgreen:

Noodle
08-10-2006, 02:02 PM
Very interesting post, thanks Woody.

This is the kind of metric that Patler's going to dig.

The magnitude of Favre's bad decisionmaking is breathtaking. My gosh, he's as bad as Brooks and Ben "I don't need a helmet because no law says I need one" R!

I'd like to see how Favre has done over the years -- maybe his decisions have always been piss poor (I think many of them have, but not to the extent of last year) but his talent allowed him to get away with it.

Anyway, I think we'll know early this year whether he's going to repeat 2005.

And if he does, then sit him down, end the streak, and get A-Rod in there. After all, it would be best for the team.

Tony Oday
08-10-2006, 02:06 PM
Bah he had a bad year. That was last year guys drink the Kool-aid!!! hehe

woodbuck27
08-10-2006, 02:15 PM
Very interesting post, thanks Woody.

This is the kind of metric that Patler's going to dig.

The magnitude of Favre's bad decisionmaking is breathtaking. My gosh, he's as bad as Brooks and Ben "I don't need a helmet because no law says I need one" R!

I'd like to see how Favre has done over the years -- maybe his decisions have always been piss poor (I think many of them have, but not to the extent of last year) but his talent allowed him to get away with it.

Anyway, I think we'll know early this year whether he's going to repeat 2005.

And if he does, then sit him down, end the streak, and get A-Rod in there. After all, it would be best for the team.

That wasn't easy for me to post Noodle, but I won't play politics. I am 100% behind Brett Favre, and I feel he was way too hard on himself last season but at times solid as well. That's not to excuse his overall poor play in 2005.

If you look at Brett's career he has always played every down to win. More often than not he found a way. Not enough real ways last season Noodle, but that's behind him and us.

Brett Favre will show us all, that he's a solid to great QB again this season.

GO PACKERS ! HOLD THE FAITH in 2006 !!

Astonishment
08-10-2006, 02:22 PM
Hasselbeck being on there was the biggest supprise to me. I don't think he is as good as his season last year, and I know he is a bit of a gambler, but I would have thought he would be that low.

On the other hand it is nice to see Leftwhich up there. To me he is the most under rated QB in the game (with Delhome a close 2nd). He continually leads a sub par offense (due to injury, age, or headcases) to respectability.

Packnut
08-10-2006, 02:25 PM
This system is so flawed that it's laughable! Throwing into pass coverage? Are you freaking kidding me? In today's NFL, 80% of throws are into coverage. The key is WR separation when the ball is thrown.

Gee let's not take any consideration about the pass rush or the game conditions at the time the pass was thrown. Was the QB playing from behind? Did everyone know pass was coming? Did the team have ANY kind of a running game?

Here is another HUGE flaw in the system. Are you gonna tell me that Brady and Favre had the same talent surrounding them? I got news for ya. Brady had a solid O line, a running game and at least 2 good WR's not to mention a coach that has forgotten more than Sherman ever learned.

Favre threw into double coverage often last year because Driver is the only one with the talent capable of beating the double team. Where else was he suppossed to throw it? To Fergy? We all know what a disaster that turned out to be. Franks? Hurt most of the season. Gado? His strength was not coming out of the backfield catching anything.

We had a 2 man offense last year. Favre and Driver. Period

Homer Jay
08-10-2006, 02:29 PM
Anybody else notice that 2 of the worst decision makers played in the Super Bowl?

gbgary
08-10-2006, 02:40 PM
i don't think Brett was consciously making decisions...he was just reacting. he was in a no-lose situation. wait a minute....we lost all season long. LOL

woodbuck27
08-10-2006, 02:44 PM
This system is so flawed that it's laughable! Throwing into pass coverage? Are you freaking kidding me? In today's NFL, 80% of throws are into coverage. The key is WR separation when the ball is thrown.

Gee let's not take any consideration about the pass rush or the game conditions at the time the pass was thrown. Was the QB playing from behind? Did everyone know pass was coming? Did the team have ANY kind of a running game?

Here is another HUGE flaw in the system. Are you gonna tell me that Brady and Favre had the same talent surrounding them? I got news for ya. Brady had a solid O line, a running game and at least 2 good WR's not to mention a coach that has forgotten more than Sherman ever learned.

Favre threw into double coverage often last year because Driver is the only one with the talent capable of beating the double team. Where else was he suppossed to throw it? To Fergy? We all know what a disaster that turned out to be. Franks? Hurt most of the season. Gado? His strength was not coming out of the backfield catching anything.

We had a 2 man offense last year. Favre and Driver. Period

When your right - YOUR RIGHT !

fan4life
08-10-2006, 05:14 PM
Anybody else notice that 2 of the worst decision makers played in the Super Bowl?
You beat me to it, Homer Jay. Maybe, just maybe, a risk-taking QB who isn't afraid to go after a win is part of the winning formula.

Homer Jay
08-10-2006, 05:22 PM
Anybody else notice that 2 of the worst decision makers played in the Super Bowl?
You beat me to it, Homer Jay. Maybe, just maybe, a risk-taking QB who isn't afraid to go after a win is part of the winning formula.

Especially if you have a running game and a defenses that can get you the ball back. Favre made plenty of mistakes, I just wonder how Big Ben would have done with last years Packers.

Patler
08-10-2006, 07:42 PM
You might find this shocking, coming from me and all, but that is about as useless of a statiistical evaluation as I have ever seen.

1. A QB with bad receivers will make lots of bad decisions, because no one will be open.
2. A QB with one receiver much better than all the others will make lots of bad decisions because he will always be double covered.
3. A QB with a rocket arm will tend to make a lot of bad decisions because he will throw into tighter spots that others will never try.
4. A QB who never goes down field will tend to make a higher percentage of good decisions just by the nature of the plays being run.

Unlike a pure statistical evaluation (he caught it or he didn't) what he is attempting to do is a qualitative decision (was it good or bad?) That type of evaluation can not be made without taking into consideration the player and team involved. For example, Holmgren used to say that they wanted Favre to throw passes that he would not allow others on the roster try, because Favre can drill it in. That's what separates an Elway or a Favre from some of the other QBs. How many times have we seen Favre drill a receiver with a defender right there, but the ball comes so quickly the defender can't react? Elway used to do the same thing. Under this guys evaluation, those would be bad decisions.

Is it only a bad decision if the pass is incomplete or intercepted? That's what it seems, but that's ridiculous. The QB's decision doesn't change from good to bad just because his receivers have bad hands. Nor does it change from bad to good just because the receiver makes a great catch.

Does he observe the entire field, and evalaute the decision based on what the QB's other options were? Maybe it was the best of a bad situation. What about the QB who throws short to a receiver that is single covered, ignoring the receiver running all alone way down field because two defenders ran into each other. Is THAT a good decision by the QB?

I enjoy a good statistical analysis, but thisdoes not seem to be one of them.

woodbuck27
08-10-2006, 07:48 PM
Nice job Patler. :mrgreen: