This is how I felt all year about JJ........

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

I started doubting how I felt about him after watching drop big pass after big pass in the playoffs. But this guy makes a lot of sense and basically somes up how I feel about our WR situation.

http://packerupdate.net/?p=9629

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Jennings, Jones, Nelson, and Finley are all just entering their prime. I hope we can keep them together long term.

[bobblehead]

I agree with the writer. DD is ready to accept a backup role....he may still remain the starter in name, but Jordy and JJ need equal snaps. DD needs a modest paycut to help us resign JJ and if he is willing to take it, I would love all of them to be back together (plus replace swain with a return specialist)

[RashanGary]

I agree with the writer. DD is ready to accept a backup role....he may still remain the starter in name, but Jordy and JJ need equal snaps. DD needs a modest paycut to help us resign JJ and if he is willing to take it, I would love all of them to be back together (plus replace swain with a return specialist)

That's ideal. One more year for DD. Next year, when Jordy needs his deal redone, that's when Driver's value really drops. .

[Lurker64]

I'm not sure I would want to make JJ the #2 ahead of Jordy. I agree that shifting DD to a backup and/or roleplayer is probably the best decision.

[vince]

If the contract situaiton were reversed it'd be a no-brainer but it isn't. Driver is under contract and JJ is not. That makes a huge difference here.

In my world, the Packers let JJ walk and draft a guy like Torrey Smith to upgrade that spot. Keep DD onboard for leadership and chemistry while giving Jordy more opportunities and bringing Smith into the mix.

[Fritz]

I wonder why, as I think you or PB pointed out - or somebody - Jones's drops all seemed to come on passes that were traveling in the same direction he was. What's up with that dynamic, I wonder?

[Joemailman]

I wonder why, as I think you or PB pointed out - or somebody - Jones's drops all seemed to come on passes that were traveling in the same direction he was. What's up with that dynamic, I wonder?

Something to do with peripheral vision? Does he have more trouble seeing the ball when he has to turn his head to see the ball? Who knows? Maybe he's just trying to run with it before he's actually caught it.

[vince]

Some have said that perhaps it's a vision thing, but I don't think so. McCarthy attributed it to concentration. Obviously no one can get inside his head, but that would tend to explain the fumbles he's had too.

I haven't tracked his drops but he seems to have trouble catching the ball with his thumbs out. Receiver should always try get their thumbs together and grab it because you have more control but that's not always doable, particularly with the over-the-shoulder throws down the sideline.

McCarthy also noted a hand injury at one point, which could have an impact too. If he had a sprain in the lower digit area it would tend to make those balls tougher to hang onto. Tough to say.

What you can say is that he's been pretty consistently inconsistent. He's a guy I certainly wouldn't be excited at the prospect of committing millions of valuable dollars and multiple years to, particularly when you have three (four with Finley) other guys who can get it done and don't get enough opportunities as it is, the opportunity to get a young one to develop and only one ball to spread around.

[get louder at lambeau]

As JustJeff at packersnews.net pointed out, the over-the -shoulder catches have the receiver catching with the thumbs pointing out instead of in. It's a very different catch to make.

[vince]

Jones has trouble catching them, but he's not the only one that runs that route. Here are the stats for all the receivers over the last couple years, as compiled by Bob McGinn. He has gone through and identified the drops individually, obviously using his own judgement as to what constitutes a "drop."

http://www.jsonline.com/packerinsider/116451263.html


Of the six Packers who were the target of more than 25 passes in 20 games, Greg Jennings had the lowest drop rate. By subjective judgment (there can be no other when it comes to dropped passes), Jennings dropped six of 159 for a rate of 3.77%. It's also a career low for Jennings, who dropped five of 103 (4.85%) in 2006, eight of 99 (8.08%) in '07, nine of 138 (6.52%) in '08 and six of 128 (4.69%) in '09.

As for the other top wide receivers, Donald Driver dropped seven of 101 (6.93%), James Jones dropped 10 of 101 (9.9%) and Jordy Nelson dropped 10 of 92 (10.87%). Brett Swain dropped one of 11 (9.1%).

Jones' drop rates were 9.1% in 2007, 13.8% in '08 and 11.9% in '09. Nelson dropped just four of 83 passes (4.8%) in his first two seasons.

Jordy had some drops this year, but that's an anomaly for his career so far. Jones has consistently been at the top of the list when it comes to drop rate.

[packerbacker1234]

Honestly I'm not overly concerned. If Jones walks to another team, he walks. It's not like "OMG WE"RE SCREWED".

Keep in mind that the writer still admits Driver is a servicable WR when healthy. Driver proved that this year the few games he was 100% in, especially early in the season when Jennings was in his slump - DD really stepped it up. He's also a leader in the clubhouse and has so much respect from his teammates that the Greg Jennings referred to Driver as the #1 WR in the offense, even if that clearly isn't the case. Thats a hell of a lot of respect amongst pears.

Driver isn't going anywhere. Jones may choose to leave because he now realizes he may not get a shot at #2 next year, and frankly NELSON may have stepped over jones for #3 after that Super Bowl performance. You know, the same Super Bowl where Jones dropped yet another potential TD pass. Nelson had his drops, but he came right back. Jones drop was bigger, and less excusable given where the ball was placed and the daylight jones has. That is what is baffling about Jones - he gets open, but he drops THE EASY stuff.

I would love to keep Jones, but the problem is with Driver around Jones is #4 entering next year, not #3. There is no way you can put him ahead of Nelson right now.

As for as many drops as Driver had, he and Jones had the exact same number of targets and Jones had more drops. Jones has consistently been dropping passes every year, while Driver has usually kept his rate under 7% for his career (as he also did this year) which is about average for any "good" wr.

[gbgary]

since we're constantly running wrs in and out, ranks two thru four really don't exsist. jennings is the clear number one but after that being in three and four wr sets most of the time makes the term back-up wr a misnomer. to me the only back up wr we have is swain. since we have greater needs in other positions the chances of getting a wr better than jones are slim. i think he should be resigned. maybe draft a wr, later in the draft, to take swains place. speaking of running guys in and out, i was distressed early in the season when i saw jennings on the sidelines when we had the ball. he should be in there nearly every play.

[Joemailman]

If some team offers JJ legitimate starter money, I don't think you match it. With Finley back, he becomes your #2 receiver, and Jordy is fine as #3. The thing is, with Finley and Quarless, the Packers won't be using 4 WR sets as much. Draft somebody in the first 3 rounds and let him learn from Jennings and Driver before he takes over for Driver in 2012.

[Jimx29]

don't let the door hit ya where the good lord split ya JJ

[Smidgeon]

Honestly I'm not overly concerned. If Jones walks to another team, he walks. It's not like "OMG WE"RE SCREWED".

Keep in mind that the writer still admits Driver is a servicable WR when healthy. Driver proved that this year the few games he was 100% in, especially early in the season when Jennings was in his slump - DD really stepped it up. He's also a leader in the clubhouse and has so much respect from his teammates that the Greg Jennings referred to Driver as the #1 WR in the offense, even if that clearly isn't the case. Thats a hell of a lot of respect amongst pears.

Driver isn't going anywhere. Jones may choose to leave because he now realizes he may not get a shot at #2 next year, and frankly NELSON may have stepped over jones for #3 after that Super Bowl performance. You know, the same Super Bowl where Jones dropped yet another potential TD pass. Nelson had his drops, but he came right back. Jones drop was bigger, and less excusable given where the ball was placed and the daylight jones has. That is what is baffling about Jones - he gets open, but he drops THE EASY stuff.

I would love to keep Jones, but the problem is with Driver around Jones is #4 entering next year, not #3. There is no way you can put him ahead of Nelson right now.

As for as many drops as Driver had, he and Jones had the exact same number of targets and Jones had more drops. Jones has consistently been dropping passes every year, while Driver has usually kept his rate under 7% for his career (as he also did this year) which is about average for any "good" wr.

Plus, keep in mind, TT has shown himself especially adept at drafting WRs...unlike OL (unless that was the coaches bringing out the talent--in which case I hope that whoever invented stickum will be the next WR coach).

And I disagree about Jones being #4. I think M3 uses #3 and #4 equally. Which conceivably means that Driver will slip to #4 next year with Jones (if he's back) and Nelson both being co-#2s.

[Smidgeon]

If some team offers JJ legitimate starter money, I don't think you match it. With Finley back, he becomes your #2 receiver, and Jordy is fine as #3. The thing is, with Finley and Quarless, the Packers won't be using 4 WR sets as much. Draft somebody in the first 3 rounds and let him learn from Jennings and Driver before he takes over for Driver in 2012.

A year after the entire offense was designed around him? Do you think they'll balance better between Jennings and Finley next year (honest question)?

[packerbacker1234]

I think AR determines everything. Throw to who is open. Finely first read, then just whoever is open if he's covered. If everyone is covered, tuck and run, or a force a tight high pass to finely where only he can get it.

Rodgers spreads the ball around pretty well. When we had finely it was Finely and Driver seeing most the balls, which makes some sense. Driver is an excellent route runner, so as a progression read he is great at passing off too over the middle or on a comeback after Finely clears the area. Once Finely went down, Jennings stepped it up and took over that role because he is oru best all around WR.

It's interesting, but the passing game seems to always go to "if your teh guy open, your the one getting the ball".

[Smidgeon]

As a viewer, I think Rodgers was focusing too much on Finley until he got hurt. Because it took a whole extra game before Jennings "stepped up". I think that Rodgers spreading it around came after. And hopefully it's a habit he'll keep going into next year after growing into the Super Bowl MVP caliber player. We'll see.

[swede]

I think AR determines everything. Throw to who is open. Finely first read, then just whoever is open if he's covered. If everyone is covered, tuck and run, or a force a tight high pass to finely where only he can get it.

Rodgers spreads the ball around pretty well. When we had finely it was Finely and Driver seeing most the balls, which makes some sense. Driver is an excellent route runner, so as a progression read he is great at passing off too over the middle or on a comeback after Finely clears the area. Once Finely went down, Jennings stepped it up and took over that role because he is oru best all around WR.

It's interesting, but the passing game seems to always go to "if your teh guy open, your the one getting the ball".

Moral of the story: If you are a Green Bay receiver, run every route as if you ARE the hot read. AR sees all.

[bobblehead]

As JustJeff at packersnews.net pointed out, the over-the -shoulder catches have the receiver catching with the thumbs pointing out instead of in. It's a very different catch to make.

I doubt that is it. Its timing. It is much easier to mentally time when the ball is about to arrive when you have clear view of it either in front of you, or crossing your path. Run outside and have your best friend throw you 5 passes as you run at him and 5 passes over your shoulder. Tell me what is the harder catch. The head has to look up and back to locate a ball over the shoulder. Then you are running full out and bouncing that vision around. Now on top of all that you must figure in the descent of the ball into your hands. Just a shitload more to account for than any other catch.

[get louder at lambeau]

I doubt that is it. Its timing. It is much easier to mentally time when the ball is about to arrive when you have clear view of it either in front of you, or crossing your path. Run outside and have your best friend throw you 5 passes as you run at him and 5 passes over your shoulder. Tell me what is the harder catch. The head has to look up and back to locate a ball over the shoulder. Then you are running full out and bouncing that vision around. Now on top of all that you must figure in the descent of the ball into your hands. Just a shitload more to account for than any other catch.

Yeah, that too. It's still a much less natural hand position to grab something. You aren't catching with your index fingers and thumbs in a diamond pattern when it's over your shoulder.

YOU run outside and have your friend throw passes at you, all from in front of you, only you have to "basket catch" some of them with your thumbs out, and others you can catch the normal way, thumbs in. You tell me which is harder to catch.

[RashanGary]

And Rodgers throws a different kind of over teh shoulder throw. I'm used the that nice floater over your head that every kid loves to run under and take for 6. Not w/ Rodgers. Rodgers throws frickin darts. To his credit, they're right on the money, but they are to and through a WR's hands before you can say, "JJ is a tard"

[bobblehead]

Yeah, that too. It's still a much less natural hand position to grab something. You aren't catching with your index fingers and thumbs in a diamond pattern when it's over your shoulder.

YOU run outside and have your friend throw passes at you, all from in front of you, only you have to "basket catch" some of them with your thumbs out, and others you can catch the normal way, thumbs in. You tell me which is harder to catch.

I tended to basket catch even that way. Probably why I played OL.

[King Friday]

I certainly don't feel like we NEED to keep Jones. Nelson proved his worth this postseason with an outstanding body of work. That is going to really help his confidence and development. He did have a few drops, but it seemed like he would respond with a big catch soon after. He also is a guy who can be used as a kickoff returner if needed (not saying I want him to be the main kick returner) so that increases his value some as well. Rodgers seems to have great confidence in Nelson as well. Driver still has 2 good years left, albeit in a reduced role. Jennings and Finley should be Pro Bowl studs in the short term.

We have plenty of ammo for Rodgers to use. If Jones doesn't want to stay for a reasonable amount...I'm sure Ted can find a replacement. Jones isn't an All Pro...and the NCAA is full of talented WRs these days.

[King Friday]

I doubt that is it. Its timing. It is much easier to mentally time when the ball is about to arrive when you have clear view of it either in front of you, or crossing your path. Run outside and have your best friend throw you 5 passes as you run at him and 5 passes over your shoulder. Tell me what is the harder catch. The head has to look up and back to locate a ball over the shoulder. Then you are running full out and bouncing that vision around. Now on top of all that you must figure in the descent of the ball into your hands. Just a shitload more to account for than any other catch.

If an over the shoulder pass hits you in the numbers in stride, its one of the EASIEST catches to make because you can make a basket and trap it against your chest. I'll agree that for over the shoulder passes NOT on the numbers, the degree of difficulty goes up exponentially.

[prime311]

With Jimmy Robinson in Dallas I think the most likely conclusion is that we'll see Jones there. I would like to keep Jones, he's deceptively fast like Greg Jennings and is the only guy that can really stretch the field if for some reason Jennings gets hurt. That might be too much of a luxury though.

[swede]

John Dorsey said the draft is deep in O tackles, D ends, and the top end of the receiving group.

Maybe the BPA will be a receiver when the 32nd pick rolls around.

Heh heh. The 32nd pick. :)

[ThunderDan]

If an over the shoulder pass hits you in the numbers in stride, its one of the EASIEST catches to make because you can make a basket and trap it against your chest. I'll agree that for over the shoulder passes NOT on the numbers, the degree of difficulty goes up exponentially.

An over the shoulder pass can never hit a receiver in the numbers unless it is underthrown and hits the WR in the back. Ha ha ha.

[get louder at lambeau]

If an over the shoulder pass hits you in the numbers in stride, its one of the EASIEST catches to make because you can make a basket and trap it against your chest. I'll agree that for over the shoulder passes NOT on the numbers, the degree of difficulty goes up exponentially.

If an over the shoulder pass hits you in the numbers, the QB probably threw a boomerang instead of a football.

[ThunderDan]

I doubt that is it. Its timing. It is much easier to mentally time when the ball is about to arrive when you have clear view of it either in front of you, or crossing your path. Run outside and have your best friend throw you 5 passes as you run at him and 5 passes over your shoulder. Tell me what is the harder catch. The head has to look up and back to locate a ball over the shoulder. Then you are running full out and bouncing that vision around. Now on top of all that you must figure in the descent of the ball into your hands. Just a shitload more to account for than any other catch.

+1

This is what seperates the WR who played on Satudays and the ones that will play on Sunday.

[MadtownPacker]

If an over the shoulder pass hits you in the numbers, the QB probably threw a boomerang instead of a football.
Good one.

If JJ has to go he has to go. His drops are a big reason why the game was close at the end. He dropped the ball along with stacks of cash IMO.