Current Roster Projected to Next Year

[Smidgeon]

So I went through the current roster from Packers.com and projected them to a depth chart next year. Many of the positions I projected on hunches (which I'm sure will be inaccurate), but I had to put them somewhere. I'm also projecting some departures. But for the most part, it's all guess work.

I wanted to set the stage for the draft and next year. Who do we have now? Who from IR will fill in current holes? And mostly: where do I think the biggest holes on the team will be without a draft class or Free Agency signings?

First, to the projections:

Projected Challenger Probably Gone Probably Gone
Starter or Backup or Backup or Practice Squad Probably Gone
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
QB Aaron Rodgers Matt Flynn Graham Harrell
RB Ryan Grant James Starks Brandon Jackson Dimitri Nance
FB Quinn Johnson John Kuhn Korey Hall
WR1 Greg Jennings Jordy Nelson Antonio Robinson
WR2 James Jones Donald Driver Brett Swain Chastin West
TE Jermichael Finley Andrew Quarless Tom Crabtree Spencer Havner Donald Lee
LT Chad Clifton Marshall Newhouse
LG TJ Lang Daryn Colledge
C Scott Wells Nick McDonald Evan D-S Jason Spitz
RG Josh Sitton Adrian Battles
RT Bryan Bulaga Mark Tauscher Chris Campbell
LE Ryan Pickett Howard Green Jarius Wynn Justin Harrell
NT BJ Raji Jay Ross
RE Mike Neal CJ Wilson Cullen Jenkins
LOLB Clay Matthews Nick Barnett Brady Poppinga
LILB Desmond Bishop Brandon Chillar Matt Wilhelm
RILB AJ Hawk Robert Francois Cardia Jackson
ROLB Brad Jones Frank Zombo Erik Walden Curtis Young Diyral Briggs
LCB Charles Woodson Sam Shields Brandon Underwood Josh Bell
FS Nick Collins Derrick Martin Anthony Levine
SS Morgan Burnett Charlie Peprah Anthony Smith Michael Greco Atari Bigby
RCB Tramon Williams Pat Lee Jarrett Bush Josh Gordy
LS Brett Goode
K Mason Crosby
P Tim Masthay


Next, I consider these starters "established"--or rather--I trust them to do their jobs:
QB, RB, WR1, TE, C, RG, RT, LE, NT, LOLB, LILB, RILB, LCB, FS, RCB, LS, K, P

Leaving the following to be manned by those that are either stop-gaps, those that are just potential, those who have so far been inconsistent, or those who I'm not sure will make it through another relatively injury-free season:
FB, WR2, LT, LG, RE, ROLB, SS

Of those, I'm relatively confident (at least for the short term) in the following:
FB, WR2, LT, LG, RE, SS

Leaving just the ROLB position as one that I'd prefer to be manned by less than a committee of four players. While production was decent from the Walden/Zombo/Jones/Chillar/whomever (heretofore known as "Wal-zo-nes-ar-ever"), I'd like to see one player man that spot.

So even before the draft, it looks as if most of the positions are stocked well with a decent to good backup plan. The only position group which would make me really concerned if players started dropping would be the OL. Everywhere else seems to have good backups with good experience.

Just one man's thoughts. (And yes. I know that's more than 53 players.)

[curtis loew]

Don't forget about Jolly

[vince]

I think this is a tough exercise pre-draft and pre-free agency.

Not that the Packers will sign a bunch of guys, but they'll likely lose some. Jones for example. Not sure he's a projected starter. He's not under contract and Driver is the starter at this point anyhow. I'm not necessarily against re-signing him, but there's been no effort to do so yet so there's far more information at this point that would indicate he won't be a starter and/or may not even be on the team.

I think the Packers biggest needs for the draft are OL (2), OLB, CB, WR, Returner, ILB.

That leverages the team against losing Jones, Colledge, Spitz, and Barnett/Hawk and/or gives the opportunity to improve those spots on the team with younger, cheaper talent with more upside potential. I know some disagree, but I think they're already covered with losing Jenkins.

Finley, Rodgers, Matthews, Nelson, Raji, Sitton and others will be coming up for new deals soon enough and a number of those guys are going to break the bank. Regardless of the deal that comes out of a new CBA (and it's likely to include a cap), fiscal responsibility needs to be adhered to and some of the complementary vets that are looking for paydays (don't blame 'em) will need to be allowed to move on.

[Guiness]

Some interesting choices. Jones as WR2, with Nelson and DD as 3 and 4 would surprise me. I agree with Colledge being gone, I think someone will throw money at him that TT is not willing to match.

I'm not sure Quinn Johnson is the starting FB. He was a healthy scratch for the SB. I know we didn't intend to run much, but still.

I wonder if Tauscher comes back? He's not that far removed from the previous injury, which took him a while to recover from. I think he's a Packer coach next year, not a Packer player. Some sort of Ass't OL coach?

Francois at ILB and Barnett at OLB? You'll have to explain that to me!

Burnett ahead of Peprah remains to be seen.

[Smidgeon]

Don't forget about Jolly

Whoops. You know, that's funny because I originally penciled him in, then took him out for Pickett and my hunch of Neal starting next year. Totally forgot to add him back as a backup.

But since he isn't reinstated yet, he technically isn't on their roster, so the list I used didn't have his name.

[Smidgeon]

I think this is a tough exercise pre-draft and pre-free agency.

Agreed. I only did it half-seriously in a "I wonder how the IR players fit in" sort of way.

[Smidgeon]

First, these are all pure speculation where I'll likely be wrong. But I thought I'd explain why I was leaning the ways I was.


Some interesting choices. Jones as WR2, with Nelson and DD as 3 and 4 would surprise me. I agree with Colledge being gone, I think someone will throw money at him that TT is not willing to match.
I think while Driver maybe hasn't lost a lot, Jones and Nelson were already pretty close to him. And then Nelson and Jones both had productive stretches in the last half of the season. Driver losing anything next year means that the younger guys will shine. I think Jones will be back unless TT finds a WR he think will be money in another year. The Packers can get by with Jennings, Nelson, and Finley for a year or so if necessary.

Don't get me wrong: I like Nelson as a receiver. I just think that Jones is more talented even if less consistent. But an inconsistent Jones has been putting up similar or better numbers than a consistent Nelson. Which is why I was leaning that way.


I'm not sure Quinn Johnson is the starting FB. He was a healthy scratch for the SB. I know we didn't intend to run much, but still.
I think Johnson is getting better at pass protection and special teams. It seems it takes him longer for the pieces to click in his head. With another offseason, he might be ready to claim a role on this team instead of fall into it.


I wonder if Tauscher comes back? He's not that far removed from the previous injury, which took him a while to recover from. I think he's a Packer coach next year, not a Packer player. Some sort of Ass't OL coach?
Perhaps. But when I thought about it, I think Tauscher will make a serviceable backup. If the rest of the line goes as guessed, Bulaga is entrenched on the right for next year. Who better to back him up in a split second than the wily veteran who has all the experience in the book. Do you want Barbre or Giacomini Part II over there instead?


Francois at ILB and Barnett at OLB? You'll have to explain that to me!
If I remember correctly, Francois was AJ Hawk's only real positional backup before the season started. I think they moved him to OLB out of desperation when signing him off the practice squad. Plus I remember him saying he's worked both inside and outside. I think he's on the team simply because there is no one else to play Hawk's position if Hawk is out. Chillar, Barnett, and Bishop all play the same ILB spot.

And onto Barnett: There is a serious logjam (for the beginning of camp) in that ILB spot. I think Barnett has more strength and blitzing ability than Chillar and thus would be better on the edge. I could see him being an average weak side OLB. I don't see him effectively taking on the TE over and over. If he's back in GB (and I think that's a big if considering he doesn't play Hawk's position so Hawk's salary shouldn't come into the comparison), I think the closest he'll get to playing time will be either in the Psycho packages or on the outside. Frankly, I don't see him back (sadly because I kind of like him) because of Bishop's play. Of course, Chillar could be on the outs instead...


Burnett ahead of Peprah remains to be seen.
Peprah does have more experience, but his limitations are in coverage. While Burnett may not have the physicality of Peprah, he did show some coverage ability. In the NFL today and in the immediate future, being able to have coverage, ball-hawking safetys to combat pro offenses that will spread it out more and more will become necessary. Thus, I think Burnett wins out.

[Guiness]

Good comments - your answers show you gave your decisions some careful thought.



I think Johnson is getting better at pass protection and special teams. It seems it takes him longer for the pieces to click in his head. With another offseason, he might be ready to claim a role on this team instead of fall into it.
I'd like to see Johnson in there as well, he has shown he can be an explosive blocker. I like Kuhn a lot, but wonder if his folk hero status makes him bigger in the fan's eyes than he is. So, what is Kuhn? A journeyman (he is 6 season's out of college) who caught fire at the right time, or a player who finally developed to his potential that will be good for a while?



Perhaps. But when I thought about it, I think Tauscher will make a serviceable backup. If the rest of the line goes as guessed, Bulaga is entrenched on the right for next year. Who better to back him up in a split second than the wily veteran who has all the experience in the book. Do you want Barbre or Giacomini Part II over there instead?

Tauscher would certainly be a capable backup and I think we'd all like to see him back. A lot of 'if's there though. I don't really know how bad the shoulder injury was, or what the prognosis is. He's 33, which doesn't seem that old for an OL - still some mileage left in that body, I expect. His salary could be an issue, he's due somewhere between $4-5.5 million.

[vince]

Here's what I think will ultimately happen before next season starts with guys in contract limbo.

Gone
Cullen Jenkins
James Jones
Daryn Colledge
Atari Bigby
Jason Spitz
Anthony Smith
Spencer Havner
Matt Wilhelm
Josh Bell
Nick Barnett
Mark Tauscher

Back
Mason Crosby
Brandon Jackson
John Kuhn
Charlie Peprah
Korey Hall
Brett Swain
Johnny Jolly
A.J. Hawk

[Fritz]

Justin Harrell, baby! Gets the nod over Jarius Wynn.

[Guiness]

Here's what I think will ultimately happen before next season starts with guys in contract limbo.

Gone
Cullen Jenkins
James Jones
Daryn Colledge
Atari Bigby
Jason Spitz
Anthony Smith
Spencer Havner
Matt Wilhelm
Josh Bell
Nick Barnett
Mark Tauscher

Back
Mason Crosby
Brandon Jackson
John Kuhn
Charlie Peprah
Korey Hall
Brett Swain
Johnny Jolly
A.J. Hawk

That's a long 'gone' list. Can't say I disagree too much with most of them, though. Colledge might stay, and Atari might get little enough interest that he'll be back.

Don't know about Jolly. Has he applied for re-in-statement? Does he have to? Hall will be interesting as well, 3FB's again?

Biggest question is A.J. That $10million...does he renegotiate, or does he think someone else will give him that money? Or do we pay it???

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Here's what I think will ultimately happen before next season starts with guys in contract limbo.

Gone
Cullen Jenkins
James Jones
Daryn Colledge
Atari Bigby
Jason Spitz
Anthony Smith
Spencer Havner
Matt Wilhelm
Josh Bell
Nick Barnett
Mark Tauscher

Back
Mason Crosby
Brandon Jackson
John Kuhn
Charlie Peprah
Korey Hall
Brett Swain
Johnny Jolly
A.J. Hawk


I'd to cool with this, but with Jones staying. I just don't know why I like this guy so much. He is constantly making mistakes, but I keep thinking he will "put it all togther."

[Pugger]

I think Jolly applied for reinstatement but so far he hasn't been. I suppose with the CBA job one Jolly is not on Goodell's front burner.

[retailguy]

Here's what I think will ultimately happen before next season starts with guys in contract limbo.

Gone
Cullen Jenkins
James Jones
Daryn Colledge
Atari Bigby
Jason Spitz
Anthony Smith
Spencer Havner
Matt Wilhelm
Josh Bell
Nick Barnett
Mark Tauscher

Back
Mason Crosby
Brandon Jackson
John Kuhn
Charlie Peprah
Korey Hall
Brett Swain
Johnny Jolly
A.J. Hawk

Not so sure that Brandon Jackson is back. Don't disagree with the rest, though.

[RashanGary]

My update to Vince's list

Gone
Cullen Jenkins - money reasons
Nick Barnett - money reasons
James Jones - money reasons
Brandon Jackson - not good enough
Atari Bigby - not good enough
Jason Spitz - not good enough
Anthony Smith - not good enough
Spencer Havner - not good enough
Matt Wilhelm - not good enough
Josh Bell - not good enough
Mark Tauscher - not good enough

Back
Mason Crosby
Daryn Colledge
John Kuhn
Charlie Peprah
Korey Hall
Brett Swain
Johnny Jolly
A.J. Hawk

Jenkins is the toughest loss. Clearly he makes our defense better, but does a long term contract at free agent market value make sense? Probably not. Neal and Jolly return. We save that money for Raji and Matthews contracts down the road.

Nick Barnett is a money/age decision. He's better than our #4 ILB, but he's getting paid way too much to be warming the bench. This is money we will need for our big time players. Let Barnett go, extend Hawks contract and off we go. We won't miss him.

James Jones is a money/performance decision. He's good enough be stick around but we have so many good weapons (finley, jennings, nelson, driver) that paying for another will be tough. With Driver declining, maybe Jones sticks around. It might depend on the draft. If we draft one, Jones is gone. If not, maybe he stays.

The rest just aren't good enough to be on teh Packers. Many will play for other teams.


Note: One of the guys we want to keep will end up getting a surprise huge offer and we'll lose out. We just won the SB. Losers are going to be wanting to raid our championship talent pool.

[pbmax]

Just remember when reading the fainting waifs at JSO that they had Clifton signed up for the Redskins and Tauscher starting for the Chiefs and Bears last year prior to FA. They had the quills ready to puncture Thompson for failing to resign his own sooner.

By the time FA does hit, Thompson might not only have had more time to work through the roster, he might have had the draft already. Nothing is done yet. Much also depends on how much people pay Jenkins immediately after an injury checkered year.

[RashanGary]

The draft and how UFA plays out will effect it. I stand by my preliminary guess though. Surely it won't be 100% correct, but I think it will be a good guess.

[sharpe1027]

I think that it is is more likely than not that Jenkins will go somewhere else. There's a decent chance the Packers draft yet another DL, but even so there is still a chance he comes back. For one thing, we don't know how much money will be available to teams if they ever get a new CBA.

[Smidgeon]

Nick Barnett is a money/age decision. He's better than our #4 ILB, but he's getting paid way too much to be warming the bench. This is money we will need for our big time players. Let Barnett go, extend Hawks contract and off we go. We won't miss him.

How are the two related? They don't play the same position. It's like comparing Raji to Jenkins. They do similar things but have completely different roles in the defense. Another good comparison would be Korey Hall versus Ryan Grant. They do similar things (pass protecting, catching) but have completely different roles (Hall takes on the blockers, Grant runs past him) just like Hawk and Barnett (Hawk takes on the blockers, Barnett runs past him).

[RashanGary]

Bishop is the lock. Chillar, for the price, he's a lock too. We can't afford both Hawk and Barnett. Niether is a great plaeyr and they're both getting paid too much. If you like Barnett better, fine, move Bishop over. I don't like Barnett better so I resign Hawk. That's how they connect, to me anyway. They both play ILB and it would be nice to keep, and play, one of them in some order. Barnett can't take on blocks so he can only play one position. He's not even great at that. To me he's teh gonner. Bishop and Hawk could play either spot IMO. If injuries happen you can juggle them around if need be.

[Smidgeon]

I'm starting to think it comes down to Chillar or Barnett not Barnett or Hawk. If they're willing to cut or trade Barnett, they're probably willing to cut or trade Chillar. I think they're both making starter money.

These are the questions I have for what the Packers plan on doing: Who has more value (Barnett vs Chillar)? Who's more dependable (Barnett versus Chillar)? Who is more/less likely to get injured (Barnett vs Chillar)? Has Bishop played any of Hawk's position? Can he? If he can, it opens up a lot more things. If he can't, Barnett or Chillar has to go.