Excellent Mock, Make for the Benefit of Packfanistan V2011.2

[RashanGary]

Here's my system. I think it's a pretty good one when it comes to amateur draft dorkness.

1. I look at guys who are very good athletes. Everyone talks about the slower players who are great in the NFL, well a lot of those "slower players" have crazy burst off the line (Clay Matthews for example has a so/so 40 with an insane 10 yard split). So I only really deal with guys who are good athletes, and most of them are excellent athletes. That does not mean fast 40. That means functionally athletic for their position and there are drills for that.

2. I look at production. Coaches vote for All conference is a huge one. I read through a lot of draft mumbo jumbo, and as I get my list of guys, I start crossing them off if I can't find enough relevant, positive comments from people who know (coaches primarily). I take a big dump on any media created information. I only take info from the horses mouth.

3. Bob McGinn's draft piece. I don't necessarily believe everything in it. GM's with star RB's, I'll believe their info on RB's because they don't want them. Some of the other stuff, I sort of take with a grain of salt. I ask, "does this person have motivation to mislead" and if the answer is, "yes", I don't really take it as anything I can trust. But at the end of the day, the only media draft ranking I put any weight in is McGinn's. He's profoundly right on things other draft publications consistently fail at. The reason, I think, is because he has a ton of sources and he has enough of them to get good info on just about every position.


So at the end of the day, here's a mock draft. I'll have a list of guys I think are really good in this draft some time later this week.




1st TRADE: Pick 32 for 2nd and 4th (40 and 104)
2nd TRADE: Pick 104 and our 4th for pick 86 in the 3rd round
3rd TRADE: 5th, 6th, 7th for a late 4th

We end up with:

2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, comp 4th, comp 7th







2nd - JAMES CARPENTER, OT, Alabama - This guy rocks. Excellent athlete, excellent player, excellent pick.
https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-nprzVJm34GU/TXem558nCDI/AAAAAAAAAN8/qeo6NvSe-Lo/s200/James-Carpenter-Alabama.JPG


2nd - Allen Bailey, DE, The U - Awesome Sr season. Big, strong, fast, and productive.
http://www.mkrob.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/bailey.jpg



3rd - Shane Vereen, RB, Cal - Excellent all around back. This guy's gonna be a player.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_GEvR3ewyp3Y/TR_WFEL7yhI/AAAAAAAACMM/RVzKs1IOtCw/s1600/Arizona_v_California_92b9.jpg



3rd - Davon House, CB, New Mex State - You're going to see a trend here. Excellent size, fast, athletic, productive. Good player.
http://www.kffl.com/images/media/davon-house-391x213-20091031.jpg



4th - Greg Salas, WR, Hawaii - Excellent size, very athletic, productive.




4th - Chris Carter, OLB, Fresno - Excellent size, very athletic, extremely productive.




7th - Shaky Smithson, WR, Utah - Dynamic returner

[Lurker64]

I really don't think Chris Carter will be there at the end of the fourth. I'd take him at #96 though.

[RashanGary]

Another thing about the players I find. . . . I only find about 10 each year that are:

1. Athletic as all giddup (maybe average 40, but freak short area athletes and fast enough)
2. Productive as all giddup
3. Talked up by coaches as all giddup
4. Confirmed in McGinn's draft piece that is essentially written by NFL personnel guys
5. WAY undervalued in the media write ups


I like to find guys who are better than the media report and ulitmately end up being good in the NFL. I think every one of my guys is good.

[Tarlam!]

1st TRADE: Pick 32 for 2nd and 4th (40 and 104)
2nd TRADE: Pick 104 and our 4th for pick 86 in the 3rd round
3rd TRADE: 5th, 6th, 7th for a late 4th

We end up with: 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, comp 4th, comp 7th

The #32 is worth 590pts on at least 2 charts, so I guess you're looking for that value. That trade is valued at 582 pts However, I've watched a bunch of drafts and TT rarely, if ever gets that type of value in his trades. He has his own value charts!

What I don't get is the 'boys own pick 40 (500 pts) and the Iggles own 104 (82 & 86 pts resp.). So, despite the value, the picks are with 2 different teams and neither need a QB, which I assume is the driver. How does TT manage this trade?

Pick #39 (510 pts) & #109 (76 pts) are held by the Titans. They have QB issues that might not be satisfied at #8. If push comes to shove, they might trade.

Your 2nd trade is trying to get #86 from the Chiefs. They need plenty of players, so that's a good starting point. The value of that pick is 160 pts. The value of the TT's #109 & #129 (4th rounders both) is only 119 pts. You think that's feasible?

[RashanGary]

I used the nfldraftcountdown list. I didn't account for compensatory picks. It's all a mock, in fun. I like 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks, so that's what I picked. I'm not building the ground floor of a sky scraper here. I'm piling up a mound of dirt. Accuracy is only marginally important. Quit nit-pickin :)

[Tarlam!]

I'm not building the ground floor of a sky scraper here. I'm piling up a mound of dirt. Accuracy is only marginally important. Quit nit-pickin :)

Oh come on! :grin: You've investigated these guys down to their condom size, JH!! The least you can do is give the potential trading teams the scraps of your attention!! :grin:

[RashanGary]

Waldo has a whole big board of 200+ players. It's amazing. He puts in that type of detail. For me, all my work is sort of guess work. Perfecting details of my mock draft would be like painting an old house before it gets demolished.

I try to get as close to right on the players as I can, but that's the part I enjoy. I only do it because I like it so I don't spend my time with tedious detail. I do enough detail at work and they have to pay me to do it. The part of my mocks I'm most proud of is the player research. I like to research. I spend an inordinant amount of time doing it. It's fun for me, so I make the mock.

When I'm not researching the draft, I'm researching the next thing I buy. I love to research. Some people like watching TV, I like finding the truth from a mound of information (some meaningful, some meaningless).

[Tarlam!]

It's all good, JH. I'm just pullin' your chain, cause you sound so certain with your predictions! Hey, it aint often I can find an error in your thinking!!

where did you find Waldo's board ? I'd like to take a peek.

[RashanGary]

I'll have him post it here

[bobblehead]

If all your "semi sleeper" picks turn into good pros, I think you have to call TT for an internship :P

[Lurker64]

Waldo has a whole big board of 200+ players. It's amazing. He puts in that type of detail. For me, all my work is sort of guess work. Perfecting details of my mock draft would be like painting an old house before it gets demolished.

The benefit of Waldo's approach is that he's a numbers guy. He has years of numerical data on players and can corroborate weighted measurables to actual NFL success and draft position, then he can bin many prospects accordingly by entering their numbers into a spreadsheet. If his predictions turn out to be incorrect, he's always able to go back and adjust his models for the next year.

It's an extremely efficient approach for giving meaningful evaluations to as many players as possible as quickly as possible.

[Bretsky]

I'll have him post it here

can you let me know where I can read some of his juice ?

Ask him to get his ass back in here also !

[Smidgeon]

can you let me know where I can read some of his juice ?

Ask him to get his ass back in here also !

Agreed. I like his numbers and perspective.

[Bretsky]

I think he may have a website/blog somewhere.

I always liked him because he had strong viewpoints and whether he was right or wrong on each point he was persuasive and strong with his views

[RashanGary]

The benefit of Waldo's approach is that he's a numbers guy. He has years of numerical data on players and can corroborate weighted measurables to actual NFL success and draft position, then he can bin many prospects accordingly by entering their numbers into a spreadsheet. If his predictions turn out to be incorrect, he's always able to go back and adjust his models for the next year.

It's an extremely efficient approach for giving meaningful evaluations to as many players as possible as quickly as possible.

Right. I also use his info.

He as Acho rated really high, but I don't see it. I like another guy from the WAC, Chris Carter. Both 6'1" 248lbs. Both same production in same conference. Acho jumps higher and runs faster in a straight line. Carter bends better and runs better shuttle and 3-cone drill. I tend to like pass rushers who can bend and play fast on corners rather than straight line guys are better.

[RashanGary]

Waldo is at footballsfuture.com