A review of Grant's contract details

[Patler]

This is what I posted three years ago:


As reported by JSO:

2008
$3.5 million roster bonus
$750,000 salary
$500,000 roster bonus paid in 16 installments based on whether he is active each week.

2009
$2.75 million roster bonus (March)
$750,000 base salary
$500,000 game active roster bonus
$250,000 off-season workout bonus

2010
$1.25 million roster bonus (March)
$3 million base salary
$500,000 active roster bonus
$250,000 off-season workout bonus

2011
$1.75 million roster bonus (March)
$3.5 million base salary
$500,000 active roster bonus
$250,000 off-season workout bonus

2008, 2009, 2010 - He can earn performance bonuses paid the next year
$500,000 added to his base salary the next year if he gets 1000 yards rushing.
$1.5 million for 1,250 rushing yards
$2.5 million 1,500 yards or more

Additional incentives:
$150,000 for being in the top 10 in the NFC in rushing in any year
$500,000 for being in the top 5 in the NFC
$250,000 for making the Pro Bowl.

$4 million at the end of 2011 if in the four years of the deal he rushes for 4,100 or more yards
$2 million for 3,600 and 4,099 yards

Complex contract, but very much performance based. No dead money carryover if he is not with the team. I really like this type of contract, especially in this situation.

So, what has he earned?

2008 - the full $4.75 million

2009 - the full $4.25 million (I assume he got the workout bonus) plus an extra $500,000 for over 1000 yards rushing in 2008, plus $150,000 for being 6th in the NFC in rushing in 2008. Total pay out in 2009 of $4.9 million.

2010 - $1.25 M roster bonus, $3 M salary, $31,250 active roster bonus (1/16 of $500K) plus $1.5 million for 1,253 yards in 2009 plus $500,000 for being 3rd in the NFC in 2009. Total pay out $6,281,250.

2011- $5.5 million plus potential $500,000 active roster bonuses.

He has 2,501 yards under the contract, so he will need:
1,600 rushing yards for the $4 million bonus, or
1,100 rushing yards for the $2 million bonus

[vince]

It should be interesting. I think Starks is too productive to not get a significant number of carries. 1,100 yds would be a good year for Grant, assuming he has at least a slightly diminished role from previous years when he was the workhorse. There's a decent chance he could have a significantly diminished role from what he's become accustomed to. I think Green will get some opportunities too as the year progresses.

Here's a refresher on Starks. He's more powerful than he gets credit for - more powerful at the point of contact than Grant for sure.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mt3wnvA5lVA

[gbgary]

i think it'll be a very levens/bennett like year. a two-headed monster again.

[Lurker64]

I think the thing that ensures Grant gets a lot of touches is that he's far and away got the most home-run hitting ability of our running backs. Grant's long-speed is honestly among the best in the NFL (at the combine, the last 20 yards of Grant's 40 yard dash were faster than the last 20 yards for Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson). He's very decisive and he has good vision, so Grant is the sort of guy where if you give him a seam odds are that he's gone.

I'm pretty sure, though, that Grant actually gets worse the more carries he gets in a game. So you could probably get the best out of Ryan Grant by using him sparingly, in a Jamaal Charles type role.

[RashanGary]

Grant's speed is negated by his inability to make guys miss or break tackles.


Starks and Green are going to get carries. I don't think Grant will get as many yards as he's used to.

[Lurker64]

Grant's speed is negated by his inability to make guys miss or break tackles.

He doesn't have short area speed, which is what you use to make guys miss. He has long speed, which is what you use to just run away from people once you have an opening. You don't have to make people miss when they cannot catch you.

Grant has the ability to turn 20 yard runs into 60 yard touchdowns. That's valuable.

[Tarlam!]

I like Grant. I don't think he gets anywhere near the credit he deserves. I also believe any player benefits from having a vet show them the ropes. So I think Starks and Green actually benefit from guys like Grant and Kuhn around them.

[RashanGary]

He doesn't have short area speed, which is what you use to make guys miss. He has long speed, which is what you use to just run away from people once you have an opening. You don't have to make people miss when they cannot catch you.

Grant has the ability to turn 20 yard runs into 60 yard touchdowns. That's valuable.

He's not all that great at it. He's about average in the top 20 backs for runs over 40. I looked through about 10 guys up there and Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles were the big gainers in their last two years. Everyone else in the top 20 area is about the same with Adrian Peterson having 4 or 5 (Grant has the most common number of 3 over 40)

He's getting older (turns 29 before the end of next season.) He plays the position in the NFL that seems to correlate most with youth. Despite what you say about his long speed, his two full seasons, he was very average at breaking long runs.

There is evidence to both sides. I guess we'll see how it plays out. My guess is Grant goes under 1,000 (injury or split time could cause it) and Starks and Green collectively go over 450 yards (again, injury and split carrying time could contribute to them carrying more.) For comparisons sake, the two years Ryan Grant started full time, Brandon Jackson averaged 150 yards. So the 450 I'm proposing is a 3x larger than what happened in Grant's first two full years starting.

When Starks finally did get carries, he was playing against all playoff defenses. The Eagles, Falcons, Bears and Steelers all have good to great defenses. He didn't break any 40 yard gainers, but with Grant's averages his last two years, he only broke 2 and 1 respectively. He went 4 games in a row against probably shit defenses without a 40 yarder.

I agree with you about Grant's long speed, but I disagree with you that the other parts of his skillset make it much less likely for him to break big ones. If his long speed was so elite and that was by far the biggest factor in long runs, he wouldn't be average with the other healthy starting RB's in the league.

Grant isn't going to be better than he was his last two full seasons. I'll bet on it. He wasn't better than average in that area his last two years starting. He's not going to get more carries because he's such a threat to go deep. The coaches know he doesn't go deep often. He will get most of the carries because he's decisive, reliable and excellent at keeping the chains moving. He will split carries because we have two backs behind him now with skillsets that I believe work better in certain packaged in our offense than Grant. (namely the ability to split out, catch passes, and pressure defenses in different ways than just running.) We all know, MM likes to get creative.

That's my call. That's why. We'll see.

[packerbacker1234]

Also, the issue with Grants long speed is he has to actually get that 20 yard head of steam to get to that maximum stride. Guys like AP and Chris Johnson are just quick out the gate - that is what allows them to break more long runs. By the time they hit the second stretch and they slow down, they are already so far ahead of the defense that it doesn't matter anymore. Yes, if grant gets a massive hole and goes through it untouched for a good 10 yards, I agree he can really hit his stride and take it home. We've seen it from him. We saw it in 2007, and we've seen a handful or so times that he has done it sense. We all are aware that if he can just get untouched for a little bit, that no one is going to catch him. The problem is he doesn't have the quickness to make guys miss off the bat to help create some room for him to get that far.

That being said, I don;'t think Grant's breakaway late spring speed is the only thing he brings to table. He's had issues "moving hte pile" and "running aggressively", but after Ahman Green showed up w seasons ago it's like something snapped in Grant. He simply started to run harder. In his 8 carries this past season, we saw him still running hard. I'm not sure if he was simply inspired by Green or something, but something in his mentality running the ball seems to have changed. 8 carries, 45 yards, with no "big runs". To me, that is a clear sign of tough running. I even rewatched the first half of that game just to check and he was definitely moving the pile and the chains.
It was not the Grant we were accustomed to, but rather the guy that showed up after Green started getting tough yards for us the year prior.

I also truly believe Grant makes excellent first cut decisions out of the backfield. I think that first cut he knows exactly where he is supposed to go. He doesn't necessarily get there (depending on blocking, blitz packages, etc), but it's generally the correct decision. That's undervalued in a RB I feel.

He also pretty much "never" has negative yard runs. Another stat that is undervalued. Even in a completely broken down protection play, he still is going have the ball at the line of scrimmage or better 90% of the time. So, in the end, he doesn't do anything that is super special, he's just happens to be pretty good at a handful of things you look for in a RB. In pass first offense, that's all you need. We don't need flash, we need chain movers. As long as we are a pass first team that's all we need, and Grant is definitely a guy that can move the chains.

[Scott Campbell]

Grant was due the $1.75M roster bonus in March, but was that during the lockout period? Anyone know if he's been paid that yet?

[Patler]

It was actually due the 15th day of the league year, which would have been after the lockout started, I think.

[Lurker64]

It was actually due the 15th day of the league year, which would have been after the lockout started, I think.

The fifteenth day of the league year would seem to fall in early August this year.

[pbmax]

The fifteenth day of the league year would seem to fall in early August this year.

Exactly, Grant is in the unenviable position of needing to stay healthy for 2.5 weeks of camp to collect the money. The Packers are in the enviable position of getting to see how he has recovered before committing.

[Partial]

I think the thing that ensures Grant gets a lot of touches is that he's far and away got the most home-run hitting ability of our running backs. Grant's long-speed is honestly among the best in the NFL (at the combine, the last 20 yards of Grant's 40 yard dash were faster than the last 20 yards for Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson). He's very decisive and he has good vision, so Grant is the sort of guy where if you give him a seam odds are that he's gone.

I'm pretty sure, though, that Grant actually gets worse the more carries he gets in a game. So you could probably get the best out of Ryan Grant by using him sparingly, in a Jamaal Charles type role.

I don't agree with this. I don't have any stats to back it up. It seems like he's better the more carries he gets. I feel like he's really tough to bring down in the 4th. I don't think he's anywhere near as fast as AP or CJ either. Just my .02$.

[smuggler]

Grant and the new dude Green look very similar. Starks is our change of pace/bruiser... Seems like the rookie is the most well-rounded of all the backs.

[Lurker64]

Grant and the new dude Green look very similar. Starks is our change of pace/bruiser... Seems like the rookie is the most well-rounded of all the backs.

Actually, I think you have this flipped around a little bit. When you compare Starks and Green, Green is the bigger and the stronger of the two, while Starks has a weird skillset. In some ways he actually profiles better as a receiver (and for this reason I expect Starks to be the third down back if Jackson is not resigned, Starks has great hands). I think McCarthy sees in Green the kind of "put the game away in the second half" running back that he had in Kansas City (Marcus Allen) and New Orleans (Deuce McAllister). Not that Green is necessarily in the league of those guys, he's certainly not yet but I think McCarthy wants Green to be the bruiser who salts away the game in the second half. I mean, how amazing would this team be if we could actually put together eight minute touchdown scoring drives by running the ball once we got a lead we wanted to sit on?

[RashanGary]

Harry Sydney talks on 107.5 and he said Ryan Grant is one of the best 4 minute running backs in the NFL. He hits the hole hard, he get's what's there consistently. 4-minute offense, as Sydney described it, is the offense that is designed to chew clock. Sydney thinks that is Grants greatest strength.

As for Starks, I agree with Lurker. He can pressure defenses in a lot of ways. He's ideal as a 3rd down back because of his ability to catch from the backfield or split out wide. He's also usefull in base situations because defenses don't know how to defend him (as a runner or pass catcher)

Now Green. He's no chugging bruiser. Ted Thompson said something when we drafted BJ Raji that went against common height/weight perception. Lurker is using height/weight perception to deduct that Green is a bruiser. Thompson said, BJ Raji is more than a big plugger. He's more than that. Well, I think that applies to Green. He is explosive, fast, has great ability to make guys miss in the open field, he's big, strong, has great instincts. Someone above said he's the most rounded back. I agree with that and I also think he has the most dominant skill set in a Packer RB I've ever seen. Could he be a 4-minute back? Sure, he could do anything. But Grant is one of the best in the league and he'll get that job this year. I would compare Green a little to a healthy Frank Gore.

That's my call. That's why. We'll see.



If I had to list Green's greatest strengths it would go like this:

Ability to make guys miss (and not the type where a guy stops and jitters. This guy has a move that's still moving forward and causes guys to fall over. This move works in the hole and out of it.)

Vision and Speed

Explosiveness, Strength/Power and pass catching

Pass blocking



This guy is a weapon. He's no one dimensional bruiser. He's a full fledged, dominant, superstar playmaker.

[smuggler]

I'd say he's got pop through the hole, but he's definitely more of a speed back then a mauler. Of course, everything is relative.

I kind of doubt that he'll do to NFL defenders what he did to NCAA defenders. At least not as frequently.

[Tarlam!]

This guy is a weapon. He's no one dimensional bruiser. He's a full fledged, dominant, superstar playmaker.

I hope you're right, JH, But he got picked 96th overall. Two picks later, he'd have been a fourth rounder. Yet the superlatives you throw around when describing this guy make me wonder why he wasn't a top 10 pick.

Every season, someone drafted low or undrafted blows up the league, maybe this is the guy this year.

[Lurker64]

Now Green. He's no chugging bruiser. Ted Thompson said something when we drafted BJ Raji that went against common height/weight perception. Lurker is using height/weight perception to deduct that Green is a bruiser.

Well, Green is a bruiser because he's big and he's strong. The fact that he's also fast doesn't make him not a punishing runner, in fact it makes him more of a punishing runner.