Stock Market August 2, 2011

[Patler]

The stock market isn't reacting too positively to the debt limit deal that seems to have been worked out in congress. As I type this the DOW is threatening to drop below 12000. Hopefully, 12,000 will be a psychological support level to prop it.

[MJZiggy]

People were exceptionally unhappy with how that all went down. And many are very unhappy with the deal. I can't see consumer confidence being very high right now.

[HowardRoark]

This was more important yesterday:


The ISM Manufacturing index fell to 50.9 in July from 55.3 in June, coming in well below the consensus expected decline to 54.5. (Levels higher than 50 signal expansion; levels below 50 signal contraction.)

The major measures of activity all fell in July, but most remained above 50.0, signaling growth. The supplier deliveries index slipped to 50.4 from 56.3 and the production index fell to 52.3 from 54.5. The new orders index declined to 49.2 from 51.6 and the employment index fell to 53.5 from 59.9.

[Patler]

All consumer spending indicators yesterday and today looked bad as well. However, I thought the debt ceiling issue was of enough significance that a resolution would result in a market bounce, even if temporary. But, here we are, on the day a deal is being struck, and the market has dropped rather a lot.

Seems to indicate investors have bigger concerns than the US debt ceiling.

Are we heading into the second half of a double-dip recession?

[Patler]

Dow now well-below 12,000. Will it close below? I think so. That could start a major sell-off the rest of this week.

[SkinBasket]

The deal essentially guaranteed more of the same business killing policies from this administration, except with higher bills to pay come 2013. Nothing of substance was accomplished, and no problems were actually fixed.

I think double-dip is a bit misleading. It indicates the economy actually recovered.

[Patler]

I agree the bill seems to accomplish little; however, the media would have us believe that the fear of government default was holding back the markets. Today shows that was not the case. It was a minor blip on the radar of investors.

I think the lack of consumer spending indicates the economy has not recovered, or is reverting. That and the lack of business/manufacturing growth of any type.

[Scott Campbell]

All consumer spending indicators yesterday and today looked bad as well. However, I thought the debt ceiling issue was of enough significance that a resolution would result in a market bounce, even if temporary. But, here we are, on the day a deal is being struck, and the market has dropped rather a lot.

Seems to indicate investors have bigger concerns than the US debt ceiling.

Are we heading into the second half of a double-dip recession?


I suspect it's a double-dip world wide recession.

[MJZiggy]

I can't believe you're surprised by this.

[HowardRoark]

Right at support on the S & P 500 (1264).

[Patler]

I can't believe you're surprised by this.

I'm not surprised by the state of the economy. I am a little surprised by a substantial market drop on the very day that the default "crises" was averted. The market has been erratic, and if the drop below DOW 12000 had happened last week, yesterday or next week I wouldn't have thought as much of it. It happening today is a bit odd.

[Scott Campbell]

I'm not surprised by the state of the economy. I am a little surprised by a substantial market drop on the very day that the default "crises" was averted. The market has been erratic, and if the drop below DOW 12000 had happened last week, yesterday or next week I wouldn't have thought as much of it. It happening today is a bit odd.


I was looking forward to the bump. Instead we got another kick in the nuts.

[MJZiggy]

People hated that deal from all sides of the spectrum and no one has confidence in it or in our government right now. I think they were hoping for a better deal so I'm not shocked in the least. I'd say it will be buoyed by bargain hunters, but other than that will be down about a week and will slowly regain. Like I said, if I had a job, I'd be buying.

[Scott Campbell]

I'm not nearly as optimistic. Fortune 500 countries are sitting on a trillion dollars in cash offshore. That money isn't coming back home any time soon.

[Freak Out]

There are bad numbers all around....all this is is people trying to protect wealth....it's going into cash or gold....something.

[Freak Out]

Ha ha....I love it. Gold up almost $25.

[Freak Out]

Look for food prices to jump big after this.

[wist43]

I agree the bill seems to accomplish little; however, the media would have us believe that the fear of government default was holding back the markets. Today shows that was not the case. It was a minor blip on the radar of investors.

I think the lack of consumer spending indicates the economy has not recovered, or is reverting. That and the lack of business/manufacturing growth of any type.

I think you guys are looking at it exactly wrong :)

Why do you assume that the leaders of the Republicratic Party wanted to "help" the people, and "help" the economy???

I think the debt "deal" accomplished exactly what its authors, and their masters, intended, i.e. more debt and more government control over the private sector and the people themselves.

It's what unconstrained governments do.

Mission accomplished... didn't you see all the clapping and back slapping... wooo hooo!!! PARTY ON BIG GOVERNMENT - PARTY ON!!!!!!!!!!

Washington's new motto :)

[MJZiggy]

EGADS! -512 is more than I was expecting.

[Harlan Huckleby]

Debt ceiling deal was irrelevant, there was no default, but that was the expected result. Even if it was a larger, more responsible deal, I doubt it would have helped much. The market dropped because the global economy is teetering.

[red]

buy gold folks, time to start burying stuff in the backyard

i'm actually shocked that the market has been doing this well the last few years with the housing and job conditions being so piss poor in this country

[mraynrand]

I think you guys are looking at it exactly wrong :)

Why do you assume that the leaders of the Republicratic Party wanted to "help" the people, and "help" the economy???

I think the debt "deal" accomplished exactly what its authors, and their masters, intended, i.e. more debt and more government control over the private sector and the people themselves.

It's what unconstrained governments do.

Mission accomplished... didn't you see all the clapping and back slapping... wooo hooo!!! PARTY ON BIG GOVERNMENT - PARTY ON!!!!!!!!!!

Washington's new motto :)


Two trillion/year in Regulations along Wisty. That's the new uber-rich sticking it to us. By Uber-rich, I mean the hordes of overpaid, overcompensated government workers who are sucking us dry, paid for with our tax dollars. You know, the "middle class." :lol:


"He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people"

[mraynrand]

Debt ceiling deal was irrelevant, there was no default, but that was the expected result. Even if it was a larger, more responsible deal, I doubt it would have helped much. The market dropped because the global economy is teetering.

Agree. Plus, some are expecting bad jobs numbers. Recall that Q1 was revised down to 0.4 'growth.' China still chugging along at 9.0%. Guess the commies were right - 'Capitalism' doesn't work. :lol:

[SkinBasket]

EGADS! -512 is more than I was expecting.

That's what happens when you get your news from Jon Stewart.

[MJZiggy]

Actually my source is Motley Fool. But I know you'll just believe what you feel like believing anyway.

[retailguy]

EGADS! -512 is more than I was expecting.

Hopefully it changes your mind about this ridiculous debt deal. smoke and mirrors. it don't work no more!

[MJZiggy]

When did I ever say I LIKED the debt deal. NO ONE likes the debt deal. (but I bet if we'd added a revenue increase the market would look much nicer right now...) This is sounding too much like FYI for the Romper Room.

[Freak Out]

Today's fall had more to do with the global economy than the so called debt deal. Europe is in crisis, war and rebellion throughout the middles east....none of this is surprising.

[Joemailman]

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2011/08/the_stock_market_is_looking_re.html

Theory 4) The Smurfs are to blame. Ever since Papa Smurf rang the opening NYSE bell on July 29, the Dow Jones Index has lost more than 1,000 points. Where's Gargamel when you need him?

[Patler]

EGADS! -512 is more than I was expecting.


Turned out OK for me. I sold everything I owned (except APPL) on Tuesday, Wednesday and early this morning. After selling about 1/3 of all (except AAPL) on Tuesday, I put it all into a 3x reverse small cap ETF. It's up nearly 20% from my purchase price. I would have been much better off if I had sold it all on Tuesday, but at least the ETF covered the losses from yesterday and today, so I am where I was on Tuesday. If things continue down, I should make some money on the decline.

AAPL might go tomorrow.

[MJZiggy]

Partial will be crushed. It's going to be worth $1k a share, you know.

[SkinBasket]

Actually my source is Motley Fool. But I know you'll just believe what you feel like believing anyway.

I believe what you tell me. I'm starting to think that's not a good idea.

[bobblehead]

Like I said, if I had a job, I'd be buying.

Generally the right reaction, but I implore you to keep your cash in the bank for at least another year. Probably more.

[bobblehead]

When did I ever say I LIKED the debt deal. NO ONE likes the debt deal. (but I bet if we'd added a revenue increase the market would look much nicer right now...) This is sounding too much like FYI for the Romper Room.

Simply WOW. Yep, you figured it out. If we had only hiked taxes we would have a AAA rating and the market would be charging.

[bobblehead]

Turned out OK for me. I sold everything I owned (except APPL) on Tuesday, Wednesday and early this morning. After selling about 1/3 of all (except AAPL) on Tuesday, I put it all into a 3x reverse small cap ETF. It's up nearly 20% from my purchase price. I would have been much better off if I had sold it all on Tuesday, but at least the ETF covered the losses from yesterday and today, so I am where I was on Tuesday. If things continue down, I should make some money on the decline.

AAPL might go tomorrow.

With the removal of the uptick rule its getting pretty easy to make money in a falling market. Strange...its almost like most of the people who control vast amounts of wealth have figured that out and are forcing the issue. But we all know that the rich don't change behavior when you change the rules. Just tax them more, that will solve everything.

[HowardRoark]

Big demand for US Treasuries again. Yields hitting lows of mortgage meltdown.

[bobblehead]

Big demand for US Treasuries again. Yields hitting lows of mortgage meltdown.

Pretty sure the media is overplaying that "big" demand angle. If you can show me that the federal reserve has stopped purchasing treasuries I'll believe it. I do know that gold is up today and ammunition just keeps getting more expensive.

[red]

Generally the right reaction, but I implore you to keep your cash in the bank for at least another year. Probably more.

wow, that's just beyond the dumbest thing i've heard in awhile

now is the time to buy if you have the money. what we witnessed was a massive knee jerk reaction to the credit ratings drop

did anything really change? no. everyone with half a brain knew we were way in the hole and that we've been in trouble for over a decade. what you saw was jumpy people getting scared and mass selling. soon it will calm, and the people that know what they are doing will start buying everything for very cheap. should see a nice bounce coming soon. might not go all the way back up to where it was, but it will take a jump here soon

[HowardRoark]

2.182 on the 10 year Note.

Go buy a house, if you haven't been recalled.

[Freak Out]

No doubt....or a second or third.... :)