Offense Expectations?

[Bossman641]

Let’s run through some numbers.

The 2010 Packers scored 388 points on the season (24.3 per game). The lowest point total for 2010 was 7 at Detroit. They scored under 20 points in six games. Five times they scored over 30 points. While the offense improved as the season wore on, there were still far too many times where the offense would fall asleep for drives or quarters at a time.

For comparison, the 2009 Packers scored 28.8 points per game for a total of 461 on the season. That season’s lowest point total for a game was 17 against Dallas. It was the only game they scored under 20 points. Seven times they scored over 30 points. However; as explosive as the 09 offense was, that was also the year that Rodgers was sacked 51 times.

Barring injuries, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say the 2011 offense should be at least as good as the 2009 offense: Rodgers has complete control of the offense, the running game should be just as good, any decline in Driver should more than be made up for by Jones and Nelson, an improved OL, Finley, etc.

With all that said, what type of scoring numbers should we expect this year? Since 2002, only 3 teams have hit 500 points – the 04 Colts at 522, the 07 Patriots at 589, and the 09 Saints at 510.

Is 500 points a realistic expectation this year?

I remember the 09 preseason and thinking how unstoppable that offense looked. Then the regular season hit and the OL wasn’t always up to the task and Rodgers sometimes held the ball too long. I don’t see that happening this year.

I might need to take a break from the kool-aid but I just don’t see how this offense can be stopped. I fully expect them to score 500+ points.

[Cheesehead Craig]

I'm actually going to with the under and I think they will score about 420. The lack of a regular offseason means that the offenses are behind the defenses right now and that's common around the league. I just think the offense is going to come out a bit slow and then get things moving along as the season develops. There will be much gnashing of teeth and comments about a SB hangover and underperformance and that MM should be fired early on, but it will work itself out and suddenly the offense will be clicking and MM won't be questioned so much.

[Ballboy]

The only problem I see is MM desire to run the ball once the Packers have a lead, to burn clock. If the defense gets the turn-overs, this number should easy to get.

[Bossman641]

This thread was begging for a poll, so I added one.

[Harlan Huckleby]

MM is not a run-up-the-score guy.

[Upnorth]

Can they get the over? Yes. Wil they? No as ballboy mentioned once we have the lead mm runs. We are going to have a lot of leads.

[Brandon494]

Forget the stats, talent wise we have a top 3 offense and as long as we stay healthy at key positions it's no reason we should not score over.

[LP]

As long as they score more than the other guys every week, I'm good.

[sharpe1027]

I expect the defense to be better than in 2009, therefore they won't need to take risks to score points and will be fine running clock in many situations. Under 470.

[hoosier]

Experience says that everything in the NFL that smells like roses in TC eventually wilts and starts smelling like shit. I'm not predicting doom and gloom for the Packers this year, I think they have as good a chance of repeating as any team since the 2004 Patriots. McCarthy seems to have a good handle on managing his team's emotions. But every year we have seen the team come out of the preseason with some component of the offense out of sync or malfunctioning: the offensive line in 2009, Rodgers and his receivers in 2010, the running game, and so on. Something will be out of whack this year, and if I had to bet I would bet it's on the offensive side of the ball.

[Guiness]

I don't think the offense will come out stinking by any stretch. The OL may start a little slowly, they seem to every year.

If I was to look for a location of a potential flaw, I'd say RB. How strong will Grant come back? What will Starks bring to the table in a more prominent role? Finley's lighter weight, surely hampering his ability to run block won't help.

[Harlan Huckleby]

I don't think the offense will come out stinking by any stretch. The OL may start a little slowly, they seem to every year . Offenses are going to be behind the curve across the whole NFL

[Joemailman]

470 is tough. Only 1 team topped it last year. Packers 2011 opponents gave up an average of 343 points in 2010. Packers are good, but not good enough to score almost 30 per game against these teams. Plus, they're outside all of December/January. 430 if all the key guys stay healthy.

[gbgary]

The only problem I see is MM desire to run the ball once the Packers have a lead, to burn clock. If the defense gets the turn-overs, this number should easy to get.

as long as he doesn't get conservative too early. last year was a breakout year for mm and his playcalling. during the last part of the season he finally realized the go pedal would be his salvation.

as for the poll...i voted over. the O will kick some ass.

[gbgary]

470 is tough. Only 1 team topped it last year. Packers 2011 opponents gave up an average of 343 points in 2010. Packers are good, but not good enough to score almost 30 per game against these teams. Plus, they're outside all of December/January. 430 if all the key guys stay healthy.

dammit. stop talking with your brain. what a buzz killer.

[Joemailman]

dammit. stop talking with your brain. what a buzz killer.

Kool-Aid season doesn't start until Pack wins a preseason game. :grin: :pack:

[Bretsky]

My expectation is the Packers are the #2 scoring team in the NFL behind Hoody Genius and his Pats....part due to Hoody lacking a conscience in running scores up

[pbmax]

My expectation is the Packers are the #2 scoring team in the NFL behind Hoody Genius and his Pats....part due to Hoody lacking a conscience in running scores up

Speaking of expectations, how has the Bikini Girls off-season training camp been going so far?

[King Friday]

I don't see 470. With the kickoff basically becoming an automatic touchback most of the time, you are going to have to go 80 yards to score a lot. That is going to bring point totals down somewhat I think. I'm not sure anyone gets to 470 this year. 27 points per game is probably a more likely scenario, which should be more than enough to win games with our defense.

[smuggler]

Trouble is, the defense is too good to necessitate the offense scoring 500 points. I am saying they don't make it, but ~450 seems reasonable and attainable.


Speaking of expectations, how has the Bikini Girls off-season training camp been going so far?

Yeah, man. Share the wealth of knowledge. (Packer hotties are the best hotties)

[hoosier]

Speaking of expectations and their potentially negative consequences, some interesting insights by Kurt Warner that might affect the 2011 Packers. Could pressing instead of taking things as they come be a problem for Rodgers this year? http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/127553003.html

[Bossman641]

Now that we are halfway through the year it's time for an update.

Packers are averaging 34 points a game - on pace for 550 on the year. The schedule gets tougher, and with the exception of Detroit, are looking at cold weather games the rest of the year.

Can they keep up the torrid pace? Even if the offense falls off a bit to 25 points a game, that would put them at 475. With the play of the defense, it looks they will need every one of them.