PDA

View Full Version : Amateur talent evaluation. . . . Merit in it?



RashanGary
09-02-2011, 12:09 PM
I think Alex Green is a star. I also think DJ Williams is to TE's as Donald Driver is to receivers (dynamic personality aside.)

Here's what I look at, and why. . . .


I watched college and NFL youtube clips of Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson (two very different backs, but examples of great talent.) I also watched guys like CJ Spiller and Ryan Matthews in college. I watched Deangelo Williams and Ray Rice in college and NFL. I watched Jamaal Charles (before he broke out)I know what Ryan Grant and Matt Forte look like. I thought Jamaal Charles looked like a dominant player the year before he broke out. He does the things the great RB's do. I also think Gore is in that list of the greatest (injuries have put a damper on his career obviously.)

Here's what I noticed about both superstar RB's of today. I'll list it in order of what they do that the other guys don't do.


1. They break tackles. There are plenty of big numbers guys who rack up yards in their offense, but Johnson and Peterson stand out by breaking tackles, even tackles they have no business breaking (Peterson having the edge here, but not as much as you'd think. Johnson is looked at as a speed/scat back. He's not. He's strong. Jamaal Charles too.)

2. They make guys miss. There are a lot of RB's who make the guy miss and then fall down off balance or don't recover fast enough to make the next move. Peterson and Johnson make guys miss and then have the balance to make the next move.

3. They're fast. They don't get caught from behind.

4. They put up big numbers.

I don't have an "eye" for vision, but I believe racking up yards is a result of vision. I believe making guys miss is a result of vision (I think setting up a move requires vision to see what's coming.) I also think breaking tackles shows vision. There's an art to being in position to break a tackle. I don't think it's coincidence. I think there's vision to it. So players who do 1 through 4, first they're either proven great or were great college players. Second, I think that's a good guage on the quality of a RB.

Also, an interesting thing about Peterson and Johnson. The things they did in college. . . . They did the same in the NFL. Peterson tossed high tacklers off him in college. It's amazing how it was almost dejavu watching him do it in the NFL. Johnson does it a little different. Most guys fall down with low tackles. Johnson is far better than Peterson and far better than anyone I've watched at high stepping and slipping low tackles. He somehow gets his legs out and keeps moving. He did it in college and then it looks the same in the NFL.



With that in mind, I think Alex Green is a great player.

1. He breaks tackles (Not as well as either Peterson or Johnson, but on par with the other big number backs in the league)

2. He's looked at as a big back, but I think his #1 quality is making guys miss. He does better than Peterson but not as well as Johnson in college. I still consider it elite and he does it moving forward. He never stops, yet he induces mega ankle breakers. Stopping in the NFL (like CJ Spiller does and Brandon Jackosn) Is no-no #1. If you're not Barry Sanders, don't do it.

3. He's fast. He doesn't get caught from behind.

4. He put up monster numbers


And I think he has vision because he's constantly playing off his blocks and picking up big yards. He's also a great pass catching RB. He brings a complete game. They great players today tend to do a few things better than everyone else and Green is in that mold. I think he's going to be a great Packer.

CJ Spiller surprised me going as high as he did. He makes guys miss, but he falls down every time at first contact. Making guys miss is nice, but in the NFL, you have to be able to stay up after contact too. The same move in college that makes a guy whiff, is a move in the NFL where a guy trips you up. I think Spiller is junk and I think Green has it all. It has to be a combo of making guys miss and running through arm tackles. Spiller does one. Green does both.

RashanGary
09-02-2011, 12:22 PM
Oh, and that little spin Green did to break a tackle in the preseason. . . That's the same thing he did in college. Dejavu.

Both rookies on offense had a big learning curve. MM is complex. AR, driver, Jennings, Grant, Starks, Nelson, Jones, Finley, Quarless, all the OL. . . Every player is a vet. The playbook is big. The sophistication at the line is near the most complex in the league. Neither player is ready to get in with the vets. Both have big time talent, Green having more.

Capers is more simple than MM. Woodson is given the complex assignment. Everyone else has a set role adn they know it. MM has a group that can handle a lot and until young guys get thrown in and he has to dumb down, it's over these guys heads.

smuggler
09-02-2011, 01:02 PM
Did you enthuse this much over Justin Harrell?

RashanGary
09-02-2011, 01:14 PM
Did you enthuse this much over Justin Harrell?

Yes.

For different reasons. I have fun with it. Hey, come up with something original of your own. You might have fun with it. There is something I've observed in myself and seems to hold true with others. . . being a hater says more about how you feel about yourself than what you're hating on.

Maybe you feel like an idiot? Confused? Jealous? All of the above?

Whatever it is, it's not very flattering on you.

Fritz
09-02-2011, 01:16 PM
I think it was just a question, JH, not a criticism.

RashanGary
09-02-2011, 01:23 PM
So anyway, I'm excited about Alex Green for the reasons above.

HarveyWallbangers
09-02-2011, 02:13 PM
The vision thing is a big deal. Otherwise, Beanie Wells would be a star. :) (BTW, I still think Wells still has a chance to break out.) The one thing I don't like about Green is that he's big but he doesn't necessarily break a lot of tackles. Not consistently. I also worry about his vision. The holes he had in college were a mile wide. A lot of his college tape has him being taken down in the open field by one guy. Sure, because he's big and strong there are times where he carries defenders. Just as often he makes a wrong cut in the open field. and gets tackled by one guy. The screen play was great, but a guy like Peterson would have scored a touchdown.

I like Green. It's easy to fall in love with his size, speed, pass catching ability, spin move, etc. I like his upside.

Zool
09-02-2011, 02:18 PM
I just pooped. It was satisfying.

Cheesehead Craig
09-02-2011, 02:54 PM
I just pooped. It was satisfying.

Seeing Zool poop both in college and now post-college, his pooping style hasn't changed. It's like deja vu watching him between now and then. Same consistent form.

He's got great vision as he always knows where the closest bathroom is and can accurately judge the quickest route. He can see what people around him threaten him with mundane conversations that would delay him from pinching off a loaf and he simply sidesteps them.

Don't underestimate his strength. He can be holding onto a brown submarine that's been building up after a night of burritos and corn on the cob until that rest area that's 12 miles away finally arrives.

Speed is something in this department that you don't want to have and Zool takes his time and makes sure he does at least 2-3 Sudukos while on the throne.

Most impressive though is that he can produce some monster turds. That's a sign of an elite pooper.

sharpe1027
09-02-2011, 03:03 PM
The holes he had in college were a mile wide. A lot of his college tape has him being taken down in the open field by one guy. Sure, because he's big and strong there are times where he carries defenders.

This is what I saw from my *cough* extensive *cough* review of a 5+ minute highlight real of a dozen or so plays. There were few broken tackles. It is not his fault that he had open space to work with and perhaps he can consistently break tackles, but I haven't seen it on the level of AP.

Brandon494
09-02-2011, 05:54 PM
I like the guys potential but lets be honest here, he played in the WAC and before that he played at a JC . The NFL is a HUGE leap from the type of players he made those runs against. That's why I like Cobb so much, he put up big numbers in the SEC on a bad team.

Fritz
09-02-2011, 06:22 PM
In answer to your thread question, JH, I do think that some amateurs, paying close attention, do have some merit to their observations. There are a few folks on this site in that class.

Me, I'm not one of them. I have some strong ideas as to how to build a team - I've been a Thompson fan since the beginning - but I can't pretend I really know anything much about the players. Doesn't stop me from sharing my opinions!

Thus...as for Green, I think elite backs are easier to spot (for professional scouts) than players at other positions. That's why the vast majority of the great ones were high draft picks. I'm trying to think of elite backs who were chosen after, say, the second round....hmmm....Frank Gore was a third rounder and Marion Barber a fourth, but they weren't or aren't quite elite players. Very good, but not elite.

But we shall see if you turn out to be correct about Alex Green. I hope you are.

LP
09-03-2011, 04:20 PM
He's got great vision as he always knows where the closest bathroom is

Who cares about the bathroom. What separates the great ones is knowing the location of the closet.

bobblehead
09-03-2011, 05:11 PM
In answer to your thread question, JH, I do think that some amateurs, paying close attention, do have some merit to their observations. There are a few folks on this site in that class.

Me, I'm not one of them. I have some strong ideas as to how to build a team - I've been a Thompson fan since the beginning - but I can't pretend I really know anything much about the players. Doesn't stop me from sharing my opinions!

Thus...as for Green, I think elite backs are easier to spot (for professional scouts) than players at other positions. That's why the vast majority of the great ones were high draft picks. I'm trying to think of elite backs who were chosen after, say, the second round....hmmm....Frank Gore was a third rounder and Marion Barber a fourth, but they weren't or aren't quite elite players. Very good, but not elite.

But we shall see if you turn out to be correct about Alex Green. I hope you are.

Terrel Davis was a 6th. But I agree that in general when a guy has great skills at RB, they shine in college pretty obviously.