Total QBR

[Smidgeon]

Is anybody else really tired of ESPN's QBR now? I was trying to read a summary of Rodgers' play on the NFC North blog, and they gave his TQBR and not his QBR. Ugh. I don't want to have to learn another set of statistics just because ESPN wants to brainwash more people.

[Upnorth]

When i first read that blog i thought Rodgers should have a rating in the 105 to 115 range. Then I read it again. My opinion of the TQBR is that it is worse than our special teams. TQBR is the intellectual equivalent of Skinbaskets avatar.

[MadScientist]

It's hard to even call them statistics with the subjective components. The easiest way to solve the problem is to just ignore BSPN, and then you will never see the TBSR which nobody else will ever use.

[Lurker64]

I was tired of it before they even officially announced it. I'm just going adopt "ignore it, in hopes that it goes away" as my strategy. Nobody other than ESPN is ever going to use it.

[King Friday]

I like the idea of a new QB rating, since I think the current one really doesn't measure the true value of a QB in his entirety. However, to have ESPN cram one down our throats feels dirty.

[swede]

I was tired of it before they even officially announced it. I'm just going adopt "ignore it, in hopes that it goes away" as my strategy. Nobody other than ESPN and Mike Vick's mom is ever going to use it.

fify

[RashanGary]

To really get a good idea of QB rating, I think it would be good to take into account defense and ST's (added pressure on a QB to have to push to win.) I also think run game would be a helpful addition. Then the average amount of time before the first rusher gets pressure on the QB (take into account OL.) Then take drops by WR's and maybe even a subjective panel, rating the QB's weapons into maybe 5 categories (horrible, bad, average, good, great) or something like that. Then take into account your usual completion percentage, INT's, TD's, etc. .. . Then sacks (especially in relation to the average time the QB gets in the pocket) Maybe throw in a subjective panel of coaches and a few former QB's to give some opinion to it. . . Maybe even crunch in some sort of sliding scale based on the defense played each week. . . . . There are all kinds of variables that could be added in, here and there, to make it more complete.

To throw out professional, subjective viewpoints when discussing the overall rating of a player. . . . Idiotic.

Churn that all up somehow and spit it out and you probably get a pretty good view of the best QB's in the league.

[RashanGary]

I've got my money on AR as the best QB playing right now. He's in his prime. There are some better players past their primes that are no longer at the top of their game. There are some young players who will probably turn out better than AR.

Right now, today, AR is king IMO.

[mraynrand]

One nice thing the Vikings have going for them is that the traditional QBR or BSPN's are equally simple to calculate - adding up zeros is straightforward...

[Brandon494]

I've got my money on AR as the best QB playing right now. He's in his prime. There are some better players past their primes that are no longer at the top of their game. There are some young players who will probably turn out better than AR.

Right now, today, AR is king IMO.

Until his play drops off Brady is still king. Also what young QBS are going to turn out better than AR?

[pbmax]

This is all you need to know. Win Probability (WP) is the probability that a team will win a game in progress, given a particular combination of circumstances including score, time remaining, field position, down, and to go distance. WPA is the measure of a play’s impact on the outcome of a game. An individual player’s WPA (WP Added) is the sum of the WPA of the plays in which that player was directly involved.

Expected Points (EP) is the value of the current down, distance, and field position situation in terms of future expected net point advantage. In other words, it is the net point value a team can expect given a particular combination of down, distance, and field position. EPA is Expected Points Added, the EPA is the measure of a play’s impact on the score of the game. An individual player’s EPA is the sum of the EPA of the plays in which that player was directly involved and does not factor score or time remaining.

I believe that WPA is expected to be explanatory of results (looking backward) and EPA is more predictive.


Player Team G WPA EPA WPA/G EPA/P SR(%) Att Cmp Cmp% PassYds Sk SkYds Int %Deep AYPA
12-A.Rodgers GB 1 0.58 18.6 0.58 0.47 60.0 35 27 77.1 312 2 16 0 20.0 8.0
12-T.Brady NE 1 0.48 18.2 0.48 0.34 55.6 48 32 66.7 517 1 1 1 25.0 9.6
9-M.Stafford DET 1 0.42 23.2 0.42 0.66 60.0 33 24 72.7 305 0 0 1 21.2 7.9
7-M.Vick PHI 1 0.33 8.9 0.33 0.19 43.5 32 14 43.8 187 3 20 0 31.3 4.8
17-P.Rivers SD 1 0.33 10.0 0.33 0.19 57.7 48 33 68.8 335 2 5 2 18.8 4.8
4-K.Kolb ARZ 1 0.32 9.7 0.32 0.30 40.6 27 18 66.7 309 2 14 0 14.8 10.2
6-J.Cutler CHI 1 0.32 2.8 0.32 0.07 48.7 32 22 68.8 312 5 23 1 15.6 6.6
1-C.Newton CAR 1 0.25 15.0 0.25 0.29 50.0 37 24 64.9 422 4 19 1 27.0 8.7
5-J.Flacco BLT 1 0.25 7.5 0.25 0.23 39.4 29 17 58.6 224 1 9 0 27.6 7.2
12-L.McCown JAX 1 0.19 1.2 0.19 0.04 50.0 24 17 70.8 175 2 15 0 4.2 6.2
8-R.Grossman WAS 1 0.19 10.7 0.19 0.28 53.8 34 21 61.8 305 4 47 0 32.4 6.8
7-C.Henne MIA 1 0.17 16.2 0.17 0.27 46.7 49 30 61.2 416 4 26 1 28.6 6.5
7-B.Gradkowski CIN 1 0.16 1.9 0.16 0.15 30.8 12 5 41.7 92 1 7 0 41.7 6.5
14-R.Fitzpatr BUF 1 0.15 10.9 0.15 0.36 53.3 25 17 68.0 208 1 7 0 20.0 7.7
9-D.Brees NO 1 0.08 17.3 0.08 0.31 54.5 49 32 65.3 419 3 23 0 30.6 7.6
11-A.Smith SF 1 0.05 2.4 0.05 0.09 50.0 20 15 75.0 124 0 0 0 20.0 6.2
8-M.Schaub HST 1 0.01 4.3 0.01 0.16 66.7 24 17 70.8 220 1 3 2 12.5 5.1
14-A.Dalton CIN 1 -0.03 -2.7 -0.03 -0.13 42.9 15 10 66.7 81 3 11 0 20.0 3.9
8-J.Campbell OAK 1 -0.05 -3.7 -0.05 -0.14 44.4 22 13 59.1 105 1 6 0 18.2 4.3
10-E.Manning NYG 1 -0.07 -0.5 -0.07 -0.01 43.6 32 18 56.3 268 4 28 1 25.0 5.4
7-B.Roethlisber PIT 1 -0.09 -14.9 -0.09 -0.31 41.7 41 22 53.7 280 4 34 3 19.5 2.5
8-K.Orton DEN 1 -0.11 2.3 -0.11 0.04 45.9 46 24 52.2 304 5 32 1 17.4 4.5
5-J.Freeman TB 1 -0.12 7.5 -0.12 0.16 48.9 43 28 65.1 257 2 7 1 14.0 4.6
12-C.McCoy CLV 1 -0.14 -3.4 -0.14 -0.08 35.6 40 19 47.5 213 2 11 1 12.5 3.7
7-M.Cassel KC 1 -0.16 -10.7 -0.16 -0.28 31.6 36 22 61.1 119 2 14 1 16.7 1.6
9-T.Romo DAL 1 -0.17 5.6 -0.17 0.12 44.4 36 23 63.9 342 4 16 1 19.4 7.0
5-D.McNabb MIN 1 -0.18 -7.3 -0.18 -0.38 31.6 15 7 46.7 39 2 11 1 6.7 -1.0
8-M.Hasselbeck TEN 1 -0.18 5.9 -0.18 0.15 38.5 34 21 61.8 263 2 14 1 23.5 5.7
2-M.Ryan ATL 1 -0.20 -10.8 -0.20 -0.20 43.6 47 31 66.0 319 5 43 1 4.3 4.4
8-S.Bradford SL 1 -0.24 -5.0 -0.24 -0.13 41.0 30 17 56.7 188 4 22 0 20.0 4.9
7-T.Jackson SEA 1 -0.26 -3.0 -0.26 -0.06 42.0 37 21 56.8 197 5 42 1 16.2 2.6
6-M.Sanchez NYJ 1 -0.28 -0.6 -0.28 -0.01 49.0 44 26 59.1 335 4 20 1 27.3 5.6
5-K.Collins IND 1 -0.33 -13.9 -0.33 -0.36 36.8 31 16 51.6 197 3 25 0 22.6 5.1

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Until his play drops off Brady is still king. Also what young QBS are going to turn out better than AR?

Yeah I don't see any young QB's right now that look like they will turn out better than Rodgers. Brady is still number one and then I have a tie between Rodgers and Brees. But those three to me are clearly the top three.

[mraynrand]

Wasn't the WPA developed under FDR and the EPA under Nixon? PBmax, is here a fractal in there to simplify everything?

[pbmax]

Wasn't the WPA developed under FDR and the EPA under Nixon? PBmax, is here a fractal in there to simplify everything?

Bleach Report doesn't use fractals, but they do use slideshows.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/327835-the-top-ten-nfl-quarterbacks-right-now

[gbgary]

Wasn't the WPA developed under FDR and the EPA under Nixon? PBmax, is here a fractal in there to simplify everything?

lol

[CaptainKickass]

Wasn't the WPA developed under FDR and the EPA under Nixon? PBmax, is here a fractal in there to simplify everything?

No - you're confusing that with the WNBA


:)

[HarveyWallbangers]

Is the TQBR dead? Alex Smith achieved the highest TQBR of the season in a game in which he went 11 for 19 for 170 yards. He team had more rushing yards than passing yards in their 48-3 win--yet Smith was deemed to have the best performance by a QB this year. It beat out Rodgers vs. Denver when he threw for over 400 yards with 4 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs.

[Pugger]

Is the TQBR dead? Alex Smith achieved the highest TQBR of the season in a game in which he went 11 for 19 for 170 yards. He team had more rushing yards than passing yards in their 48-3 win--yet Smith was deemed to have the best performance by a QB this year. It beat out Rodgers vs. Denver when he threw for over 400 yards with 4 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs.

This should prove once and for all this new-fangled QB rating is a joke.