Clouds on the horizon for AAPL????

[Patler]

From a JP Morgan report:


Several supply-chain vendors indicated in the past two weeks that Apple lowered fourth-quarter iPad orders 25 percent, the first such cut that analysts at JPMorgan’s electronic manufacturing services team in Hong Kong (http://topics.bloomberg.com/hong-kong/) said they have ever seen

A number of advisors have put AAPL on watch lists. Might be time for me to lock in my gains.

[Freak Out]

Clouds on the horizon for more than Apple....but seriously...how many tablets and phones can consumers afford?

[MJZiggy]

Clouds on the horizon for more than Apple....but seriously...how many tablets and phones can consumers afford?

Not many in this economy.

[SkinBasket]

Amazon's tablet is the supposed reason behind the cut. $250 for a not annoying tablet. Maybe it'll even have a USB!!

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/09/26/amazons-wednesday-tablet-launch-threat-to-apples-ipad-analysts-say/

[Patler]

Several sources are also suggesting that the continuing economic troubles in Europe have caused Apple to adjust forecasts for IPad sales in Europe significantly. A 25% cutback in orders to suppliers is huge. The only way that this is not bad news for AAPL stock is if the cutback is because they are switching to their own new product offering, but so far this does not seem to be the case.

[Partial]

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/26/apple-analysts-rush-to-its-defense/

Not according to the Wall Street Journal. I'm not worried. Apple stock has already rebounded, which means that this news is pretty much bunk. Amazon tablet is a non-factor right now. We'll have to see, they're trying to undercut the iPhone 5 announcement, but they aren't releasing until early next year I've read. That means iPad 2 is the only game in town for the holiday season and they will sell a lot of iPads.

The big rumor is not that they cut 25% of production, but that they shifted it to Foxconn Brazil over human rights concerns. I think that's far more likely than Apple's demand slowing down... they still can barely keep up with iPad demand.

I cannot reiterate that to consumers the amazon tablet is a non-factor right now. Those people who are interested in reading a lot already have the 70 dollar kindle.

Having said that, it will be a stronger competitor long term than HTC, Sammy, etc on the tablet front because they offer a set of services similar to Apple (music store, video store, app store, etc). Proprietary or not, people want a refined, tight user experience. You can't get this with Google. Amazon, like Apple will be able to offer this.

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/09/27/apples_ipad_2_build_plans_still_well_above_expecta tions.html

edit: Just read Skin's link. 3 million tablets is it for 2012? Apple is going to sell 100+ million. #NotWorried

edit 2: Same article.
“We think the next potential threat to Apple’s tablet dominance is not until late 2012 when Windows 8-based tablets could hit the market,” a second JPMorgan analyst predicted just last week. #NotWorried

[retailguy]

Clouds on the horizon for more than Apple....but seriously...how many tablets and phones can consumers afford?


What goes up, must come down. I'm loving my two new android tablets, even though I've been told they're cheap junk. Seem to do everything I need, and want just fine.

Did you see that android smartphones hit more than 50% of the market in August?

[Scott Campbell]

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Apple Denied Multi-Touch Trademark by Patent Office


By Mike Schuster (http://www.minyanville.com/gazette/bios.htm?bio=137) September 27, 2011 10:48 AM

http://image.minyanville.com/images/articles/comments-bubble.gif



TOUCHY SUBJECT

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/dailyfeed/uploadimage/101310/evil_apple_1286986151.jpg Oh, Apple. In your pursuit to trademark every word or phrase related to your company, why do you insist on going after common terms?

Pod (http://www.minyanville.com/dailyfeed/apple-demands-exclusive-rights-to/). App Store (http://www.minyanville.com/dailyfeed/2011/06/23/apple-will-probably-lose-fight/). Lower case I (http://techpp.com/2010/03/12/apple-cannot-monopolize-the-letter-i-igood/). We can understand wanting to trademark the phrase (http://www.minyanville.com/dailyfeed/is-apple-prepared-to-sue/), "There's an app for that," given the popular ad campaign, but come on. Apples (http://www.tgdaily.com/business-and-law-features/44187-apple-threatens-woolworths-over-new-logo) in (http://www.macnn.com/articles/08/10/07/apple.knocks.vsbt.logo/) logos (http://www.thelogofactory.com/logo_blog/index.php/logo-design-dustup-apple-vs-nyc/)?!

But when it comes to record labels founded by the Beatles, of course there's some wiggle room (http://www.minyanville.com/special-features/articles/Apple-Mac-Steve-Jobs-Apple-trademark/10/6/2010/id/30351).

Unfortunately for Apple, this trademark attempt was another miss. According to MacRumors (http://www.macrumors.com/2011/09/26/apple-denied-trademark-for-multi-touch/), the Trademark Trial and Appeal Board at the US Patent and Trademark Office has denied Apple's application to trademark the word "multi-touch."

The original filing was made on January 9, 2007 -- the same day Steve Jobs unveiled the first-generation iPhone to a rabid audience. The trademark application was initially shot down by a USPTO lawyer, but Cupertino filed an appeal. Well, the persnickety bunch at the USPTO upheld its original decision and affirmed that "multi-touch" is far too common of a phrase.

In its decision (http://www.scribd.com/doc/66447722/Multi-Touch-Trademark), the board wrote, "Again, simply because the applied-for term has been used in association with a highly successful product does not mean the term has acquired distinctiveness. Decision: The examining attorney's finding that the Section 2(f) showing is insufficient is affirmed."

Buck up, Apple. You'll get 'em next time.

Say, has anyone tried to trademark "phone?"

[SkinBasket]

I cannot reiterate that to consumers the amazon tablet is a non-factor right now. Those people who are interested in reading a lot already have the 70 dollar kindle.

And when Amazon convinces them that this is essentially the new kindle, but with all the features of an i-pad, you have an instant upgrade market combined with another market of people who didn't want an ipad because it was either too expense or because too it's gay. Amazon is it's own best advertiser and will plaster the tablet all over the front page, in banners, and recommendations. Oh, and it'll probably have a USB port, making it entirely more accessible to a lot more people for a larger variety of applications.

Apple's going to have to adjust their cost structure or they're going to have to share more of the market.

[retailguy]

And when Amazon convinces them that this is essentially the new kindle, but with all the features of an i-pad, you have an instant upgrade market combined with another market of people who didn't want an ipad because it was either too expense or because too it's gay. Amazon is it's own best advertiser and will plaster the tablet all over the front page, in banners, and recommendations. Oh, and it'll probably have a USB port, making it entirely more accessible to a lot more people for a larger variety of applications.

My "cheap junk" android tablet has a usb port. I moved a bunch of files (video, mp3, and ebooks) to the tablet last night using it. I didn't need any special harware or connector cables. My camera synched up right away too. It's probably because I own nothing but cheap junk and therefore it is all industry standard, it knows how to talk to each other, and doesn't require any special cabling either.




Apple's going to have to adjust their cost structure or they're going to have to share more of the market.

What about the "tight user experience"? I've been told that most people (except for cheap assholes like me) are willing to pay for that.

That amazon tablet sounds interesting. I'm going to consider that at some point to replace the girls IPAD 1's.

[Partial]

And when Amazon convinces them that this is essentially the new kindle, but with all the features of an i-pad, you have an instant upgrade market combined with another market of people who didn't want an ipad because it was either too expense or because too it's gay. Amazon is it's own best advertiser and will plaster the tablet all over the front page, in banners, and recommendations. Oh, and it'll probably have a USB port, making it entirely more accessible to a lot more people for a larger variety of applications.

Apple's going to have to adjust their cost structure or they're going to have to share more of the market.

Long term yes. We'll see. I'm 110% with you that Amazon is a threat that the other companies are not. Competition is going to get fierce with Windows 8 too. We'll see what happens. Amazon is going to need to sell a lot of content to make this a profitable endeavor though. They're either going to be breaking even or losing money on every tablet. That's okay, that's common in video game hardware and consoles are cash cows.

[Deputy Nutz]

Dorks

[mraynrand]

Ten years from now these companies will be handing out the tablets for free, and all we'll be paying for is the content via the cloud. (Thus, the irony of the thread title - the cloud is on everyone's horizon).

edit: We'll be paying for content and Harlan will get it free as a 'basic human right.'

[mraynrand]

Dorks

Meanie

[Partial]

http://www.bgr.com/2011/09/27/sa-apples-ipad-owned-80-of-north-american-tablet-market-in-q2/


Strategy Analytics: Apple iPad Captured 80 Percent of North America Tablet Market in Q2 2011

Boston, MA – September 27, 2011 – According to the latest research from Strategy Analytics, the Apple iPad captured 80 percent share of tablet shipments in North America during the second quarter of 2011. Apple has a tight grip on the American tablet market that Amazon and others will find hard, but not impossible, to break.

Alex Spektor, Senior Analyst at Strategy Analytics, said, “Apple completely dominates the North American tablet market, capturing 80 percent share of 7.5 million shipments during Q2 2011. Apple remains a long way ahead of its main rivals such as Motorola, Samsung, RIM, Asus and HTC. A combination of cool branding, user-friendly hardware, entertaining services and savvy retail distribution has made Apple a formidable market leader.”

Neil Mawston, Director at Strategy Analytics, added, “Provided the pricing, screen size and hardware design are right, Amazon can be one of the main challengers to Apple’s dominance. Like Apple, Amazon has a strong brand, compelling content, sophisticated billing systems and widespread distribution. In effect, Amazon’s new tablet product represents a good opportunity to place an Amazon shopping cart in the hands of American consumers, offering optimized access to purchasing digital content or physical goods from the Amazon online store.”

The full report, Global Tablet Vendor Market Share by Region: Q2 2011, is published by the Strategy Analytics Tablet & Touchscreen (TTS) service, details of which can be found here: http://tinyurl.com/3zs57yr.


I personally think 7.5M total tablets shipped is very low. We'll see on October 18th when Apple does earnings. I think they'll have doubled that number themselves. Apple sold ~10M last quarter, and that was every single iPad they could build since suppliers were having production issues. Those issues being cleared up + back to school sales = 15M is my guess.

[Partial]

Looks like Apple is only going to sell 14M instead of 15M. Surely not 25% cut, but a sizable cut indeed. As Goldman Sachs points out, it likely has nothing to do with demand, more to do with building up for the forthcoming holiday rush.

http://www.bgr.com/2011/09/27/apple-ipad-2-order-cuts-in-q4-reportedly-confirmed/


Claims that surfaced on Monday suggesting Apple had cut iPad 2 orders for the fourth quarter have reportedly been confirmed. JP Morgan analysts Mark Moskowitz and Gokul Hariharan wrote in a note to investors on Monday that Apple had reduced its fourth-quarter iPad 2 orders from 17 million to 13 million units, suggesting that demand for Apple’s market-leading iPad might finally be waning. Some speculated that a portion of iPad production may have moved to Foxconn’s new factory in Brazil while others suggested that the report was not accurate, and JP Morgan’s Moskowitz would later issue a second note backtracking on the firm’s earlier statements. But should he have been so quick to fold? Read on for more.

Goldman Sachs analysts Liang-chun Lin and Bill Shope each claim to have independently confirmed the fourth-quarter production cuts for Apple’s slate. Channel checks performed separately by each of the analysts indicate that iPad shipments in the fourth quarter are now expected to fall between 13 million and 14 million units, below the firm’s earlier estimate of 15.4 million. ”Overall, the data points suggest some slack iPad supply, at both the production and component level,” Lin wrote.

The production cuts suggest a possible decrease in end user demand, however Goldman’s Shope believes that is an unlikely scenario. Instead, the analyst thinks Apple likely increased orders dramatically ahead of the holiday season and is now dropping production down to normal levels. Shope also suggested that Apple may instead be controlling iPad 2 manufacturing very closely in preparation for an iPad 3 launch in early 2012. The firm still sees Apple shipping between 28 million and 30 million iPads in the second half of 2011.

“We believe a demand-centric bear case on Apple’s stock will quickly disintegrate in the face of multiple October product catalysts (next gen iPhone, iOS5, and iCloud), remarkably strong September quarter results, and what we expect to be solid iPad, Mac and iPhone momentum in the December quarter,” Shope wrote in his note. Goldman Sachs reiterated its $520 price target on Apple stock with a Conviction Buy rating.

On the plus side, a 520 target price and a 'conviction buy' rating from a global thought leader is about as good as it gets. Time to buy.

Earnings are going to be very interesting October 18th. I have to wonder how many iPhones they'll actually have sold after tempering the enthusiasm after the previous earnings citing a "product transition". They set the expectations much lower for this quarter after having a hall-of-fame type quarter preceding. The 16 month old iPhone is still the best selling phone. That's a little bit crazy as it's well under-powered by todays standard. Having said that, it's still a faster/better user experience then the competition so I'm not too surprised. I have to imagine the margins are ridiculously high right now as the components are all pretty outdated now. That would be sweet if Apple is making 500-550 per phone that they sell to carriers for 650.

[Deputy Nutz]

NERDS!!!

[MJZiggy]

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/26/apple-analysts-rush-to-its-defense/

Not according to the Wall Street Journal. I'm not worried. Apple stock has already rebounded, which means that this news is pretty much bunk. Amazon tablet is a non-factor right now. We'll have to see, they're trying to undercut the iPhone 5 announcement, but they aren't releasing until early next year I've read. That means iPad 2 is the only game in town for the holiday season and they will sell a lot of iPads.

The big rumor is not that they cut 25% of production, but that they shifted it to Foxconn Brazil over human rights concerns. I think that's far more likely than Apple's demand slowing down... they still can barely keep up with iPad demand.

I cannot reiterate that to consumers the amazon tablet is a non-factor right now. Those people who are interested in reading a lot already have the 70 dollar kindle.

Having said that, it will be a stronger competitor long term than HTC, Sammy, etc on the tablet front because they offer a set of services similar to Apple (music store, video store, app store, etc). Proprietary or not, people want a refined, tight user experience. You can't get this with Google. Amazon, like Apple will be able to offer this.

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/09/27/apples_ipad_2_build_plans_still_well_above_expecta tions.html

edit: Just read Skin's link. 3 million tablets is it for 2012? Apple is going to sell 100+ million. #NotWorried

edit 2: Same article. #NotWorried

Interesting. PC World seems to think that the Amazon Kindle Fire, which comes out Wednesday, is a little bit more than a new reader. Combined with the iPad reduction, someone should be #Worried.

http://www.pcworld.com/article/240651/amazons_kindle_tablet_ipad_rival_or_ereader_on_ste roids.html

[Partial]

Interesting. PC World seems to think that the Amazon Kindle Fire, which comes out Wednesday, is a little bit more than a new reader. Combined with the iPad reduction, someone should be #Worried.

http://www.pcworld.com/article/240651/amazons_kindle_tablet_ipad_rival_or_ereader_on_ste roids.html

It gets announced Wednesday. It doesn't come out Wednesday.

iPads are not really getting reduced according to Goldman Sachs. They're exceeding everyone's wildest expectations. The Goldman Sachs article said, and I quote, "The production cuts suggest a possible decrease in end user demand, however Goldman’s Shope believes that is an unlikely scenario". No sense in debating this. We might as well just wait until October 18th and hear all about the iPad sales. My guess is they'll shatter expectations.

I agree that Amazon is the chief competitor right now and Apple should be a little worried. I love Amazon, so I'm glad they're entering the fray because it'll push technology forward. Having said that, if competitors are having a very hard time meeting Apple's 500 dollar price point and remaining profitable, it's quite likely that Amazon is either A) losing 250$ per tablet or B) making more of a Nook (as mentioned in your article) then a full-blown tablet. If it's the prior, that's a risky move to make as the Android ecosystem doesn't support buying content. Android app developers don't make very much money at all compared to iOs counterparts. If it's the latter, I think it'll mollywomp the Nook and dominate the hybrid poor mans tablet/reader space.

Finally, as I've said several times, Apple doesn't need to be a market leader in this space to continue being extremely profitable and seeing growth. Even if their market share drops to 40%, with the way the space itself is blowing up, Apple will come along for the ride.

There are not clouds for AAPL in the near future beyond iCloud and the benefits that will provide to users and shareholders alike.

FWIW, JP Morgan redacted their statement. The companies stance does not agree with that particular analysts.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-26/apple-report-by-jpmorgan-asia-staff-not-view-of-u-s-team-moskowitz-says.html


NERDS!!!

Pretty much spot on.

[Partial]

Seeking Alpha, a stock trading website, just published an article about how mathematically Apple is the most undervalued stock in the world right now. They also make a notion to a 10% jump coming very soon. W00t w00t!

http://seekingalpha.com/article/295864-hold-onto-your-apple-its-pe-is-about-to-experience-a-gut-wrenching-drop


Apple remains the single most undervalued stock out there.

Here's another excerpt from
http://seekingalpha.com/article/295406-4-undervalued-technology-stocks-with-attractive-valuations


Apple Inc. (AAPL) – AAPL's stock price has been in an upward trend since 2009. Now, the stock is being traded around $382. Also, the stock has traded in a 52-week range between $265.52 and $404.50.

Apple's return on invested capital (ROIC) is more than 200% versus its WACC of around 8%. This means that Apple is a great allocator of capital. The profit margin of the company is 23.53%. AAPL stock has price-to-earnings ratio of 15.12 and a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.84. Again, price-earnings-to-growth ratio is 0.64, demonstrating a lower value than it should be. Shares could maintain a PEG closer to 1.

Further analysis of price-to-earnings ratio and price-earnings-to-growth ratio is possible to demonstrate the stock is even cheaper than meets the eye. Subtracting cash and marketable securities per share from its price, the stock is more attractive at an adjusted price-to-earnings ratio and price-earnings-to-growth ratio around 9.0 and 0.41, respectively.

However, it’s clear that AAPL stock is cheaper than Google (GOOG) stock. Also, price-to-sales ratio is lower and stronger than Google's stock at 3.51. Its earnings-per-share is $25.28 currently compared with Google's at $27.72. I strongly recommend AAPL stock as a buy and hold, especially for long-term investors such as retirees.


This article lists 20 stocks that are fantastic "value" investments mathematically. Not surprisingly, Apple is in the middle of the road of the top 20.

Bretsky and Patler alert! Bretsky and Patler alert! Bretsky and Patler alert! Bretsky and Patler alert!

http://seekingalpha.com/article/295752-20-undervalued-momentum-stocks-taking-off-right-now

Here is Yahoo!'s financial analyst breakdown on the stock value. As you can see, every Analyst they have says it's either a great time to Buy, Strong Buy, or Hold.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=AAPL+Analyst+Opinion

On the MSN Finance page for AAPl, they rate it as a 10/10 Strong Buy right now.

I'd say the future looks good by all accounts from the professionals.


Update: Read this note from JP Morgan about expecting the next iPhone Big Bang. China and pre-paid penetration are the focus.
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/09/19/get-ready-for-another-iphone-big-bang-says-j-p-morgan/?iid=EAL

[Patler]

iPads are not really getting reduced according to Goldman Sachs. They're exceeding everyone's wildest expectations. The Goldman Sachs article said, and I quote, "The production cuts suggest a possible decrease in end user demand, however Goldman’s Shope believes that is an unlikely scenario". No sense in debating this. We might as well just wait until October 18th and hear all about the iPad sales. My guess is they'll shatter expectations.
There are not clouds for AAPL in the near future beyond iCloud and the benefits that will provide to users and shareholders alike.

FWIW, JP Morgan redacted their statement. The companies stance does not agree with that particular analysts.

Lots of conflicting information, including confirmation of the reduction from some Asian analysts. It will be a couple more days before this gets sorted out, but in an up market AAPL dropped below $400 today.

Neither Goldman Sacks nor JP Morgan are known as particularly accurate analysts in the technology sector (+/- 50% accuracy ratings). Market Edge, Needham and Ned Davis have 90%+ accuracy ratings, and so far they have been silent on this issue as far as I can find out.

[Partial]

Lots of conflicting information, including confirmation of the reduction from some Asian analysts. It will be a couple more days before this gets sorted out, but in an up market AAPL dropped below $400 today.

Neither Goldman Sacks nor JP Morgan are known as particularly accurate analysts in the technology sector (+/- 50% accuracy ratings). Market Edge, Needham and Ned Davis have 90%+ accuracy ratings, and so far they have been silent on this issue as far as I can find out.

Gene Munster is pretty good or so I've heard. I'm not at all worried about the stock. Down market schmown market. You and I both know what's coming and what's going to move the dial big time for a few months at the very least. Words cannot describe how excited I am for it.

Just read a story about TMobile's CMO making a very public plea to Apple to give them the iPhone. That speaks volumes about the state of other handsets and how Android is only selling on carriers that don't have the iPhone.

"T-Mobile USA CMO issues public plea for Apple’s iPhone"

http://www.bgr.com/2011/09/27/t-mobile-usa-cmo-issues-public-plea-for-apples-iphone/

[Patler]

Seeking Alpha, a stock trading website, just published an article about how mathematically Apple is the most undervalued stock in the world right now. They also make a notion to a 10% jump coming very soon. W00t w00t!

http://seekingalpha.com/article/295864-hold-onto-your-apple-its-pe-is-about-to-experience-a-gut-wrenching-drop



Here's another excerpt from
http://seekingalpha.com/article/295406-4-undervalued-technology-stocks-with-attractive-valuations




This article lists 20 stocks that are fantastic "value" investments mathematically. Not surprisingly, Apple is in the middle of the road of the top 20.

Bretsky and Patler alert! Bretsky and Patler alert! Bretsky and Patler alert! Bretsky and Patler alert!

http://seekingalpha.com/article/295752-20-undervalued-momentum-stocks-taking-off-right-now

Here is Yahoo!'s financial analyst breakdown on the stock value. As you can see, every Analyst they have says it's either a great time to Buy, Strong Buy, or Hold.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=AAPL+Analyst+Opinion

On the MSN Finance page for AAPl, they rate it as a 10/10 Strong Buy right now.

I'd say the future looks good by all accounts from the professionals.


Update: Read this note from JP Morgan about expecting the next iPhone Big Bang. China and pre-paid penetration are the focus.
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/09/19/get-ready-for-another-iphone-big-bang-says-j-p-morgan/?iid=EAL

There is nothing new with any of that. AAPL has been a strong buy on most everyones' list for the last 18 months or so. Right now it is the only "pure stock" that I own, the rest that I am managing on my own is in ETFs. (I don't include my mutual funds in what I consider to manage myself.)

The thing you really have to respect and be atune to, Partial, is that history is repleat with stories of can't miss stocks that fell precipitously with little warning. Just recently, AAPL was at $400, then dropped to $330 rather quickly, before slowly climbing back up again. It has done that several times. You can easily get lulled to sleep, ignore news and expect every drop to be only short term. A stock like AAPL has made a lot of people a lot of money on paper that they will want to lock in at some point. If a "routine" drop of 20% like we have seen several times happens to meet at the bottom with bad news, panic selling in that stock can result from people not wanting to risk their gains. In the market right now, companies that only meet expectations in quarterly reports have seen their stocks drop. That is unusual. For a stock like AAPL, it could be devastating. If it happens, it can take a few years to recover from it.

I will continue holding AAPL, but I won't be blind to early warning signs that might arise.

[SkinBasket]

My brother in law has an ipad. They use it for recipes. Other than that it's pretty useless, and he's an IT dork, so it's not like he doesn't know how to use it. The ipad that is, because I'm 100% sure he doesn't know how to have sex. With girls anyway.

[Zool]

My brother in law has an ipad. They use it for recipes. Other than that it's pretty useless, and he's an IT dork, so it's not like he doesn't know how to use it. The ipad that is, because I'm 100% sure he doesn't know how to have sex. With girls anyway.

Please. I've watched him look up complicated new sex positions with it.

Another way to look at this "debate" is to find out who companies are comparing their product to. Is anything on the market the next "Samsung Galaxy killer"?

Also penis.

[Patler]

From a JP Morgan report:



A number of advisors have put AAPL on watch lists. Might be time for me to lock in my gains.


Several sources are also suggesting that the continuing economic troubles in Europe have caused Apple to adjust forecasts for IPad sales in Europe significantly. A 25% cutback in orders to suppliers is huge. The only way that this is not bad news for AAPL stock is if the cutback is because they are switching to their own new product offering, but so far this does not seem to be the case.


http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/26/apple-analysts-rush-to-its-defense/

Not according to the Wall Street Journal. I'm not worried. Apple stock has already rebounded, which means that this news is pretty much bunk. Amazon tablet is a non-factor right now. We'll have to see, they're trying to undercut the iPhone 5 announcement, but they aren't releasing until early next year I've read. That means iPad 2 is the only game in town for the holiday season and they will sell a lot of iPads.

The big rumor is not that they cut 25% of production, but that they shifted it to Foxconn Brazil over human rights concerns. I think that's far more likely than Apple's demand slowing down... they still can barely keep up with iPad demand.

I cannot reiterate that to consumers the amazon tablet is a non-factor right now. Those people who are interested in reading a lot already have the 70 dollar kindle.

Having said that, it will be a stronger competitor long term than HTC, Sammy, etc on the tablet front because they offer a set of services similar to Apple (music store, video store, app store, etc). Proprietary or not, people want a refined, tight user experience. You can't get this with Google. Amazon, like Apple will be able to offer this.

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/09/27/apples_ipad_2_build_plans_still_well_above_expecta tions.html

edit: Just read Skin's link. 3 million tablets is it for 2012? Apple is going to sell 100+ million. #NotWorried

edit 2: Same article. #NotWorried


Lots of conflicting information, including confirmation of the reduction from some Asian analysts. It will be a couple more days before this gets sorted out, but in an up market AAPL dropped below $400 today.

Neither Goldman Sacks nor JP Morgan are known as particularly accurate analysts in the technology sector (+/- 50% accuracy ratings). Market Edge, Needham and Ned Davis have 90%+ accuracy ratings, and so far they have been silent on this issue as far as I can find out.

In view of AAPL's quarterly "miss" maybe there was some substance to this.

[Partial]

Pat the "miss" is ridiculous. It beat Apple's projected figures. The problem is wall st. overhyped the thing. They were late on the iPhone, simple as that. Apple itself is setting expectations of 37B next quarter, so they'll likely hit 40. That's insane. The stock will bounce back tomorrow when cooler heads prevail.

[Freak Out]

Buy low sell high.

Patler....you own any XOM?

[Patler]

Pat the "miss" is ridiculous. It beat Apple's projected figures. The problem is wall st. overhyped the thing. They were late on the iPhone, simple as that. Apple itself is setting expectations of 37B next quarter, so they'll likely hit 40. That's insane. The stock will bounce back tomorrow when cooler heads prevail.

Partial;

You are doing a dangerous thing, you are making excuses for a report that was a miss, plain and simple. It's not ridiculous, its a miss. Their first in 6 years.

In another thread you raved about analysts projections on the stock price, now you say their quarterly projections don't matter. Well, guess what, their stock projections are based on their quarterly projections, and that is what their recommendations come from.

In some ways the street's projections are more important, because they should be objective. If you follow only the companies own numbers, you will be misled by overly conservative projections so they never miss. You acknowledged as much when you wrote;"Apple itself is setting expectations of 37B next quarter, so they'll likely hit 40."

Stay objective.

[Patler]

Patler....you own any XOM?

No, I never have owned any.

[Partial]

Partial;

You are doing a dangerous thing, you are making excuses for a report that was a miss, plain and simple. It's not ridiculous, its a miss. Their first in 6 years.

In another thread you raved about analysts projections on the stock price, now you say their quarterly projections don't matter. Well, guess what, their stock projections are based on their quarterly projections, and that is what their recommendations come from.

In some ways the street's projections are more important, because they should be objective. If you follow only the companies own numbers, you will be misled by overly conservative projections so they never miss. You acknowledged as much when you wrote;"Apple itself is setting expectations of 37B next quarter, so they'll likely hit 40."

Stay objective.

How is it a miss? Apple said they had a "product transition" and lowered expectations. They nailed the numbers they said they would. If you exceed what you're supposed to, it's a hit - not a miss.

Analysts with cool heads are not sweating this. In fact, many estimates raised target price yesterday. Stock has already rebounded to 408. Turns out it was a gross over-reaction yesterday.

The problem with the risk taking analysts estimates is they're too high and setting Apple up for failure since it's a dream stock. Apple says 25 Bil, crazy analysts say 30 bil, so when they hit 29 it looks like a crap quarter.

Still long for AAPL. Still on the way to 1000 absolutely.

[Patler]

How is it a miss? Apple said they had a "product transition" and lowered expectations. They nailed the numbers they said they would. If you exceed what you're supposed to, it's a hit - not a miss.

Analysts with cool heads are not sweating this. In fact, many estimates raised target price yesterday. Stock has already rebounded to 408. Turns out it was a gross over-reaction yesterday.

The problem with the risk taking analysts estimates is they're too high and setting Apple up for failure since it's a dream stock. Apple says 25 Bil, crazy analysts say 30 bil, so when they hit 29 it looks like a crap quarter.

Still long for AAPL. Still on the way to 1000 absolutely.

If you don't understand why this is a "miss" you don't understand the market very well. The question to ask is not if this is a "miss" or not, it absolutely is a miss. The question to ask is why they missed. All financial reports are judged on the market by the consensus estimates of the analysts. If it is judged only against the company's numbers, no one would ever miss. It's the analysts job to be objective.

Anything analysts did yesterday is irrelevant, because it was before AAPL's announcement, which came after the close. However, as I wrote in another thread, the important thing is what new estimates come out after the announcement, and so far those look good. Analysts are seeing it not as lost sales, but as postponed sales which they expect to be picked up in 2012 Q1 & Q2.

AAPL could still be in line for some strong profit taking that could drift the price downward over the next week or 10 days. It's down a just little over 4% as I type this, but could continue to drift negative.

Partial, a bit of friendly advice: You have a tendency to laud the analysts when they support your opinion on AAPL, and ridicule them when they don't. You did both in the quote above:


"Analysts with cool heads are not sweating this. In fact, many estimates raised target price yesterday. Stock has already rebounded to 408. "

" Apple says 25 Bil, crazy analysts say 30 bil, so when they hit 29 it looks like a crap quarter."You really should try to be more objective and less emotional in your analysis, or at some point it will come back to bite you.

[Zool]

Patler you're being logical. Just have him watch this video and study the lyrics.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-07_2DWfEmQ

[Partial]

If you don't understand why this is a "miss" you don't understand the market very well. The question to ask is not if this is a "miss" or not, it absolutely is a miss. The question to ask is why they missed. All financial reports are judged on the market by the consensus estimates of the analysts. If it is judged only against the company's numbers, no one would ever miss. It's the analysts job to be objective.

Anything analysts did yesterday is irrelevant, because it was before AAPL's announcement, which came after the close. However, as I wrote in another thread, the important thing is what new estimates come out after the announcement, and so far those look good. Analysts are seeing it not as lost sales, but as postponed sales which they expect to be picked up in 2012 Q1 & Q2.

AAPL could still be in line for some strong profit taking that could drift the price downward over the next week or 10 days. It's down a just little over 4% as I type this, but could continue to drift negative.

Partial, a bit of friendly advice: You have a tendency to laud the analysts when they support your opinion on AAPL, and ridicule them when they don't. You did both in the quote above:

You really should try to be more objective and less emotional in your analysis, or at some point it will come back to bite you.

I look at specific analysts. A lot had ridiculously high estimates (30+ bil). Some have numbers right around what Apple had come in (28 bil). I don't necessarily look at the average because as life has taught us the average person is not very smart. I look at what the best and most in tune w/ supply chain sources say.

By all accounts, Apple kicked ass yesterday. Was it a super mega kickass? Maybe not, but it was still a mega kick ass. I'm still long for AAPL. The stock is still extremely undervalued. Postponed sales is absolutely right.

I'm extremely objective. I only look at numbers. No emotion is at play at all. We're looking at different numbers, though.

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/10/19/apple-earnings-smackdown-the-bloggers-got-clobbered/?iid=SF_F_LN

They missed by a little bit. I'm not worried and you shouldn't be either. This is an exciting time to be an AAPL owner.

[retailguy]

^^That ought to be his theme song.

Partial, one more warning and I'm done. YOU ARE NOT DIVERSIFIED. Get there today. Take the profits you've made, and get your exposure to a reasonable level. If you don't you're setting yourself up for a big fall. The risk just isn't worth it.

[Patler]

I look at specific analysts. A lot had ridiculously high estimates (30+ bil). Some have numbers right around what Apple had come in (28 bil). I don't necessarily look at the average because as life has taught us the average person is not very smart. I look at what the best and most in tune w/ supply chain sources say.

By all accounts, Apple kicked ass yesterday. Was it a super mega kickass? Maybe not, but it was still a mega kick ass. I'm still long for AAPL. The stock is still extremely undervalued. Postponed sales is absolutely right.

I'm extremely objective. I only look at numbers. No emotion is at play at all. We're looking at different numbers, though.

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/10/19/apple-earnings-smackdown-the-bloggers-got-clobbered/?iid=SF_F_LN

They missed by a little bit. I'm not worried and you shouldn't be either. This is an exciting time to be an AAPL owner.

You do realize, don't you, that the estimates by which all companies are judged is the "consensus estimates", which for most investment sites is a weighted average leaning toward the estimates of the historically most accurate for the company? For AAPL, that generally includes 20-30 estimates (maybe more).

The article you cited makes it even worse for AAPL, if I read it correctly. Not only did they miss the consensus estimate, they missed every single individual estimate of the 53 reported. They missed even the closest one by 250 million in sales.

In a way, this is AAPL's fault. They continually offered unreliable estimates and guidance, which resulted in very significant "beats" of the consensus estimates (that were even higher than AAPL's own estimates) for the last 5-6 years. I have posted many times that AAPL share price did not follow normal patterns. It often leveled or dipped after earnings announcements that beat consensus estimates. In retrospect, it was because no one really knew what to expect.

AAPL cried wolf once too many times, no one believed them, and the consensus estimates reflected past actuals compared to AAPL's own guidance. Only this time AAPL actually may have been accurate in their revised estimates; but no one believed them (why should they based on AAPL's past?). It resulted in a clear miss this quarter.

In an ideal world analysts could believe companies and their estimates would closely match. Reports would not vary much from estimates, and share prices would better reflect actual financials.

If you can't accept that this was a miss for AAPL, in my opinion you are not being objective at all. Passion frames your arguments. This was anything but a "kickass" report from AAPL.

I will continue to hold some AAPL, but I may sell half of what I have. The stock could stagnate for a quarter or two, and I might be able to find something that will return better. I can always buy back in to AAPL in a quarter or two if their next reports are better.

[Patler]

^^That ought to be his theme song.

Partial, one more warning and I'm done. YOU ARE NOT DIVERSIFIED. Get there today. Take the profits you've made, and get your exposure to a reasonable level. If you don't you're setting yourself up for a big fall. The risk just isn't worth it.

Retail;

I understood Partial to say that most of what he has saved is in some mutual funds. If that is true, he may in fact be adequately diversified. This might be nothing more than additional money he chooses to invest on his own. In that regard, its not any different than starting a business. That money isn't diversified either, but it is an investment in something you believe in.

Maybe I'm wrong and all of his eggs really are in a very small basket.

[Partial]

Retail;

I understood Partial to say that most of what he has saved is in some mutual funds. If that is true, he may in fact be adequately diversified. This might be nothing more than additional money he chooses to invest on his own. In that regard, its not any different than starting a business. That money isn't diversified either, but it is an investment in something you believe in.

Maybe I'm wrong and all of his eggs really are in a very small basket.

This is correct. I have a large chunk of cash in AAPL and an equally sized one in 401K. Fiance has 401k maxed out annually as well in mutual funds. She has her roth money in mutual funds as well. This is about a 4th of our invested money.

[Patler]

So, AAPL finishes the day off $23.62 (5.59%). Not as bad as it could have been. But, it declined steadily from about 10:30 this morning until the close. Volume was almost double both the 10-day and 90-day averages. It closed less than a dollar above its low for the day, which it hit just before the close. There was no panic on the open either in price or volume. A good part of the early morning it was down 4%, but then it started a gradually but steady decline for the remainder of the session.

The next two days will be interesting. Does it level, continue to decline, or bounce back a little? I always expected that at the first sign of anything negative, there would be a lot of profit taking. A lot of people have significant paper profits in AAPL, and some will want to lock them in. A sell-off with slowly eroding price could drag on for a few days as more and more investors decide to lock in their AAPL profits.

I think I will put a stop in for half my shares at around $380, which would be at about 10% below its close on Tuesday. If it goes below that, I think it will languish at least until it's next quarterly report.

[retailguy]

Retail;

I understood Partial to say that most of what he has saved is in some mutual funds. If that is true, he may in fact be adequately diversified. This might be nothing more than additional money he chooses to invest on his own. In that regard, its not any different than starting a business. That money isn't diversified either, but it is an investment in something you believe in.

Maybe I'm wrong and all of his eggs really are in a very small basket.


This is correct. I have a large chunk of cash in AAPL and an equally sized one in 401K. Fiance has 401k maxed out annually as well in mutual funds. She has her roth money in mutual funds as well. This is about a 4th of our invested money.

What partial posted before indicated 50% of his money. It still is 50% of his money. His fiance is not yet his wife. (Technical? Sure, but true).

Even 25% of my money invested in one company stock is gambling. It might be a well placed gamble and it might not. He's frequently said over and over that he plans to use this "investment" money to pay cash for a house. Unless he's planning to live in a shed, that's a LOT of money. Far too much from this perspective to be invested in one single company stock.

It is just too risky. If it fails it has significant life effect. It is not hard to diversify and ensure that you have your investment available to grow for many years. This way? Destruction is inherently more likely. That's my point.

[MJZiggy]

^^^Denial isn't helping either. Instead of trying to find data to support your opinion, aren't you supposed to let the data form your opinion?

[Patler]

What partial posted before indicated 50% of his money. It still is 50% of his money. His fiance is not yet his wife. (Technical? Sure, but true).

Even 25% of my money invested in one company stock is gambling. It might be a well placed gamble and it might not. He's frequently said over and over that he plans to use this "investment" money to pay cash for a house. Unless he's planning to live in a shed, that's a LOT of money. Far too much from this perspective to be invested in one single company stock.

It is just too risky. If it fails it has significant life effect. It is not hard to diversify and ensure that you have your investment available to grow for many years. This way? Destruction is inherently more likely. That's my point.

If 25% of his entire savings is in one stock, that's extremely risky.

[Patler]

Instead of trying to find data to support your opinion, aren't you supposed to let the data form your opinion?

That seems to be a skill learned later in life! :lol:

[MJZiggy]

That seems to be a skill learned later in life! :lol:

God I'm old...

[retailguy]

If 25% of his entire savings is in one stock, that's extremely risky.

Like I said, "technically" it is 50% of his savings, as he, and said 'fiance' are NOT yet married, and he's reliant on her money to hit 25%....

That's why I said it was risky. If he wins this time, in my mind, it encourages this behavior in the future, and eventually, he'll lose. The longer it goes on, the bigger the loss. That's how folks lost their entire life savings when Enron collapsed!

[retailguy]

God I'm old...

Isn't it past your bedtime, Grandma?

[MJZiggy]

Isn't it past your bedtime, Grandma?

Suck it, pops. No matter how old I get, you'll still be older!

[retailguy]

Suck it, pops. No matter how old I get, you'll still be older!

I'd respond to this, but I'm already asleep.