Smidgeon
10-25-2011, 05:50 PM
I thought I'd take a different angle on the stats for the bye week. Instead of calculating many of these stats based on a per game basis, I thought I'd look to see how the Packers are doing on a per attempt basis. The idea being, if opponents are trying to play catch-up and passing a lot, how would the defense look if these stats were regulated all across the board. I also added some other strong teams for comparisons. (I mostly ignored running stats since the best RB plays on a 1-6 team and an average running team is the only undefeated team in the league.)
Offense
Category Packers Rank Lions Saints Patriots
Pass % 71.3 1st 60.4 70.9 67.5
Yrd/Att 9.4 1st 6.8 8.0 8.9
TD% 8.3 1st 5.9 6.0 6.8
Int% 1.67 6th 1.5 2.7 3.4
1st% 41.7 2nd 33.0 41.5 44.7
20+% 11.3 7th 9.3 9.4 13.5
40+% 3.3 2nd 2.2 2.0 1.7
Sck% 6.7 14th 5.2 4.4 4.6
Defense
Category Packers Rank Lions Saints Patriots
Pass % 59.7 15th 64.2 52.9 65.5
Yrd/Att 7.4 23rd 5.6 6.4 8.2
TD% 4.4 19th 3.1 4.7 4.3
Int% 4.8 4th 3.9 1.6 3.4
1st% 36.3 20th 31.5 29.8 40.0
20+% 11.4 27th 5.5 7.5 15.7
40+% 1.8 15th 1.2 2.0 0.9
Sck% 6.2 17th 6.6 5.9 4.3
PDef% 19.8 5th 16.0 18.0 11.5
Differentials
Category Packers Rank Lions Saints Patriots
Pass Rating 44.2 1st 21.3 20.6 12.8
Summary
Offense
As you can see, on a per attempt basis, the Packers are strong in all areas on Offense except for sacks, which is just below league average. The Lions are winning because of their TD and Interception percentages--both Top 5--and a Top 10 sack rate; their offense is near or below average in every other category. The Saints are less explosive than the Lions but are taking fewer sacks and are more efficient in general, excepting interceptions. The Patriots Achilles' heel are the interceptions and below league average on 40+ yard plays.
The Packers certainly look like the class of the NFL on offense when it comes to pure efficiency. I'd like to see the sacks controlled better, but every other major category appears to be Top 5 or close with five of the seven being the best or second best in the league.
Defense
The Packers defense seems to have one saving grace: getting their hands on passes. They're Top 5 in Interception percentage and Pass Defense percentage, but far short in all other defensive categories. The Lions are actually one of the most consistent defensive teams with Top 5 rankings in yard average, TD percentage, Interception %, and 20+ yard%. They also have an above average ranking in 40+ yard %, making them one of the best teams at limiting explosive pass plays. The Saints are doing poorly in both stopping TDs and getting interceptions and sacks, and average in all other categories except completion percentage and first down percentage. Finally, the Patriots rank 28th or worse in six major defensive categories and only have two (interception % and 40+ yard %) ranked better than 16th.
When you break down the defense by attempt, the Packers don't look as bad as their total amounts indicate. Instead of being in the Bottom 5 in many of their statistics, they're only below average when you factor in how often the opponent is trying to catch up. But "only below average" is still bad when you consider this is a team shooting for a second consecutive Super Bowl. This needs to get cleaned up. The only saving grace is that average seems to be enough so far since the offense is so dominant at this point.
Offense
Category Packers Rank Lions Saints Patriots
Pass % 71.3 1st 60.4 70.9 67.5
Yrd/Att 9.4 1st 6.8 8.0 8.9
TD% 8.3 1st 5.9 6.0 6.8
Int% 1.67 6th 1.5 2.7 3.4
1st% 41.7 2nd 33.0 41.5 44.7
20+% 11.3 7th 9.3 9.4 13.5
40+% 3.3 2nd 2.2 2.0 1.7
Sck% 6.7 14th 5.2 4.4 4.6
Defense
Category Packers Rank Lions Saints Patriots
Pass % 59.7 15th 64.2 52.9 65.5
Yrd/Att 7.4 23rd 5.6 6.4 8.2
TD% 4.4 19th 3.1 4.7 4.3
Int% 4.8 4th 3.9 1.6 3.4
1st% 36.3 20th 31.5 29.8 40.0
20+% 11.4 27th 5.5 7.5 15.7
40+% 1.8 15th 1.2 2.0 0.9
Sck% 6.2 17th 6.6 5.9 4.3
PDef% 19.8 5th 16.0 18.0 11.5
Differentials
Category Packers Rank Lions Saints Patriots
Pass Rating 44.2 1st 21.3 20.6 12.8
Summary
Offense
As you can see, on a per attempt basis, the Packers are strong in all areas on Offense except for sacks, which is just below league average. The Lions are winning because of their TD and Interception percentages--both Top 5--and a Top 10 sack rate; their offense is near or below average in every other category. The Saints are less explosive than the Lions but are taking fewer sacks and are more efficient in general, excepting interceptions. The Patriots Achilles' heel are the interceptions and below league average on 40+ yard plays.
The Packers certainly look like the class of the NFL on offense when it comes to pure efficiency. I'd like to see the sacks controlled better, but every other major category appears to be Top 5 or close with five of the seven being the best or second best in the league.
Defense
The Packers defense seems to have one saving grace: getting their hands on passes. They're Top 5 in Interception percentage and Pass Defense percentage, but far short in all other defensive categories. The Lions are actually one of the most consistent defensive teams with Top 5 rankings in yard average, TD percentage, Interception %, and 20+ yard%. They also have an above average ranking in 40+ yard %, making them one of the best teams at limiting explosive pass plays. The Saints are doing poorly in both stopping TDs and getting interceptions and sacks, and average in all other categories except completion percentage and first down percentage. Finally, the Patriots rank 28th or worse in six major defensive categories and only have two (interception % and 40+ yard %) ranked better than 16th.
When you break down the defense by attempt, the Packers don't look as bad as their total amounts indicate. Instead of being in the Bottom 5 in many of their statistics, they're only below average when you factor in how often the opponent is trying to catch up. But "only below average" is still bad when you consider this is a team shooting for a second consecutive Super Bowl. This needs to get cleaned up. The only saving grace is that average seems to be enough so far since the offense is so dominant at this point.