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motife
08-15-2006, 02:37 PM
ROSTER ANALYSIS
Packers filled with questions
Posted: Aug. 14, 2006
On the Packers
Bob McGinn

Green Bay - You can always find 53 players to enter a regular season. Finding 53 players worthy of making a National Football League team is the key question this summer in Green Bay.

The Packers' current 89-man roster represents a sea of uncertainty. Up to six starting jobs haven't been fully determined, not to mention both specialists and the kick returners.

Nevertheless, 3½ weeks before the Sept. 10 opener against Chicago, coach Mike McCarthy remains optimistic that things will fall into place.

"I'm a positive person and the writing's not on the wall yet," McCarthy said Monday. "We can't say, 'Hey, look at these guys.' But we think we have a bright future."

Trading down seven times in his first two drafts, general manager Ted Thompson has selected a total of 23 players. All but two of the draftees remain with the team, and many of them will be asked to be starters or significant backups in 2006.

"We've got to be one of the youngest teams in the league," McCarthy said. "But that's OK. That's where we are. I can't change that, and I'm not going to worry about things I can't change."

The Packers haven't settled on their starting split end, one of their two starting defensive tackles and their starting halfback, although obviously it's Ahman Green's position if he remains healthy.

Fullback, strong-side linebacker and strong safety also seem a bit up in the air, but not in McCarthy's eyes.

"I would think William (Henderson) is pretty well set," McCarthy said. "I'm very comfortable with Ben Taylor. And I have no reason to believe Marquand (Manuel) won't be there at safety."

The team's major depth concerns appear to be a safety and the offensive line.

"I think you've got to look at safety just because you had an injury to a young guy that was doing very well," McCarthy said, referring to Marviel Underwood. "The line, we've got plenty of depth but we're young there, too."

Although roster composition falls under Thompson's job description, McCarthy said all the youth made it almost impossible to estimate how many of the 53 jobs remained available. He pointed to rookie wide receiver-kick returner Cory Rodgers, who stumbled in practice but played solidly Saturday night in San Diego.

"Use Cory Rodgers as an example," McCarthy said. "If you'd have made your 53 before we played the game, where's he at? We're deep but we're unproven."

All teams must be down to 75 players on Aug. 29 and then to the final 53 on Sept. 2. Green Bay's nine roster exemptions stemming from NFL Europe League participation expire Aug. 29.

On Sept. 3, the Packers can sign up to eight players to the practice squad. Candidates are any free agents who do not have an accrued season of free-agency credit (six games on the 53-man roster or injured reserve) or who were on the 45-player active roster for less than nine regular-season games during their only accrued season. A player who has been on a practice squad for three weeks or more in two seasons also is ineligible.

ROSTER ROULETTE: WHO’S IN, WHO ISN’T
POSITION LOCKS GOOD BETS ON THE FENCE LONG SHOTS
WIDE
RECEIVERS (5)
Donald Driver
Greg Jennings
Robert Ferguson Rod Gardner Cory Rodgers
Ruvell Martin
Marc Boerigter Chris Francies
Calvin Russell
Chad Lucas
Leo Bookman
The big story is Jennings, who did nothing but impress until dropping two passes in San Diego. Gardner might look the part but doesn't always play like it and will struggle getting off the jam. Still, he's a lot better than Boerigter, the other well-traveled veteran. Boerigter really isn't that fast anymore. Without speed, he's dead because his hands are shaky and he isn't maneuverable on third downs.

At this point, the fifth job comes down to either Rodgers or Martin. The Packers have a signing-bonus investment of $465,120 in Rodgers, and his reputation for being more of a gamer than practice player looked to be somewhat true on Saturday night. Still, Rodgers hasn't been nearly as productive as Martin on a daily basis. Martin has great size, adequate speed and a big heart. Plus, he's tough enough to cover kicks and make the tackle. However, Rodgers could end up returning kickoffs and perhaps punts if he stops muffing every third or fourth one. Martin remains eligible for the practice squad.

Francies isn't big or fast but is crafty enough to find his way on a practice squad. Russell is fast and tough but also green as grass.
POSITION LOCKS GOOD BET ON THE FENCE LONG SHOTS
TIGHT
ENDS (3)
Bubba Franks David Martin Donald Lee,
Tory Humphrey Zac Alcorn
Martin impressed the coaches by trying to play through a bad hand injury and has held the No. 2 job. There's nothing wrong with Lee, either, although he isn't as athletic as Humphrey. In time, Humphrey might find a home. He's on the short side at 6 feet 2 inches but can really get down the field and make the difficult catch away from his body. He isn't much of a blocker and is an unknown commodity on special teams. The Packers might be well-served to try Humphrey at fullback. It could be his best position and Green Bay needs a successor to William Henderson.

Alcorn, a rookie free agent from Black Hills State, has enough tools to make a practice squad.
POSITION LOCKS GOOD BETS ON THE FENCE LONG SHOTS
OFFENSIVE
LINE (9 or 10)
T Chad Clifton
T Mark Tauscher
C Scott Wells
G Jason Spitz
G Daryn Colledge G-T Tony Moll
C-G Chris White T Josh Bourke
G Michael Moore
T-G Junius Coston T Will Whitticker
G Tupe Peko
C Pete Traynor
T Todd Williams
C-G Wayne Lucier
After playing high and without much leverage in the intra-squad scrimmage, Colledge was described by one personnel man as a "total disaster" in San Diego. He kept getting knocked back and bounced around, showed little or no explosiveness and was soft in pass protection. Spitz had his share of problems against the Chargers but has been the better of the two rookies throughout camp. He's a tough guy.

Moll, a tight end at Nevada until January 2005, probably isn't thick enough in the upper body to survive at guard but shows some tenacity and worked with the No. 1 unit Monday at RG. The strongest guard on the roster is Moore, who was signed off the street on Thursday but has fared remarkably well in one-on-one protection drills. Moore, 29, won the LG job and started the opener for Atlanta in 2004 but immediately suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. He had surgery on the other shoulder in '05 and sat out the year. Moore is rusty, but if Moll and Colledge aren't up to the challenge he could be a decent band-aid solution.

White, a better center than guard, generally holds his own and looks like Wells' backup. The problem is finding players worthy of being No. 8 and No. 9. Coston, who remains practice-squad eligible, was horrible at LT and now gets a shot at RT. If Moore proves he doesn't have anything left, Coston still could be the No. 3 guard. Bourke has size, temperament and adequate athleticism. Unless Colledge starts practicing at his college position of left tackle, Bourke would be the backup on that side.

Whitticker is out indefinitely with a hamstring and is miscast in a zone system. Peko's feet are bad. Traynor is steady and smart but just isn't athletic enough, either.
POSITION LOCKS GOOD BET ON THE FENCE LONG SHOTS
Quarterbacks (3)
Brett Favre
Aaron Rodgers None Ingle Martin Brian Wrobel
Rodgers is about the same size and athletic ability as Martin but there's no comparison in their development. Rodgers' play against San Diego was far better than anything that he showed last summer.

Martin has practiced much better in the last week than he did in the first 10 days and is worth trying to develop. His arm is good and his release is quick. He's just prone to poor decisions. Wrobel, intelligent and fast afoot, hasn't demonstrated natural passing ability.
POSITION LOCKS GOOD BETS ON THE FENCE LONG SHOTS
RUNNING
BACKS (5)
RB Samkon Gado RB Ahman Green FB William Henderson
RB Najeh Davenport
RB-FB Noah Herron
FB Vonta Leach
RB Arliss Beach FB A.J. Cooper
RB Ben Brown
The most stable position on the roster for most of the decade now is one of the more unsettled. Everything depends on whether Green can come back from his torn thigh and return to his pre-2005 form. Somebody else has to stick and, almost by default, it's Gado. That's based more on what he did in '05 than this summer. Few running backs are as smart as Gado, which can be both a blessing and a curse. He's still thinking too much instead of making one cut and attacking the hole.

Davenport remains a rather crude receiver, has lapses in pass protection and absorbs too much punishment because of his upright running style. Given his long injury history, his job is on the line. Herron is a skilled receiver and adequate in protection. He's smart, tough and resourceful. The problem is he lacks speed and athleticism. Beach has more naturalness and vision than Herron but missed a week with a concussion and didn't even start at Kentucky. He's worth another look as a kickoff returner.

Fullback is a problem. Henderson's blocking has taken another turn for the worse this summer. Leach hasn't done anything, either. At least Henderson can catch the ball. Leadership and special-teams might keep Henderson around for another year. Leach would be expendable if the Packers feel comfortable with Herron as the No. 2. Cooper turned out to be just another mini-camp marvel.
POSITION LOCKS GOOD BETS ON THE FENCE LONG SHOTS
DEFENSIVE
LINE (9 or 10)
DE Aaron Kampman
DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila
DT Ryan Pickett DT Colin Cole DT Cullen Jenkins
DE Mike Montgomery
DT Corey Williams
DT Kenderick Allen
DE Kenny Peterson
DT Johnny Jolly
DE Dave Tollefson DE Jason Hunter
DT Jerome Nichols
DE Montez Murphy
Cole has helped himself more than any of the tackles and looks like the other starter. Certainly, he's on the team. Then, after the top four, it's about as clear as mud.

Allen entered camp as the other starting tackle but has been disappointing. About all he does is take up space. Williams got off to a slow start and works hard. Still, he doesn't offer much pass rush and tends to run around blocks. Jenkins is the best interior pass rusher and should be secure, but against the run he often gets moved or buckled. Jolly has had a solid rookie camp but needs a lot of work. He has good range and holds his ground OK.

Montgomery figures as the No. 3 end but the Packers always will look to replace him. He does play with tremendous intensity. Peterson is the same average player that he has always been. Tollefson could use a year on practice squad to put on 15 pounds.

Hunter is even more undersized than Tollefson but flies off the edge and plays with surprising leverage. In a year or two he would have a chance.
POSITION LOCKS GOOD BETS ON THE FENCE LONG SHOTS
LINEBACKERS (6)
MLB Nick Barnett
WLB A.J. Hawk
MLB Abdul Hodge SLB Ben Taylor SLB Brady Poppinga
OLB Tracy White
OLB Roy Manning MLB Tim Goodwell
WLB Kurt Campbell
SLB Kevin Schimmelmann
Poppinga would have a shot to start on the strong side if his knee holds up and his ongoing adjustment to linebacker goes well. Even if Poppinga does supplant Taylor, Taylor's ability to play all three positions and his modest cap number ($665,280) should keep him on the roster. Plus, he's a better football player than White or Manning.

White is an outstanding special-teams player but a nondescript linebacker. He hasn't tackled with much authority and, though fast, is on the stiff side. Manning looks the part but if he has improved it hasn't been noticeable. Goodwell is physical in the middle and might warrant a practice-squad berth. Campbell had reconstructive knee surgery 365 days ago and still didn't seem all the way back before going down with a hamstring.
POSITION LOCKS GOOD BETS ON THE FENCE LONG SHOTS
SECONDARY (9)
CB Charles Woodson
S Nick Collins
CB Al Harris S Marquand Manuel
CB Ahmad Carroll
S Tyrone Culver CB Mike Hawkins
CB Jason Horton
S Tra Boger
CB Jerron Wishom CB Therrian Fontenot
CB Patrick Dendy
CB Will Blackmon
S Atari Bigby
S Marviel Underwood
Underwood had taken his game to another level but now is headed for injured reserve with a knee injury. Fortunately for the Packers, Culver was a good pick in the sixth round and might very well be adequate as the No. 3 safety. He's aware, involved and a willing hitter. Boger, an undrafted free agent with size and smarts, needs development but might be worth keeping if Thompson doesn't feel the need to acquire a veteran. Bigby was in the hunt, too, but probably is headed for injured reserve after hand surgery.

At cornerback, Carroll probably is No. 3 even though he has regressed after a good first week. With Blackmon out with a broken foot until at least mid-season, Hawkins and Horton figure to return as No. 4 and No. 5. Hawkins hasn't allayed doubts about his toughness by missing so much time with a knee injury. Horton can run and turn and hit but something's missing from his overall game. Wishom is a physical specimen with OK speed and might be able to play safety. Fontenot has given up way too many big plays.
POSITION LOCKS GOOD BETS ON THE FENCE LONG SHOTS
SPECIALISTS (3)
None LS Rob Davis
P Jon Ryan K Billy Cundiff
P B.J. Sander K Dave Raymer
LS Thomas Gafford
Ryan has become a competent holder and has a much stronger leg than Sander. Ryan would finish him off if his hang times were more consistent. His four punts in San Diego averaged merely 3.80 seconds.

Raymer is out of it based on no track record and inaccuracy on field goals. Plus, Cundiff is average to above on kickoffs, the big advantage that he has on unemployed former Viking Paul Edinger. But Cundiff hasn't demonstrated great range or accuracy on field goals.

Gafford has snapped well and might have a future in the NFL.

pbmax
08-15-2006, 04:18 PM
When I read the O Line portion, it was like reverse Mike Wahle. I can see him faring better at Left Tackle eventually.

And Christl has me blanching whenever I read that a player plays upright and doesn't bend his knees.

BF4MVP
08-15-2006, 04:22 PM
I can't tell which is which, as far as "locks," "good bets," etc...

BallHawk
08-15-2006, 04:31 PM
This team is so unique in the way that they are so close to being 4-12, yet so close to being 9-7.

pbmax
08-15-2006, 04:45 PM
This team is so unique in the way that they are so close to being 4-12, yet so close to being 9-7.
I think the higher end of the spectrum is possible if Green plays a majority of the season healthy AND the Atlanta guard Moore(?) takes the right guard position from Moll (unless somehow Moll looks like a worldbeater).

Colledge then backs up left guard and left tackle.

Then we have a running game.

Favre plays better and raises the games of the WR/TEs/RBs.

Boom.