HarveyWallbangers
11-16-2011, 05:47 PM
Passing is up just 4.6% this year, and just 5 QBs are responsible for the majority of the uptick.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7242598/analyzing-best-worst-deep-passers-nfl
Last year, just one quarterback, Drew Brees, threw for more than 1,000 yards on passes of more than 20 yards. This year, five are on pace to do so: Brees, Eli Manning, Cam Newton, Rodgers and Tony Romo. Even more impressive, from 2008 to 2010, only one quarterback (Brees in 2009) completed more than 50 percent of his passes on deep throws, while this season alone, three (Brees, Rodgers and Romo) are connecting on more than half their throws of more than 20 yards.
Three things stand out about this rise in deep throwing. One is that it's pretty much confined to the above handful of passers. Overall, passing yardage is up by just 4.6 percent around the league (231.7 yards per team per game in 2011 versus 221.6 in 2010), because while several quarterbacks are having great years, a nearly offsetting batch are either having disturbing off seasons (Josh Freeman, Kevin Kolb, Philip Rivers) or enduring rocky times as midseason replacements (John Beck, Blaine Gabbert, Curtis Painter). By themselves, the five superbombers are on track to increase their deep yards by about 3,000 yards from last season (with Newton compared to Jimmy Clausen's 2010 stats), nearly 60 percent of all the yardage the entire league is on pace to add this year.
Further, I'm sure you've heard this in other contexts, but the numbers Rodgers is putting up are just ridiculous. Last year, Brees led the NFL with 16.5 yards per attempt on throws of more than 20 yards. This season, Rodgers is gaining 29.5 yards per attempt on deep throws. That's not a misprint: He's 17-of-25 (68 percent) for a whopping 738 yards when throwing downfield, with seven touchdowns and just one interception. Rodgers' QBR on deep throws: a perfect 100, essentially meaning he's better than anyone the system can simulate...
There is one, and only one, superstar quarterback who has put up huge numbers in 2011 without throwing deep too often or particularly well: Tom Brady (QBR this season: 75.5). Brady leads the NFL with 336.9 passing yards per game and is on pace for a record 5,390 yards (Brees has more total yards, but the Patriots have played one fewer game than the Saints.) But Brady is racking up yards by completing a lot of short and medium passes. For the season, Brady is just 9-of-33 on deep throws (27.3 percent), for 10.1 yards per attempt, one touchdown and one pick, while starting quarterbacks are averaging a 35 percent completion rate and 12.7 YPA. When was the last time Brady was below-average at anything?
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7242598/analyzing-best-worst-deep-passers-nfl
Last year, just one quarterback, Drew Brees, threw for more than 1,000 yards on passes of more than 20 yards. This year, five are on pace to do so: Brees, Eli Manning, Cam Newton, Rodgers and Tony Romo. Even more impressive, from 2008 to 2010, only one quarterback (Brees in 2009) completed more than 50 percent of his passes on deep throws, while this season alone, three (Brees, Rodgers and Romo) are connecting on more than half their throws of more than 20 yards.
Three things stand out about this rise in deep throwing. One is that it's pretty much confined to the above handful of passers. Overall, passing yardage is up by just 4.6 percent around the league (231.7 yards per team per game in 2011 versus 221.6 in 2010), because while several quarterbacks are having great years, a nearly offsetting batch are either having disturbing off seasons (Josh Freeman, Kevin Kolb, Philip Rivers) or enduring rocky times as midseason replacements (John Beck, Blaine Gabbert, Curtis Painter). By themselves, the five superbombers are on track to increase their deep yards by about 3,000 yards from last season (with Newton compared to Jimmy Clausen's 2010 stats), nearly 60 percent of all the yardage the entire league is on pace to add this year.
Further, I'm sure you've heard this in other contexts, but the numbers Rodgers is putting up are just ridiculous. Last year, Brees led the NFL with 16.5 yards per attempt on throws of more than 20 yards. This season, Rodgers is gaining 29.5 yards per attempt on deep throws. That's not a misprint: He's 17-of-25 (68 percent) for a whopping 738 yards when throwing downfield, with seven touchdowns and just one interception. Rodgers' QBR on deep throws: a perfect 100, essentially meaning he's better than anyone the system can simulate...
There is one, and only one, superstar quarterback who has put up huge numbers in 2011 without throwing deep too often or particularly well: Tom Brady (QBR this season: 75.5). Brady leads the NFL with 336.9 passing yards per game and is on pace for a record 5,390 yards (Brees has more total yards, but the Patriots have played one fewer game than the Saints.) But Brady is racking up yards by completing a lot of short and medium passes. For the season, Brady is just 9-of-33 on deep throws (27.3 percent), for 10.1 yards per attempt, one touchdown and one pick, while starting quarterbacks are averaging a 35 percent completion rate and 12.7 YPA. When was the last time Brady was below-average at anything?