Rodger's Giant Interception

[pbmax]

Once in a while, I get it right:

Expectation for nearly flawless football not a problem, players say
By Tyler Dunne of the Journal Sentinel
Dec 7, 2011
http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/packer-offense-embraces-high-standards-0l3brpi-135223453.html


Green Bay - No way his quarterback was at fault. Not a chance. Not the Aaron Rodgers he knows.

"You saw the interception against the Giants," Green Bay Packers tight end Jermichael Finley said. "He was out of place. Guaranteed. No. 93 was out of place."

Not quite, but close. Explaining the play with a chemist's detail, Rodgers admits he never saw Chase Blackburn. He expected the linebacker to trail Randall Cobb down the middle of the field - the New York Giants were in "Tampa-2." Instead, Cobb flattened out his angle. Rodgers should have checked down. Interception.

My only concern is that Rodgers never looked at the LB because he thought he know where he would go. So if you wanted to play all out against Rodgers, you would start by trying to confound his expectations like Rex Ryan did last year versus the Patriots. It presents an angle of attack.

But I love stuff like this. Which would make this a good time to mention he does at least two of these X and O segments on his weekly radio show. They put it on iTunes but its broadcast by ESPN540 in Milwaukee. This is not a paid promotional post.

[vince]

Cobb did flatten out the route, but he was still wide open and should have been the target on that play. It was the play action which took Rodgers' ability to read the defense's actual reaction vs. what they were supposed to do away. Even if the Mike does go deep middle, it's still a mismatch for Cobb and Rodgers didn't look to what I'd think would have been his primary read on that play.

Here's the play.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/green-bay-packers/09000d5d824bd32a/Giants-defense-INT

[pbmax]

Cobb did flatten out the route, but he was still wide open and should have been the target on that play. It was the play action which took Rodgers' ability to read the defense's actual reaction vs. what they were supposed to do away. Even if the Mike does go deep middle, it's still a mismatch for Cobb and Rodgers didn't look to what I'd think would have been his primary read on that play.

Here's the play.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/green-bay-packers/09000d5d824bd32a/Giants-defense-INT

That is the interesting question and probably the one he cannot answer. What was the progression supposed to be?

[vince]

That is the interesting question and probably the one he cannot answer. What was the progression supposed to be?
Yeah. I'd like to think the most explosive opportunity (down the middle one-on-one with no help over the Mike) would be the first read but that's not necessarily the case. It's probably not the highest percentage pass on paper anyway, but Rodgers has had some success with it, particularly with Jennings and Finley. Not so much yet with Cobb in that situation.

[hoosier]

Kevin Seifert has a piece on this same play. Seifert's theme is that Blackburn screwed up his assignment and that sometimes rookie mistakes win out over savvy vets. He even includes a funny anecdote about BJ Surhoff getting fooled by a bases-loaded 3-2 changeup from a rookie pitcher.

For what it is worth, Seifert does make it sound like Jennings would have been the first and best option given the coverage the Giants were showing.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/49720/rodgerswatch-anatomy-of-an-interception


I was a baseball beat writer many ages ago and, recently, I was reminded of a story that applies to a rare occurrence we saw last weekend in the NFC North.

In a late 1990s game, then-Baltimore Orioles left fielder B.J. Surhoff came to bat with the bases loaded. He was facing a young, hard-throwing relief pitcher whose name I have long since forgotten. The pitcher couldn't throw strikes and quickly fell behind. Facing a full count, the pitcher was one ball away from walking in a run.

Everyone in the ballpark figured the next pitch would be a fastball, a pitcher's best chance for throwing a strike or getting contact or somehow avoiding a walk. Surhoff was sitting dead red, as the seamheads like to call it, and almost fell down while swinging early on an improbable change-up.

Furious, Surhoff stormed into the Orioles dugout. As then-manager Ray Miller told us later, Surhoff yelled to the pitcher: "Learn how to play the game!"

Yes, sometimes ignorance beats veteran smarts.

[George Cumby]

Once in a while, I get it right:



Yeah, you nailed it.

In the GDT, your comment was "Rodgers didn't see the LB".

Impressive.

[sharpe1027]

My only concern is that Rodgers never looked at the LB because he thought he know where he would go. So if you wanted to play all out against Rodgers, you would start by trying to confound his expectations like Rex Ryan did last year versus the Patriots. It presents an angle of attack.


I think that is generally what every defensive coordinator tries to do for every game regardless of the QB. The problem is that Rodgers generally stayed one step ahead, or he has been accurate enough that it doesn't matter what the defense was doing.

[hoosier]

I think that is generally what every defensive coordinator tries to do for every game regardless of the QB. The problem is that Rodgers generally stayed one step ahead, or he has been accurate enough that it doesn't matter what the defense was doing.

Not exactly. It's more like Blackburn and the Giants were very lucky they didn't give up a huge play. If you buy Rodgers's public account of what happened, he saw that the Giants were playing cover 2 and so he "knew" the middle linebacker would be getting a deep drop with responsibility for the slot receiver (Cobb). That would have left Jennings open on his slant or whatever he was running. Problem is, the rookie ML blew his coverage (or somehow read Rodgers's mind and jumped the flanker's route) and turned out to be where Rodgers didn't expect him to be. The point is, when a defense plays cover 2 the middle linebacker has responsibility for the intermediate middle. If Rodgers had seen what Blackburn was doing (for instance, if they had called a pass with no play fake), he would also have seen Cobb running free down the seam. It is very unlikely that a professional defensive coordinator would have intentionally risked giving up a long touchdown on the unlikely chance that the opposing QB decides to throw a blind pass on that particular play. The Giants caught lightning in a bottle on that play.

[Upnorth]

Isn't this play similar to what Urlacher did to Arod last time we played the bears? Different route he cutoff but same disguise defense, and same window (could have taken a checkdown but pushed it upfield instead).

[Noodle]

Good observation about the possible effect of play action -- that is the big drawback, the QB's has to turn his back to fake the handoff and loses an opportunity to scan downfield.

One thing I don't want to see happen with A-Rod is blaming his mistakes on the mistakes of his teammates (which I know this post is not doing). This "blame the receiver" thing was particularly rampant with his predecessor, who was never at fault for a pick according to some. I got a whiff of that with all the complaining about drops in the Giants game. Yes, there were a few drops, but there were also a number of poor throws that didn't give his receivers much chance.

And I was a little disappointed in A-Rod for not acknowledging his own failings when he was asked about whether he was frustrated with the drops. He should have said, "yeah, sure, but I'm also disappointed that I didn't throw the ball better today, and that's what I'm going to focus on."

[hoosier]

In the Seifert article he is quoting as acknowledging that he committed the cardinal sin of QBing: throwing the no-look pass.

[ThunderDan]

Not exactly. It's more like Blackburn and the Giants were very lucky they didn't give up a huge play. If you buy Rodgers's public account of what happened, he saw that the Giants were playing cover 2 and so he "knew" the middle linebacker would be getting a deep drop with responsibility for the slot receiver (Cobb). That would have left Jennings open on his slant or whatever he was running. Problem is, the rookie ML blew his coverage (or somehow read Rodgers's mind and jumped the flanker's route) and turned out to be where Rodgers didn't expect him to be. The point is, when a defense plays cover 2 the middle linebacker has responsibility for the intermediate middle. If Rodgers had seen what Blackburn was doing (for instance, if they had called a pass with no play fake), he would also have seen Cobb running free down the seam. It is very unlikely that a professional defensive coordinator would have intentionally risked giving up a long touchdown on the unlikely chance that the opposing QB decides to throw a blind pass on that particular play. The Giants caught lightning in a bottle on that play.

Isn't that what Jarrett Bush did to Rothleisberger in the Super Bowl?

[George Cumby]

Isn't this play similar to what Urlacher did to Arod last time we played the bears? Different route he cutoff but same disguise defense, and same window (could have taken a checkdown but pushed it upfield instead).

My recollection was that Finley ran the wrong route on that one. I specifically remember Jennings and Finley having a fairly heated discussion on the sidelines immediately after the play.

[Upnorth]

So i went and looked at it (talk about picking at a scab) on nfl.com again and I was wrong, Finley was inside, Nelson was outside. Urlacher jumped the route, but did hide then jump like the Giants defender did. Route tree was completley different, but LB play was similar.

[sharpe1027]

Not exactly. It's more like Blackburn and the Giants were very lucky they didn't give up a huge play. If you buy Rodgers's public account of what happened, he saw that the Giants were playing cover 2 and so he "knew" the middle linebacker would be getting a deep drop with responsibility for the slot receiver (Cobb). That would have left Jennings open on his slant or whatever he was running. Problem is, the rookie ML blew his coverage (or somehow read Rodgers's mind and jumped the flanker's route) and turned out to be where Rodgers didn't expect him to be. The point is, when a defense plays cover 2 the middle linebacker has responsibility for the intermediate middle. If Rodgers had seen what Blackburn was doing (for instance, if they had called a pass with no play fake), he would also have seen Cobb running free down the seam. It is very unlikely that a professional defensive coordinator would have intentionally risked giving up a long touchdown on the unlikely chance that the opposing QB decides to throw a blind pass on that particular play. The Giants caught lightning in a bottle on that play.

I agree that on that play particular play, it may not have been intentional, but that wasn't my point. Defensive coordinators generally try to confuse the QBs by doing something different/unexpected. Capers does it more than many.

BF-OBOALOO, the play doesn't seem to give much of a way to attack Rodgers and the Packer's offense.

[Noodle]

In the Seifert article he is quoting as acknowledging that he committed the cardinal sin of QBing: throwing the no-look pass.

You're right, I checked the article and he took the pick on himself. Though I stand by my point on the drops (blind insistence on the correctness of your own opinion being the "deadly internet poster sin").

From the old days, I recall the other deadly QB sin: throwing late over the middle. A-Rod's been pretty good at avoiding damnation for that one.

[hoosier]

Isn't that what Jarrett Bush did to Rothleisberger in the Super Bowl?

Bush says he recognized something based on film--that in that formation they always threw to Wallace or some such thing. If he was gambling at least it was based on something tangible. We haven't heard Blackburn's version of what he was thinking, so hard to say if it was more than just the proverbial blind pig finding an acorn.

[hoosier]

You're right, I checked the article and he took the pick on himself. Though I stand by my point on the drops (blind insistence on the correctness of your own opinion being the "deadly internet poster sin").

From the old days, I recall the other deadly QB sin: throwing late over the middle. A-Rod's been pretty good at avoiding damnation for that one.

Good point. I guess with Arod there are cardinal sins and then there are things that don't even need mentioning. After all, "this isn't Detroit, this the Superbowl!" :-)

[channtheman]

Good observation about the possible effect of play action -- that is the big drawback, the QB's has to turn his back to fake the handoff and loses an opportunity to scan downfield.

One thing I don't want to see happen with A-Rod is blaming his mistakes on the mistakes of his teammates (which I know this post is not doing). This "blame the receiver" thing was particularly rampant with his predecessor, who was never at fault for a pick according to some. I got a whiff of that with all the complaining about drops in the Giants game. Yes, there were a few drops, but there were also a number of poor throws that didn't give his receivers much chance.

And I was a little disappointed in A-Rod for not acknowledging his own failings when he was asked about whether he was frustrated with the drops. He should have said, "yeah, sure, but I'm also disappointed that I didn't throw the ball better today, and that's what I'm going to focus on."

Rodgers has acknowledged his poor play when it has been needed. However, when a receiver drops a ball, it is usually right on the money and there is no need for Rodgers to apologize for throwing a perfect pass. In the last 2 games there seems to have been a lot of drops.

[smuggler]

We areamong the 10 worst teams in the league in total drops, which is incredible, since we only had 1 in the first 3 or 4 weeks. It's even worse when you consider we don't actually attempt that many passes.

[Guiness]

You know what I love? That each of Rodgers interceptions are rare enough that they deserves their own topic, and we have time to analyze and pick it apart before the next one comes along.

If Phillip Rivers was our QB, we could only talk about an INT for a quarter and a bit before we had to move on to analyzing the next one!

Four other QB's in the league have 5 INT's, but three of those have less than 10TDs! The 49ers success makes a little more sense when you see that Alex Smith is the last one, with 15TD passes to 5 INT's.

[channtheman]

We areamong the 10 worst teams in the league in total drops, which is incredible, since we only had 1 in the first 3 or 4 weeks. It's even worse when you consider we don't actually attempt that many passes.

I knew our receivers seemed to drop a lot of passes, but I had no idea it was that bad. Imagine Rodgers completion percentage if our guys catch just half of those.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Don't we pass more than most teams? Which means we'd rank higher in total drops just on sheer volume of passes. What is our rank in drop percentage?

[Joemailman]

Don't we pass more than most teams? Which means we'd rank higher in total drops just on sheer volume of passes. What is our rank in drop percentage?

Actually, Packers are only 18th in passing attempts per game. One reason why Rodgers' passer rating is so high. He's putting up big yardage and TD numbers on fewer throws than the other top QB's.

[hoosier]

Actually, Packers are only 18th in passing attempts per game. One reason why Rodgers' passer rating is so high. He's putting up big yardage and TD numbers on fewer throws than the other top QB's.

No, Joe, you got it backwards: the Packers pass so little because Rodgers is so efficient and the offense is so explosive. The Packers don't need 15 plays to move it up and down the field.

[Joemailman]

No, Joe, you got it backwards: the Packers pass so little because Rodgers is so efficient and the offense is so explosive. The Packers don't need 15 plays to move it up and down the field.

I don't disagree with you. The Packers have passed less than other teams in part because they are so explosive. (The fact that they are always ahead in the 4th quarter may also be a factor). But the fact remains that the fewer passes it takes to achieve yards and TD's, the higher your passer rating will be.

Here is the link for passes dropped per team:

http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

[hoosier]

Agreed.

[Joemailman]

I'm surprised that the Packers are that high on the list for dropped passes. Until the Giant game, I didn't think they'd dropped many at all this year. Maybe those things are just more noticeable when you're losing close games, as they did last year.

[Pugger]

I don't disagree with you. The Packers have passed less than other teams in part because they are so explosive. (The fact that they are always ahead in the 4th quarter may also be a factor). But the fact remains that the fewer passes it takes to achieve yards and TD's, the higher your passer rating will be.

Here is the link for passes dropped per team:

http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

Man, if you check the passing stats on this site Rodgers is all over it! :wow:

[denverYooper]

Here is the link for passes dropped per team:

http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

FINLEY!

I kid, I kid.

[pbmax]

Rk Team Drp/Att Drops COMP ATT PCT YDS YDS/ATT YPG TD INT SCK SCK/YDS RTG
32 Browns 7.53% 35 267 465 57.4 2570 5.53 197.7 14 11 33 180 74.8
31 49ers 7.36% 24 206 326 63.2 2224 6.82 185.3 15 5 34 201 94.7
30 Eagles 6.96% 30 258 431 59.9 3066 7.11 255.5 15 22 21 100 72.9
29 Falcons 6.79% 30 266 442 60.2 2997 6.78 249.8 19 12 22 157 85
28 Dolphins 6.46% 23 215 356 60.4 2421 6.8 201.8 13 9 35 216 84.9
27 Bears 6.38% 24 211 376 56.1 2477 6.59 206.4 15 13 34 229 77.7
26 Broncos 6.35% 20 166 315 52.7 1870 5.94 155.8 18 8 27 163 81.4
25 Rams 6.10% 26 232 426 54.5 2225 5.22 185.4 7 7 43 294 70.7
24 Ravens 5.98% 26 241 435 55.4 2762 6.35 230.2 14 8 22 134 79.1
23 Chiefs 5.91% 22 224 372 60.2 2150 5.78 179.2 11 15 28 164 71.2
22 Packers 5.83% 24 290 412 70.4 3705 8.99 308.8 37 6 29 177 123.9
21 Panthers 5.56% 23 252 414 60.9 3120 7.54 260 13 14 28 204 82.6
20 Bengals 5.42% 22 237 406 58.4 2616 6.44 218 18 13 20 137 80.4
19 Jaguars 5.38% 19 177 353 50.1 1621 4.59 135.1 8 11 34 241 60.4
18 Buccaneers 5.16% 23 272 446 61 2831 6.35 235.9 13 17 21 127 74.4
17 Seahawks 4.99% 19 223 381 58.5 2333 6.12 194.4 11 13 39 275 74.8
16 Jets 4.94% 20 229 405 56.5 2524 6.23 210.3 19 11 26 154 81.1
15 Cardinals 4.86% 19 214 391 54.7 2494 6.38 207.8 14 16 41 295 72.3
14 Giants 4.75% 21 276 442 62.4 3553 8.04 296.1 23 11 21 152 96
13 Lions 4.69% 23 309 490 63.1 3376 6.89 281.3 27 14 24 184 91.4
12 Steelers 4.62% 20 278 433 64.2 3342 7.72 257.1 21 11 37 232 95.6
11 Colts 4.51% 18 224 399 56.1 2329 5.84 194.1 10 11 25 168 71.8
10 Cowboys 4.40% 19 279 432 64.6 3249 7.52 270.8 23 11 25 163 95.9
09 Bills 4.04% 17 266 421 63.2 2740 6.51 228.3 20 15 16 103 83.9
08 Redskins 4.02% 18 263 448 58.7 2800 6.25 233.3 12 19 33 232 70.5
07 Chargers 3.80% 17 278 447 62.2 3331 7.45 277.6 19 17 28 174 84.9
06 Raiders 3.76% 14 215 372 57.8 2723 7.32 226.9 15 16 21 128 77.7
05 Saints 3.62% 18 350 497 70.4 3904 7.86 325.3 30 11 21 136 105.5
04 Titans 3.60% 15 251 417 60.2 2670 6.4 222.5 17 10 17 139 83.9
03 Texans 3.48% 12 208 345 60.3 2683 7.78 223.6 17 6 19 111 95.2
02 Patriots 3.05% 14 306 459 66.7 3799 8.28 316.6 30 10 21 117 105.9
01 Vikings 2.94% 11 216 374 57.8 2329 6.23 194.1 13 10 37 227 79.1

[RashanGary]

Finley does have 40% of the drops. 3 more and he'd have half of our drops.

[channtheman]

What's really crazy is to think about Jennings drop that lead to an INT (I'm not sure who we were playing) that was probably going to be a TD otherwise. That's a big difference in stats on just that play. Rodgers would be nearing 74% completion if 12 of those drops were catches. I'm sure he would have over 4000 yards passing and be right around his 10 yards per attempt as well. Damn receivers!

[Little Whiskey]

...and the packers are thought of as having one of the best receiving corps in the league.

[Noodle]

Stop! I'd love to see a stat that records amazing catches that, but for awesome effort from the receiver, the pass would have been incomplete or a pick.

Imagine what A-Rod's completion rate would be if Jordy, Jennings, Driver & Finley hadn't run great routes, maintained awareness of the situation, and made unbelievable adjustments to the ball. And their ability to pick up yards after the catch is what accounts for a fair amount of the explosiveness of the O.

The most important catch in the Giants game, according to A-Rod, was Finley's catch and run on the final drive. That got the whole thing going.

A-Rod's success is not just due to him, but also to a receiving corps that is assignment sure, athletic, and can flat out ball.

[channtheman]

Stop! I'd love to see a stat that records amazing catches that, but for awesome effort from the receiver, the pass would have been incomplete or a pick.

Imagine what A-Rod's completion rate would be if Jordy, Jennings, Driver & Finley hadn't run great routes, maintained awareness of the situation, and made unbelievable adjustments to the ball. And their ability to pick up yards after the catch is what accounts for a fair amount of the explosiveness of the O.

The most important catch in the Giants game, according to A-Rod, was Finley's catch and run on the final drive. That got the whole thing going.

A-Rod's success is not just due to him, but also to a receiving corps that is assignment sure, athletic, and can flat out ball.

I don't disagree with anything you said, I'm just marveling at how if the receivers had caught the "easy" ones (most statistic sites count a drop as a pass that hit both hands) how much more amazing Rodgers stats would be. We do have a great receiving group that makes amazing catches like Nelson's against the Giants where he somehow got his foot around, but for whatever reason, they all have momentary lapses where they I'm guessing they start looking upfield too soon and drop a really easy one.

[MadtownPacker]

I havent read this thread but I know you elitist aint complaining about one fucking INT. Considering the opponents are playing pass and the Packers are passing all game I say one INT a fucking game wouldnt even be bad. Bottom line Finley catches as high a percentage as he spends talking shit and celebrating this game isnt even close. I really want to like him but that YOTTOing MFer is starting to piss me off.