Opponent Quality and Strategy

[denverYooper]

Green Bay's much-maligned pass defense has been the subject of much debate lately, but it seems we've faced more top passers this year, too.

I'm doing this in terms of yards first, as that seems to be the main discussion involving this D. Note that I don't believe that is the best metric for describing pass performance, it's just the most often bandied about. If I have time, I'll look into other stats (YPA, rating).

THIS YEAR they've faced 6 of the top 10 QBs (Brees(1), Manning(4), Stafford(5), Rivers(6), Newton(9), Ryan(10)). Rodgers is 3rd. Cutler was making a case to move up in that neighborhood until he got injured. That's 50% of the opposing QBs Green Bay has faced. The ONLY top 6 QBs they haven't faced are Brady and Rodgers.

LAST YEAR they faced 4 of the TOP 10 QBs ALL YEAR INCLUDING PLAYOFFS -- Eli (5), Brady(8), and Ryan(9)x2. Funny side note, Orton was in the top 10 last year

THIS YEAR they've faced 4 of the top 5 receivers (C. Johnson, S. Smith, V. Cruz, J. Graham) and 5/10 (H. Nicks is 8th). Greg Jennings is 9th. I was sort of surprised to see that NYG had 2 receivers in the top 10.

LAST YEAR they faced 2/5 of the top receivers (Johnson, Cruz) and 5/10 (Gronk, Wallace, Brown) INCLUDING PLAYOFFS.

THIS YEAR, they've faced 5 of the top 10 PASSING TEAMS (Almost same as above, but Atlanta moves out of the top 10 behind Philly). Tampa Bay is 12th in team passing, so GB has faced 7 of the top 12 Passing teams in terms of YPG.

LAST YEAR they faced 4 of the top 10 PASSING TEAMS-- Was, Nyg, Dal, Philly x 2 -- ALL YEAR INCLUDING PLAYOFFS.

THIS YEAR they had 6 of their wins against opponents with winning records (Atl, Det, Den, Chi, NYG, NO). They're 6-0 vs quality teams (100%). San Diego might make it over .500 yet.

LAST YEAR they had 7 wins against quality opponents (philly x 2, NYG, NYJ, Atl, Pitt, Chi x 2), with 3 of those coming in the playoffs. They were 4-3 in the regular season vs quality games.

SO FAR this year (b/c these stats can change with 4 games to go), they have already faced more of the top passing offenses, QBS, and receivers and they have almost as many quality wins.

The other thing that jumps out at me is that teams just didn't have to pass as much last year because the games were closer, GB "was bad against the run", and the offense went through weeks of stagnation so the opponents were able to dictate more of the game. Game plans this year seem to revolve around slingin' the rock, and being physical on GB's receivers (since TB at least). Green Bay's offense dictates the flow of the game. The other team has no choice but to go balls out or go home.

[mraynrand]

interesting post. I wonder what the effect of ST has been. Did you happen to look at that as well?

[superfan]

Excellent post. These kind of comparisons are tricky - the defense has had to face many top QBs, but the poor pass defense has also played a role in why these QBs are ranked in the top 10. Chicken or the egg.

Only two teams have faced more pass attempts than GB, and GB has faced the fewest number of rush attempts in the league, so certainly total yards allowed will be skewed based on those numbers.

The superstar QB theory has some validity as the 3 lowest passing yardage allowed games were vs. Ponder (twice) and Ryan. 3 highest passing yardage allowed games were vs Newton, Brees, and Rivers - all in the top 10. However, the D gave up 300+ yards to STL (Bradford) and TB (Freeman), who have each had only 2 300 yard passing games this year.

The two stats that stand out the most to me are net yards allowed per pass attempt and 3rd down percentage.

Net Yards/Attempt
2010 - 5.4, rank 3rd
2011 - 7.0, rank 28th

3rd down percentage
2010 - 36%, rank 9th
2011 - 44%, rank 29th

More attempts, more yards allowed per attempt, and not getting off the field on 3rd down. Not a good combination.

[HarveyWallbangers]

You going to get over for a game, superfan? :)

[denverYooper]

interesting post. I wonder what the effect of ST has been. Did you happen to look at that as well?

That's a good question. I didn't. Football outsiders has their ST 12th right now (26th last year) but as someone (PB?) mentioned that's probably due to Crosby having a better year on FGs and Cobb improving their return game by quite a bit.

Looking at ESPN Opponent Return Statistics page:

Just in terms of return yards, they're 21st this year @24.8 YPR. Last year they were 13th @21.8 YPR. I was slightly surprised by this because it seemed so much worse last year. Maybe it was that there were more long returns at bad times last year so those just stick out. But I don't think so.

I'm trying to find the starting field position numbers b/c I remember them kicking short more often last year. In fact, it seemed to be a regular strategy to cover up for their coverage last year.

They are last in punt return yards against with 14.9 this year, 25th in net @38.9, 16/41 inside of the 20. Last year they were tied for 24th with 11.0 yards per return, 18th in net @39.1 yards per punt, 25/71 inside of the 20. They're also on pace to punt 30 less times than last year so far, so a big return like Sproles's 72 yarder adds 1.7 yards to the average.

It'd be interesting to look at the starting field position of GB vs other teams. I would guess that has shifted in GB's favor because of Cobb, less squib kicking, and the offense being more effective.

[denverYooper]

Excellent post. These kind of comparisons are tricky - the defense has had to face many top QBs, but the poor pass defense has also played a role in why these QBs are ranked in the top 10. Chicken or the egg.

Only two teams have faced more pass attempts than GB, and GB has faced the fewest number of rush attempts in the league, so certainly total yards allowed will be skewed based on those numbers.

The superstar QB theory has some validity as the 3 lowest passing yardage allowed games were vs. Ponder (twice) and Ryan. 3 highest passing yardage allowed games were vs Newton, Brees, and Rivers - all in the top 10. However, the D gave up 300+ yards to STL (Bradford) and TB (Freeman), who have each had only 2 300 yard passing games this year.

The two stats that stand out the most to me are net yards allowed per pass attempt and 3rd down percentage.

Net Yards/Attempt
2010 - 5.4, rank 3rd
2011 - 7.0, rank 28th

3rd down percentage
2010 - 36%, rank 9th
2011 - 44%, rank 29th

More attempts, more yards allowed per attempt, and not getting off the field on 3rd down. Not a good combination.

I agree with you on the 3rd down problems. They've been terrible this year. I made a spreadsheet at one point with the opponent's 3rd down success vs. GB's 3rd downs against to see how the Packers were looking against the average 3rd down performance of teams they've faced. It wasn't pretty. I'll see if I can find it...

[sharpe1027]

A comparison between the opposing offense's average yards against other teams and what they did against the Packers might be a good metric. A comparison between this year and last year using this metric could go a long way to proving or disproving the theory. I'm too lazy to do it...anyone know if this is available somewhere on the Internet?

[Guiness]

Just curious, what are you basing your QB ranking on? Yards?

[Freak Out]

The two stats that stand out the most to me are net yards allowed per pass attempt and 3rd down percentage.

Net Yards/Attempt
2010 - 5.4, rank 3rd
2011 - 7.0, rank 28th

3rd down percentage
2010 - 36%, rank 9th
2011 - 44%, rank 29th

More attempts, more yards allowed per attempt, and not getting off the field on 3rd down. Not a good combination.

Ugly numbers....it's really going to be interesting to see how the offense rolls the next four games....three of which are in the often bitter fritter Lambeau. Oakland is a run first team and in shitty weather you would think could control the clock while GBs passing attack could be slowed down. Can the defense start to pick up the slack if needed?

[superfan]

You going to get over for a game, superfan? :)

We're running out of games - only 7 left. :) Maybe this Sunday? Send me an email.

[superfan]

Just curious, what are you basing your QB ranking on? Yards?

Too much stout on the brain? Pay attention Guiness. :)

From the second sentence of the first post in the thread:

"I'm doing this in terms of yards first, as that seems to be the main discussion involving this D. Note that I don't believe that is the best metric for describing pass performance, it's just the most often bandied about. If I have time, I'll look into other stats (YPA, rating)."

[vince]

Thanks for sharing that work. Better QB's and worse opponent field position has no doubt contributed some to the increase in yards given up, but big plays have been the biggest culprit. Still the team is undefeated vs. a 6-loss campaign a year ago. As you say, Defensive Passer Rating comparisons will be more telling in terms of the defense's real performance as it relates to winning or losing games. I believe the Packers are ranked 10th in DPR. Getting turnovers are seemingly less sustainable over time than not giving up yards, but the Packers consistently been the best at intercepting it for the last 3 years or so.

Likely QB's GB will face in the playoffs are all decent with only Brees and Manning IMO in the elite category this year - Romo, Stafford, Ryan, Smith and maybe Hanie are the others.

To the extent passing attacks will be affected by January weather in GB, I'd say Rodgers will have a decided advantage having played his last five games in outdoor winter weather and having the biggest hands and strongest arm of all of them. Winter football in GB will likely bring a bigger advantage to GB's defense, which makes teams pay for slight over/under throws more than anyone, than it will the oppositions'.

[denverYooper]

Last year they played Kolb, Vick, Trent Edwards, Shaun Hill, Jay Cutler, Donovan McNabb, Chad Henne, Favre, Sanchez, John Kitna, Matt Ryan, Troy Smith, Tom Brady, Drew Stanton, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisburger.

This year they've played Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Jay Cutler, Kyle Orton, Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford, Chrisitian Ponder, Phillip Rivers, Josh Freeman, Stafford, and Eli Manning.

Last year, they played a much worse slate of passers. Vick had a good year and was a handful for the Pack. The Pats put up 31. Big Ben played his typical screw up then play well game in the SB and managed to put up 25. They did play Eli both last year and this and Eli had a much better game this year. Eli is having a better year overall, too. They also played a lot of guys who got fired and/or retired and were arguably worse than Christian Ponder.

I don't think this year's pass defense is very good at all. In fact, I think it's pretty crappy. It's just interesting that they got a bit of a break on playing better QBs last year and it might have made them look better than I remember. I guess I'm starting to wonder if last year's defense was an aberration partly due to schedule because they struggled in 2009 against Big Ben, HWCBM, and Warner the year before that and there was much hand-wringing over their play against elite QBs. The difference this year seems to be that the Packers offense can outplay them and win those games.

[Joemailman]

Big plays are definitely the key here. Packers showed at Detroit that they can give up yards and still limit an offense if they don't give up the big plays. Given that, New Orleans and Dallas may be more to be feared than San Francisco. In terms of pass plays over 25 yards, Packers and Cowboys are tied for 1st, Saints are 4th, Giants are 9th and 49ers are 22nd. http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Passing&range=NFL&rank=118

[denverYooper]

Net Yards/Attempt
2010 - 5.4, rank 3rd
2011 - 7.0, rank 28th

3rd down percentage
2010 - 36%, rank 9th
2011 - 44%, rank 29th



I think Nick Collins's loss really shows up in those YPA numbers.

[denverYooper]

Opponent 3rd Down performance, YTD:



OPP MADE ATT PCT
NO 83 156 0.532
CAR 61 147 0.415
CHI 50 153 0.327
DEN 50 156 0.321
ATL 71 164 0.433
STL 48 170 0.282
MIN 64 162 0.395
SD 76 162 0.469
MIN 64 162 0.395
TB 57 160 0.35625
DET 47 155 0.303225806
NYG 57 153 0.37254902
TOT 728 1900 0.383157895


The average 3rd down success of all opponents is 38.3%. Green Bay's let up 43.9%.

I'd be curious to know how that breaks down situationally but on a gut level I know it's not great when 3rd and long becomes a point of angst.

[Guiness]

Too much stout on the brain? Pay attention Guiness. :)

From the second sentence of the first post in the thread:

"I'm doing this in terms of yards first, as that seems to be the main discussion involving this D. Note that I don't believe that is the best metric for describing pass performance, it's just the most often bandied about. If I have time, I'll look into other stats (YPA, rating)."

Stout? Not this time of year. Brick Bock, 'tis the season, you know!

Actually though, looks like that moronic brewery, which used to have a pretty good portfolio has trimmed that seasonal offering as well 8-(

[pbmax]

yoop, where did you get the 3rd down stats?

[smuggler]

denver, we are playing ahead all game. That's going to hurt your 3rd down average, because teams are passing more. True, they might throw 26 picks, but how many of those were on third down attempts? One in three is my guess.

What I mean to say is that our 3D defense is probably about league average.