#1 SEEDS-- WHICH IS MOST LIKELY TO FALL IN THE PLAYOFFS AND WHY ?

[Bretsky]

Curous about the views. Here is an interesting article by Brian Billick to ponder as well.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d825bb0e6/article/statistics-show-strengths-weaknesses-of-playoff-teams?module=HP11_hot_topics

As Mark Twain was fond of saying, "There are lies, damn lies, and statistics." People can use statistics to serve whatever argument they might want to support. Coaches are the first to dismiss statistics as irrelevant to the game. They often say that the only meaningful statistic is total points scored or surrendered.

Of course, coaches usually make such arguments in defense of poor statistical rankings in one form or another. The same coaches who scorn statistics when their teams are performing poorly will wear you out with talk of third-down conversions, yards per attempt and turnover differential when their teams are performing well in those areas.

The question is, which stats hold the most relevance when it comes to identifying good and bad teams? Everyone says that they want to run the ball and have a balanced offense. It would be logical to assume, then, that the teams with high rushing totals would also be among the most successful. Yet, only half of the top 10 rushing teams in the NFL made the playoffs this season (Denver, Houston, New Orleans, San Francisco and Baltimore), while the worst-ranked rushing team (the New York Giants) does not seem to have suffered from its poor ranking. Every coach in the game will tell you that you must be able to stop the run, yet only six of the top 10 rushing defenses made the playoffs (San Francisco, Baltimore, Houston, Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati).

Everyone wants to play good defense, but consider this stunning fact: The top seeds in the AFC (New England) and NFC (Green Bay) are ranked 31st and 32nd respectively in total defense. Everyone in today's game, me especially, says you have to be explosive offensively, yet four of the five most-explosive teams (measured in gains of 20 or more yards) missed the playoffs; only New Orleans (ranked fourth) advanced to the postseason.

Stats certainly don't tell the whole story, but they can still provide a basic indication as to what is needed to win in the NFL.

I have ranked each playoff team's performance in the 10 most important statistical categories (rushing offense, rushing defense, passing offense, passing defense, turnover differential, explosive-play differential, offensive third-down conversion rate, defensive third-down conversion rate, and offensive and defensive red-zone efficiency). As in golf, the team with the lowest score wins.

Playoff-team breakdown: 10 important categories
Team Off. rush Def. rush Off. pass Def. pass TO diff. Exp. play diff. 3rd-down off. 3rd-down def. RZ off. RZ def. Total
BAL 10 2 19 4 11 9 7 2 17 1 82
HOU 2 4 18 3 7 6 9 14 25 9 97
NO 6 12 1 30 21 4 1 5 6 28 114
PIT 14 8 10 1 28 1 4 19 18 17 120
ATL 17 6 8 20 6 11 6 29 13 8 124
DET 29 23 4 22 4 7 20 3 4 12 128
SF 8 1 29 16 1 12 31 11 30 4 143
GB 27 14 3 32 2 19 3 26 3 20 149
NE 20 17 2 31 3 27 5 28 2 21 156
NYG 32 19 5 29 8 16 14 17 8 22 170
CIN 19 10 20 9 17 15 18 13 26 25 172
DEN 1 22 31 18 27 20 30 6 23 15 193
According to this chart, the likely participants in this season's Super Bowl are the Baltimore Ravens and New Orleans Saints. Baltimore ranked highly in rushing offense (10th) and third-down conversions (seventh) and had superior rankings across the board defensively. New Orleans, as expected, dominated in so many offensive areas, particularly in the killer combo of explosive plays (fourth) and third-down conversions (fifth). The Saints do not rank in the top tier of very many defensive statistics, which just goes to show how truly dominant their offense is.

You might raise an eyebrow upon seeing No. 1 seeds Green Bay and New England ranked so low, at No. 8 and No. 9, respectively. Even though both are offensively dominant (like New Orleans), they have defensive vulnerabilities that can be hard to overcome. Most notably, Green Bay ranks 30th and New England 32nd in giving up explosive plays. Both teams have also been terrible at getting third-down stops (26th and 28th, respectively).

It is a shame that Houston is going through turmoil at the quarterback position. The Texans are a good team across the board, ranking particularly highly in offensive rushing (second), passing defense (third) and rushing defense (fourth). Unfortunately, they are also missing their starting and backup quarterbacks, which undermines their lofty ranking and their ability to parlay these statistics into playoff wins.

Again, understand that these rankings are calculated using baseline statistics that might determine the probability of success, but surely can't guarantee it. Football, especially in the NFL (and even more so in the playoffs), is all about matchups. How teams match up on the field has as much to do with their chances of winning as these statistics do, but they at least provide a starting point in forecasting postseason fortunes.

[Bretsky]

GB and NE really do have a lot of striking similarities

Both have explosing offenses with top tier QB's
Both have receiving weapons hard to defend....in NE their threats may be their two stud TE's
Both score a ton

Both have shitty defenses right now who are not good at their down stops

Without turnovers both of these defenses look brutal.

Needing a defensive stop late in the game may equal the end of their season

[King Friday]

I really don't like our chances this year...the defense is just awful at being able to get pressure on the QB, and our offense hasn't been the machine it was the first half of the season. The defense is going to have to force turnovers if we are going to repeat.

[Bretsky]

I was wondering if it was just me.......but it seems like we were peaking early to mid season and lately we're not as dominant. Perhaps it was just that our defense was better early on.

I'll be cheering HARD for Detroit this weak. The Saints really scare me. The Giants do as well.

[mraynrand]

I'll be cheering HARD for Detroit this weak. The Saints really scare me.

Why? If Detroit wins, it either means they are better than we think, or that NO is worse than we think. Even if Detroit gets scorched, so what? NO scorches people at home and struggles on the road. If Detroit beats NO, doesn't it make them tougher to beat? They know (at least they think) they can score on us at will and they will have just beaten NO on the road. I'd much rather have NO win and have to face the Niners.

[Joemailman]

Quote all the yardage statistics you want. The Packers are 15-1, a great accomplishment when everyone is gunning for you because you're the Champ. Bottom line is, the Packers know how to win. Opposing QB's have a 80.6 rating against the Packers, which is 9th best defensively. They just beat a playoff team without their starting quarterback, best receiver, best pass rusher, best cornerback, starting running back and and starting kick returner. Name me another team that could have done that.

[Bretsky]

Why? If Detroit wins, it either means they are better than we think, or that NO is worse than we think. Even if Detroit gets scorched, so what? NO scorches people at home and struggles on the road. If Detroit beats NO, doesn't it make them tougher to beat? They know (at least they think) they can score on us at will and they will have just beaten NO on the road. I'd much rather have NO win and have to face the Niners.

I feel the Saints matchup very well with us and I just think we're flat out better than Detroit and won't lose to them so I'm hoping Detroit pulls a game out of their ass and wins. I think NO beats the Niners.

[Bretsky]

Quote all the yardage statistics you want. The Packers are 15-1, a great accomplishment when everyone is gunning for you because you're the Champ. Bottom line is, the Packers know how to win. Opposing QB's have a 80.6 rating against the Packers, which is 9th best defensively. They just beat a playoff team without their starting quarterback, best receiver, best pass rusher, best cornerback, starting running back and and starting kick returner. Name me another team that could have done that.

Stop being a thread detractor........lol

so are you saying GB will not lose and the answer is undoubtedly the Pats ?

[Bretsky]

I can't figure out why the Pats have been starting so terribly lately. If they go down 17 or 21 to the Ravens or Steelers there will be no comeback. And with Hoody letting most of his secondary go, their DB's are just horrible and he keeps trying WR's back there. Hmmmmm.......perhaps we have a WR who could replace da Bush ?

[Tarlam!]

I really don't like our chances this year...the defense is just awful at being able to get pressure on the QB, and our offense hasn't been the machine it was the first half of the season. The defense is going to have to force turnovers if we are going to repeat.

I agree with your overall bleak outlook, I think the defense will be the culprit. Since TT has been picking OTs in the first, we haven't seen a CMIII or B.J Raji added nor has anyone(Mike Neal? ROLB?) stepped up and it's catching up to them now. Having Collins on IR doesn't help the secondary, but he's the only defensive IR casualty.

I completely disagree with your assessment of the offense. 16 TDs in the last 3 games speaks volumes. Only the KC game was bad. The next fewest points they scored were 24 against the Rams' 3, 25 against the Birds in weeks 5 & 6.

[Joemailman]

I'm not impressed with the AFC right now. I think New England will win it unless Flacco shakes his Playoff Blues. Steelers are banged up. Houston doesn't have its quarterback. Denver can't pass. Cincinnati has a rookie at QB. If a #1 seed is to fall, I think it will be New England. They've lost their opening playoff game the last 2 years.

[Tarlam!]

I feel the Saints matchup very well with us and I just think we're flat out better than Detroit and won't lose to them so I'm hoping Detroit pulls a game out of their ass and wins. I think NO beats the Niners.

Beating any team 3 times is difficult. Remeber the Vikings.

[Bretsky]

I'm not impressed with the AFC right now. I think New England will win it unless Flacco shakes his Playoff Blues. Steelers are banged up. Houston doesn't have its quarterback. Denver can't pass. Cincinnati has a rookie at QB. If a #1 seed is to fall, I think it will be New England. They've lost their opening playoff game the last 2 years.

Agree...the AFC playoff teams appear weak. Not many of those teams would scare me against GB that much. Lately NE has really shown their weaknesses. If the Saints were in the AFC Green Bay would face them in the Super Bowl IMO

[Lurker64]

I'm not impressed with the AFC right now. I think New England will win it unless Flacco shakes his Playoff Blues. Steelers are banged up. Houston doesn't have its quarterback. Denver can't pass. Cincinnati has a rookie at QB. If a #1 seed is to fall, I think it will be New England. They've lost their opening playoff game the last 2 years.

New England has the unenviable position of (barring a Cincinnati upset of Houston) facing the Steelers in their first game. Of all the teams that the Patriots match up poorly against, the Steelers are right up there (I also think the Packers match up poorly this year with the Steelers.)

[Tarlam!]

I think Cinci does upset Housten. I know they played poorly recently, but Housten isn't legit IMO.

[Lurker64]

I think Cinci does upset Housten. I know they played poorly recently, but Housten isn't legit IMO.

Cincinnati is 0-7 against teams that finished the season with a winning record. I think they're less legit than Houston.

[Tarlam!]

Cincinnati is 0-7 against teams that finished the season with a winning record. I think they're less legit than Houston.

True, but Yates?

[Gunakor]

I really don't like our chances this year...the defense is just awful at being able to get pressure on the QB, and our offense hasn't been the machine it was the first half of the season. The defense is going to have to force turnovers if we are going to repeat.


Our offensive machine just put up a pretty crooked number on a divisional opponent playing a playoff game this weekend. They did so without the services of the top 2 offensive players on the roster. As a counterpoint to your assertion that our offensive machine hasn't been performing up to snuff, the majority opinion at this time is that Matt Flynn enjoyed the success he did on Sunday specifically because of the well oiled machine that is the offense he was directing that afternoon. I don't completely buy that argument as stated, because it downplays the talent and production that Flynn has to offer, but it does have a bit of merit. The most potent offense in the NFL is the one Flynn directed on Sunday, the same offense Rodgers led for 16 weeks prior.

As to your other point, for all of the questions and concerns about our defense, nobody can force turnovers like our group can. If winning the turnover battle is enough to put us in favorable situations then I love our chances against anybody in the league.

[Gunakor]

I'll be cheering HARD for Detroit this weak. The Saints really scare me. The Giants do as well.


You know which team scares me the most? San Fransisco. The Niners have the 3 things needed to beat us. They have an outstanding running back. They have an outstanding tight end. And they have an outstanding defense. No other team in the NFC bracket has all three of those things. So I'm rooting for the team that can go into San Fransisco next week and beat those guys. I'm rooting for New Orleans.

[Gunakor]

I think NO beats the Niners.

Exactly.

[Bretsky]

You know which team scares me the most? San Fransisco. The Niners have the 3 things needed to beat us. They have an outstanding running back. They have an outstanding tight end. And they have an outstanding defense. No other team in the NFC bracket has all three of those things. So I'm rooting for the team that can go into San Fransisco next week and beat those guys. I'm rooting for New Orleans.


Gore IMO has been very ordinary this year. Either he's banged up or getting old but I would not put him in the outstanding group.

[Gunakor]

Gore IMO has been very ordinary this year. Either he's banged up or getting old but I would not put him in the outstanding group.

I don't know about that. 6th in the NFL in rushing at 4.3 per clip is nothing to sneeze at. Alex Smith was efficient and careful with the football, but Gore and that running game was what carried that offense yet again this season.

1200 yards is exceptional in my book. I argued the same thing when Ryan Grant was putting up 1200 yard seasons and people said that was ordinary. If it was ordinary, it wouldn't rank in the top 10 in the NFL year after year.

[Bretsky]

I don't know about that. 6th in the NFL in rushing at 4.3 per clip is nothing to sneeze at. Alex Smith was efficient and careful with the football, but Gore and that running game was what carried that offense yet again this season.

That is a pretty good OL
I wonder what Kendall Hunter averaged; to me he looks every bit as good as Gore.

[Gunakor]

It all plays a part in it. When I say exceptional back, I guess what I mean is exceptional running attack featuring a back putting up 1200 yards at 4+ per clip while carrying an offense. You're right, that is a pretty good OL and Gore's #'s certainly aren't suffering because of it. But my point remains. Those guys can run the ball.

[Patler]

These are what he considers "the 10 most important statistical categories":
rushing offense
rushing defense
passing offense
passing defense
turnover differential
explosive-play differential
offensive third-down conversion rate
defensive third-down conversion rate
offensive red-zone efficiency
defensive red-zone efficiency

Does anyone else find it peculiar that stats such as points scored and scoring differential are not among the 10 most important statistics?
How about points scored on defense and defensive points allowed on offense?
How about red-zone touchdown to field goal ratio on offense and defense?
How about percentage of possessions resulting in touchdowns on offense and defense, and percentage of possessions resulting in scores on both offense and defense?

I suspect that the list will look a lot different if the statistical categories deemed to be "the most important" are actually ones that relate to the score.

[Bretsky]

These are what he considers "the 10 most important statistical categories":
rushing offense
rushing defense
passing offense
passing defense
turnover differential
explosive-play differential
offensive third-down conversion rate
defensive third-down conversion rate
offensive red-zone efficiency
defensive red-zone efficiency

Does anyone else find it peculiar that stats such as points scored and scoring differential are not among the 10 most important statistics?
How about points scored on defense and defensive points allowed on offense?
How about red-zone touchdown to field goal ratio on offense and defense?
How about percentage of possessions resulting in touchdowns on offense and defense, and percentage of possessions resulting in scores on both offense and defense?

I suspect that the list will look a lot different if the statistical categories deemed to be "the most important" are actually ones that relate to the score.


Now that sounds like a great project for you :) j/k

[mraynrand]

Does anyone else find it peculiar that stats such as points scored and scoring differential are not among the 10 most important statistics...etc.

yes. It was weird what he picked. Almost as though he were trying to find a way to make he Ravens look better than they are. It's a QB-driven league and the Best QBs are not in Baltimore and San Fran or Houston.

The Stats don't tell you what changes when teams get down by several TDs.

[jdrats]

GB and NE really do have a lot of striking similarities

Both have explosing offenses with top tier QB's
Both have receiving weapons hard to defend....in NE their threats may be their two stud TE's
Both score a ton

Both have shitty defenses right now who are not good at their down stops

Without turnovers both of these defenses look brutal.

Needing a defensive stop late in the game may equal the end of their season

Yeah, I'd sure hate to see GB needing a goal-line stop against NO late in the game to preserve a win. Oh, wait, nevermind...

[pbmax]

Team Roff Rdef Poff Pdef TOdiff ExpDif 3rdO 3rdD RZoff RZdef Total
BAL 10 2 19 4 11 9 7 2 17 1 82
HOU 2 4 18 3 7 6 9 14 25 9 97
NO 6 12 1 30 21 4 1 5 6 28 114
PIT 14 8 10 1 28 1 4 19 18 17 120
ATL 17 6 8 20 6 11 6 29 13 8 124
DET 29 23 4 22 4 7 20 3 4 12 128
SF 8 1 29 16 1 12 31 11 30 4 143
GB 27 14 3 32 2 19 3 26 3 20 149
NE 20 17 2 31 3 27 5 28 2 21 156
NYG 32 19 5 29 8 16 14 17 8 22 170
CIN 19 10 20 9 17 15 18 13 26 25 172
DEN 1 22 31 18 27 20 30 6 23 15 193

[pbmax]

Quote all the yardage statistics you want. The Packers are 15-1, a great accomplishment when everyone is gunning for you because you're the Champ. Bottom line is, the Packers know how to win. Opposing QB's have a 80.6 rating against the Packers, which is 9th best defensively. They just beat a playoff team without their starting quarterback, best receiver, best pass rusher, best cornerback, starting running back and and starting kick returner. Name me another team that could have done that.

The total yardage stats make the list questionable. While it is not what it was last year, the Packers pass defense is not 32nd in the League. Much work as been done to point out the flaws of this stat, but the NFL simply doesn't listen when it ranks teams.

[pbmax]

San Fran has all the ingredients, except talent. Weak division, weak schedule and an offense that turns red zone drives into FGs. Against an elite offense they will have no answer except to pray their defense turns them over.

Steelers without Mendenhall look less intimidating and Ben R and Pouncey are banged up. Their O line is more patchwork than the Packers was when Sherrod went out in KC.

In the AFC its the Ravens or Pats, though if the Steelers can get to the Ravens in the CG its a tossup.

In the NFC its the Saints and Giants to worry about, but I am less worried about the Saints on the road.

I see a more direct path to the Super Bowl this year than last. But given my record at prognostication, that might be a poor indicator.

[Guiness]

These are what he considers "the 10 most important statistical categories":



He pretty much acknowledges the arbitrariness of the 'list' by prefacing the article with "Lies, damn lies and statistics".

[Patler]

He pretty much acknowledges the arbitrariness of the 'list' by prefacing the article with "Lies, damn lies and statistics".

Acknowledging it doesn't make it any less dumb. In the end, the only thing that matters is the score. Of the categories he chose to rely on. the last two are the only ones that involve scoring; and I believe even those do not differentiate between touchdowns and field goals.

[Upnorth]

Acknowledging it doesn't make it any less dumb. In the end, the only thing that matters is the score. Of the categories he chose to rely on. the last two are the only ones that involve scoring; and I believe even those do not differentiate between touchdowns and field goals.

How you get to that score does matter though. Yards has an impact, but not as large as he is making it. A tired defence tends to make more mistakes. I agree he the stats he picks have less of an influanece on the score than those you point out, but they still have an influance. Long story short our D gives up to many points but gets th ball back in our O's hands quite often to win the game.

That being said my dream senario for the NFC playoffs is det over no, atl over nyg. Then gb over det, atl over sf. Then GB over atl and finally GB over den (revenge finally!). This is my dream, not what I expect.

[Patler]

How you get to that score does matter though. Yards has an impact, but not as large as he is making it. A tired defence tends to make more mistakes. I agree he the stats he picks have less of an influanece on the score than those you point out, but they still have an influance. Long story short our D gives up to many points but gets th ball back in our O's hands quite often to win the game.

That being said my dream senario for the NFC playoffs is det over no, atl over nyg. Then gb over det, atl over sf. Then GB over atl and finally GB over den (revenge finally!). This is my dream, not what I expect.

As far as that goes, I can't think of a single stat for which you can't draw some connection to scoring. Punts, punt returns, kick offs and kick returns all impact where drives are started and therefore impact scoring. I don't care which he included on his list, its the exclusion of the ones most directly related to game outcome (scoring, and scoring allowed) that make his analysis questionable in my mind.

[Lurker64]

As far as that goes, I can't think of a single stat for which you can't draw some connection to scoring.

Solo tackles (alternatively "assists"). It doesn't really matter how many people tackle the ballcarrier, provided he is tackled.

[Pugger]

Why? If Detroit wins, it either means they are better than we think, or that NO is worse than we think. Even if Detroit gets scorched, so what? NO scorches people at home and struggles on the road. If Detroit beats NO, doesn't it make them tougher to beat? They know (at least they think) they can score on us at will and they will have just beaten NO on the road. I'd much rather have NO win and have to face the Niners.

The Saints' pass defense is nearly as bad as ours and NE and they are not as dominate on the road. If Detroit doesn't self destruct they can go in there and give Brees and company a run for their money.

[Patler]

Solo tackles (alternatively "assists"). It doesn't really matter how many people tackle the ballcarrier, provided he is tackled.

:bow: (I won't argue about whether that is even a team stat.)

[Pugger]

New England has the unenviable position of (barring a Cincinnati upset of Houston) facing the Steelers in their first game. Of all the teams that the Patriots match up poorly against, the Steelers are right up there (I also think the Packers match up poorly this year with the Steelers.)

The Steelers with a hobbling Big Ben and without Mendenhall shouldn't put any fear in our hearts.

[RashanGary]

McCarthy was aksed about the defense a couple weeks ago. He said the loss of Nick Collins has really gone under the radar for how significant it was.

Collins, Tramon and Shields all played a simple game. The corners could man up and run. Collins could cover ground like no other so the window QB's had to fit a deep ball in was tiny, even when we played one safety high. It was our calling card defense.

With probably the fastest threesome of secondary players in the NFL (and surely the fastest 3 who were really good at taking away the deep ball with no help), we were wide open to let Woodson roam. We were also wide open to send jet rushes on 1st, 2nd or 3rd down, with an extra box defender taking care of the open gap.

Just my opinion here, but Collins is the best tackler I've ever seen. And he's brilliant at sifting through traffic, bending off would-be blocks and just finding a way to make plays happen. Similar to Bishop, but a superstar athlete to boot. It's a little thing, but he's a star runner too. Once he had the ball, it was like Ahman Green running. Tough, agile, fast, explosive, vision. . . . .

For as great as Collins was, he was even greater for this team. He'll go down as one of my favorite Packers of all time, even if he never plays another down.

I have this thing I like to call 12 man defense. When 3 guys can take away the deep ball, you're playing with 12 man defense and you can do all sorts of unpredictable shit off of that hang-your-hat base defense. The 12 man defense I see right now is the New York Giants. Osi is back and looks good. Osi, Tuck and Pierre Paul are all as good as Clay Matthews IMO. When you have three guys who can rush the passer like that, you can play all sorts of fun defense behind them. Shit, you can rush three and be far more likely than not to disrupt the QB or force an error.

The Giants scare the shit out of me. The bright side is, they play ATL ( a horrible matchup for them on the road) and if it comes here, it could be a bad weather game. In that situation, maybe having a fresh mudder like Grant (hasn't taken a beating all year and is starting to get his game shape back), a really healthy group of big guys (OL and DL both) and some home field noise. . . . . . It's rare, but shit, I'd almost rather play the Giants on a shit weather day. Osi and Tuck are better than they were in 2007. Strahan is gone, but enter in Pierre Paul. . . . . In a shootout, in a passing game, boy, I saw that Giant team eat Brady alive. It's the only game I've ever watched where Brady looked flustered. His eyes were big. He looked scared, frustrated. . . . . AR, as careful as he is, he does have the advantage over Brady in that he can run (and those DE's getting up field would give him the chance), but that team is ready to rock. To me, they're right with the Packers and Saints as front runners. The best DL I ever saw is a tie. This years healthy Giants and the 2007 Giants. They are fruckin scary. And Manning is way underrated to me. He's a better player now than in 07.

I've never lost an online bet. I just cashed out a couple hundred from some bets on last years SB. I have $50 left on there. Fuck, I might make a pyramid bet on the Giants.

[Pugger]

I think we should all light novena candles and pray Collins can come back in 2012.

[smuggler]

I don't care. On the one hand (DET wins) we certainly play Detroit, which I'd rather not.

On the other hand, NO stays alive, and we might end up playing them later on. I'd REALLY rather not.

[Pugger]

McCarthy was aksed about the defense a couple weeks ago. He said the loss of Nick Collins has really gone under the radar for how significant it was.

Collins, Tramon and Shields all played a simple game. The corners could man up and run. Collins could cover ground like no other so the window QB's had to fit a deep ball in was tiny, even when we played one safety high. It was our calling card defense.

With probably the fastest threesome of secondary players in the NFL (and surely the fastest 3 who were really good at taking away the deep ball with no help), we were wide open to let Woodson roam. We were also wide open to send jet rushes on 1st, 2nd or 3rd down, with an extra box defender taking care of the open gap.

Just my opinion here, but Collins is the best tackler I've ever seen. And he's brilliant at sifting through traffic, bending off would-be blocks and just finding a way to make plays happen. Similar to Bishop, but a superstar athlete to boot. It's a little thing, but he's a star runner too. Once he had the ball, it was like Ahman Green running. Tough, agile, fast, explosive, vision. . . . .

For as great as Collins was, he was even greater for this team. He'll go down as one of my favorite Packers of all time, even if he never plays another down.

I have this thing I like to call 12 man defense. When 3 guys can take away the deep ball, you're playing with 12 man defense and you can do all sorts of unpredictable shit off of that hang-your-hat base defense. The 12 man defense I see right now is the New York Giants. Osi is back and looks good. Osi, Tuck and Pierre Paul are all as good as Clay Matthews IMO. When you have three guys who can rush the passer like that, you can play all sorts of fun defense behind them. Shit, you can rush three and be far more likely than not to disrupt the QB or force an error.

The Giants scare the shit out of me. The bright side is, they play ATL ( a horrible matchup for them on the road) and if it comes here, it could be a bad weather game. In that situation, maybe having a fresh mudder like Grant (hasn't taken a beating all year and is starting to get his game shape back), a really healthy group of big guys (OL and DL both) and some home field noise. . . . . . It's rare, but shit, I'd almost rather play the Giants on a shit weather day. Osi and Tuck are better than they were in 2007. Strahan is gone, but enter in Pierre Paul. . . . . In a shootout, in a passing game, boy, I saw that Giant team eat Brady alive. It's the only game I've ever watched where Brady looked flustered. His eyes were big. He looked scared, frustrated. . . . . AR, as careful as he is, he does have the advantage over Brady in that he can run (and those DE's getting up field would give him the chance), but that team is ready to rock. To me, they're right with the Packers and Saints as front runners. The best DL I ever saw is a tie. This years healthy Giants and the 2007 Giants. They are fruckin scary. And Manning is way underrated to me. He's a better player now than in 07.

I've never lost an online bet. I just cashed out a couple hundred from some bets on last years SB. I have $50 left on there. Fuck, I might make a pyramid bet on the Giants.

I think Cliffy can handle Pierre Paul better than Newhouse did.

[woodbuck27]

Why? If Detroit wins, it either means they are better than we think, or that NO is worse than we think. Even if Detroit gets scorched, so what? NO scorches people at home and struggles on the road. If Detroit beats NO, doesn't it make them tougher to beat? They know (at least they think) they can score on us at will and they will have just beaten NO on the road. I'd much rather have NO win and have to face the Niners.

So your saying that you want the Saints to defeat the Lions which is likely the pick. The Saints then travel to Lambeau and we get past them in 'a best case scenario' shootout, as we would then most likely win the TO battle!

On the other side the 49ers run the table. Eventually San Fran comes to Lambeau and we get it together Vs them and advance to the Super Bowl.

mmmm .....I'll just go with 'the MJ Ziggy Factor'.

She'll pick Green Bay to win the NFC 'somehow'; and then 'of course' win the Super Bowl. I respect the 'MJ Ziggy Factor'. She trumps all NFL Experts...most NFL fans...and well.... she's seldom wrong this season.

Conclusion... IMO and observation. THIS THREAD IS MOOT inspite of the industrious efforts by the esteemed member that founded it. Thank goodness that MJ Ziggy is a Packer fan and that fact is pertinent and extremely fortunate for us.

Just sit back and drink your beer and eat your Nachos confidently. The Green Bay Packers will repeat.

That's 'the inside'..... GO PACK GO!

[Smidgeon]

Collins is also known to take bad angles at times. I wouldn't call him the greatest tackler though. He's sufficient.

[Scott Campbell]

I really don't like our chances this year...the defense is just awful at being able to get pressure on the QB, and our offense hasn't been the machine it was the first half of the season. The defense is going to have to force turnovers if we are going to repeat.



Agreed. We haven't looked as good as we did down the stretch and in the playoffs last year since the game before Tampa this year. My hope is that we are getting a lot healthier, and start playing better football in the playoffs because of it.

[Smidgeon]

Our chances are better than they were last year when the Pack squeaked into the playoffs with significant outside help...

[sharpe1027]

How many yards were given up in the blowout games where the entire fourth quarter is a joke and starters are pulled with significant time left? How many yards were given up on drives that only yielded a field goal or turnover? Why are yards important, unless they lead to points?

http://twominutewarning.com/guestcap4.htm

"It would seem reasonable that a team that gains the most yards would also score the most points, all things being equal. Likewise, the team gaining the fewest yards would be expected to score the fewest points. But, of course, all things are not equal. And there is rarely, if ever, a direct correlation between yards gained and points scored, or yards allowed and points allowed, for more than just a handful of teams."

[Tarlam!]

I think we should all light novena candles and pray Collins can come back in 2012.

THIS!!!

[Freak Out]

The Packer D is going to step it up the playoffs. Rodgers, M3, Capers and the gang have this thing figured out. I don't care who comes to GB in the next couple of weeks they will not beat Rodgers and the Packers. This isn't about stats now...it's about Talent, heart and will.

[Tarlam!]

The Packer D is going to step it up the playoffs. Rodgers, M3, Capers and the gang have this thing figured out. I don't care who comes to GB in the next couple of weeks they will not beat Rodgers and the Packers. This isn't about stats now...it's about Talent, heart and will.

Anyone going into Lambeau will bring their A+ game with them. If the Packers reach the Show, I think they go in as heavy favourites, because they really excel in domes. They need to get there first and I predict it won't be as easy as some might think

[gbgary]

#1 SEEDS-- WHICH IS MOST LIKELY TO FALL IN THE PLAYOFFS AND WHY ?

either one could go down but i think ne will go down first. it's about what defenses can do to brady, and/or rodgers, that will determine things. both are masters in the air but it's rodgers' legs that separate the two. i think the defenses in the afc are better than what's left in the nfc also. brady will have the tougher road to travel.

[ThunderDan]

The Packers, as defending Super Bowl Champs, have taken everyones best shot this year. Teams get up to play the Super Bowl winners. We have beaten every team in the NFC field except SF, who we didn't play.

I like our chances a lot better than any other team in the NFC or AFC. Apparently, Vegas agrees will me. Of course that being said anything can and does happen. The Packers are just better equiped to deal with it.

[Tarlam!]

Apparently, Vegas agrees will me.

I take heart in this, it is very encouraging.

[denverYooper]

Quote all the yardage statistics you want. The Packers are 15-1, a great accomplishment when everyone is gunning for you because you're the Champ. Bottom line is, the Packers know how to win. Opposing QB's have a 80.6 rating against the Packers, which is 9th best defensively. They just beat a playoff team without their starting quarterback, best receiver, best pass rusher, best cornerback, starting running back and and starting kick returner. Name me another team that could have done that.

This. Most of those rankings are yards. I won't argue that the D hasn't disappointed but they're better than this assessment indicates.

[denverYooper]

The total yardage stats make the list questionable. While it is not what it was last year, the Packers pass defense is not 32nd in the League. Much work as been done to point out the flaws of this stat, but the NFL simply doesn't listen when it ranks teams.

I think they know but are choosing to play up the yardage stat to make a better story for the playoffs. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that they had an intern dig up a set of metrics that would support an alternate ranking of teams.

[Upnorth]

Our pass defence gives up a lot of yards, but we also faced a lot of good passers. Brees, Newton, Stafford twice Rivers and Manning.
6 of our games were against elite qbs responsible for a disproportionate amount of yards. We were 6-0. We had 16 picks. I am less concerned when I think of it this way.

[KalamazooPackerFan]

Collins is also known to take bad angles at times. I wouldn't call him the greatest tackler though. He's sufficient.

The poor angles he takes are really the weakest part of his game. On pass plays his speed allows himto recover but he's missed a fair number of tackles taking the bad angle on a RB or WR inthe open field.

[gbgary]

Our pass defence gives up a lot of yards, but we also faced a lot of good passers. Brees, Newton, Stafford twice Rivers and Manning.
6 of our games were against elite qbs responsible for a disproportionate amount of yards. We were 6-0. We had 16 picks. I am less concerned when I think of it this way.

that is a good way to think about it.

[ThunderDan]

Here's a theory that I know is total crap but I'm going to fire it out:

Dom Capers after seeing the Packers put up 42, 30, 27 and 49 points in the first 4 weeks of the season shut his D down. He knew playing average vanilla D the rest of the way would be fine because of our offensive firepower. Now that the postseason is going to start he is going to unleash his D again. Look for some 38-10 games in the next few weeks ahead.

[MJZiggy]

What total crap. But entertaining nonetheless.

[Tarlam!]

What total crap. But entertaining nonetheless.

Hahaha.

I like his glass-half-full attitude, though.

[Joemailman]

Here's a theory that I know is total crap but I'm going to fire it out:

Dom Capers after seeing the Packers put up 42, 30, 27 and 49 points in the first 4 weeks of the season shut his D down. He knew playing average vanilla D the rest of the way would be fine because of our offensive firepower. Now that the postseason is going to start he is going to unleash his D again. Look for some 38-10 games in the next few weeks ahead.

http://lmliberty.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/green-kool-aidman.jpg

[Smidgeon]

The poor angles he takes are really the weakest part of his game. On pass plays his speed allows himto recover but he's missed a fair number of tackles taking the bad angle on a RB or WR inthe open field.

Don't get me wrong. With Reed and Polomalu constantly battling injuries, Collins could be legitimately ranked anywhere from the best safety in the league to the fourth best. I just also see areas in his game that need work. But the team misses him dreadfully this year.

[Pugger]

Will we know before the draft whether or not Collins can ever come back?

[pbmax]

Will we know before the draft whether or not Collins can ever come back?

6 months after surgery was the target date to know. Not sure the exact date of surgery, but mid-September would get you to mid-March, after FA starts but before the draft.

[Bretsky]

Bump for old times sake. Well we have our answer.
A lot of posters...rightfully so.....feared the Giants
I hope Justin made his pyramid bet on the Giants
And Zigster found out it wasn't a bunch of crap

An interesting thread to sift through