Official Wild Card Weekend Games Thread

[pbmax]

What the heck? I think I am 0-1 for Game Day Threads. Best to put me to use where I can do no harm

Conventional Wisdom from Advanced Statistics:
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012/01/postseason-projections-wild-card-round.html

From the discussion, this looks like a model of past behavior, so there is a strong tendency for homefield advantage and by weeks to pay off. For the Super Bowl, the Packers (20%) have the best chance followed by New England (16%), Pittsburgh and Houston (14% each). I think he is overrating Houston's odds and I like Baltimore (8%) more than his model does.

They predict Pittsburgh (to the tune of 81%) to be the only Wild Card team to advance over a Division winner. Cincinnati is given the least chance (22%) while the Suhs (32%) and the Falcons (35%) are given a roughly 1 in 3 chance. I think the Lions have a real shot in N'awlins.


Football Diagrams
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/45889625/ns/sports-nfl/

A breakdown of the Sunday's matchups by team and the best short example of why the Cowboy could not beat the Giants. Mike Tanier is always a good read, and has a nice chalkboard play diagram for each team.


AFC Preview
http://footballoutsiders.com/game-previews/2012/afc-wild-card-preview

Boiled down to its basics? The AFC West is the new NFC West, the Bengals had to play the actual NFC West to make the playoffs, Andy Dalton or not. Four team race with Houston having a giant question mark at QB and Pittsburgh starting to play better as Rothliesberger gets more banged up. Since this is Football Outsiders, there are considerably more numbers here than I have mentioned to back them up.

NFC Preview
http://footballoutsiders.com/game-previews/2012/nfc-wild-card-preview

Takeaways: Look for Lions TEs eating up the short middle of the field versus the Saints (while also remembering that there are 3 D starters back for this game compared to Week 13). Blitz Brees no matter what Gregg Easterbrook will write next Tuesday, you think the Falcons love to run the ball and they do on first down but they are surprisingly terrible at it and the Falcons defense might be better than their offense and the Giants will need to throw on it to beat it.

[mraynrand]

I like the Giants passing offense against the Falcons' secondary. That's a huge mismatch.

[pbmax]

I though the same thing but FO has the Falcons 3rd against the run and 10th against the pass. Weird. And it will be interesting to watch.

[pbmax]

Going to be a fun offseason in Denver. Broncos prepared to yank Tebow if things go south in Wild Card game versus the Steelers.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/07/broncos-are-prepared-to-yank-tebow-if-he-struggles-against-steelers/

[MJZiggy]

What the heck? I think I am 0-1 for Game Day Threads. Best to put me to use where I can do no harm

You know you've probably killed my week in Pick 'Em, right...which, coincidentally IS NOT OVER UNTIL THE SUPER BOWL! Just saying.

[pbmax]

Read This, Be Smarter:

Can you win without a quarterback OR can you repeat the Ravens experience of 2000?

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7429732/chris-brown-gary-kubiak-houston-texans-running-game

[gbgary]

I like the Giants passing offense against the Falcons' secondary. That's a huge mismatch.

same could be said going the other way. i think turner will make a difference for atl.

[pbmax]

OK, I like Mike Mayock but he is the one who is nervous with 3 errors in 3 drives.

1. First missed throw by Texans on 3rd down. Johnson had a high throw but he was alone and it was eminently catchable. Mayock blamed QB. No one as threatening to clock WR after drag route across short middle.

2. Bengal missed pass on 3rd down was tipped and while he said it should have been caught, it was a harder catch than #1 after a tip.

3. Rey Maualuga blew his coverage in the middle by running across formation rather than drop into coverage to allow easy throw in middle of field. Mayock called out other linebacker.

[pbmax]

If that was Jay Gruden, he might need an eye exam.

[pbmax]

I was going to write the Bengals were holding up OK, but then that drive it all fell apart.

I am not impressed with Rey Maualuga so far.

[pbmax]

Worst commercial on TV ever. Bad move Toyota.

[Guiness]

Worst commercial on TV ever. Bad move Toyota.

Which one was that?

[pbmax]

Donald Lee with a nice play. And a fumble?

[pbmax]

Which one was that?

Berman, Kelly Clarkson, Andrew Zimmern and James Lipton

[Guiness]

Berman, Kelly Clarkson, Andrew Zimmern and James Lipton

google brought me to one of them all getting into a car and signing along with the radio - that one?

Agreed. WTH?

[pbmax]

That's a catch. And all Wisconsin pro players should go with Owen's version of his school in his self-introduction:

"Owen Daniels: On Wisconsin"

[pbmax]

google brought me to one of them all getting into a car and signing along with the radio - that one?

Agreed. WTH?

That's it.

I do like Raji repeating his Chicago Bear TD dance for State Farm and his QB. :)

[pbmax]

Pac Man Jones and Bengals NT and Rucker are the only thing working against this run game.

[pbmax]

JJ Watt Pick Six!

[gbgary]

veeery nice play! watt too tired to jump. :)

[MJZiggy]

Kid's having a great game.

[pbmax]

Lewis has pulled a Tomin and the Schwatrz by blowing all his challenges early.

[pbmax]

Kid's having a great game.

Rose Bowl revenge.

[gbgary]

the texan d is night and day, black and white, cold and hot, different than it was a year ago numbers wise. wish/hope we can do that sometime soon.

[denverYooper]

JJ Watt Pick Six!

I just got home in time to see that one.

[Tarlam!]

What the heck? I think I am 0-1 for Game Day Threads. Best to put me to use where I can do no harm.

Well played young man! Thanks for the effort.

I hope mission is resting on his bye week weekend. No partying with his babe wife. Tuning into the Lions@NO game just in case there's an upset.

[denverYooper]

Probably shouldn't celebrate that interception buckshot.

[pbmax]

After a good start, Bengals are getting overwhelmed.

[gbgary]

hou has this.

[denverYooper]

Ex-Bear Manning on the INT.

[gbgary]

does anyone in the nfc have a d?

[MJZiggy]

Not really...

[Tarlam!]

Lions are not going to be intimidated by NO. 7-0

[yooperfan]

What's a defense?????

[MJZiggy]

As long as no one has one, it's all good...

[pbmax]

Lions also have a running game that is subpar to the Packers.

Tulloch caused fumble and Levy wrapped Colston up. On Wisconsin.

[Tarlam!]

NO gets a stop. How cool is that?

[Tarlam!]

Brees is special. He looks so comfortable in the pocket. And, the Saints have legitimate RBs.

[MJZiggy]

You go little guy!! Lions have no answer for that running game.

[Tarlam!]

Lions not going away. 14-7

[Joemailman]

You can't cover Johnson. You just have to hurry Stafford enough to affect his accuracy.

[pbmax]

Fumble!

What was Brees waiting for? He sits in that pocket like Rodgers on a bad day.

[pbmax]

Gonna need a bigger lead to hold off Saints second half adjustments.

[pbmax]

NBC still hasn't found a relay that shows whether that was a fumble or incompletion.

Almost a wasted TO. But kept Saints off board and was a better field position win.

[Fosco33]

Wow - refs really fucked that one up. Clear fumble - hold your stupid whistle. Lions recover and dude was on his way for a TD.

If Lions don't get one here... I'd be a pissed off fan.

[Fosco33]

Remember that missed TD... could mean difference between playing Lions and not.

[pbmax]

And a dumb Lion penalty.

[pbmax]

Watching this Lions defense is like watching the Packers D in 2009. Dumb penalty fest.

[pbmax]

That is coming back and then they will take another penalty from the Lions.

[pittstang5]

TD Catch...or not a TD catch. here we go!

If I have the rules right, which seem to change every week....this is NOT a TD

[pbmax]

Eric Wright didn't touch it it was the linebacker.

[yooperfan]

Lions playing pretty good, got screwed and should be 21-10

[Brando19]

Oh man...I don't know who to cheer for. I want the Saints gone, but the Lions could be dangerous in Lambeau.

[pbmax]

Saints just rared back, ignored the TE and threw deep.

[mmmdk]

Lions playing pretty good, got screwed and should be 21-10

I'd prefer Lions over G-men, Falcons and Saints (later).

[pbmax]

There was a hold or hand to the head there.

[pbmax]

Am I nuts or was that not a first down? The first down marker is not the goal line. You can't just crease it to have a first.

[MJZiggy]

Am I nuts or was that not a first down? The first down marker is not the goal line. You can't just crease it to have a first.
It was quite a generous spot.

[Upnorth]

I think pb is right. Also earlier in drive they were given a first down they were at least a half yàrd short on. Finally if no wins and I was the sf coach I would send in tape of the two holds by their 9:14:25 PM on this drive. The one was huge.

[gbgary]

our toughest games are always against teams in our own division. i wouldn't really mind seeing no win this.

[Upnorth]

By the way I ment lt not 9:14:25 pm. Blackberry auto fills time when I put l and t next to each other.

[yooperfan]

Living in MI I would just hate to have to worry about losing to the Lions.....

[pbmax]

I think his left knee might have hit a fraction of a second earlier than the ball hit the pylon, but its tough to see when the ball ticked the pylon until it REALLY creased.

[pbmax]

The Lions are playing a dramatically static D in this second half.

[pbmax]

Brees moved Durant out of the way with his eyes on that play. He drifted outside and the throw and Colston went inside.

[mmmdk]

Packers pass rush would be no match for the Saints OL...and they run block too; you'd better pray Lions wins this one! I believe Saints will win tonight though.

[pbmax]

Packers pass rush would be no match for the Saints OL...and they run block too; you'd better pray Lions wins this one! I believe Saints will win tonight though.

And yet I thought the only loss was to the Chiefs?

Durant blew a tackle for a loss by falling down.

[Upnorth]

Fun game to watch though

[Joemailman]

Omce again the Lions pay for not coming up with the INT.

[Guiness]

just going to turn on the end of the game - looks like it's going to be a good finish, 24-21 for NO right now

[Pugger]

The loins screwed up by not taking advantage of those 2 turnovers in the first half. If they had they scored after those gifts this game would be very different. The Saints' offense is impressive but their D isn't any better than ours.

[mmmdk]

And yet I thought the only loss was to the Chiefs?

Durant blew a tackle for a loss by falling down.

Chiefs? Regular season records? What are you talking about?

I just would prefer Packers to face Lions next week and potentially not the Saints in a NFC Champ game!

[mmmdk]

Woodson would've loved to face Staff next week; not to be! :lol:

INT

[pbmax]

Chiefs? Regular season records? What are you talking about?

I just would prefer Packers to face Lions next week and potentially not the Saints in a NFC Champ game!

I know, but the Saints are not insurmountable as your post made it seem. O Line wise, anyway. :)

Stafford threw up an ill advised short duck. Never should have thrown it if he couldn't step into it.

[pbmax]

Not Suh, that was Corey Williams Al. He has become a very good DT.

[MJZiggy]

There's your dagger.

[pbmax]

Blown coverage.

[mmmdk]

I know, but the Saints are not insurmountable as your post made it seem. O Line wise, anyway. :)

Stafford threw up an ill advised short duck. Never should have thrown it if he couldn't step into it.

Ok, got your point! :tup:

[mmmdk]

There's your dagger.

More like a Scottish claymore slashing the Lions secondary to pieces. :lol:

[Joemailman]

Is it just me, or was Suh much more disruptive last year?

[mmmdk]

BTW, a Scottish claymore is a nasty two-handed sword!

[pbmax]

Is it just me, or was Suh much more disruptive last year?

Perhaps but as long as the Saints keep a Guard on him, they are good enough to tie him up. The Tackle he keeps getting on pulls he has been destroying.

[pbmax]

YOTTO shout out.

[pbmax]

Jason Hanson is no Mason Crosby.

On an onside kick anyway :)

[MJZiggy]

Is it just me, or was Suh much more disruptive last year?

He was more disruptive until they made him start playing within the rules.

[MJZiggy]

Schwartz looks like he's going to cry.

[HarveyWallbangers]

How many interceptions did the Lions drop? At least 4. Maybe 5 or 6.

[King Friday]

I think the Saints might struggle a bit in SF. They play A+ ball in their dome, but sometimes falter on the road. SF has a defense that will challenge them all day...and they will have the crowd making it hard for the Saints to hear.

[digitaldean]

Lions blew some chances by not getting points off turnovers tonight. Just like the Bungles vs. Texans. The Cincy DB had a great shot at a pick 6 and would've turned the momentum in the game.

Watt made the big play and look what happened.

Lions look pretty good in the first half. Saints running game helped them out a ton in the 2nd half. They got just enough help in the running game to take pressure off Brees. O-line kept him pretty well protected.

BTW, how does AJ Smith STILL have a GM job in San Diego after letting Sproles go?! That guy is a dynamo with the football.

[Pugger]

Someone on another forum noticed a lot of offensive holding by NO that wasn't called last night. If this game is replayed on the NFL Network this week I'm gonna look for that.

[Upnorth]

One the second drive of the second half there was two big holds by the left tackle. On that drive NO was given a first down they were short off on a 4th down conversion. There looked to be some home field advantage going on.
We would have less of a pass rush, but would get at least one pick. I think we win that game, please pass the koolaid.

[pbmax]

How many interceptions did the Lions drop? At least 4. Maybe 5 or 6.

I remember 2 that could have been pick 6, but am not sure of the total.l. Lets hope Jarret Bush spent some time with the Jugs gun during fundamental week.

[pbmax]

The Flacons center miht not want to fall down when the Guard leaves him since the center had Canty handled.

[pbmax]

Neither team looks too formidable so far.

[pbmax]

Roddy White with a back shoulder catch from his knees. Nice route into the middle by Julio Jones before that to get the field position back in their favor.

[pbmax]

I dunno about that call.

[Iron Mike]

Is it just me, or was Suh much more disruptive last year?

Ndamukong Who?? :)

[pbmax]

Matt Ryan bails on more good pockets than any other vet I have watched this season. His clock goes off and he moves out.

[Freak Out]

WTF is wrong with Mike Smith?

[packers11]

That was a sloppy first half... if they were to play like that next week vs the packers, the game would be over at halftime

[Freak Out]

Matt Ryan bails on more good pockets than any other vet I have watched this season. His clock goes off and he moves out.

No doubt. Gun shy......

[packers11]

WTF is wrong with Mike Smith?
That clock management was horrific.... I was yelling at the tv... what is he doing?

[Joemailman]

WTF is wrong with Mike Smith?

Maybe he thinks he gets to carry those timeouts over to the 2nd half.

[Freak Out]

Three time outs left with what....45 seconds left? Hey Mike.....it's the playoffs.

[packers11]

Three time outs left with what....45 seconds left? Hey Mike.....it's the playoffs.
Maybe he's playing scared because of what happened last year right before half lol

[Freak Out]

Why do you run Ryan when you have Turner in the backfield? Everyone saw that Ryan was going sneak. Smith should be fired for this game. :)

[pbmax]

That sneak was a bad idea the first time...

[pbmax]

The Falcon's center is playing terribly

[Freak Out]

The Giants look strong.

[pbmax]

I think they just successfully blocked Abraham with the TE on that TD pass to Manningham

[pbmax]

The Giants look strong.

They played like death warmed over in the first half.

[Joemailman]

Good thing the Falcons mortgaged their future for Julio Jones. 'Cause you know, they were just one player away.

[Freak Out]

Lol.

[pbmax]

Hey, Will Blackmon!

[gbgary]

looks like it's those nyg. we knew it would be.


btw...terry bradshaw needs to raise his chair. lol

[easy cheesy]

btw...terry bradshaw needs to raise his chair. lol

...and Joe Buck needs to stand on a phone book or get better lifts in his shoes. Everytime he bats his eyes at Troy I feel the video feed should switch to slow motion and Donny Osmond's "Puppy Love" needs to start playing in the background. :)

[Guiness]

Anyone watching the late game?

Tebow - Winning!

[pittstang5]

Tebow looks like ass then makes a great throw....so night and day with him.

[easy cheesy]

Anyone watching the late game?

Tebow - Winning!

You bet your ass! I love, love, LOVE watching the Steelers take a dump.... thus far anyway. Sooooooo many people talked soooooooooooo much smack leading up to this game. What a treat it would be to watch Ben and Co. hit the road Jack! Even MORE amusing would be if the Broncos took out the Patriots... HAHAHAHAA! Anyway... it's fun to imagine! Probably won't happen, but, man, it is fun to imagine all of the "WAH WAH'S" that could be heard 'round the world. If only this game could have ended after the first half... lolz!

[easy cheesy]

Like I said... If only this game had ended after the first half.... :)

[Freak Out]

Tebow playing his best game as a Pro....still holds the ball to damn long sometimes.

[easy cheesy]

Like I said... If only this game had ended after the first half.... :)

What she said....:) Oy Vey!!!

[Pugger]

Good thing the Falcons mortgaged their future for Julio Jones. 'Cause you know, they were just one player away.

No shit. Jones is a nice player but Atlanta needs a QB ;-) and defensive help.

[Freak Out]

Wow....the fumble and now the dropped INT.

[Freak Out]

Tebow time coming up. :)

[easy cheesy]

Wow....the fumble and now the dropped INT.

Right? I mean, I never expected them to do shit in this game anyway. But... after all they HAVE done, don't let it end like this. Still, day ain't over yet.....

[MJZiggy]

Did I miss anything?

[Freak Out]

Been a good game....Tebow has played a nice game and Big Ben has gutted another game out.

[easy cheesy]

Tebow time coming up. :)

I'm hoping! ***clinking glasses***

[Brandon494]

Lets go Steelers! Not trying to hear the Tebow coverage ALL week.

[easy cheesy]

Classic... just classic.... ok... these MOFO's may win.... but they sure as HELL didn't light the world on fire and the Broncos perfomed much better than anyone EVER gave them a chance in hell of doing... nice job guys! (yes... I am waiving the white flag a tad early... but... c'mon....)

[Freak Out]

Non sudden death. Crazy.

[easy cheesy]

NICE! OT! Boy, the critics and naysayers and "Know it alls" didn't see this one coming.....

[easy cheesy]

Non sudden death. Crazy.


These new rules make my head spin quicker than Regan's in the Exorcist.... let's just get it ON already!

[Tarlam!]

NICE! OT! Boy, the critics and naysayers and "Know it alls" didn't see this one coming.....

I did.


You're All Individuals! Yes, we're all individuals!!!! I'm not.

AND DENVER WINS!!!!!!

[easy cheesy]

HAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHHAHA!!!! Hell Fuckin' YEAH!!!!

[easy cheesy]

I did.



AND DENVER WINS!!!!!!


High Fivin' and Huggin' and givin' big ol' kissy smacks to Tar!!!! HELLLLL YEAH!!!!!

[Tarlam!]

I have to believe both NE and BAL are delight to have the Steelers out of the tournament.

[easy cheesy]

YAY!!!!!!! I'M GONNA SAY IT..... WAH WAH!!!!! WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!! It would be sooooooo stellar to beat those shit bag Patriots too! (and they said it couldn't be done! You just KNOW that Brady is thinking he has this next match up in the bag...hmmmmmmm....) :)

[MJZiggy]

I'm not sure whether Baltimore is happy to see them out because they were afraid of them or because they just hate them that absolutely. It's like us watching the Bears fail. It's all good either way (except for those who wanted the Ravens to knock the Steelers out themselves.

[Freak Out]

Crazy.....no safety and a missed tackle.

[Tarlam!]

Geez, Cheesy, if you get this excited for a team not named the Packers, you must be a riot in a bedroom!

[KYPack]

Rough week for Wild Cards.

They're all gone now.

[digitaldean]

Wow, bad weekend for the refs. The Lions-Saints game inadvertent whistle stopped what could have been a game changing fumble return for a TD.

The blown call on the Pitt lateral vs. Denver could have been huge also.

Amazing that Tebow had only 10 completions but had 300 yds passing. He made the plays when he had to. Not a big Tebow fan, but got to give him his props.

Sad to hear Houston's Owen Daniels may be out w/broken hand. But it's ironic that Dalton's pick 6 was by JJ Watt. It was the play of the playoffs until Tebow threw the TD in OT.

[easy cheesy]

oops

[easy cheesy]

Geez, Cheesy, if you get this excited for a team not named the Packers, you must be a riot in a bedroom!

I've been laughed at a time or two.... :)