USA TODAY "If Defense wins Championships, Pack could be in Trouble"

[Bretsky]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/packers/story/2012-01-10/packers-need-big-boost-from-defense/52504028/1


another article to share and lace into :)

[Joemailman]

The Packers have shown all year that they can give up yards but keep points allowed at a reasonable level if they limit the big plays. In 10 of their 16 games, the Packers have given up 23 points or less. Only in the loss to KC did they fail to score that many. There have actually been only 4 games this year where the Packers needed to score more than 30 points to win. The New Orleans game was the only one in which the Packers defense was as healthy as it is now. The one game the Packers lost was the one game is which their offense was held under 20, and their defense produced no turnovers. If the Giants can produce those 2 things they will win. The odds would appeat to be against it though.

[Pugger]

If defenses win championships then NE and NO are in trouble too.

[Fritz]

The problem is that the playoffs are different. Defenses shut down big-time offenses. Remember New England's nearly-undefeated season? The Jints stopped Brady and Company.

I'm concerned about the Packer defense. Greatly. It's harder to manufacture points in the playoffs than it is during the regular season.

[denverYooper]

Pittsburgh's great D didn't help them from getting TBWNED

[Fritz]

But your argument suggests that a good defense doesn't matter - but to win a SB you've got to have offense and defense.

[Joemailman]

But your argument suggests that a good defense doesn't matter - but to win a SB you've got to have offense and defense.

A lot depends on how you judge the Packers defense:

Yardage: 32nd
Points Allowed: 19th.
Passer rating allowed: 9th
Turnovers caused: 1st

[sharpe1027]

The problem is that the playoffs are different. Defenses shut down big-time offenses. Remember New England's nearly-undefeated season? The Jints stopped Brady and Company.

I'm concerned about the Packer defense. Greatly. It's harder to manufacture points in the playoffs than it is during the regular season.

Offense's also light up big-time defenses.

[Freak Out]

It's not the damn Steel Curtain but it should suffice. Guys are healthy and determined to prove the doubters wrong. Plus the Dom has been saving the best for last.

[denverYooper]

Top 10 scoring Ds:



1 Pittsburgh 4348 271.8 2751 171.9 1597 99.8 227 14.2
2 San Francisco 4930 308.1 3694 230.9 1236 77.3 229 14.3
3 Baltimore 4622 288.9 3140 196.3 1482 92.6 266 16.6
4 Houston 4571 285.7 3035 189.7 1536 96.0 278 17.4
5 Cleveland 5318 332.4 2959 184.9 2359 147.4 307 19.2
6 Miami 5522 345.1 3992 249.5 1530 95.6 313 19.6
7 Seattle 5315 332.2 3518 219.9 1797 112.3 315 19.7
8 Tennessee 5682 355.1 3629 226.8 2053 128.3 317 19.8
9 Cincinnati 5060 316.3 3385 211.6 1675 104.7 323 20.2
10 Philadelphia 5198 324.9 3397 212.3 1801 112.6 328 20.5


I think defensive statistics are a bit harder to sort out this year. The AFC West played the NFC West and the AFC South this year. The Texans seem to be the only team out of that group with anything of note on offense, and that was before Schaub went down. Ben's been hurt and bad, Manning's been out, Dalton's good but very green, etc

The AFC South did play the NFC South this year and the magical Texans with that super-stud D gave up 40 points to NO and 28 to CAR and went 2-2 against a pretty good div. Green Bay only gave up 34 and 23 to those teams and was 4-0 against the same division.

I'm not saying that Green Bay's defense is as good because I don't believe that, but I think this year's "great" defenses have mostly benefited from weaker opponents. The one team that might qualify as a truly great D is San Fransisco and Saturday will be telling there.

[swede]

A lot depends on how you judge the Packers defense:

Yardage: 32nd
Points Allowed: 19th.
Passer rating allowed: 9th
Turnovers caused: 1st

No wonder fans are like a dysfunctional family this year...

Mom: It would be a minor miracle if someone in this family would pick up their socks. The Packers D-line will get a sack on a 3 man front before that happens.

Son: Hey! I picked up my socks last week and the D backs NEVER get any credit for leading the league in interceptions. All we hear about is "blown coverage" this and "miscommunication" that!

Dad: Don't you dare talk to your mother like that! And if we weren't last in the league in yardage I'd...

Sister: You'd what? Raise my allowance? I'm getting an A+ in chemistry and it's no big deal, but let the Packers be average in points allowed and it's "Oh my God...They're so awesome!" I'm sick of all of you! (pound pound pound pound pound SLAM!)

pause

Dad: (mutters) We are 15 and 1 for crying out loud.

[Freak Out]

LOL. Damn funny teacher.

[King Friday]

I disagree with the notion that defense wins championships in today's game. BIG PLAYS win games. The teams that makes the big plays at the crucial moments in the game will probably win it all. That was true of Green Bay last year...the Saints the year before that...the Giants before that.

The Packers have plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball. If they win another title, it will be due to great plays from those guys as well as a couple of lesser known guys stepping up once in awhile as well.

[MJZiggy]

Funny, I always thought it was outscoring your opponents that won championships. Damn. I guess I was wrong.

[gbgary]

A lot depends on how you judge the Packers defense:

Yardage: 32nd
Points Allowed: 19th.
Passer rating allowed: 9th
Turnovers caused: 1st

that's a lot more telling than the yards.

GO PACK!!

[Bretsky]

this year will be a nice test
The answer is 1964
What is the question ???








When is the last time the 32nd rated defense won a NFL Championship

Source: NFL Network

Hopefully we'll be the new answer to that trivia question

[pbmax]

Everyone has already forgotten the Saints and Colts Super Bowl wins with less than stellar D play. This is not exactly a new trend.

[smuggler]

The top scoring defenses in the NFC are better than the top scoring defenses in the AFC, because the NFC is a noticeably stronger conference.

[Harlan Huckleby]

The problem is that the playoffs are different. Defenses shut down big-time offenses. Remember New England's nearly-undefeated season? The Jints stopped Brady and Company.
What you say has always been true, I just wonder if a corner has been turned. This season has been the full flowering of the pass happy NFL, where the running backs dress in seperate locker rooms with the practice squad guys, and QBs are inspected after games for bruises. Lets see what happens this weekend.

[swede]

What you say has always been true, I just wonder if a corner has been turned. This season has been the full flowering of the pass happy NFL, where the running backs dress in seperate locker rooms with the practice squad guys, and QBs are inspected after games for bruises.

Brush up that resume, Ziggy, your dream job awaits.

[Fritz]

I would put it this way:

You sometimes see defenses shutting down great offenses in the playoffs - see the Giants championship against the Pats.

It's harder for a great offense to score points in the playoffs than it is for a great defense to shut down an offense, even a great one.

[MJZiggy]

Brush up that resume, Ziggy, your dream job awaits.I always knew there would be a role for me in the NFL someday!!

[Tarlam!]

It's harder for a great offense to score points in the playoffs than it is for a great defense to shut down an offense, even a great one.

What do you put this down to, Fritz?

[swede]

I would put it this way:

You sometimes see defenses shutting down great offenses in the playoffs - see the Giants championship against the Pats.

It's harder for a great offense to score points in the playoffs than it is for a great defense to shut down an offense, even a great one.


Well I can think of a number of great offenses and very few great defenses, so the great offenses are in luck that way.

[Tarlam!]

Well I can think of a number of great offenses and very few great defenses, so the great offenses are in luck that way.

It is for this very reason that I am looking forward to the Saints-49ers game. The 49ers defense has been highly touted this season, so we shall see what we shall see!

[denverYooper]

From the FO NFC Preview: (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/game-previews/2012/nfc-divisional-round-preview)



When this divisional round game was set after New Orleans defeated Detroit last Saturday, the first thought that crossed my mind was, "What does DVOA history say about playoff matchups between an elite offense and an elite defense?" I didn't think this happened all that often, but when I searched our database, I found a whopping 85 playoff games since 1992 with a top-eight offense going against a top-eight defense. In those games, the elite offense went 45-40. Of course, New Orleans will be on the road this Saturday, so what about that subset of games? The elite offense went 15-21 on the road. Now, better teams according to DVOA usually end up having a divisional round home game, so that record might just be a statistical artifact of home field advantage. So what about the subset of games where the elite offense is on the road but is actually the better team overall? In those 15 games, the elite offense went 8-7. All of this suggests that, in playoff matchups between immovable objects and irresistible forces, neither side has a historical advantage.

[Fritz]

Oh.

Never mind.

[MadtownPacker]

I think we can all rest assured now. Fritz gots his ball-less nutsack wound up all the way into his intestines so that means the Packers are gonna dominate those NY bitches!

[Fritz]

Taking one for the team.

[MJZiggy]

Taking one for the team.
I can help you get it fixed after the game if need be...

[pbmax]

The problem is that the playoffs are different. Defenses shut down big-time offenses. Remember New England's nearly-undefeated season? The Jints stopped Brady and Company.

I'm concerned about the Packer defense. Greatly. It's harder to manufacture points in the playoffs than it is during the regular season.

The playoffs are different because the teams are better, not because there is a fundamental advantage to the defense. Even the two week advantage before the Super Bowl is lessened because of the media and league demands of the teams the week prior to the game make it difficult to prepare more than normal in the extra week.

Defense doesn't win championships, defense wins Pulitzers. Point differential wins games and championships.

Super Bowl Defenses

Year Team Pts Yds PtDfRk PtDif
2010 Packers 2 5 2 148
2009 Saints 20 25 1 169
2008 Steelers 1 1 5 124
2007 Giants 17 7 13 22
2006 Colts 23 21 9 67
2005 Steelers 3 4 5 131
2004 Patriots 2 9 1 177
2003 Patriots 1 7 6 110
2002 Buccaneers 1 1 2 150
2001 Patriots 6 24 7 99
2000 Ravens 1 2 2 168
1999 Rams 4 6 1 284
1998 Broncos 8 11 2 192

The outlier: Giants were going nowhere until the offense caught fire. Matchups play a role too.

The Packers this year?

2011 Packers 19 32 2 201

The Packers most resemble the 2009 Saints and that is not a bad thing.

[Harlan Huckleby]

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/packers-defense-had-better-step-up-763p0vp-137361578.html

McGinn describes defense as horrible.

[Pugger]

It is a major mystery why this group of defenders has all these problems. The personnel hasn't changed except for 2 starters nor has the coaching. What is up, really? Here is my take.

Jenkins could have helped the pass rush but because besides Raji and Pickett our D line is full of below average guys that are really more suited as backups who can't shed a block to save their souls. Nobody besides CM3 is playing worth a damn at LBer except for Bishop at times but he's missed a few games and Walden has been horrid, especially lately. Losing Collins was big because he could cover up the screw-ups in the secondary. It didn't help to have the slow footed Peprah, a one handed kid who was still basically a rookie and a corner with a bum shoulder try to cover folks running wild while the opposing QBs had all day to throw. With all of this going on is it any wonder why we yielded yards at an alarming rate? If it wasn't for turnovers and the offense playing out of its mind we wouldn't be in the playoffs, let alone the #1 seed.

[pbmax]

The problem with all theories is that they all have holes. Walden was not horrid until the domestic abuse deal. His contain wasn't fantastic but he wasn't getting abused and his pass rush really had picked up in midseason. He might have been the third best player on defense at the 3/4 pole. But then all heck broke loose.

[esoxx]

For this game, I would take a page out of the Broncos mindset of the late 90's. They had a dominating offense and a subpar defense. They brought the house from all angles and basically forced the issue. The Packers defense has demonstrated they are going to hemorrhage yardage at frightening levels. Instead of a slow bleed, I want to see them fire blitz and bring the heat. Yes, big plays will occur but so will punishment to Eli and we may even get a sack or two out of it. Big plays will also occur on defense with this mindset.
Worse thing that can happen is the game turns in to a high scoring shootout. Fine with me since Rodgers > Manning.
Bottom line: Punish Manning for the yardage he's going to get instead of letting him sit back with no concern of duress.

[denverYooper]

I just want to see Bishop get home up the middle once, like when he popped Brady at the start of the NE game last year.

[esoxx]

Again I ask. Why not bring the house? Manning is sitting back there way too comfortable, Packers can't tackle on the back end anyhow. Bring the fucking heat and at least make him pay a price for his completions.

[Bretsky]

just back from watcing this hellhole unfold; have to agree with Esoxx. What was to lose ? Let's call a spade a spade. McGinn was right; this was a horrible defense. Rated 32nd in passing yards and 30th in sacks.

The above phrase rang kind of true this weekend. The two powerhouse offenses in the NFC went down hard.

[mraynrand]

Again I ask. Why not bring the house? Manning is sitting back there way too comfortable, Packers can't tackle on the back end anyhow. Bring the fucking heat and at least make him pay a price for his completions.

That did happen a couple of times

[Bretsky]

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-playoffs/09000d5d826184b0/Dominant-defenses

[pbmax]

just back from watcing this hellhole unfold; have to agree with Esoxx. What was to lose ? Let's call a spade a spade. McGinn was right; this was a horrible defense. Rated 32nd in passing yards and 30th in sacks.

The above phrase rang kind of true this weekend. The two powerhouse offenses in the NFC went down hard.

McGinn was also predicting Pack to the Super Bowl on Peter King's podcast and other outlets. So his butt was covered.