Official "WTF TT?" draft picks theory and speculation thread

[Lurker64]

Early on in Ted Thompson's tenure as general manager of the Green Bay Packers, he made a number of picks that were contrary to the prevailing sentiment about how the team would be best served, which lead to a combination of head scratching and acrimony among Packer fans. At the time it was hard to see spending the highest pick on Aaron Rodgers, Justin Harrell, and Jordy Nelson as keeping with the popular consensus on the Packers' needs, but in retrospect 2/3 of those picks were actually very savvy moves on the part of Ted.

So in the interest of both harmony and "having something different to talk about" I thought I would start a thread to speculate on how Ted could use his picks in ways that are surprising or befuddling.

The prevailing wisdom is that the Packers would spend their premium picks on defensive linemen and outside linebackers (because the pass rush was bad), cornerbacks and safeties (because the coverage was poor and Nick Collins's future is in doubt), or maybe a center (depending on what happens in Free Agency). What could else could the Packers do that would surprise us.

I would suggest a format of describing the scenario, why it's a crazy idea, and subsequently why it may not be such a crazy idea. I'll post a few of my own to start.

So does anybody have any crazy theories of something the Packers could do in the first three or so rounds that would aggravate, confuse, befuddle, or otherwise just fail to make obvious sense?

[Lurker64]

The Scenario: First round running back.

Why this is crazy: The Packers are a passing team. The Packers are a very good passing team. The Packers may be among the best passing teams in the NFL. The Packers may be among the best passing teams in NFL history. Why would you want to take the ball out of Aaron Rodgers' hands? The running back simply isn't important in the NFL these days. It's unclear how much this would help the Packers since "scoring points" wasn't really their problem last year. Guys like Green, Saine, and Starks seem to be "good enough" RBs in this offense.

Why this is less crazy than you might think:Mike McCarthy said from day 1 that he wants to run the ball. The Packers have struggled to run the ball under McCarthy all but one year, and noticeably struggled to do anything on offense in their two losses last year because the running game was so impotent. This year at the combine, McCarthy has said that he's going to "change the way that he runs the ball" and while this most obviously refers to play calling and blocking schemes, he could be talking about making use of a different kind or calibre of running back. Alex Green's availability next year is in question any way, due to an ACL being a 1 year-and-change sort of injury. So if the scouts are high on someone like Boise State's Doug Martin, Miami's Lamar Miller, or Virginia Tech's David Wilson it wouldn't be wholly surprising to see Thompson pull the trigger in the first round. This would probably help the offense score more points, kick start the offense when it's struggling, and also help the Packers salt away games late by killing clock. It's clear that all of these things would help, though I would hate it if the Packers did this (but one of the reasons for this thread is to go through the logic of picks like this so that we hate them less in case they happen.) So maybe TT figures we're a Marshall Faulk short of being the greatest show on grass.

[Lurker64]

The Scenario: Day 2 wide receiver

Why this is crazy: Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and Randall Cobb present as young and talented a quartet as WRs as you find in the league. Add to the fact that Finley looks to be sticking around, and the question of "will there be balls to go around" arises. It's not like the passing offense really needs to improve significantly from last year.

Why this is less crazy than you might think: Scouting second and third round WRs is probably the thing that Ted does best. In fact, Ted has selected a WR in the second or third round every year that Ted made a pick in either the second or third round (the exception was 2010 where the Packers had two firsts and then no picks until the fourth). Since we scout WRs well, and there's no such thing as having too many great players at a position, it's possible that a player of such tremendous value might be available that all questions of "need" simply disappear. My dark horse for this would be Appalachian State wide receiver Brian Quick. Thompson has been tied to scouting him extensively in the past, and he is an impressive prospect at 6'3 1/2", 34 1/4 inch arms, 9 3/4" hands who runs a 4.5 and is a former basketball player and high jumper. This is a mold of WR we don't really have, and he's a developmental type prospect who may drop due to the extreme depth of the WR position this year and the fact that he's a small school prospect without great production against top CBs. He could conceivably be ready to burst onto the scene at about the time that James Jones' contract would expire, and Thompson may have concerns about the cost of resigning Greg Jennings.

[Lurker64]

The Scenario: First Round Offensive Tackle.

Why this is crazy: Ted Thompson has drafted an offensive tackle in each of the last two first rounds, Bryan Bulaga and Derek Sherrod are promising young players with significant potential, and offensive line play was actually a strength of this team. No first round tackles that really fit the athletic profile Ted looks for in offensive linemen seem likely to be around (Matt Kalil's not lasting to pick 28.)

Why this is less crazy than you might think.: Derek Sherrod's broken leg puts his 2012 season into doubt, and the team may not feel comfortable with Bulaga and Newhouse as the bookends, as Newhouse really didn't play very well last year. Sherrod's entire future in the NFL may be in doubt, and "keeping Aaron Rodgers upright" is more important than "not letting the #32 pick in the 2011 draft go to waste" anyway. While athletic enough tackles don't project to be available, the only times Ted has really broken from his mold were when a guy fell to him (notable examples Bryan Bulaga and Jamon Meredith). Lower tier first round offensive tackles like Ohio State's Mike Adams (on the back of a poor combine) or Stanford's Jonathan Martin (on the back of no combine, and strength/aggressiveness questions) could plausibly still be available at pick #32. Ted could pull the trigger. In this scenario, I think Adams would project to the right side and Bulaga would swap to the left, whereas Martin would be a left tackle and the right side would be intact.

[Fritz]

The scenario: first round tight end.

Why this is crazy: The team just re-signed Jermichael Finley, and has DJ Williams, Ryan Taylor, and Tom Crabtree coming back, as well as Andrew Quarless recuperating from a severe injury. Most rats are guessing they'll pup Quarless and bring him back at week six. So that's four or five young tight ends. This is so not a position of need, or even of future need. If you wanted a tight end, you'd take one later - a developmental project.

Why this is less crazy than you might think: It's not. It's just fucking crazy.

[Lurker64]

Why this is less crazy than you might think: It's not. It's just fucking crazy.

But the Tight End is the future of the NFL offense, just look at the Patriots with Gronkowski and Hernandez. Also Tom Crabtree, as much as I enjoy his twitter antics, is not a special player and can easily be improved on by a guy who is a better blocker and a guy who is actually a threat to catch a pass. But yeah, this is stretching it.

[pbmax]

The scenario: first round tight end.

Why this is crazy: The team just re-signed Jermichael Finley, and has DJ Williams, Ryan Taylor, and Tom Crabtree coming back, as well as Andrew Quarless recuperating from a severe injury. Most rats are guessing they'll pup Quarless and bring him back at week six. So that's four or five young tight ends. This is so not a position of need, or even of future need. If you wanted a tight end, you'd take one later - a developmental project.

Why this is less crazy than you might think: It's not. It's just fucking crazy.

1st Round TE pick? Crazy.

6 TEs on roster in 2012 from mid round pick in '12 draft? Mortal Lock.

[Lurker64]

I'm trying to come up with a "TT takes a first round ILB" scenario that's more substantive than "Hawk sucks, let's get rid of him."

[smuggler]

I look for Thompson and McCarthy to try and carry 5 safeties into opening day next year, and strip down to only two TEs

[Fritz]

I was just having some fun, Lurk. I guess the real surprise-but-it's-not-so-crazy would be a left tackle in round one.

Or a nose tackle - which I could heartily defend.

[Smidgeon]

I think the WR scenario actually makes a lot of sense.

[pbmax]

The scenario: First Round CB *

Why this is crazy: Most CB discussion about secondary trouble has focused on lack of offseason work for Shields and Williams injury. The assumption is that a healthy Williams and a properly prepared Shields will handle the outside better in '12 and let Wood be Wood. Add in a healthy safety option better than Peprah and another year wiser Burnett, the CBs would seem at most to be the fourth most likely position to be snagged early.

Why this is less crazy than you might think: Wolfian principles state that you cannot fail to have prime physical talent at QB, DE/OLB, CB and LT. So it meets the organizational philosophy. I don't think Wood would thrive as a safety but it could be that he is the short term answer on run downs (corner Oakie). That is going to increase the roster spots for CB by 1. Shields is still a project and he might not turn the corner. Williams might return to his previous level, but he is the only proven commodity even if he does. House is an unknown, no matter how much the team likes his chances. Lee and Bush as stopgaps at this point. Essentially, it is possible that Packers do not see a true 2nd wide CB on the roster.


* I know Lurk pegged this as the 3rd or 4th most likely scenario, but I feel confident if Ted went CB we would get a lot of Thompson ego threads

[pbmax]

I'm trying to come up with a "TT takes a first round ILB" scenario that's more substantive than "Hawk sucks, let's get rid of him."

The guy from Alabama inside has rushed the passer before. I could see the Packers grabbing a monster for inside and then blitzing him like Patton in a tank.

[pbmax]

I was just having some fun, Lurk. I guess the real surprise-but-it's-not-so-crazy would be a left tackle in round one.

Or a nose tackle - which I could heartily defend.

I would not be stunned at Left Tackle. If Clifton is a cap casualty (I am not yet buying it, but if) then the Packers would have Bulaga and Newhouse starting and be short on prime candidate at tackle. A lot depends on Sherrod's health.

[Lurker64]

Or a nose tackle - which I could heartily defend.

I've thought about Alameda Ta'amu a lot; he's a player I really like. I just can't see playing him and Raji at the same time, as you'd be sacrificing a ton of length on the DL. But he's definitely a BPA possibility.


The guy from Alabama inside has rushed the passer before. I could see the Packers grabbing a monster for inside and then blitzing him like Patton in a tank.

Hightower is a definite possibility, I just have a sneaking suspicion that a lot of scouts hate him. I think that since there's talk about whether he can play OLB, that people will assume the Packers picked him to play OLB no matter what they actually do with him (much like how people, to this day, think the Chiefs are playing Brandon Albert out of position at LT, since their initial impression was "guard.")


* I know Lurk pegged this as the 3rd or 4th most likely scenario, but I feel confident if Ted went CB we would get a lot of Thompson ego threads

I definitely agree that if we took a CB there would be a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth "nobody can cover long enough to make our pass rush effective" but I think there would be a lot of pushback here, since the CB scenario does make a lot of sense. Shields or House turning into a player is far from a given.

[ThunderDan]

I don't think this is crazy crazy but TT drafts Peter Konz C from Wisconsin.

Why is this crazy? The Packers had a top 2 O last year and a bottom 2 D. The Packers should be looking at DL, OLB and S.

Why this is less crazy than you think? TT drafts best player available and if Konz falls to our pick, unless one of the premium edge players also falls, I think TT can't pass up the value of finding the OL leader for the next 10 years. Konz has all of the tools to be a stud at the next level. Also, if Scott Wells decides to sign a 4 year $27M contract somewhere else we are going to need a center for 2012.

[smuggler]

16 reps on the bench. I don't want an OL that I can outbench.

[Upnorth]

The senario: trade up in second round, then trade back into second round using most of remaining picks.

Why this is crazy: well duh, TT trades down to accumulate not up, plus we need depth.

Why this isn't crazy: we have pretty good depth already, and TT has previously nailed on trade back into the 1st round in the pa(CMIII). There is supposed to be good depth right to the mid / end of the second round. If we have a 1st and 2 2nd round picks we should get at least one impact player and hopefully 2. Everyone is projecting us as having a lot of extra picks for compensation so we can still get depth.

[Smeefers]

I wish I could come up with a scenario for you, but I'm not very good at looking into my draft crystal ball. All I see is blood and crying and lots of apologies. What I do think is that TT doesn't really give a rip about position. Now, don't get me wrong, if he grades a bunch of guys out at B and they're all sitting, waiting for him, he'll go with a pass rusher or cb, or whatever he thinks is our greatest need. If there's one B+ and the rest of his B's, and that B+ happens to be a WR or a TE, he'll pick em. It's how he rolls. Sometimes I wish it wasn't, but it's what he does. It's also why he'll move up to grab someone he likes. If he sees an A in a storm of B-'s, he'll jump up and get him. I'm pretty confident that whatever pick TT makes, it'll have value.

I know everyone here already knows all this stuff, but I can't find anything to comment on, so this was it. I miss regular season football.

[wist43]

I think all of you are crazy if you think TT will do anything to help the defense.

He will draft 36 DL,LB, and DB's in rds 6-7 to shore up the defense in 4 years.

So, in conclusion?? We need defense, we're stacked at WR... so obviously TT is going to take a WR in rd. 1 - to draw any other conclusion would be crazy :)

[Smidgeon]

No QB is drafted this year.

Why is this crazy? Flynn will be leaving via Free Agency, Rodgers has a concussion history (if slight), and the only other QBs on the roster haven't proven they even belong as clipboard carriers in the NFL.

Why this is less crazy than you think? Because TT has confidence in M3's ability to mold an NFL QB out of dirt. Or tundra. And because it's TT.

[Joemailman]

I think all of you are crazy if you think TT will do anything to help the defense.

He will draft 36 DL,LB, and DB's in rds 6-7 to shore up the defense in 4 years.

So, in conclusion?? We need defense, we're stacked at WR... so obviously TT is going to take a WR in rd. 1 - to draw any other conclusion would be crazy :)

Didn't you say this before the 2009 draft?

[wist43]

Didn't you say this before the 2009 draft?

The Raji pick put much more squarely in support of TT, but you could tell he didn't want to make the pick... TT had Crabtree rated higher, and went against his board and principles - his breaking ranks with his own philosophy is what put us over the top and won us a SB. If he doesn't draft Raji, and if he doesn't trade up for Matthews, we don't win the SB last year.

Now that we've won one, I suppose we can go back to drafting 6 OL, 6 RB's, 8 WR's, and a QB... I'm sure our next starting OLB is tending bar somewhere right now.

[Lurker64]

TT had Crabtree rated higher, and went against his board and principles

I find it impossible to believe that you know this. As far as I know (and I would know) TT has never came out and published his board or said anything about how he specific players were ranked in relation to anyway.

Anyway, having a wide receiver rated ahead of a defensive tackle is nonsensical when you realize that actual NFL teams do not arrange their boards vertically (at least Ted Thompson does not), they arrange their boards horizontally and rank vertically within position groups. Raji was the top rated (or 2nd rated) DL in the high first round tier, Crabtree was the top rated WR in the high first round tier. Whether you take the WR or the DT is a conversation you have weeks before the draft. Thompson knew he was taking Raji (and probably Jackson) ahead of Crabtree probably at the beginning of March.

[Bretsky]

2 THREAD REQUEST FOR LURKER

Can you post a summary of the cominbine numbers for ...perhaps a list of names along with how they tested out

1. OLB's ?
and
2. DL ?

I'm curious as to how some of these guys graded out and I was unable to watch much of the combine. I keep trying to sign up for espn insider but they recognize my email address as being somebody else

[Lurker64]

2 THREAD REQUEST FOR LURKER

Can you post a summary of the cominbine numbers for ...perhaps a list of names along with how they tested out

1. OLB's ?
and
2. DL ?

I'm curious as to how some of these guys graded out and I was unable to watch much of the combine. I keep trying to sign up for espn insider but they recognize my email address as being somebody else

When I know more, I'll let you know. Right now all we really have is the raw data and you have to massage it a little bit in order to figure out what it actually means (since nobody actually runs a 3 cone drill in an NFL game.)

For OLBs, the early results that at 28 it has to be one of Andre Branch, Nick Perry, Whitney Mercilus, or Ronnell Lewis (assuming Ingram and Upshaw are gone, Ingram will be, Upshaw had a pretty awful combine.) Of those, Mercilus would be the riskiest of the bunch, followed by Lewis, Branch, with Perry being a fairly low risk bet. There aren't really any other OLBs that (right now) seem to be worth a first round pick though some of those guys would be might be worth a day 2 pick (Penn State's Crawford, WVU's Bruce Irvin, Arkansas' Bequette Arkansas, and Syracuse's Jones are worth looks later.) I know you like Curry, but the combine raised some questions about his first step (it's not what we hoped it would be) and how he times at his pro day will be important.

"Safe" or "risky" here being a description of the conversion prospect's ability to play a 3-4 OLB in the NFL. Rounds graded by upside, risk as the probability of reaching that upside. I haven't figured out a way to model the "Everybody from Clemson is terrible in the NFL" factor, so you might not want to buy into Andre Branch. Seriously, the Clemson thing is creepy... it's like Penn State RBs, except it's Clemson everything.

For the DEs, the top tier is Still, Poe, Cox, and Brockers in some order. Pretty big fall off after those guys, but Reyes and Worthy are borderline bottom of the first guys (Reyes>Worthy, IMO).

[pbmax]

I find it impossible to believe that you know this. As far as I know (and I would know) TT has never came out and published his board or said anything about how he specific players were ranked in relation to anyway.

Anyway, having a wide receiver rated ahead of a defensive tackle is nonsensical when you realize that actual NFL teams do not arrange their boards vertically (at least Ted Thompson does not), they arrange their boards horizontally and rank vertically within position groups. Raji was the top rated (or 2nd rated) DL in the high first round tier, Crabtree was the top rated WR in the high first round tier. Whether you take the WR or the DT is a conversation you have weeks before the draft. Thompson knew he was taking Raji (and probably Jackson) ahead of Crabtree probably at the beginning of March.

McGinn reported later that spring that Crabtree was the highest rated prospect left on the board at the pick. Anonymously sourced of course, but its not been contradicted that I know of.

[Lurker64]

McGinn reported later that spring that Crabtree was the highest rated prospect left on the board at the pick. Anonymously sourced of course, but its not been contradicted that I know of.

Well, I think that there's a misinterpretation about what this actually means. Here's how you set up an NFL draft board:

You start out with giving each prospect you are considering a numerical grade along the same lines of speculating how the player can impact the team (i.e. starter or roleplayer), how the player can impact the game (does he create mismatches, is he a liability against something), and how quickly he will come into his own (first year starter, first year contributor, project, etc.) This numerical grade has flags added to it to indicate potential concerns (coming off injury, character questions, intelligence questions, etc.)

Then you assemble each position group according to the grades. You take all the prospects you would project to a specific position and rank them according to their grades, vertically.

Then you assemble your board by arranging all the position groups horizontally, and you draw lines in each position group to establish tiers. The players above this line are elite, the players above this line are high first round picks, the players above this line are late first round picks or high second round picks, etc. Then you cross off players as they are taken.

When pick #9 came Crabtree was absolutely the top remaining player in the WR group and Raji was the top remaining player in the DL group, and it's entirely possible that Crabtree had a higher grade than Raji since Crabtree had a grade "Becomes a starter during his rookie year" and Raji had a grade "Contributes first year and starts second year" and by that criterion then Raji would deserve a lower grade, and this would be a condition under which McGinn's sourced statement is technically correct but still misleading.

Since "higher grade" is a combination of upside, time to reach upside, and probability to reach upside. You can easily have a lower grade on a player with a higher ceiling because of bust potential or projected difficulty or time to approach his ceiling, and on the recommendation of coaches take the lower graded player because the coaches are confident in their ability to help the player overcome whatever it is (since this isn't something that scouts are qualified to comment on), or you're taking the long view and you don't need an immediate starter.

So it's entirely likely that Crabtree was given a 7.0 and Raji given a 6.9, and thus Crabtree was the highest rated prospect, but Thompson and the staff considered Raji a better player in the long term, and a player who would help the team more. In this scenario Thompson in no way "went against his board and his principles", and I'm pretty sure this is what actually happened. It's just slightly irresponsible since people's mental image is of "Mel Kiper's Big Board".

[sharpe1027]

The Scenario: Trade first round pick for picks next year.

Why this is crazy: The Packers have good depth and don't need to stockpile picks. The need a couple key upgrades. The team is primed to win it all next year so giving up one drafting a potential stud in the first round is just plain stupid.

Why this is less crazy than you might think: The Packers up against the cap for the first time in awhile and may like the idea of freeing up a little money by trading away their first round money, making it a little bit easier to afford veterans like Driver and Clifton. The Packer's are in this for the long haul and if they can pick up value in future drafts, they won't turn it down just because it isn't a popular move with fans.

[pbmax]

Bretsky, JSO has done some of the work for you. For OLB only.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/140806933.html

[wist43]

I find it impossible to believe that you know this. As far as I know (and I would know) TT has never came out and published his board or said anything about how he specific players were ranked in relation to anyway.

Anyway, having a wide receiver rated ahead of a defensive tackle is nonsensical when you realize that actual NFL teams do not arrange their boards vertically (at least Ted Thompson does not), they arrange their boards horizontally and rank vertically within position groups. Raji was the top rated (or 2nd rated) DL in the high first round tier, Crabtree was the top rated WR in the high first round tier. Whether you take the WR or the DT is a conversation you have weeks before the draft. Thompson knew he was taking Raji (and probably Jackson) ahead of Crabtree probably at the beginning of March.

Now I will say you can't possibly know that.

I absolutely remember during the draft hearing several people comment that they believed TT had jumped his board b/c he had the players rated closely, and we had more of a need at DT.

As it happens we still have a need on the DL - entire front 7 for that matter. We have only 2 NFL calibur front 7 people (Raji and Matthews). Everyone else is either average, or should be tending bar. I expect more of the same this year. For TT, and I think you can paraphrase his comments over the years and consider his overall philosophy, to conclude that team building is completely secondary to player picking. His philosophy is to pick the BPA, and over the course of years, players will fall into the starting lineup by way of gravity.

I agree with building thru the draft, but I also believe in plugging holes to make runs at championships. As I said, TT went against his board with Raji, and he broke with his MO and traded up to get Matthews - that got us over the hump.

Bottom line is, don't expect TT to draft defensive players simply b/c our defense is pathetic. An entire defense of Frank Zombo's isn't going to cut it.

[Smeefers]

I read a pretty good article on how TT drafts. http://jerseyal.com/GBP/2012/02/23/ted-thompsons-nfl-draft-strategy-best-value-available/

[sharpe1027]

Wist, the tone of your posts make it sound like they were down with the Vikings in the Suck for Luck competition. You are consistent. :)

I agree that TT won't draft all defense as a knee jerk reaction to one year. I also don't think it would be smart do so. I'd rather have them win by scoring 40 and giving up 30 than have them lose by giving up 14 and only scoring 10. Keep bringing in players on both sides of the ball. Never miss an opportunity to improve at regardless of the position.

[wist43]

Wist, the tone of your posts make it sound like they were down with the Vikings in the Suck for Luck competition. You are consistent. :)

I agree that TT won't draft all defense as a knee jerk reaction to one year. I also don't think it would be smart do so. I'd rather have them win by scoring 40 and giving up 30 than have them lose by giving up 14 and only scoring 10. Keep bringing in players on both sides of the ball. Never miss an opportunity to improve at regardless of the position.

If you have a QB?? you will always have a shot... TT has done a great job of giving Rodgers weapons, but there's no balance. Since we have an explosive offense that is locked in for at least next year, and figuring Rodgers has 6-8 good years ahead, it only makes sense to plug the up the holes in the leaky defense and make a couple of legitimate runs at some Lombardi trophies.

As it is with TT, he will likely draft according to his board and if the top rated player is offense, so be it... if at the next pick the top rated player is offense, so be it, and so on, and so on. The first 3 picks off the board last year?? All offense - despite the fact that our front seven couldn't generate pressure against a High School team. Last year, TT filled the front seven with special teams guys and bartenders, and it cost a shot at the SB.

If TT doesn't think the defensive players he values will be available at whatever pick, I want him to move up or down accordingly. I want defense; I always want more defense. As it is, our defense is nothing short of pathetic.

Just sayin' :)

[Smeefers]

If you have a QB?? you will always have a shot... TT has done a great job of giving Rodgers weapons, but there's no balance. Since we have an explosive offense that is locked in for at least next year, and figuring Rodgers has 6-8 good years ahead, it only makes sense to plug the up the holes in the leaky defense and make a couple of legitimate runs at some Lombardi trophies.

As it is with TT, he will likely draft according to his board and if the top rated player is offense, so be it... if at the next pick the top rated player is offense, so be it, and so on, and so on. The first 3 picks off the board last year?? All offense - despite the fact that our front seven couldn't generate pressure against a High School team. Last year, TT filled the front seven with special teams guys and bartenders, and it cost a shot at the SB.

If TT doesn't think the defensive players he values will be available at whatever pick, I want him to move up or down accordingly. I want defense; I always want more defense. As it is, our defense is nothing short of pathetic.

Just sayin' :)

That's spot on. When you put it like that, it's amazing we got to 15-1 and led the league in turn overs and were awesome in the red zone and had the MVP of the league.

[George Cumby]

The Raji pick put much more squarely in support of TT, but you could tell he didn't want to make the pick... TT had Crabtree rated higher, and went against his board and principles - his breaking ranks with his own philosophy is what put us over the top and won us a SB. If he doesn't draft Raji, and if he doesn't trade up for Matthews, we don't win the SB last year.

Now that we've won one, I suppose we can go back to drafting 6 OL, 6 RB's, 8 WR's, and a QB... I'm sure our next starting OLB is tending bar somewhere right now.

At the draft presser, TT was somewhat beside himself, in a TT kind of way, when speaking about Raji. He said words to the effect of "The Good Lord doesn't make many like BJ". Referencing his size and athleticism. Although Crabtree may have been graded higher, really good WRs are much easier to come by than dominant big men. I don't think that TT went outside his philosophy at all.

[sharpe1027]

If you have a QB?? you will always have a shot... TT has done a great job of giving Rodgers weapons, but there's no balance. Since we have an explosive offense that is locked in for at least next year, and figuring Rodgers has 6-8 good years ahead, it only makes sense to plug the up the holes in the leaky defense and make a couple of legitimate runs at some Lombardi trophies.


I'm not suggestion not picking defensive players, but there's no reason to go all (or almost all) defense in any one draft. The reality is that most players take a while to develop so you don't get immediate benefits anyway. Also, you are really shooting yourself in the foot if you cut the pool of available players in half be excluding all offensive players.

Where I will agree with you is that on a decisions between two closely-rated players, go with the defensive player. :)

[cheesner]

As I recall TT commented that crabtree was considered because he was very talented. This has morphed into TT jumping his board. I think they had crab as a better talent bit correctly downgraded him on character. I think Raji was still the top player on their board.

[Pugger]

No QB is drafted this year.

Why is this crazy? Flynn will be leaving via Free Agency, Rodgers has a concussion history (if slight), and the only other QBs on the roster haven't proven they even belong as clipboard carriers in the NFL.

Why this is less crazy than you think? Because TT has confidence in M3's ability to mold an NFL QB out of dirt. Or tundra. And because it's TT.

I think it is crazy. Harrell may be the answer as Rodgers' backup, but who knows about Hill and it wouldn't hurt to have another QB in camp to push both of them. We'll draft a QB but not until the later rounds.

[sharpe1027]

As I recall TT commented that crabtree was considered because he was very talented. This has morphed into TT jumping his board. I think they had crab as a better talent bit correctly downgraded him on character. I think Raji was still the top player on their board.

It was a good thing too, they ended up being able to sign Tom Crabtree as a free agent. They saved a ton of money by not drafting him in the first round.

[Deputy Nutz]

I find it difficult to comprehend the Packers going into 2012 with 5 tight ends on the roster especially when Donald Driver is going to make this roster again. The offense is flooded with pass catchers right now and if the Thompson is going to improve the offense he is going to have to look at drafting some running backs, or draft linemen, again.

Clifton has nothing left to offer, sure he can be good for 5 games in a season, but he needs to be replaced as the starter. This is also a deliema because you spent a first round pick on a Tackle that suffered a significant injury that might not be available to start the season, and Newhouse had more downs than ups last year. Newhouse is a work in progress, and should deserve the first crack at left tackle in mini camps, but the Packers need another 2 bodies that can provide capable depth at the tackle position. Bulaga certainly isn't the model of health.

I don't recomend taking an interior linemen in the first two rounds but who am I. Konz is a good player but I just wouldn't draft a center in the first two rounds.

Defense the Packers can get better every where. If the Packers take a cornerback then he can be a work in progres with a high ceiling because it is the only position where the first 3 spots are secured, unless Woodson moves to safety.

There is going to be OLB available at the end of the first round that can make an impact in 2012 for the Packers, but the question is can the Packer go another position and still find a player at OLB that can still make an impact in the second round? I would think Thompson will be on the phone looking to trade back a few spots to still land that OLB or DE, and hopefully grab the other later in the second round. I am not as worried at DE, they need to find someone that can push Neil and stand up against the run and hold their responsiblity, you can find 3-4 defensive ends later in the draft, problem is the shelf is pretty bare at defensive end for the Packers, and they might not have time to groom a defensive end taken later in the draft.

[Lurker64]

I find it difficult to comprehend the Packers going into 2012 with 5 tight ends on the roster

Quarless is essentially a lock to start the season on PUP. By week 9 there will probably be a roster spot if they want him on the roster. So it'll be a "4 TEs" thing.

Plus, last year they went with with 5 TEs and 1 FB. The season before that they rolled with 3 TEs and 3 FBs. It's more or less the same in terms of roster spots devoted to player with similar roles.

[Smidgeon]

I think it is crazy. Harrell may be the answer as Rodgers' backup, but who knows about Hill and it wouldn't hurt to have another QB in camp to push both of them. We'll draft a QB but not until the later rounds.

I think it's crazy too. But somehow, I'm not sure I'd be terribly surprised if none was drafted.

[Smidgeon]

Quarless is essentially a lock to start the season on PUP. By week 9 there will probably be a roster spot if they want him on the roster. So it'll be a "4 TEs" thing.

Plus, last year they went with with 5 TEs and 1 FB. The season before that they rolled with 3 TEs and 3 FBs. It's more or less the same in terms of roster spots devoted to player with similar roles.

If Tom Crabtree lasts on the team, I wouldn't be surprised if it was only until Quarless was fully recovered.

[mraynrand]

I don't recomend taking an interior linemen in the first two rounds but who am I. Konz is a good player but I just wouldn't draft a center in the first two rounds.

Can you imagine the Packerrats howling were Konz the Packers' first round pick?

[Lurker64]

If Tom Crabtree lasts on the team, I wouldn't be surprised if it was only until Quarless was fully recovered.

Tom Crabtree's on the team because he's a good special teamer, and he's the only TE that is good at the dirty, nasty stuff. That's not a niche that's going to be filled by D.J. Williams , Quarless, or Finley. Ryan Taylor is Crabtree's main competition.

[Patler]

Tom Crabtree's on the team because he's a good special teamer, and he's the only TE that is good at the dirty, nasty stuff. That's not a niche that's going to be filled by D.J. Williams , Quarless, or Finley. Ryan Taylor is Crabtree's main competition.

The last couple weeks before Quarless was injured, there were several comments from writers that he had focused on improving his blocking, and had become just as good as Crabtree. Since Quarless was clearly the better receiver, he was on his way to cementing a full time spot as the second TE regardless of situations. Crabtree's value was declining.

See this:

http://host.madison.com/sports/football/professional/packers-notes-quarless-was-showing-promise-as-run-blocker/article_d020bfb8-2269-11e1-9136-0019bb2963f4.html

[Deputy Nutz]

Can you imagine the Packerrats howling were Konz the Packers' first round pick?

Well it wouldn't fill the biggest need but he would make an impact and fill a spot right away. You could do far worse with the pick.

[mraynrand]

Well it wouldn't fill the biggest need but he would make an impact and fill a spot right away. You could do far worse with the pick.

I agree. It's just that everyone is so focused on defense, I bet a lot of people would lose it. But that's nothing new is it? :)

[Fritz]

Hah. Imagine the howling that'll take place when Ted picks a wide receiver or a tight end in the first round.

[MJZiggy]

Hah. Imagine the howling that'll take place when Ted picks a wide receiver or a tight end in the first round.

You just like howling.

[Pugger]

Can you imagine the Packerrats howling were Konz the Packers' first round pick?

If Konz is still there it will depend upon if Wells signs elsewhere and we don't get Myers either.

[woodbuck27]

No QB is drafted this year.

Why is this crazy? Flynn will be leaving via Free Agency, Rodgers has a concussion history (if slight), and the only other QBs on the roster haven't proven they even belong as clipboard carriers in the NFL.

Why this is less crazy than you think? Because TT has confidence in M3's ability to mold an NFL QB out of dirt. Or tundra. And because it's TT.

Any NFL team with serious plans to make the playoffs and go deep in them has to have an awesome starting QB and a very reliable backup QB.

TT will be addressing that issue if and when we lose Matt Flynn to whichever team.

This Peyton Manning question is playing with TT's plans to either keep Matt Flynn by franchising him or the option getting some value for his development in Green Bay. As it stands TT must simply franchise Matt Flynn. As that will stand we have a very reliable backup QB.

Until the Peyton Manning question is settled. TT will hang onto Matt Flynn. Who's the loser here? I'm thinking that Matt Flynn may be a bit upset but he won't feel $poor$. He's looking at pretty good money next season if he's franchised with us and remains a backup.

[wist43]

Wells is gone, and Clifton is likely gone... so that means going into the season our starting center is Dietrich-Smith, and our starting LT is Marshall Newhouse?? Sherrod's injury was gruesome; will he even play again?? and even if he does, good God he looked awful last year - he's well on his way to Justin Harrell status.

And of course there is that pathetic front seven on the defensive side of the ball.

For all of the accolades heaped upon TT, and rightly so for the most part, he has a 7-9 roster surrounding a 16-0 QB. I think this roster is lacking front line talent at some pretty critical positions (OL and DL's, and OLB), and has virtually no depth at those positions. We're almost a mirror image of the Patriots, i.e. a great QB and a buncha hooey.

While the OL has its problems, and has been a problem since TT and M3 arrived, I do like Newhouse, and Dietrich-Smith is at least servicable - that front seven on defense though... wow, that is a mess!!

TT's philosophy says that backups developed over the past 2-4 years should be stepping into those starting rolls, but the talent simply isn't there. If TT doesn't make some moves to infuse some talent into that front seven, and depending on what the Lions do this offseason, I could see a lot of people picking the Lions to win the division next year.

Bottom line is this roster has a lot of problems.

[pbmax]

Any NFL team with serious plans to make the playoffs and go deep in them has to have an awesome starting QB and a very reliable backup QB.

TT will be addressing that issue if and when we lose Matt Flynn to whichever team...

Wood, the deadline for the tag was Monday. Flynn will be a FA. There was simply no room in the Packers cap to do a QB franchise tender without having a trade agreement in place. Manning being a FA and the RGIII sweepstakes probably made finalizing a deal next to impossible with so many options available to teams.

[pbmax]

Wells is gone, and Clifton is likely gone... so that means going into the season our starting center is Dietrich-Smith, and our starting LT is Marshall Newhouse?? Sherrod's injury was gruesome; will he even play again?? and even if he does, good God he looked awful last year - he's well on his way to Justin Harrell status.

Newhouse had some trouble but somehow muddled through a major contribution at a key spot for a 15-1 team. Bulaga and Lang are very solid and Sitton is near All-Pro. Its hardly a tire fire. The question is at Center where you need brains but not the rarest physical talent and Tackle depth and a challenger to Newhouse.

Sherrod's injury was indeed gruesome, but its a broken bone not a herniated back and he stands a good chance of returning from it. The comparison to Harrell is just laughable at this point, as the bigger question with Sherrod is timing of his rehab rather than "will he ever be healthy again?".

[King Friday]

The comparison to Harrell is just laughable at this point, as the bigger question with Sherrod is timing of his rehab rather than "will he ever be healthy again?".

Sherrod showed SOME promise when playing. He clearly has much to learn, but he was able to hold his own on occasion. It is very tough to claim any rookie from last year is a bust candidate...the kids never had a chance to work with the team until August. LT is a hard enough position to work into as a rookie with a full offseason regimen to get a kid up to speed. Trying to do it in under a month is impossible.

[Bretsky]

Newhouse had some trouble but somehow muddled through a major contribution at a key spot for a 15-1 team. Bulaga and Lang are very solid and Sitton is near All-Pro. Its hardly a tire fire. The question is at Center where you need brains but not the rarest physical talent and Tackle depth and a challenger to Newhouse.

Sherrod's injury was indeed gruesome, but its a broken bone not a herniated back and he stands a good chance of returning from it. The comparison to Harrell is just laughable at this point, as the bigger question with Sherrod is timing of his rehab rather than "will he ever be healthy again?".

The Marshmellow was the most overrated player in this forum. Hopefully he gets better.

[Bretsky]

Sherrod showed SOME promise when playing. He clearly has much to learn, but he was able to hold his own on occasion. It is very tough to claim any rookie from last year is a bust candidate...the kids never had a chance to work with the team until August. LT is a hard enough position to work into as a rookie with a full offseason regimen to get a kid up to speed. Trying to do it in under a month is impossible.


In the end Sherrod needed development and was not ready. The Tackles picked in front of him played much better....but that is how it's suppose to work. He was drafted around where he should have been. It's not like we could have traded down and picked up a stud OLB or anything ;)

[mraynrand]

The question is at Center where you need brains but not the rarest physical talent.

Not to mention the ability to rapidly untie shoes

[pbmax]

In the end Sherrod needed development and was not ready. The Tackles picked in front of him played much better....but that is how it's suppose to work. He was drafted around where he should have been. It's not like we could have traded down and picked up a stud OLB or anything ;)

Well, that is part of the McCarthy way. Cross train them starting with their first year and set back their development. :lol:

Given seven active roster slots, there isn't much choice especially at tackle, but you would have preferred that Colledge, Lang and Sherrod got the Sitton treatment.

[woodbuck27]

Post-combine position rankings for 2012 NFL Draft


http://static.nfl.com/static/content/catch_all/nfl_image/mike_mayock-110726_65.jpg
By Mike Mayock NFL Network
http://bleacherreport.com/tb/bfxXP?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=nfl

Quarterback

1. Andrew Luck, Stanford
2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor
3. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M
4. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State
5. Kirk Cousins, Michigan State

Running Back

1. Trent Richardson, Alabama
2. Doug Martin, Boise State
3. David Wilson, Virginia Tech
4. Lamar Miller, Miami (Fla.)
5. LaMichael James, Oregon

Rise: Martin
Fall: Miller, Wilson

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Wide Receiver

1. Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State
3. Michael Floyd, Notre Dame
2. Kendall Wright, Baylor
4. Stephen Hill, Georgia Tech
5. Alshon Jeffery, South Carolina

Rise: Floyd
Fall: Wright

New entry: Hill
Out: LSU's Rueben Randle

Tight End

1. Orson Charles, Georgia ** NOTE: Just read a report that he was charges with a DUI. **
2. Coby Fleener, Stanford
3. Dwayne Allen, Clemson
4. Deangelo Peterson, LSU
5. Ladarius Green, Louisiana-Lafayette

NFL.com's Mock Draft Central
http://static.nfl.com/static/content/catch_all/nfl_image/mockdraft_120229_65x90.jpgWith the combine now in the rearview, NFL.com analysts unveil their attempts at projecting how Round 1 will go on April 26. More ... (http://www.nfl.com/draft/2012/mock-drafts)



Offensive Tackle

1. Matt Kalil, USC
2. Riley Reiff, Iowa
3. Jonathan Martin, Stanford
4. Mike Adams, Ohio State
5. Cordy Glenn, Georgia

Guard

1. David DeCastro, Stanford
2. Kevin Zeitler, Wisconsin
3. Amini Silatolu, Midwestern State
4. Kelechi Osemele, Iowa State
5. Brandon Brooks, Miami (Ohio)

Center

1. Peter Konz, Wisconsin
2. Philip Blake, Baylor
3. Ben Jones, Georgia
4. David Molk, Michigan
5. Michael Brewster, Ohio State

Defensive End

1. Quinton Coples, North Carolina
2. Courtney Upshaw, Alabama
3. Nick Perry, USC
4. Vinny Curry, Marshall
5. Jared Crick, Nebraska

Rise: Coples, Perry, Curry, Crick
New entry: Crick, Upshaw (formerly listed as linebacker)

Out: Clemson's Andre Branch, Illinois' Whitney Mercilus (now listed as outside linebacker), South Carolina's Melvin Ingram (now listed as outside linebacker)

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Defensive Tackle

1. Dontari Poe, Memphis
2. Fletcher Cox, Mississippi State
3. Michael Brockers, LSU
4. Jerel Worthy, Michigan State
5. Kendall Reyes, Connecticut

Rise: Poe, Cox
Fall: Brockers, Worthy

Out: Penn State's Devon Still, Clemson's Brandon Thompson

Outside Linebacker

1. Melvin Ingram, South Carolina
2. Whitney Mercilus, Illinois
3. Andre Branch, Clemson
4. Ronnell Lewis, Oklahoma
5. Shea McClellin, Boise State

Out: Alabama's Courtney Upshaw (now listed at defensive end)

Inside Linebacker

1. Luke Kuechly, Boston College
2. Dont'a Hightower, Alabama
3. Mychal Kendricks, California
4. Keenan Robinson, Texas
5. Sean Spence, Miami

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Cornerback

1. Morris Claiborne, LSU
2. Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama
3. Janoris Jenkins, North Alabama
4. Josh Robinson, Central Florida
5. Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina

New entry: Robinson, Gilore

Out: Montana's Trumaine Johnson, Iowa State's Leonard Johnson

Safety

1. Mark Barron, Alabama
2. Harrison Smith, Notre Dame
3. Brandon Taylor, LSU
4. DeQuan Menzie, Alabama
5. Phillip Thomas, Syracuse

New entry: Menzie, Taylor

Out: Boise State's George Iloka, Oklahoma State's Markelle Martin



**
Orson Charles, top tight end NFL draft prospect, arrested for DUI

Posted by Michael David Smith on March 9, 2012, 7:38 AM EST
http://nbcprofootballtalk.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/orsoncharles.jpg?w=250 Getty Images Orson Charles (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/7457/orson-charles), a Georgia tight end who is considered one of the top prospects at his position in the NFL draft, was arrested early this morning and charged with DUI.
Charles’s name is listed on the Athens-Clarke County Jail booking log (http://ga-athensclarkecounty.civicplus.com/files/sheriff/jailrpt.htm), and the student newspaper at the University of Georgia confirms (http://redandblack.com/2012/03/09/georgia-tight-end-orson-charles-charged-with-dui-early-friday/) that the Orson Charles who was arrested is the same Orson Charles who was an All-SEC tight end at Georgia.
Charles left Georgia early to enter this year’s draft and is listed (http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/09000d5d827642a3/article/postcombine-position-rankings-for-2012-nfl-draft) as the No. 1 tight end prospect by Mike Mayock.
For NFL teams, the question will now be this: If Charles can’t stay out of trouble during the couple of months before the draft, when he knows he’s being closely scrutinized by the NFL world, will he be able to stay out of trouble after he’s drafted?

[wist43]

Newhouse had some trouble but somehow muddled through a major contribution at a key spot for a 15-1 team. Bulaga and Lang are very solid and Sitton is near All-Pro. Its hardly a tire fire. The question is at Center where you need brains but not the rarest physical talent and Tackle depth and a challenger to Newhouse.

Sherrod's injury was indeed gruesome, but its a broken bone not a herniated back and he stands a good chance of returning from it. The comparison to Harrell is just laughable at this point, as the bigger question with Sherrod is timing of his rehab rather than "will he ever be healthy again?".

Besides the injuries, Harrell just didn't have any talent - and Sherrod sure looked like he didn't have any talent last year. Yes, Tackle is an extremely difficult position, and T's take time to develop, but Sherrod was nothing short of awful last year. Don't know what the Packers thought they saw on tape, but he stunk on every snap they were forced to have him on the field. I was actually surprised how bad he was... to say a guy needs development is one thing, but Sherrod didn't look like he had any talent to develop.

[woodbuck27]

Besides the injuries, Harrell just didn't have any talent - and Sherrod sure looked like he didn't have any talent last year. Yes, Tackle is an extremely difficult position, and T's take time to develop, but Sherrod was nothing short of awful last year. Don't know what the Packers thought they saw on tape, but he stunk on every snap they were forced to have him on the field. I was actually surprised how bad he was... to say a guy needs development is one thing, but Sherrod didn't look like he had any talent to develop.

Yup. LT is a major concern 'now'.

[Lurker64]

Besides the injuries, Harrell just didn't have any talent

There's a professional scout who posts over at another message board I frequent who claims that Justin Harrell was the closest DT prospect to Ndamukong Suh other than Suh himself. It's just that when you lose the back, you lose everything, and that's what happened to Harrell.

[wist43]

There's a professional scout who posts over at another message board I frequent who claims that Justin Harrell was the closest DT prospect to Ndamukong Suh other than Suh himself. It's just that when you lose the back, you lose everything, and that's what happened to Harrell.

Well, I can attest to that... back pain is a constant for me - costs me 3-4 strokes per round :)

[Joemailman]

If I listened to Wist and Woody long enough, they could probably convince me the Packers didn't win a Super Bowl a year ago. The failed experiment at LG set Sherrod back last year, but he played respectably at RT when injuries forced him into the lineup. He has plenty of talent, and hopefully the broken leg won't be a major setback.

[Smidgeon]

There's a professional scout who posts over at another message board I frequent who claims that Justin Harrell was the closest DT prospect to Ndamukong Suh other than Suh himself. It's just that when you lose the back, you lose everything, and that's what happened to Harrell.

I always rooted for the guy simply because so many people seemed to be rooting against him.

[pbmax]

Besides the injuries, Harrell just didn't have any talent - and Sherrod sure looked like he didn't have any talent last year. Yes, Tackle is an extremely difficult position, and T's take time to develop, but Sherrod was nothing short of awful last year. Don't know what the Packers thought they saw on tape, but he stunk on every snap they were forced to have him on the field. I was actually surprised how bad he was... to say a guy needs development is one thing, but Sherrod didn't look like he had any talent to develop.

I know what you are saying about his struggles, but I thought he clearly had the talent. He just needed reps at Tackle and Tackle only. He was doing well at RT the more he played. He just wasn't up to speed on the left side.

They do need a serious contender for depth and unless Thompson trusts someone on the PS, I would bet Cliffy is coming back now that the team doesn't need to Franchise tag cap space. If he does, that would be a sign the draft will be all defense all the time.

[woodbuck27]

If I listened to Wist and Woody long enough, they could probably convince me the Packers didn't win a Super Bowl a year ago. The failed experiment at LG set Sherrod back last year, but he played respectably at RT when injuries forced him into the lineup. He has plenty of talent, and hopefully the broken leg won't be a major setback.

A wise sage once informed me to never rely on or live in the past.

[woodbuck27]

I know what you are saying about his struggles, but I thought he clearly had the talent. He just needed reps at Tackle and Tackle only. He was doing well at RT the more he played. He just wasn't up to speed on the left side.

They do need a serious contender for depth and unless Thompson trusts someone on the PS, I would bet Cliffy is coming back now that the team doesn't need to Franchise tag cap space. If he does, that would be a sign the draft will be all defense all the time.


Interesting speculation pbmax. So your analysis is that if TT retains Chad Clifton then...he will exclusively draft defense this year. That's in direct contradiction to TT's MO.

Comment please.

[pbmax]

Interesting speculation pbmax. So your analysis is that if TT retains Chad Clifton then...he will exclusively draft defense this year. That's in direct contradiction to TT's MO.

Comment please.

It was not meant to be taken as literal* for all seven rounds. However, if there is space for Clifton (much more likely if Flynn leaves) then the need for a good, non-developmental Tackle candidate is lessened. Bulaga, Newhouse and Clifton (though he did have a back procedure) will enter the offseason program with* a healthy prognosis.

If Thompson doesn't need to take one early, then its more likely that he can concentrate on defense.


EDIT: good grief, I need a proofreader

[woodbuck27]

It was not meant to be taken as literally for all seven rounds. However, if there is space for Clifton (much more likely if Flynn leaves) then the need for a good, non-developmental Tackle candidate is lessened. Bulaga, Newhouse and Clifton (though he did have a back procedure) will enter the offseason program will healthy a prognosis.

If Thompson doesn't need to take one early, then its more likely that he can concentrate on defense.

OK

[TheRaven]

It was not meant to be taken as literally for all seven rounds. However, if there is space for Clifton (much more likely if Flynn leaves) then the need for a good, non-developmental Tackle candidate is lessened. Bulaga, Newhouse and Clifton (though he did have a back procedure) will enter the offseason program will healthy a prognosis.

If Thompson doesn't need to take one early, then its more likely that he can concentrate on defense.

I definitely agree and feel this is the most likely scenario to occur for our OT/draft needs. I also agree that Sherrod showed he has some talent, to say otherwise seems quite harsh. It will be up to him (and the Packers allowing him to settle into one position) to live up to that talent at this point.

[woodbuck27]

I definitely agree and feel this is the most likely scenario to occur for our OT/draft needs. I also agree that Sherrod showed he has some talent, to say otherwise seems quite harsh. It will be up to him (and the Packers allowing him to settle into one position) to live up to that talent at this point.

Yes. Sherrod needs some time to feel comfortable in the OL position where he fits best. We need to be patient with this draft pick.

[Fritz]

I thought, for a developmental pick - and make no mistake, Sherrod was that - he held up pretty well. I'm optimistic about his ability to play left tackle.