The Evolution of the Defense

[3irty1]

There has been a lot of speculation about the moving parts of the Packer defense what with all the new toys they've added and a bunch of discussion on what this year will look like. I'm going to give my speculation right here for how I see it going down. The Packers are a 3-4 base defense but they spend nearly 3/4 of snaps playing something else. For the last three seasons including Woodson's defensive player of the year season and the superbowl season that has primarily been a 2-4 defense which looks like this:
http://sinfl.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/pack1.jpg

Why were the Packers so successful with this formation? Well because they actually run multiple versions. Turn's out when the Packers want to stop the run they are among the best in the NFL. The 2-4 actually works on that principle--the Packers are so good against the run that Dom invites offenses to try it. It works for a couple of reasons but mainly Charles Woodson. Good schemes put players in a position to be successful and this scheme is built to make Woodson a star by inventing a position for him. Schematically he counts as an extra DB, but in reality he's as good as a LB when playing near the line. Against the run our 2-4 can be much like a 4-3, if you imagine both DE's standing up and being called OLB's and Woodson being an OLB but being called a CB. Really Dom took the Packers' biggest strength, stopping the run, and used it to create a well rounded defense by putting run stuffing players in a pass stopping formation. The perfect Dom Capers three and out goes like this:

1st and 10: The Packers bring out their 2-4 with Pickett and Raji as the down lineman. The offense sees the formation, audibles to a run and gains 6 yards.

2nd and 4: The Packers now bring out their 3-4, sending Sam Shields to the sideline and replace him with CJ Wilson. The offense just ran for an easy 6 yards, they're going to try it again but are now stuffed for a 1 yard gain.

3rd and 3: This is a passing down and distance so the Packers go back to the 2-4, this time with Raji and Wynn as the down lineman. Tramon and Sam move up to the line to press. Pressure and coverage yield an incomplete pass. Offense punts.

So why did the defense suck last year? That 3rd down scenario stopped happening. Tramon had a shoulder injury and was no longer effective in press coverage--so bad even that they stopped asking him to try. The interior pass rush was diminished. But part of it was the offense was just that the league started to catch on, and that daring teams to run was no longer effective when that team is down by 24.

The Peyton Manning Colts are an example of a team with a potent offense that it built its defense to sell out against the pass. Their defensive line is small and fast, their coverage is a smothering tampa-2 shell. They sold out vs the pass a little too hard though where teams would and could run if for no other reason than to shorten the game, keep the ball out of Peyton's hands and give them a better chance at an upset.

This draft makes me think the Packers are about to make another change and field a defense that is less balanced but more suitable for playing with the lead. We're going to sell out against the pass. We drafted, a pure pass-rusher in Perry, we drafted a pure 1-gap style DT in Daniels, we got a LB who excels on 3rd down, and a corner who excels with his back to the basket which is a perfect skill set for those non-aggressive smothering styles of defense. I think what we'll be looking a lot more Colts-like but it sure looks like we've now got the personnel to both stuff the run or play with the lead. Early in games we probably won't look that different, we'll dare teams to run effectively stop that and build a lead. The difference is that when team's are forced to pass into the teeth of our defense, we'll have some serious upgrades. Here's a 2012 perfect 3-and-out:

1st and 10: The Packers bring out the 2-4, Bush replaces Shields, Pickett and Worthy/Raji/Muir will be the two down linemen. In other words our best 2-gap players will maul and control the guards, and hopefully draw a double team. Perry will be playing in place of Walden on the right side. We'll dare the defense to run and protect against the big play. Since this really won't change, and this isn't where the packers were desperate for improvement.

2nd and 4: The Packers have a new look for 2nd and 4. The Packers put Perry with his hand down outside the LT and make him responsible for just the C-gap, lined up next to him is Worthy/Daniels who responsible for just the B-gap, Raji lines up over the center and plays 2-gap, Pickett lines up over the RT and plays 2-gap, Clay lines up outside the TE and drops into coverage, blitzes, whatever. This is the 4-3 hybrid some of you have been describing recently as being piloted by the Patriots of late. Essentially this is a 4-3 to one side of the field and a 3-4 to the other side. It fits the Packers current personnel arguably better than our own traditional 3-4 now as we have exactly 2 dominant 2-gap players, Worthy who is at his best shooting a gap and locating the football, and Perry who can put his hand down and go or get outside and contain. The Packers can shift into and out of this at any time to get dream scenarios... like Clay Isolated on a TE, Raji isolated on the Center.

3rd and 3: The Pack gets Sam Shields back on the field for a 2-4. Raji/Worthy/Daniels/Wynn will all get opportunities, keeping all of them on a pitch count and preventing everyone from wearing down. Clay and Nick pin their ears back from a 2 point stance. Woodson will be moved around more to Safety and ILB in order to get Hayward on the field covering the slot. Those two are such a ball-hawking presence in the slot that it should lead to another season on excessive turnovers. I think the shelves have been sufficiently restocked to have this package be a strength once again. Once Woodson is no longer the play-making monster of this defense, the Packers will have the versatility of 1 and 2 gap specialists to mold it around someone else but in this position we've created for him it would't surprise me if that's later rather than sooner.

[sharpe1027]

Love the ideas and analysis. Great post.

[Harlan Huckleby]

I think the defense sucked because of accumulated bad luck at one position group over short period: First round draft pick Justin Harrell - fail. 2nd round pick Mike Neal - dud. Johnny Jolly follows terrific season with endless lost weekend. Cullin Jenkins - doh! Howard Green - one and done. Unsteady backups.

[Farley Face]

Nice post. All of this will be further accentuated if McMillian can provide an upgrade over Peprah.

[Harlan Huckleby]

http://i860.photobucket.com/albums/ab164/og4rmmia/evolution_of_man.jpg

[Joemailman]

http://i860.photobucket.com/albums/ab164/og4rmmia/evolution_of_man.jpg

What does Cletidus Hunt have to do with this?

[mraynrand]

Y'all gots to give Ol' Cleedeeus a break! Ol' Cleedeeus ben on the ablounger to lose that spare set of tires!

http://i453.photobucket.com/albums/qq254/mraynrand/abloungeHunt.jpg

[Scott Campbell]

That ain't Ol'Cleedeeus. Where's the bling?

[mraynrand]

So why did the defense suck last year? That 3rd down scenario stopped happening. Tramon had a shoulder injury and was no longer effective in press coverage--so bad even that they stopped asking him to try. The interior pass rush was diminished. But part of it was the offense was just that the league started to catch on, and that daring teams to run was no longer effective when that team is down by 24.

Shields and Burnett also got hurt - that didn't help - along with losing Collins. And Woodson wasn't a sure tackler. And you're right, teams stopped taking the bait on first down. Dom needs to revamp the recipe

http://i453.photobucket.com/albums/qq254/mraynrand/CapersWOK.jpg

[Harlan Huckleby]

Nice post.
Thanks. It's good to finally get a little recognition around here.

[Joemailman]

Thanks. It's good to finally get a little recognition around here.

Congratulations. It only took you 6 years and 17,000 posts.

[ND72]

That was because of his 7,000 free agent updates.

[mraynrand]

That ain't Ol'Cleedeeus. Where's the bling?

fo' shizzle I beez sportin' da bling wen ize out wid da pacman!

http://i453.photobucket.com/albums/qq254/mraynrand/CleditusBling.jpg
http://www.detroitlionsblog.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/pacman-jones1.jpg

[wist43]

I think the defense sucked because of accumulated bad luck at one position group over short period: First round draft pick Justin Harrell - fail. 2nd round pick Mike Neal - dud. Johnny Jolly follows terrific season with endless lost weekend. Cullin Jenkins - doh! Howard Green - one and done. Unsteady backups.

The defense sucked b/c we switched schemes 4 seasons ago, and in 4 drafts after the switch TT brought in 3 players that fit the new scheme. 3 players out of a needed 14-15. That's why the defense sucked.

TT tried to play the '08 season with Kampman and Thompson at OLB; he drafted Raji and Matthews in '09 - okay, a good start; and he drafted Neal in '10. That's it... a scheme change, and in 4 offseasons TT only brings in 3 players?? Why are any of you surprised that the front seven sucked whorish tits??

As for Harrell, everybody knew he was a bust; Neal is looking like Harrell part deux; and TT was never going to pay Jenkins, and everyone knew it. That's not bad luck, that's poor player personnel evaluation. Even if TT had some delusion that Harrell would all of sudden produce, he still knew he was going to let Jenkins walk, and Jolly was already covered in red flags. TT simply did not lift a finger to cover the DL, and the front seven in general.

We're just discussing DL here... that's before you ever start picking about that pathetic LB'ing corp.

Bottom line is, TT did next to nothing to complete the scheme change he started in '08... it bit him in the ass last year; and that led to this year's knee-jerk reaction draft in which TT had to - absolutely had to - target every pick for scheme specific players. Had TT and the Packers paid even the least bit of attention to the front seven in '10 and '11, maybe we win the SB last year too, and we're not faced with the worst defense in the NFL and a panic draft.

[smuggler]

Wist, you can't be serious. That's disgraceful.

[MJZiggy]

That was because of his 7,000 free agent updates.

Wrong poster. Harlan for godssakes would you change that avatar already.

[mraynrand]

Wist, you can't be serious!


http://citifield.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/john-mcenroe.jpg

Oh, yes he can!

[Scott Campbell]

The defense sucked b/c we switched schemes 4 seasons ago, and in 4 drafts after the switch TT brought in 3 players that fit the new scheme. 3 players out of a needed 14-15. That's why the defense sucked.


So we've won a Superbowl in 25% of the years since the switch?

[Iron Mike]

http://27.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m09ibsFRLH1qjhttjo1_400.gif

[3irty1]

The defense sucked b/c we switched schemes 4 seasons ago, and in 4 drafts after the switch TT brought in 3 players that fit the new scheme. 3 players out of a needed 14-15. That's why the defense sucked.

TT tried to play the '08 season with Kampman and Thompson at OLB; he drafted Raji and Matthews in '09 - okay, a good start; and he drafted Neal in '10. That's it... a scheme change, and in 4 offseasons TT only brings in 3 players?? Why are any of you surprised that the front seven sucked whorish tits??

As for Harrell, everybody knew he was a bust; Neal is looking like Harrell part deux; and TT was never going to pay Jenkins, and everyone knew it. That's not bad luck, that's poor player personnel evaluation. Even if TT had some delusion that Harrell would all of sudden produce, he still knew he was going to let Jenkins walk, and Jolly was already covered in red flags. TT simply did not lift a finger to cover the DL, and the front seven in general.

We're just discussing DL here... that's before you ever start picking about that pathetic LB'ing corp.

Bottom line is, TT did next to nothing to complete the scheme change he started in '08... it bit him in the ass last year; and that led to this year's knee-jerk reaction draft in which TT had to - absolutely had to - target every pick for scheme specific players. Had TT and the Packers paid even the least bit of attention to the front seven in '10 and '11, maybe we win the SB last year too, and we're not faced with the worst defense in the NFL and a panic draft.

Who are the 3? Who doesn't fit and why?

[pbmax]

3irty1, great post. Only one gripe. If Capers D gives up 6 yards to the run on 1st down, he won't be with us for very long. And because of that, he wouldn't stay in a 2-4. Love everything else.

wist, you have to make a chart of your complaints to keep them straight. Capers was not with the Packers in 08. Kampman was a DE, Jenkins was the other DE in a 4-3 Over run by Bob Sanders and Thompson stood on the sideline wondering how long those fantastic measurables were going to last at DE.

Also, 3 drafted front seven players makes more sense if you think Jolly and Harrell will still be playing. For at least two of those years, that looked to be the case. Didn't work out, and that falls on Thompson and Rock Gullickson, but he isn't quite as loony as you wish him to be.

Your 3 player figure should also carry the caveat that you do not consider draft picks in rounds 4-7 to be useful. Otherwise, you would need to add Wilson, Jones, Guy, Wynn, Smith and Elmore to the other three higher picks.

[wist43]

Who are the 3? Who doesn't fit and why?

I named the 3, Raji, Matthews, and Neal. Jenkins carried over; Hawk wasn't worth the 5th pick, but he carried over too; Pickett carried over; and Bishop developed. All the rest is documented, i.e. a bunch of 6th/7th rd/FA's filling out the rest of the group. And that's before you account for the minuses of the carry overs and draft investment (Jenkins and Neal).

You can say some of what cost us at the position was bad luck, i.e. Jolly; but allowing Jenkins to walk cheap, and depend on a young, injury plagued player, who had shown nothing to date?? and then to ignore the front seven altogether in the first 3 rds last year must have been an excerise in anger management for Dom.

An attacking 3-4 is all about pressure; you can only do so much with scheme and play calling. Just like any other scheme, talent matters. Eventually a lack of talent will catch up to you after teams get a decent amount of tape of what gimmicks you're running. Wynn, Wilson, Jones, Zombo, Walden, Muir, and Green all need to be moved off the roster. None of the LB's really fit an attacking 3-4, and every player on that list has proven thru playing time that they need to be moved off the roster.

[wist43]

wist, you have to make a chart of your complaints to keep them straight. Capers was not with the Packers in 08. Kampman was a DE, Jenkins was the other DE in a 4-3 Over run by Bob Sanders and Thompson stood on the sideline wondering how long those fantastic measurables were going to last at DE.

Also, 3 drafted front seven players makes more sense if you think Jolly and Harrell will still be playing. For at least two of those years, that looked to be the case. Didn't work out, and that falls on Thompson and Rock Gullickson, but he isn't quite as loony as you wish him to be.

Your 3 player figure should also carry the caveat that you do not consider draft picks in rounds 4-7 to be useful. Otherwise, you would need to add Wilson, Jones, Guy, Wynn, Smith and Elmore to the other three higher picks.

Nobody was more bummed about the loss of Jolly than I was... loved that guy.

Everyone keeps falling back to Harrell and Jolly though, and then Neal; that's a lot of faith to put in guys that all had huge question marks... all the while knowing you were going to let Jenkins walk.

As for your "caveat" about mid-round picks... I'm always yelling for more defense at every level of the draft. 3rd round picks may not be instant starters, but they have more upside than 6th rounders; 4th rounders the same; and so on... ironically, all of the guys you listed (Wilson, Jones Guy, Wynn, Smith, and Elmore) are either 6th, or 7th round picks. Not one of them is a "mid-round" pick.

Of course I appreciate 6th and 7th round picks.... I would like as many as possible to promote competition at the bottom end of the roster - and to mine for gold; but taking a front seven player in the 2nd/3rd/4th round is your organization saying they've done their homework, and think "this guy", can develop into a starting calibur NFL player. That's much more of a committment.

[3irty1]

Well believe it or not I was surprised that the defense sucked last year. I'd say the primary reason for that was because it was top 5 the two years before that. Not bad for only bringing in 3 guys. Well Bishop too but that doesn't really count because he was a mid round pick and nobody should ever expect those guys to work out. Hell, nobody should ever even expect a first round pick to work out if he had torn his biceps in college and played through it. I mean come on, that's a chronic back injury waiting to happen. Or Mike Neal? How was it not obvious to Ted that he would injure his knee in camp and need surgery? I think the rotator cuff surgery the year before should have been more than enough of a sign. Bustzilla.

[Pugger]

Well believe it or not I was surprised that the defense sucked last year. I'd say the primary reason for that was because it was top 5 the two years before that. Not bad for only bringing in 3 guys. Well Bishop too but that doesn't really count because he was a mid round pick and nobody should ever expect those guys to work out. Hell, nobody should ever even expect a first round pick to work out if he had torn his biceps in college and played through it. I mean come on, that's a chronic back injury waiting to happen. Or Mike Neal? How was it not obvious to Ted that he would injure his knee in camp and need surgery? I think the rotator cuff surgery the year before should have been more than enough of a sign. Bustzilla.

Ted isn't that clairvoyant.

[3irty1]

3irty1, great post. Only one gripe. If Capers D gives up 6 yards to the run on 1st down, he won't be with us for very long. And because of that, he wouldn't stay in a 2-4. Love everything else.

It's not that far off from the reality though. In our superbowl season everyone was talking about how the Packers run defense was lousy although this never passed the eye-ball test because the Packers were terrific at stopping the run when they needed to. Its a sound strategy in my opinion. If you watch Dom's defensive calls too he tends to make them based on down and distance more so than on who the offense brings out. If you're an offensive play caller who "takes what the defense gives you," you'll play right into Dom's hand because what he gives you is what his individual players excel at stopping. This was finally exposed last year, why take the bait when you can have great success throwing right into the teeth of the defense? The Packers 3rd down defense was the weakest personnel-wise, featuring a nose tackle that never left the field, a JAG as the other interior pass rusher, a JAG in Walden, and an nonathletic safety in Peprah. It wasn't good but it was made even worse when teams played us like every down was 3rd down.

[pbmax]

It's not that far off from the reality though. In our superbowl season everyone was talking about how the Packers run defense was lousy although this never passed the eye-ball test because the Packers were terrific at stopping the run when they needed to. Its a sound strategy in my opinion. If you watch Dom's defensive calls too he tends to make them based on down and distance more so than on who the offense brings out. If you're an offensive play caller who "takes what the defense gives you," you'll play right into Dom's hand because what he gives you is what his individual players excel at stopping. This was finally exposed last year, why take the bait when you can have great success throwing right into the teeth of the defense? The Packers 3rd down defense was the weakest personnel-wise, featuring a nose tackle that never left the field, a JAG as the other interior pass rusher, a JAG in Walden, and an nonathletic safety in Peprah. It wasn't good but it was made even worse when teams played us like every down was 3rd down.

Well, the numbers on that run defense looked pedestrian (not quite 6 ypc though) and the pass D was outstanding. And I was quite concerned that run defense. As it turned out, they could stop the run (esp with Howard Green) when they had to and the offense eventually started putting up enough points that running the Packers out of the building ceased to be a good option. But that team was 500 at one point and the D did not look like world beaters versus the Dolphins or Redskins.

I suspect that defense was not as dominant as its numbers suggest, just as the 2011 D was not as bad as its yardage number makes it look to be.

[3irty1]

Well, the numbers on that run defense looked pedestrian (not quite 6 ypc though) and the pass D was outstanding. And I was quite concerned that run defense. As it turned out, they could stop the run (esp with Howard Green) when they had to and the offense eventually started putting up enough points that running the Packers out of the building ceased to be a good option. But that team was 500 at one point and the D did not look like world beaters versus the Dolphins or Redskins.

I suspect that defense was not as dominant as its numbers suggest, just as the 2011 D was not as bad as its yardage number makes it look to be.

Well on my typical Dom Capers 3-and-out the ypc was 3.5. But that 2010 defense didn't really hit until they kicked the injury bug. Clay and Pickett were both hurt early in the Skins game which turned that D to crap. Your starting OLB for the Phins were Brady Poppinga and Brad Jones. For pretty much the whole season though the secondary was elite, even with Charlie Peprah. Its a real shame we never got to see two games in a row of Burnett and Collins.

Its amazing how bad our defense gets when you take Clay off the field. Hopefully we'll be saying the same thing about Perry on 3rd down.

[Smidgeon]

Well believe it or not I was surprised that the defense sucked last year. I'd say the primary reason for that was because it was top 5 the two years before that. Not bad for only bringing in 3 guys. Well Bishop too but that doesn't really count because he was a mid round pick and nobody should ever expect those guys to work out. Hell, nobody should ever even expect a first round pick to work out if he had torn his biceps in college and played through it. I mean come on, that's a chronic back injury waiting to happen. Or Mike Neal? How was it not obvious to Ted that he would injure his knee in camp and need surgery? I think the rotator cuff surgery the year before should have been more than enough of a sign. Bustzilla.

Excellent points. :D

[RashanGary]

3irty1, great post. Only one gripe. If Capers D gives up 6 yards to the run on 1st down, he won't be with us for very long. And because of that, he wouldn't stay in a 2-4. Love everything else.


If teams play 3 WR sets or greater on the majority of first downs, the risk of Matthews, Perry, Bishop or Hawk getting beat by WR's is pretty great. And if they want to bracket the interior receiver, they're leaving the two outside WR's matched up on corners with only one safety deep.

The risk of giving up a big pass against this offensive package is far greater than the risk of giving up a 6 yard run.



Now, if the Packers end up developing a premier coverage linebacker down the road, I could certainly see a 3-4 type arrangement on first and 10.

For now, Woodson is a premier inside player. Shields and Williams belong on the field. A case may soon be made for our 3rd DL being stronger than our 4th LB. In that case, 3-3-4 would make a lot of sense and IMO would be a better 1st and 10, one score game setup. It would be a better run stopping unit. Maybe a little less confusing, but a nice setup against the run and against 3 WR pass sets.

Maybe you do line Perry up as a 3rd lineman, or maybe one of these young guys is a player right away. Time will tell.

A lot of things can happen, but as long as 3 WR's are on the field, the QB wears a red shirt and CB's are at a great disadvantage near the line of scrimmage, the pass is going to be a far bigger threat against more teams. Some teams, the ones with crappy QB's, I could certainly see 3-4 being the base setup, but that is less games than more.



Like 3irty1 said, there's an evolution toward the passing game, and defenses are countering by having additional cover guys on the field to avoid bad matchups.



I'll bet dollars to dimes we play more nickle than traditional base again this year. In that case, the defense we play most, that's our base IMO.

[pbmax]

I have no doubt the base defense will be played less than pass down sub packages. But regularly giving up a 6 yard run will put the Packers back in a 3-4 on first down.

I am not trying to be pedantic about 6 yards. As Justin said, the prospect of yielding the occasional 6 yard run is perhaps more attractive than lining up a slot receiver on a LB or having to bring a safety down. But if they regularly get 6 yards, that sub package won't be out there for long. The Packers believed that enough to start Bush over Shields on run downs versus the Giants.

[pbmax]

You know, if we would all just stop screwing around, we could monetize our thoughts, instead of seeing them stolen. Esp. wist, Justin and 3irty1 in this case.

http://jerseyal.com/GBP/2012/05/07/green-bay-packers-2012-nfl-draft-the-reasons-behind-the-picks-part-i/

[sharpe1027]

The defense sucked b/c we switched schemes 4 seasons ago, and in 4 drafts after the switch TT brought in 3 players that fit the new scheme. 3 players out of a needed 14-15. That's why the defense sucked.


You're right, the defense has be absolutely terrible each of the past 4 years. There is no other way to explain last year's poor play on defense. Anyone that offers other reasons is just making up excuses. It must have started with the switch. I bet if you went and looked at the defensive benchmarks you would see a huge drop off in the defense the first year of the switch and then perhaps a slight improvement as a few new players were added that have the mythical quality of being able to play in this new scheme.

It is amazingly stupid that any team ever makes a switch in defensive schemes since you need to replace 14-15 player every time you do it. No team I can remember has ever replaced 14-15 players on defense in only a few years. Yet, stupid teams are switching schemes every year. What morons.

[Upnorth]

The defense sucked b/c we switched schemes 4 seasons ago, and in 4 drafts after the switch TT brought in 3 players that fit the new scheme. 3 players out of a needed 14-15. That's why the defense sucked.

TT tried to play the '08 season with Kampman and Thompson at OLB; he drafted Raji and Matthews in '09 - okay, a good start; and he drafted Neal in '10. That's it... a scheme change, and in 4 offseasons TT only brings in 3 players?? Why are any of you surprised that the front seven sucked whorish tits??

As for Harrell, everybody knew he was a bust; Neal is looking like Harrell part deux; and TT was never going to pay Jenkins, and everyone knew it. That's not bad luck, that's poor player personnel evaluation. Even if TT had some delusion that Harrell would all of sudden produce, he still knew he was going to let Jenkins walk, and Jolly was already covered in red flags. TT simply did not lift a finger to cover the DL, and the front seven in general.

We're just discussing DL here... that's before you ever start picking about that pathetic LB'ing corp.

Bottom line is, TT did next to nothing to complete the scheme change he started in '08... it bit him in the ass last year; and that led to this year's knee-jerk reaction draft in which TT had to - absolutely had to - target every pick for scheme specific players. Had TT and the Packers paid even the least bit of attention to the front seven in '10 and '11, maybe we win the SB last year too, and we're not faced with the worst defense in the NFL and a panic draft.

And that is why it was one of the worst defenses in 2009 and 2010. Oh wait, no it was considered to be very very good. My bad...

[BobDobbs]

This is an awesome thread. I think that what Dom is going to do with the Defense is the biggest question of the preseason. He's been really willing to bend, tweak, and torque the D to fit his personnel and the movement of the league. I think one thing we need to be careful of is assuming that the D is going to go a certain way based on the draft. If three of these guys turn into starters down the road that's a good draft right? So how much are these guys going to contribute this year? We'll see.

It's obvious we need more pressure, especially from ROLB an interior DL. So we drafted to fill that. I think big question is what happens to Woodson. Can he play outside anymore? I don't think so, not consistently. I think he comes on as a slot corner and may play safety in the "base". But, the main reason that we moved to playing so much nickel was to get Woodson closer to the ball. I feel like playing him at safety runs counter to that. I may be wrong, but I think we'll see a little less of Woodson this year. We'll see tons of 3 receiver sets so its not like he'll disappear.

They definitely prefer to play the OLBs in a two point stance. The design is to have any LB be able to cover or blitz. That's how we'll be most effective. If we start to play a hybrid with Perry it's only because he can't make the transition, especially in year one. From my deep study of ten minutes of Youtube, he plays a little gentle. But he's got speed, long arms, a feel for the strip and if he can just rush on obvious passing downs then our defense is better.

I can't figure out what happens on the DL I think they want to play a solid three man line. Do we have it? Not unless someone steps up.IGreen played well in run D, but we need someone more dynamic. I am concerned about our run defense, particularly short yardage. I do think that between Worthy, Daniels, Hargrove, and Neal one of those guys is going to be an effective 3rd down pass rusher next to Raji. My guy is Daniels. He's got evil dwarf strength. He's a malevolent midget that's gonna molliwop some suckas. At least I hope so.

I wish I knew what they are going to do in the LB corps. Hawk is a liability in pass coverage. And that means that he gets beaten, but also that we can't blitz Bishop as much and he's a way better blitzer. But if he becomes a situational player then we need to put the helmet on Bishop. I think the biggest obstacle is that he makes men love him. Playoff captain, big contract and you never hear anything but praise from up high. I don't know what it is maybe he smells really good.

Honestly if we see Bush playing on 1st and 2nd down then Shields has failed himself as a man. He think he Deion, but he ain't Deion. He is so much more talented than Bush especially in regards to speed and instinct which are the most important raw materials used to make a cornerback. If he could play with some fire and dedication he'll be as good as he already thinks he is. He needs to understand that above average starting cornerbacks get paid alot of money and go out and make some child support money this year. Maybe he'll even get to buy himself something nice.
If Shields doesn't play well out there we are screwed this year. Woodson is too slow, Hayward is too young and probably too slow, Bush is stiff and can't play the ball in the air, I don't know about House or Ross, but I don't have high hopes. Safety might be a shit show. But if Barnett can stop drifting he's a good player. All I know is when I'm hoping that an UDFA from Vanderbilt can save us it's not good.

Overall I think that we'll see a defense that is evolving throughout the year. We'll know a lot more when we get to see the preseason games, but I think with Perry learning on the job we'll see us playing a hybrid 4-3 that trys to morph into a 3-4 by the end of the year. We may see them play the other guys on early downs too. Neal and Hargrove will essentially be our hole cards to be played in case of injury. If one of those guys flashes they may cut someone to keep them. I think against teams with slower tight ends(not Vernon Davis or Jimmy Graham) we may see Woodson on the bench in order to give better run support. Having said that they may play him at safety in those situations because really he's better than Charlie Peprah. Overall I see us as not having that much of a different philosophy on 3rd down, but actually trying to play a more fundamental 3-4 on early downs this year.

[BobDobbs]

And that is why it was one of the worst defenses in 2009 and 2010. Oh wait, no it was considered to be very very good. My bad...

You know Wist gets some hell on this board mostly because of the apocalyptic brimstone smoke wafting off of his posts. But really since Capers got here we haven't been a convincingly great defense. In 2009 we had great stats but QBs like Favre, Rothlisberger, and Warner ripped us. And not in a well they're good so they're gonna get there's kind of way. More like an anal bleeding kind of way.
Then in 2010 a bunch of guys had career years(Tramon, Shields, Peprah, Hawk) Woodson played out of his head, Collins was a pro bowler, Bishop had a coming out party, and even Zombo and Walden looked like they could rush the passer. It could be the coaching, but until they can replicate those performances that 2010 season could be an aberration. By last year everyone was shredding us through the air. The fact is that Ted and Dom have yet to prove that they can really field a winning defense. This year should go a long way to proving it one way or another.

I don't believe that TT has ignored the defense. I mean if Harrell and Neal came through and Bulaga, Newhouse/Sherrod flamed out we'd be screaming about how badly TT fucks up his oline assessments and is endangering Arod's carreer. I do believe that he hired an offensive coach, drafted a first round QB and then proceeded to draft a receiving threat high in multiple drafts because he felt that he wanted the passing game to be THE strength of the team. That's been accomplished and now we try to be set to have a shot every year for awhile. Pretty fun to be a Packer fan these days.

[Bossman641]

You know Wist gets some hell on this board mostly because of the apocalyptic brimstone smoke wafting off of his posts. But really since Capers got here we haven't been a convincingly great defense. In 2009 we had great stats but QBs like Favre, Rothlisberger, and Warner ripped us. And not in a well they're good so they're gonna get there's kind of way. More like an anal bleeding kind of way.
Then in 2010 a bunch of guys had career years(Tramon, Shields, Peprah, Hawk) Woodson played out of his head, Collins was a pro bowler, Bishop had a coming out party, and even Zombo and Walden looked like they could rush the passer. It could be the coaching, but until they can replicate those performances that 2010 season could be an aberration. By last year everyone was shredding us through the air. The fact is that Ted and Dom have yet to prove that they can really field a winning defense. This year should go a long way to proving it one way or another.

I don't believe that TT has ignored the defense. I mean if Harrell and Neal came through and Bulaga, Newhouse/Sherrod flamed out we'd be screaming about how badly TT fucks up his oline assessments and is endangering Arod's carreer. I do believe that he hired an offensive coach, drafted a first round QB and then proceeded to draft a receiving threat high in multiple drafts because he felt that he wanted the passing game to be THE strength of the team. That's been accomplished and now we try to be set to have a shot every year for awhile. Pretty fun to be a Packer fan these days.

I think what annoys people is that all these young guys did play well and look like they had potential in 2010, and then Wist bitches that TT was an idiot and should have seen the 2011 dropoff coming by loading up on defense in last year's draft.

[RashanGary]

BobDobbs knows his football.

My guess is Hayward is more ready than bob thinks, but shit, that post was about as complete as a couple hundred word post can get.

[sharpe1027]

Then in 2010 a bunch of guys had career years(Tramon, Shields, Peprah, Hawk) Woodson played out of his head, Collins was a pro bowler, Bishop had a coming out party, and even Zombo and Walden looked like they could rush the passer. It could be the coaching, but until they can replicate those performances that 2010 season could be an aberration. By last year everyone was shredding us through the air. The fact is that Ted and Dom have yet to prove that they can really field a winning defense. This year should go a long way to proving it one way or another.


Saying that the defense was only good because players had great years is sort of a circular argument. How can you have an outstanding defense performance without players playing outstanding? :)

I said this way back when Capers was first hired, he has a track record of immediate improvements in the defense followed by a dip in performance. It will be interesting to see if he can reverse the trend this year.

[KYPack]

BobDobbs knows his football.

My guess is Hayward is more ready than bob thinks, but shit, that post was about as complete as a couple hundred word post can get.

Yeah.

The 'ol Sub-Genius was spot on, except the anal rape comment.

[Joemailman]

Saying that the defense was only good because players had great years is sort of a circular argument. How can you have an outstanding defense performance without players playing outstanding? :)

I said this way back when Capers was first hired, he has a track record of immediate improvements in the defense followed by a dip in performance. It will be interesting to see if he can reverse the trend this year.

I had the sense early on last year that teams were very prepared for what the Packers were going to throw at them defensively. Woodson's blitzes in particular didn't seem to be as effective as in 2010. Now, some of the problems (personnel) were beyond his control. He will need to show however, that he is as adept at making off-season adjustments as his opponents were last year.

[sharpe1027]

I had the sense early on last year that teams were very prepared for what the Packers were going to throw at them defensively. Woodson's blitzes in particular didn't seem to be as effective as in 2010. Now, some of the problems (personnel) were beyond his control. He will need to show however, that he is as adept at making off-season adjustments as his opponents were last year.

Good point. In the end, individual players need to win the battles. A scheme can only do some much.

[pbmax]

Several QBs said the Packers weren't particularly complicated to figure out last year, this comment was made a couple of times late in the year. I think at least after Carolina game, Capers felt hamstrung to make pass rush changes due to issues in the backend.

[Deputy Nutz]

There has been a lot of speculation about the moving parts of the Packer defense what with all the new toys they've added and a bunch of discussion on what this year will look like. I'm going to give my speculation right here for how I see it going down. The Packers are a 3-4 base defense but they spend nearly 3/4 of snaps playing something else. For the last three seasons including Woodson's defensive player of the year season and the superbowl season that has primarily been a 2-4 defense which looks like this:
http://sinfl.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/pack1.jpg

Why were the Packers so successful with this formation? Well because they actually run multiple versions. Turn's out when the Packers want to stop the run they are among the best in the NFL. The 2-4 actually works on that principle--the Packers are so good against the run that Dom invites offenses to try it. It works for a couple of reasons but mainly Charles Woodson. Good schemes put players in a position to be successful and this scheme is built to make Woodson a star by inventing a position for him. Schematically he counts as an extra DB, but in reality he's as good as a LB when playing near the line. Against the run our 2-4 can be much like a 4-3, if you imagine both DE's standing up and being called OLB's and Woodson being an OLB but being called a CB. Really Dom took the Packers' biggest strength, stopping the run, and used it to create a well rounded defense by putting run stuffing players in a pass stopping formation. The perfect Dom Capers three and out goes like this:

1st and 10: The Packers bring out their 2-4 with Pickett and Raji as the down lineman. The offense sees the formation, audibles to a run and gains 6 yards.

2nd and 4: The Packers now bring out their 3-4, sending Sam Shields to the sideline and replace him with CJ Wilson. The offense just ran for an easy 6 yards, they're going to try it again but are now stuffed for a 1 yard gain.

3rd and 3: This is a passing down and distance so the Packers go back to the 2-4, this time with Raji and Wynn as the down lineman. Tramon and Sam move up to the line to press. Pressure and coverage yield an incomplete pass. Offense punts.

So why did the defense suck last year? That 3rd down scenario stopped happening. Tramon had a shoulder injury and was no longer effective in press coverage--so bad even that they stopped asking him to try. The interior pass rush was diminished. But part of it was the offense was just that the league started to catch on, and that daring teams to run was no longer effective when that team is down by 24.

The Peyton Manning Colts are an example of a team with a potent offense that it built its defense to sell out against the pass. Their defensive line is small and fast, their coverage is a smothering tampa-2 shell. They sold out vs the pass a little too hard though where teams would and could run if for no other reason than to shorten the game, keep the ball out of Peyton's hands and give them a better chance at an upset.

This draft makes me think the Packers are about to make another change and field a defense that is less balanced but more suitable for playing with the lead. We're going to sell out against the pass. We drafted, a pure pass-rusher in Perry, we drafted a pure 1-gap style DT in Daniels, we got a LB who excels on 3rd down, and a corner who excels with his back to the basket which is a perfect skill set for those non-aggressive smothering styles of defense. I think what we'll be looking a lot more Colts-like but it sure looks like we've now got the personnel to both stuff the run or play with the lead. Early in games we probably won't look that different, we'll dare teams to run effectively stop that and build a lead. The difference is that when team's are forced to pass into the teeth of our defense, we'll have some serious upgrades. Here's a 2012 perfect 3-and-out:

1st and 10: The Packers bring out the 2-4, Bush replaces Shields, Pickett and Worthy/Raji/Muir will be the two down linemen. In other words our best 2-gap players will maul and control the guards, and hopefully draw a double team. Perry will be playing in place of Walden on the right side. We'll dare the defense to run and protect against the big play. Since this really won't change, and this isn't where the packers were desperate for improvement.

2nd and 4: The Packers have a new look for 2nd and 4. The Packers put Perry with his hand down outside the LT and make him responsible for just the C-gap, lined up next to him is Worthy/Daniels who responsible for just the B-gap, Raji lines up over the center and plays 2-gap, Pickett lines up over the RT and plays 2-gap, Clay lines up outside the TE and drops into coverage, blitzes, whatever. This is the 4-3 hybrid some of you have been describing recently as being piloted by the Patriots of late. Essentially this is a 4-3 to one side of the field and a 3-4 to the other side. It fits the Packers current personnel arguably better than our own traditional 3-4 now as we have exactly 2 dominant 2-gap players, Worthy who is at his best shooting a gap and locating the football, and Perry who can put his hand down and go or get outside and contain. The Packers can shift into and out of this at any time to get dream scenarios... like Clay Isolated on a TE, Raji isolated on the Center.

3rd and 3: The Pack gets Sam Shields back on the field for a 2-4. Raji/Worthy/Daniels/Wynn will all get opportunities, keeping all of them on a pitch count and preventing everyone from wearing down. Clay and Nick pin their ears back from a 2 point stance. Woodson will be moved around more to Safety and ILB in order to get Hayward on the field covering the slot. Those two are such a ball-hawking presence in the slot that it should lead to another season on excessive turnovers. I think the shelves have been sufficiently restocked to have this package be a strength once again. Once Woodson is no longer the play-making monster of this defense, the Packers will have the versatility of 1 and 2 gap specialists to mold it around someone else but in this position we've created for him it would't surprise me if that's later rather than sooner.

When it comes to defense, there is only so many ways to skin a cat. The last time I checked teams are still only allowed 11 defenders on the field. You can call it a 2-4 nickel defense or you can call it a 4-2 nickel defense. It all comes down to personnel. Dom Capers hasn't reinvented the wheel. In The case of the Packer, their scheme includes two outside linebackers instead of 2 defensive ends. If a team is estimated to run the ball on passing downs a certain precent, then Capers can adjust by adding run stuffing personnel in certain spots.
What Capers does well is that he uses schemes based in the abilities of his personnel that he has available. Once you put something on film, offenses will adjust to the defenses packages and prepare for them. It still comes down to beating the man in front of you, and for coaches to stay one step ahead of offenses when they call their blitz and coverage packages.

[pbmax]

Time to bring back the Grits Blitz defense.

www.profootballresearchers.org/Coffin_Corner/20-06-777.pdf

http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/slides/photos/000/230/834/glanville_display_image.jpg?1274283139


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVvQkogGajc

[3irty1]

This is an awesome thread. I think that what Dom is going to do with the Defense is the biggest question of the preseason. He's been really willing to bend, tweak, and torque the D to fit his personnel and the movement of the league. I think one thing we need to be careful of is assuming that the D is going to go a certain way based on the draft. If three of these guys turn into starters down the road that's a good draft right? So how much are these guys going to contribute this year? We'll see.

It's obvious we need more pressure, especially from ROLB an interior DL. So we drafted to fill that. I think big question is what happens to Woodson. Can he play outside anymore? I don't think so, not consistently. I think he comes on as a slot corner and may play safety in the "base". But, the main reason that we moved to playing so much nickel was to get Woodson closer to the ball. I feel like playing him at safety runs counter to that. I may be wrong, but I think we'll see a little less of Woodson this year. We'll see tons of 3 receiver sets so its not like he'll disappear.

They definitely prefer to play the OLBs in a two point stance. The design is to have any LB be able to cover or blitz. That's how we'll be most effective. If we start to play a hybrid with Perry it's only because he can't make the transition, especially in year one. From my deep study of ten minutes of Youtube, he plays a little gentle. But he's got speed, long arms, a feel for the strip and if he can just rush on obvious passing downs then our defense is better.

I can't figure out what happens on the DL I think they want to play a solid three man line. Do we have it? Not unless someone steps up.IGreen played well in run D, but we need someone more dynamic. I am concerned about our run defense, particularly short yardage. I do think that between Worthy, Daniels, Hargrove, and Neal one of those guys is going to be an effective 3rd down pass rusher next to Raji. My guy is Daniels. He's got evil dwarf strength. He's a malevolent midget that's gonna molliwop some suckas. At least I hope so.

I wish I knew what they are going to do in the LB corps. Hawk is a liability in pass coverage. And that means that he gets beaten, but also that we can't blitz Bishop as much and he's a way better blitzer. But if he becomes a situational player then we need to put the helmet on Bishop. I think the biggest obstacle is that he makes men love him. Playoff captain, big contract and you never hear anything but praise from up high. I don't know what it is maybe he smells really good.

Honestly if we see Bush playing on 1st and 2nd down then Shields has failed himself as a man. He think he Deion, but he ain't Deion. He is so much more talented than Bush especially in regards to speed and instinct which are the most important raw materials used to make a cornerback. If he could play with some fire and dedication he'll be as good as he already thinks he is. He needs to understand that above average starting cornerbacks get paid alot of money and go out and make some child support money this year. Maybe he'll even get to buy himself something nice.
If Shields doesn't play well out there we are screwed this year. Woodson is too slow, Hayward is too young and probably too slow, Bush is stiff and can't play the ball in the air, I don't know about House or Ross, but I don't have high hopes. Safety might be a shit show. But if Barnett can stop drifting he's a good player. All I know is when I'm hoping that an UDFA from Vanderbilt can save us it's not good.

Overall I think that we'll see a defense that is evolving throughout the year. We'll know a lot more when we get to see the preseason games, but I think with Perry learning on the job we'll see us playing a hybrid 4-3 that trys to morph into a 3-4 by the end of the year. We may see them play the other guys on early downs too. Neal and Hargrove will essentially be our hole cards to be played in case of injury. If one of those guys flashes they may cut someone to keep them. I think against teams with slower tight ends(not Vernon Davis or Jimmy Graham) we may see Woodson on the bench in order to give better run support. Having said that they may play him at safety in those situations because really he's better than Charlie Peprah. Overall I see us as not having that much of a different philosophy on 3rd down, but actually trying to play a more fundamental 3-4 on early downs this year.

I feel you on Daniels. That's a game that you'd think would translate perfectly to the NFL. He's my bet to lead the interior linemen in sacks. A 6 or 7 sack year wouldn't surprise me even in very limited PT. The thing about him is that he is masterful with his angles in the open field. Once he gets loose he looks impossible to juke, not only does he always get there, he does it with such efficiency that he'll get there squarely. An odd observation but that's not that easy to do when you're running full speed at a QB who already has their feet planted. Cullen Jenkins was awfully disruptive too but how many times would get get to the QB and somehow not get a sack? Daniels has that part down and its going to lead to sacks.

As far as the lineman I think we'll see some really diverse groups, including a 1-gap version of the "okie" where Raji can sit. I'm not worried about the run defense as long as Pickett is on the team.

With the linebackers, both Brad Jones and the rookie Manning have some value as ILB on 3rd down and it wouldn't shock me to see them steal some snaps there like Chillar did while he was around. Both can cover and both can blitz. Perry seems to make things predictable if he gets a job in the base D. I'm sure they'll make him look good in coverage with simple assignments when he has to do it but the Nick Perry that showed up to the combine sure didn't look like the 3-4 OLB that everyone was predicting he'd be during the NCAA season. 4.66 shuttle is what you'd expect from a DT. I'd sure feel better about him if he went off the roids for a while and got to a playing weight of 255. Maybe all the bulking up he did for the combine cost him all of his agility.

As for as base type defenses I think we'll get smaller and faster before we get bigger. I think some of those 3-4 downs will turn into 2-4 downs and 2-4 downs will turn into dime defenses. The Packers from last season made every QB look like a pro bowler, the recipe is going to be to pass, pass, pass. All of our upgrades were in pass coverage, and pass rushing.

[pbmax]

An odd observation but that's not that easy to do when you're running full speed at a QB who already has their feet planted. Cullen Jenkins was awfully disruptive too but how many times would get get to the QB and somehow not get a sack? Daniels has that part down and its going to lead to sacks.

That is a disadvantage of height. Jenkins played tall in his pass rush. Its a trait that serves better on the outside.