Drew Brees Going to Get Paid A Whole Lotta Cash

[pbmax]

Stephen Burbank, special master, decides on Franchise Tag ruling in Brees favor, which ups his potential 2013 salary by another $4 million. Which means he has one more point in his favor in negotiations.

Might be looking at $40 million guaranteed over first two years of deal minimum or the Saints would need to turn him loose to FA next year.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/03/brees-ruling-potentially-throws-a-wrench-into-negotiations/

I wonder if the NFL (or NFLPA) can change special masters like arbitrators? If so, Burbank might get the Shyman Das treatment.

[Guiness]

I don't think it changes things all that much. It's the money for next year, not this year. For what he's asking, they could still franchise him the next two years, not lay out a whole lot more money than he's asking, and not have to worry about a 36yr old QB with 3 years left on his contract. He's looking in the neighbourhood of $20mil/year, which is what he'll make if they tag him twice.

How do others feel about this negotiation? I tend to lean towards thinking Brees is being greedy. The cap hasn't moved much the past few years, but he's expecting his salary to keep climbing the way salaries have in the past. I think he's going to hamstring the team if he gets what he wants.

[pbmax]

With a $4 mil increase in the tag for 2013, it puts his two year compensation at over $40 million guaranteed. That, I think, is unprecedented. Both Manning and Brady got over $20 mil in averages, but a portion of that calculation included dummy money for Brady and Manning didn't have that number guaranteed over the first two years without committing to far more years at a Colts friendlier number.

The guarantee, I would argue, makes it a big deal. Being tagged makes it tougher, since he will need to be healthy next offseason to get the 2nd year, but its the exact opposite of padded contracts like Haynesworth's deal.

Not sure about a hamstrung team. That was supposed to happen to Manning but he still got to two Super Bowls. Brady had a higher cap number at some point and no one thought twice about it (since he had won 3 SBs already).

[gbgary]

he must be demanding a totally unrealistic amount for their cap. guess they'll just have to cut the payroll somehow. that should make him popular in the locker room.

[pbmax]

he must be demanding a totally unrealistic amount for their cap. guess they'll just have to cut the payroll somehow. that should make him popular in the locker room.

Not necessarily. He's older, been seriously hurt and the Chargers were previously arguing they deserved a discount because they signed him after injury.

Add to that trying to match contracts with Manning/Brady with a new and not increasing CBA. Easily understood. He wants top dollar and the Saints are trying to whittle that down. Benson looks like a doofus with the umbrella, but he is no dummy.

[smuggler]

The Saints do not have cap space to frontload a contract for Brees. That's the problem with their negotiations. They need him to play for around $25 million for the first two years combined and then backload the rest, but his camp, for obvious reasons, is not cool with that.

In order to do it with bonuses, the Saints need enough years on the contract to spread it out reasonably, but they won't give him a contract longer than 4 years...

In short, this will probably drag out into the preseason. He'll have to sign the tender at that point and play for $15.5 million

[Guiness]

With a $4 mil increase in the tag for 2013, it puts his two year compensation at over $40 million guaranteed. That, I think, is unprecedented. Both Manning and Brady got over $20 mil in averages, but a portion of that calculation included dummy money for Brady and Manning didn't have that number guaranteed over the first two years without committing to far more years at a Colts friendlier number.

The guarantee, I would argue, makes it a big deal. Being tagged makes it tougher, since he will need to be healthy next offseason to get the 2nd year, but its the exact opposite of padded contracts like Haynesworth's deal.

Not sure about a hamstrung team. That was supposed to happen to Manning but he still got to two Super Bowls. Brady had a higher cap number at some point and no one thought twice about it (since he had won 3 SBs already).

Ok, going to look at those Manning and Brady deals. I remember they had cap numbers around the $20mil, but did they actually end up counting that much?

Ok, looking at Brady's deal, it averages $18mil/year.

Manning's Colts contract probably was over $20mil against the cap...they didn't seem too upset about getting rid of him, maybe not just because of the doubt with his injury, but they realized the contract was unsustainable when the cap didn't climb the way it had been doing so. His current contract with Denver is a 4yr/$96mil contract, but could end up being 1yr/$18mil. I think one of two things has to happen for him to collect more than that from the Broncos - he has to renegotiate or the cap takes an unexpected jump.

[pbmax]

Brady's deal started slow as I recall and ratcheted up in cap hit. Toward the end of his deal, he was above Manning's cap number.

But, as in all cases, the true measure is the upfront and guaranteed money. And, if nothing else, Brees has another arrow in Tom Condon's quiver* with the additional $4 mil in Year 2.

* So to speak.

[Guiness]

Brady's deal started slow as I recall and ratcheted up in cap hit. Toward the end of his deal, he was above Manning's cap number.

But, as in all cases, the true measure is the upfront and guaranteed money. And, if nothing else, Brees has another arrow in Tom Condon's quiver* with the additional $4 mil in Year 2.

* So to speak.

Ya, I think it does, and it got worse when he restructured this spring. They converted his salary and roster bonus to a singing bonus, pushing some money from 2012 to 2013 and 4. Helps now, but not so good next year.

Still, I don't see how Brees can expect to get more money than he or Manning got when teams have no more money now than they did 2 years ago.

[pbmax]

If the Saints are amenable to forking over something close to Brees' cash demands early in the contract, the normal avenues are available for them to delay the cap hit to later in the contract. There isn't as much room as some expected in 2014, but it will be going up eventually. While the cap is lower now than in 2009, its not lower than it was when Manning and Brady signed their big deals, if my memory is correct about the years involved.

[Tony Oday]

well this teams window is closed so let the guy go.

[pbmax]

well this teams window is closed so let the guy go.

It is strange that with all the other negativity, the Saints are letting this linger. But its possible Condon and Brees are playing hardball. Even Thompson got snowballed by Grant during the Summer of Favre.

[Guiness]

If the Saints are amenable to forking over something close to Brees' cash demands early in the contract, the normal avenues are available for them to delay the cap hit to later in the contract. There isn't as much room as some expected in 2014, but it will be going up eventually. While the cap is lower now than in 2009, its not lower than it was when Manning and Brady signed their big deals, if my memory is correct about the years involved.

Manning signed this year, of course, so the same money is available, and it averages under $20million. His Indi contract, although ridiculously front loaded ($61.8 million in the first 2 years is what I'm seeing???) still averages under 20/year.

Brady signed his contract in 2010...the uncapped year.

I'm sure it's possible for a team to succeed while carrying these monster contracts, but it's hard to see how. It puts much more emphasis on drafting well/lucky than developing veteran talent. Football is a business and you're going to lose that veteran talent when someone else can offer them an extra $500K/year because they don't have 15%+ of their cap tied up in one player.

Patler, oh Patler, where are you? Seems like you should be chiming in on this thread!

[pbmax]

I don't think Manning's new Bronco contract is a good comparable since he did not play last year and obviously has questions about his physical status. His terminated contract with the Colts was obviously designed to terminate early, so it might not be much use either. Though $28 million not to play has certainly come up in the discussions.

Brady signed in 2010 but his deal (its not clear cut after a restructure for 2012) was, at a minimum, 3 years 48.5 million guaranteed. His restructure in 2012 got him another 10 million in bonus. If that bonus was guaranteed, his three year take could be north of 58 million, for a three year value of $19.33 per year. There are two years after that. If the contract guarantees his restructure bonuses over the last two years, its less likely he would be released as it would be a big cap hit. But he could force a renegotiation.

Brees is younger than both. I think getting above $20 million per year is doable. Whether its wise, harder to say. This is probably the same debate they have at the meetings.

EDIT: Brady's restructure was to a signing bonus prorated over the last 3 years of the deal. So its cap prohibitive to cut him until the last year. In 2013, he will earn a roughly $14.5 million (I already counted the new signing bonus above). So its a four year deal at about $17 mil per. If my numbers are close (and I assume the bulk of all bonuses are paid), maybe it will be a stretch.

[Guiness]

From my cursory glance at P. Manning's contract, I thought it was designed to go the distance. He was getting over 20 the first two years, and the contract averaged 18, so the last 3 years should've been relatively cheap. Not sure though, I can't even find out just what he got in year 1. Not sure what a 'pro rated bonus' is, and I've seen that the signing bonus was 16, and in other places 20. Here's one of the articles I found that lays it out well:
http://www.stampedeblue.com/2012/2/12/2792012/peyton-manning-andrew-luck-and-the-salary-cap
but it contradicts some of the info here
http://contractsalary.blogspot.ca/2012/03/peyton-manning-indianapolis-colts.html

[smuggler]

The Saints have $16.7 million in cap space this season (14.5 of which is already slotted for Brees based on the Saints' application of the franchise tag). In 2013 they have $12.9 million available as of now.

Brees wants $20 mil per season. He wants as many years of that as the Saints will give him. I don't think he would accept less than 4.

YEAR-BASE-BONUS
2012-$3.0m-$11.5m
2013-$1.0m-$11.5m
2014-$18.0m-$11.5m
2015-$20.0m-$11.5m

4 year Total: $88.0 million // $22.0 million per year

The problem here is that the Saints are so strapped for cash in the next two seasons that they really have to backload the contract's base salary segment. (Keep in mind this deal is already $46million guaranteed, which I believe would be close to a record, and that's a very high number considering it's only four years. In case you were wondering, teams cannot unevenly distribute the pro-rated salary cap number from a signing bonus.) In a 4 year deal, even if they lower his 2013 base salary to $1mil, they can't give him a signing bonus larger than $46 million. And this is academic because if they did that, they would not have enough cap space, as of today, to field a complete 53 man roster in 2013.

The Saints can't offer Brees more than a 4 year contract because their window closes in about 1-2 years (and remember this season is basically already a wash), and Brees is expected to be "done" in about 3 years, as he approaches his 37th birthday, anyway.

Financially, it might make the most sense for the Saints to *not* sign Brees long term, but franchise him for 2012 @14.5mil and then let him walk in 2013 (they do not have cap room to franchise him @22million next season, barring cuts)

[Guiness]

Well broken down Smuggler. You make a pretty valid argument for them to not offer him a long term deal.
I'd guess it's more a PR decision than an on field one.
Given all this, you have to wonder why they even want him this at franchise pay this year if they aren't going to retain him next, given that, as you said, the season is a wash.

[smuggler]

They would be glad to sign him for 4 yrs, but the cost could be pretty prohibitive. Another team that's up against the cap a bit is the Eagles, who have less than $4million in cap space in 2014.

[pbmax]

Isn't the franchise tender for QB $16.3 million in 2012?

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/05/22/brees-saints-playing-franchise-tender-chicken/

Last reasonable summation of the parties position I can find.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/06/05/gap-between-saints-brees-smaller-than-reported/

[smuggler]

It was 14.5 when we franchised Flynn, but I just took that number and added their cap space which is currently $2.2 million for 2012. If the tender offer to Brees was $16.3, then they'd have 18.5mil total to work with this season instead of $16.7, which helps a bit.

[pbmax]

Just saw in two places (PFT and ESPN) that Peytons new deal averages $20 mil per year. Are they rounding or is that the true average?

PFT has a story that Bud Adams was willing to pay Peyton $25 mil per to get him.

Brees might break $20mil/yr even if it takes until next year.

[Pugger]

I thought I heard last night on BSPN that if NO and Brees don't have a new contract signed before the week is out he will NOT sign the tender and will hold out of camp. More fun days in the Big Easy.

[pbmax]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8037165/nfl-why-drew-brees-new-deal
Andrew Brandt wrote this and it provides the relevant details about comparable contracts. He expects a signing before the July 16th deadline for:


Deadlines spur action, and the deadline in this case, due to tag requirements, is July 16. I expect the deal to be done between July 10-15 with a $20 million APY, between $50 million and $52 million guaranteed and $60 million to $62 million over the first three years.

He thinks they are stuck between $19 (NO) and $20 (Condon/Brees) mil per year. However, that seems small enough that there would wiggle room on guaranteed money or money in first three years to help bridge the gap. So I would hazard a guess that they are stuck on two of the points, not just average per year.

[pbmax]

I thought I heard last night on BSPN that if NO and Brees don't have a new contract signed before the week is out he will NOT sign the tender and will hold out of camp. More fun days in the Big Easy.

Yep.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8153671/drew-brees-new-orleans-saints-skip-training-camp-contract-sources-say

[smuggler]

If Brandt's numbers are correct, the Saints will be in salary cap hell for the next 3 years or so.

[Freak Out]

40 million in year one...wow.

[Guiness]

40 million in year one...wow.

Here are some of the early details.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/13/brees-gets-37-million-to-sign/

Looks like a 3-yr, $60 million deal, with some flexibility to the team.



By 2015, when the new TV deals from 2014 hit the cap, Brees cap number will be $26.4 million.

So if the TV money jump isn't big enough, he restructures or is released. There are sizeable guarantees that his early in the league year, so if they decide to let him go at any time, it will be well before FA starts. A rough calculation ($37m signing bonus divided by 5, the result multiplied by 2) shows that the Saints would take about a $15m hit against the cap to release him that year. The contract would average $20.3m over the three years if that happened.

[gbgary]

I hope a-rod doesn't hold us up like that.

[easy cheesy]

40 million in year one...wow.

That'll buy a lotta ass, Hurricanes ala Pat O'Briens, PoBoy's and Beignets at Cafe DuMonde... Good Times...

[smuggler]

He gets $40 million this year. Then he gets another $15 million roster bonus next year, and there's no possible way for them to cut him before he gets it, mathematically. Therefore, it's at least 55 million guaranteed. They are officially in cap hell for at least 2 years. I expect they'll probably cut Vilma now.

[Tony Oday]

Wow what a bad move by the Saints.

[Freak Out]

Wow what a bad move by the Saints.

Get ready then.....Rodgers is going to get MORE than Brees. Great QBs are worth the big money these days.

[MJZiggy]

Get ready then.....Rodgers is going to get MORE than Brees. Great QBs are worth the big money these days.

I'd bet he doesn't. He's worth it, but I bet he doesn't hold the team hostage for it.

[Freak Out]

Brees didnt hold anyone hostage.

[pbmax]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/13/brees-gets-37-million-to-sign/


The $40 million paid in 2012 is fully guaranteed. For now, $20 million beyond 2012 is guaranteed for injury only. Next year, on the third day of the waiver period (typically, the third day after the Super Bowl), $15 million of the injury guarantee becomes fully guaranteed. The extra $5 million remains guaranteed for injury only.

In 2015, again on the third day of the waiver period, more than half of his $19 million base salary becomes fully guaranteed. Ditto for 2016; on the third day of the waiver period, more than half of the $20 million base salary becomes fully guaranteed.

3 years $61 million, most of it carrying a guarantee of some sort. So Condon got the average over $20 mil for 3 years and the $40/60 guarantee (40 is fully guaranteed now, 15 will fully guarantee next winter, $5 is guaranteed for injury only) will likely be a record as well.

The Saints kept it a 3 year deal so they aren't beholden to an aging QB who can force an ugly divorce in March or July with a cash versus cut standoff. The Saints can terminate the deal with reasonable cap effects in either of the last two years shortly after the Super Bowl.

Brees got the cash. The Saints got the length of contract they wanted. Cap number this year is $10.4 million. In 2013 its $17.4 million, 2014: $18.4 million, in 2015: $26.4 million, and in 2016: $27.4 million. A release might hurt a little in 2015 as they would need to clear approx $22 million in acceleration, but it would be essentially a wash. Not sure how the cap treats the injury guarantee $5 million bonus. Also unlear how the $15 million bonus gets treated after it guarantees.

[pbmax]

The Packers can do this, though I doubt they would have his cap number be as low as $10 mil in an early year. Rodgers will get similar guarantees but the term will be longer, so his overall deal will be more lucrative. To do a 5 year deal with ARod now would give him another bite at the apple at age 34.

[Tony Oday]

Brees is 33 so whatever you think I think they overpayed him by a lot. He held a gun to a beat down franchise and won so good for him bit really the Saints are done.

[pbmax]

I refuse to feel sorry for a successful business full of competent professionals that had to negotiate a contract with a popular figure. Would the Saints really have been better off if their position ($19 million dollar average) had prevailed? The Saints have received tremendous benefit not only from Brees on field play but also his standing in the community.

I think they did well considering he was the best healthy QB negotiating a deal this year and had a direct comparison in Manning's deal to work from. The cap numbers are manageable and they can bail before Brees is too old, he will be 36 when they can exercise their option to terminate the contract.

[smuggler]

Here's more on the Saints cap and Brees' contract

1st year-10.4 (7.4 in bonus)+3 salary:: $8 million in cap space (this will go up because base salaries of suspended players don't count against the cap)
2nd year 17.4 (7.4 bonus)+ 10 salary:: -$6 million in cap space (43 players on the books)
3rd year 18.4 (7.4 Bonus)+ 11 Salary:: $19 million in cap space (19 players on the books)
4th year 26.4 (7.4 bonus)+ 19 salary
5th year 27.4 (7.4 bonus)+ 20 Salary

Going back to the Eagles, their situation:

2012: $16mil in cap space
2013: -$11million in cap space
2014: $3million in cap space

I believe there is a good chance of the cap increasing for the 2015 season.

All-in-all, I think this is a decent deal for the Saints, because it allows them a window to compete for the Super Bowl (2013-2014) and then they can cope with the ramifications later.

[Guiness]

Here's more on the Saints cap and Brees' contract

2nd year 17.4 (7.4 bonus)+ 10 salary:: -$6 million in cap space (43 players on the books)


So really, they're in serious cap trouble that quickly. They need to clear $6m + enough money to sign 8 more players. If all of those players were rookies earning minimum NFL compensation, that's still another $3.2m.

Ok, questions about some of this contract language that seems a little new to me. What does 'guaranteed for injury' mean? I think it means the player still gets that part of the salary even if he is injured and cut? Does the money still count against the team's cap?

Guaranteed for skill would mean that if a player gets cut while still healthy (presumably because he gets beat out in TC) he would still get paid?

[pbmax]

I think it means the player still gets that part of the salary even if he is injured and cut? Does the money still count against the team's cap?

Guaranteed for skill would mean that if a player gets cut while still healthy (presumably because he gets beat out in TC) he would still get paid?

You are right and it does count as cap space if he is injured. If cut while healthy (and able to pass physical and theoretically sign with another team) then it would neither count or be paid. Guaranteed for skill AND injury is simply true guaranteed money.

[Upnorth]

I like his contract in that it lowers the capabilities of NO, who are a high caliber team. I also like the timing of the Rodgers extension that Ted got done. When they renegotiate in 2014 I expect Rodgers to take up a big chunk of space, but the next year should see a big bump in the cap, so his impact cap wise will be quickly reduced, unlike Bree's who is hurting the depth on his team with such a huge contract.

[Patler]

Brees' contract alone won't hurt the Saints that much. Favre's cap hit was just under $10 million back when the cap was barely $70 million. With better control on rookie salaries, there is more to spend on vets anyway. They may have to make some adjustments with others, but no more so than any team that has a topflight QB.

Most teams would gladly take the cap issues in exchange for one of the best QBs in the league.

[Upnorth]

Brees' contract alone won't hurt the Saints that much. Favre's cap hit was just under $10 million back when the cap was barely $70 million. With better control on rookie salaries, there is more to spend on vets anyway. They may have to make some adjustments with others, but no more so than any team that has a topflight QB.

Most teams would gladly take the cap issues in exchange for one of the best QBs in the league.

So Favre's was about 14% of the cap, Bree's takes up about 16.5%. I am not saying he is not worth that, but I do think it will limit the SAints. I think Rodgers will get that (and more) but they are projecting the cap to jump into the 140 to 150 range, making the increase a little more managable. That was the point of my post.

[Patler]

So Favre's was about 14% of the cap, Bree's takes up about 16.5%. I am not saying he is not worth that, but I do think it will limit the SAints. I think Rodgers will get that (and more) but they are projecting the cap to jump into the 140 to 150 range, making the increase a little more managable. That was the point of my post.

...and rookies "share" declined beginning last year. Besides, the Saints first selection this year was what, third round? Their rookie pool will be tiny. Making up the 2.5% shouldn't be that difficult. All teams with big money QBs have to make adjustments, and the Packers will have to, too. If the cap goes up significantly, QB salaries are likely to go up to match.

[pbmax]

I will be very curious what the cap will look like in 2014 and 2015. Everyone initially expected an explosion, but Kraft and others say it will be much more gradual that increases in the past. I wonder if its complex enough that teams will miscalculate.

[smuggler]

2012 saw a bump of only $225,000 to the cap

2013-2014 are not expected to see a big bump

even if 2015 sees a 10 million dollar bump, it would probably put the cap around $135m

For some reason, the Saints, Eagles, Redskins, etc all planned on a huge increase in the cap. I guess we'll see if they're right.