Smidgeon
07-25-2012, 02:11 PM
Based on the raw data reported by McGinn in the JSO:
Player Receptions Yards TDs Drops Targets Snaps
Jennings 324 5092 37 26 531 3187
Driver 253 3340 22 30 392 2835
Nelson 193 2867 24 19 275 1864
Jones 155 2238 21 28 254 1802
All data includes playoffs for the last four years EXCEPT snap count.
I broke down the data to Per Reception, Per Target, and Per Snap categories.
Observations:
Across the board as the #1 and #2 receivers, Nelson or Jennings had the best rates in all categories except for one: TDs per reception. James Jones was clearly the best here with 14% of his receptions being for TDs. Driver had 9%, Jennings 11%, and Nelson were 12%
Per Reception, almost all of us know that Jennings' yards per reception was almost a yard better than Nelson, over a yard better than Jones, and over two yards better than Driver. Bear in mind this data is for four years. Not just the last one where Driver seemed to tail off.
As far as drops go... I mean, I like Jones. I think he's a good receiver. But he's got to hang onto the ball. In every slicing, he was worst by a wide margin. Per target, he dropped 11% of the balls thrown to him compared to 5% for Jennings, 7% for Nelson, and 8% for Driver. In drops per snap and drops per reception, he's just as far behind (1.6% per snap to Driver's 1.1% and 18% per reception to Driver's 12%).
As far as per target production, Jordy Nelson was handily the winner. He had almost a yard more per target than Jennings, more TDs per target than Jones, only slightly worse than Jennings in drops, and a reception percentage almost 10% above Jennings (70% to Jennings' and Jones' 61% and Driver's 65%).
One interesting thing: I combined drops and receptions and compared the total to per targets to get a "catchable ball" rate. Jennings was the lowest with 34% of the balls thrown to him not being ones he could have caught (I'm assuming either because of the QB or because of the defender). Nelson was the best with 23%, and both Driver and Jones had 28%. Basically, I'd guess that teams only have one corner good enough to slow down a receiver, and that corner's on Jennings. Nelson's showing himself able to win those one-on-ones, and Driver and Jones still have a 3 out of 4 chance to have a realistic shot to catch any ball thrown their way.
Going to a player view:
Jennings is on the field the most and has the yards, drop rate and targets to prove it. But oddly enough, he ranks low on the TDs scale beating only Driver in TD rates.
Driver had the second most snaps, but it was hard to see why. His yards and TDs sliced any way was the worst and excepting receptions per target, was only saved by Jones' abysmal drop rate from being the worst in every category.
Nelson had the third most snaps and his stats showed why he's the number two and could be the number one on several teams. His per target stats are ridiculously good (10.4 yards per target??? Every time Rodgers throws to him, he averages a first down! -- every eleven times is a TD). He also has more receptions and TDs per snap than anyone else. Just having him on the field is good for the team.
As for Jones. Well, I've already mentioned his bad (drops) and his good (TDs per reception). Other than that, he's behind two very productive receivers in Jennings and Driver and ahead of one that's faded badly in production over the last several years. It doesn't mean he's bad. Just that comparisons are hard because he isn't one of the great ones above him, but he isn't one of the more poorly performing ones either.
And all of this is without mentioning Cobb who doesn't have the data to compare.
I hope you enjoyed this exercise. It's always fun to look at this stuff.
Player Receptions Yards TDs Drops Targets Snaps
Jennings 324 5092 37 26 531 3187
Driver 253 3340 22 30 392 2835
Nelson 193 2867 24 19 275 1864
Jones 155 2238 21 28 254 1802
All data includes playoffs for the last four years EXCEPT snap count.
I broke down the data to Per Reception, Per Target, and Per Snap categories.
Observations:
Across the board as the #1 and #2 receivers, Nelson or Jennings had the best rates in all categories except for one: TDs per reception. James Jones was clearly the best here with 14% of his receptions being for TDs. Driver had 9%, Jennings 11%, and Nelson were 12%
Per Reception, almost all of us know that Jennings' yards per reception was almost a yard better than Nelson, over a yard better than Jones, and over two yards better than Driver. Bear in mind this data is for four years. Not just the last one where Driver seemed to tail off.
As far as drops go... I mean, I like Jones. I think he's a good receiver. But he's got to hang onto the ball. In every slicing, he was worst by a wide margin. Per target, he dropped 11% of the balls thrown to him compared to 5% for Jennings, 7% for Nelson, and 8% for Driver. In drops per snap and drops per reception, he's just as far behind (1.6% per snap to Driver's 1.1% and 18% per reception to Driver's 12%).
As far as per target production, Jordy Nelson was handily the winner. He had almost a yard more per target than Jennings, more TDs per target than Jones, only slightly worse than Jennings in drops, and a reception percentage almost 10% above Jennings (70% to Jennings' and Jones' 61% and Driver's 65%).
One interesting thing: I combined drops and receptions and compared the total to per targets to get a "catchable ball" rate. Jennings was the lowest with 34% of the balls thrown to him not being ones he could have caught (I'm assuming either because of the QB or because of the defender). Nelson was the best with 23%, and both Driver and Jones had 28%. Basically, I'd guess that teams only have one corner good enough to slow down a receiver, and that corner's on Jennings. Nelson's showing himself able to win those one-on-ones, and Driver and Jones still have a 3 out of 4 chance to have a realistic shot to catch any ball thrown their way.
Going to a player view:
Jennings is on the field the most and has the yards, drop rate and targets to prove it. But oddly enough, he ranks low on the TDs scale beating only Driver in TD rates.
Driver had the second most snaps, but it was hard to see why. His yards and TDs sliced any way was the worst and excepting receptions per target, was only saved by Jones' abysmal drop rate from being the worst in every category.
Nelson had the third most snaps and his stats showed why he's the number two and could be the number one on several teams. His per target stats are ridiculously good (10.4 yards per target??? Every time Rodgers throws to him, he averages a first down! -- every eleven times is a TD). He also has more receptions and TDs per snap than anyone else. Just having him on the field is good for the team.
As for Jones. Well, I've already mentioned his bad (drops) and his good (TDs per reception). Other than that, he's behind two very productive receivers in Jennings and Driver and ahead of one that's faded badly in production over the last several years. It doesn't mean he's bad. Just that comparisons are hard because he isn't one of the great ones above him, but he isn't one of the more poorly performing ones either.
And all of this is without mentioning Cobb who doesn't have the data to compare.
I hope you enjoyed this exercise. It's always fun to look at this stuff.