McGinn: Packers recession may be ahead

[RashanGary]

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/a-packers-recession-may-be-ahead-u96lk0k-168562956.html



Doubt it. This team is built to last far longer than the 2 or 3 year window from the Wolf era. As tough decisions get made on the players we can and can't afford, a new wave of young talent is ushered in.

[BobDobbs]

Jesus, nice armpit hair photo.

He's talking about this year and he brings up a few good points. The biggest thing that I'd argue with is his claim that the pass rush hasn't shown any clear signs that its improved. I think that it's looked much better and I think our DL and LB group are improved. He's right that Bishop is going to be a hit and that we had too many turnovers preseason.

10-6 playing against the NFC West and AFC South plus Minnesota twice? Seems low.

[pbmax]

I agree with the pipe. There have been several signs of pressure far more promising than anything last year. Now 3 of those sources are rookies, so there is a bit of uncertainty there. But it also means that contributions likely can come from different sources at different stages of the season.

Losing Bishop hurts, but if Lattimore can get healthy, there are some options there with someone who can find the ball beyond Smith. If Neal, Merling or Wilson can do something other than be a traffic cone, even better on the DL.

The only place I truly worry about is Left Tackle, where outside of a complete turnaround for health and training by Sherrod, the current option looks middling at best and the backups far worse.

[Patler]

Did McGinn make the earth-shattering discovery that a teams that loses 2 games or less one year is likely to lose more the next year?
What research!
What analysis!
Truely incredible!

As for the rest of it, he has simply identified a fact with the Packers that is true for every team in the league. The team has areas of apparent weakness and/or lack of depth. The same was true last year and the year before. It will be true next year too, and the year after.

In comparing this team to the Packers of the late '90s and later, he overlooks or fails to identify some key differences:
- more discipline at QB with a similar ability to make plays.
- a possibly ascending defense.
- a steady stream of incoming young players that contribute.

The last of the three I listed above may be the most important. With a steady stream of young players needing to make their marks in the league, looking for their first championships, the team remains hungry and does not become complacent. Wolf did not do a good job of that his last couple years, and Sherman didn't give himself a chance to by trading away draft picks and bringing in so few rookies. Besides, TT just seems better at the draft than either Wolf or Sherman. He keeps the team young and hungry while managing the salary cap effective with a constant influx of young players.

[sharpe1027]

I agree with McGinn, they probably will lose more than one game during the regular season. I am OK with that.

[denverYooper]

McGinn seemed to think that the Packers offense will regress but that the defense will remain the same. In reality, both units will *likely* move toward the mean. Among other things, it looks like Matthews is actually healthy this year and if he stays so, will be a DPOY-caliber player entering his prime.

One thing I felt about Rodgers's "sloppy" play in the preseason was that he seemed to be going after the other teams' top CBs in the exhibition games pretty often. The announcers seemed shocked that he went after Haden and Hall but it seemed like he was using that time to test his ability to fit throws in against those guys.

[Upnorth]

My fear on O is the line. Until Sherrod gets back we are thin, and that is before the ball is snapped for real. Our passing game has just as much potential as last year, but it is unrealistic for Rodgers to duplicate a 122 pr and there should be some regression to the mean.
On the other hand our D has gain potential from a pass rush perspective which should offset some of our db weakness.
If Perry is better than average to good at pressure CMIII will be a threat again, and Raji should have a bit more rest with our added DL depth and talent.
Mcginn is good at stirring the pot, its his 'thing' and I hope some of our players try to make him eat his words.

[rbaloha1]

Record is meaningless -- its about making the playoffs.

Disagree with recession analysis -- the Packers are in a bull market as long as Rodgers, TT and MM remain.

[Zool]

Huh, weird that he would expect a regression in overall record from a 15-1 season. This is some Nostradamus type shit here.

[Little Whiskey]

Huh, weird that he would expect a regression in overall record from a 15-1 season. This is some Nostradamus type shit here.

I wonder if he wrote the same thing about the patriots after they went 16-0 and lost in the superbowl.

[gbgary]

we just came out of a dip in form/quality with the end of the bf years (other than his fluke last year that came out of nowhere). ted won't let us get top heavy with big contracts for old players that aren't producing. this team will stay one of the youngest for several years to come.

[ThunderDan]

we just came out of a dip in form/quality with the end of the bf years (other than his fluke last year that came out of nowhere). ted won't let us get top heavy with big contracts for old players that aren't producing. this team will stay one of the youngest for several years to come.

Totally agree.

TT will determine what players we are going to pay and who is going to be released. Just in the last two years we have passed on Colledge and Wells. TT will retain the Superstars and build a supporting cast around them to succeed.

The real problem with the 2005 and 2006 is look at our drafts before that. The 3-6 year pros that are supposed to be the cogs of the team didn't exist. I think it was Barnett who was one of two drafted players that really contributed.

[wist43]

I think we're better this year - but will surely win fewer games than last year.

We have to be better, b/c nothing can be worse than that piece of shit defense they threw out on the field every week last year. The front seven was so woeful they may just as well have sent 11 DB's out on the field. I think TT did a great job in the offseason in improving the front seven - Dom can certainly screw that up with his ballarina alignments though. Even with Dom's desire to play flag football, we can't help but be better on defense.

[CaliforniaCheez]

We do not live in a perfect world.

"Why, those rookies have no experience!!!" "Injuries are going to happen."

Well, there are going to be some rookie mistakes along the way. There are also going to be rookie pleasant surprises.

A young team is going to be better at the end of the season. The coaching staff knows what to do.

All the wringing of hands and worrying McGinn causes people at home to do will not help or hurt the team.

Winning a Super Bowl is not easy. That's why it is celebrated so much.

[Packers4Glory]

the offense should be about as good as it was.

Defense should play more like a hybrid of the 2010 and 2011 teams. They likely won't be as good at getting to the QB as the super bowl team was, but should be much better than last yr. I also don't think they will give up nearly as much passing yards w/ a healthy Williams. The one thing both defenses did an exceptional job at was getting turnovers and I'd expect that to continue.

If they can get the defense to keep improving as the newbs gain experience working towards January, they'll probably be a middle of the road defense that's playing like a top 10 defense come playoff time assuming no major injuries.

[mraynrand]

I see them not being able to replace Collins effectively yet this year. I see Woodson dropping off dramatically. I see Hawk as even more horrible than last year - that could end up being good, once they finally give up on him and get someone competent in pass coverage in there, and the loss of Bishop will be tough to overcome. D-line play and corner play overall should be somewhat better, so the Defense should be improved maybe to middle of the pack.

Can the offense maintain what it had last year? Probably not. Expect some slippage due to rocky lineplay at center and LT, and slippage at WR with Driver slowing and Jennings thinking of his contract. Will Finley emerge or tease and continue his phantom blocking?

But a slight reduction in offense and a slight improvement on defense should leave them about the same. Take away some of those close wins, and you get 11 or 12 wins.

Of course, if Outhouse and Saturday allow Rodgers to get killed, then the whole thing will disintegrate.