Replacement Referees and Home Field Advantage: It’s Been Almost Eight Points a Game Through Two Week

[denverYooper]

Or "Lies, damned lies, and Statistics"

http://www.thebiglead.com/index.php/2012/09/19/replacement-referees-and-home-field-advantage-its-been-almost-eight-points-through-two-weeks/

I thought this was interesting but overblown. The nugget about penalties, linked from another site (http://www.footballperspective.com/nyt-fifth-down-post-week-2/)was interesting:


Last week, I hinted that there may be a bias by the officials in favor of the home team, as these less-experienced referees may be more likely to side with the voices of the crowd. That hypotheses certainly wasn’t disproved this week, as 14 of the 16 home teams won, the first time 14 home teams have won in a week since the league expanded to 32 teams. So far this season, there have been 231 penalties against visiting teams and only 188 penalties against the hosts. That ratio — road teams having to deal with 23% more penalties — is far out of line with historical data, which informs us that road teams had 7% more penalties enforced against them than home teams from 2000 to 2011.

BUT

He then goes on to claim that the replacement refs are giving a home team advantage of 8 points throughout the first two weeks. His main reason for that claim:


Here is the against the spread records and median points above or below the spread for the home team:

2012: 19-13 against the spread, +5.3 points over spread for home team
2011: 16-15-1 against the spread, +1.5 points over spread for home team
2010: 19-11-2 against the spread, +3.8 points over spread for home team
2009: 12-20 against the spread, -4.8 points under spread for home team
Combining all three previous years, we get a home team ATS record of 47-46-3, with a median result of a push. So basically, Vegas has been dead on with variation from year over year. Maybe this year is just another case of random variation, though I think there are legitimate reasons to think that it is more than that.

So far, in order to get an even betting result of point spread wins by home teams and road teams, Vegas would have had to add a whopping 5.3 points to each spread to the home team’s line. They already build in somewhere around 2.5 to 3 points for home field in matchups, meaning Vegas would have had to add about 8 points to home field to even out the replacement referee results.

My issues with this analysis are a couple:
1.) It's a little weird that he takes the mean of yearly medians but it gets him to where he wants to go: a mean of 0 (0.17) before this year.
2.) The variability of just that small, questionably constructed, data set is huge. The standard deviation is 4.45 which means that 5.3 points above the spread is not that crazy. Given his data, it would happen like 12.5% of the time. I mean, that's smallish but not significant in any statistical sense.

I read it a couple of times to see whether he was just saying that homefield advantage is 8 points currently or whether he was saying that the replacement refs were causing an 8 point homefield advantage. It's pretty clear to me that he's at least trying to imply to people that the latter is the case.

LIS, I think this is interesting and there is an effect but I think the article is pretty far off on the magnitude of that effect.

[Fritz]

Shit dude, that's some tight analysis on your part. Go you! I like it!=D

[Guiness]

I think it's very likely that the replacement refs could be influenced by a vocal home crowd. I saw an article which claimed Ray Lewis intimidated a referee into making a call.

How are you calculating std dev? Each week as a data point and the amount over/under the spread for each week as the difference from the mean?

I think it's a pretty significant value, and I'm sure Vegas has some Actuarial Science guys pouring over it right now!

[pbmax]

My concern is that refs are so slow to make a call (and it seems they all are, even the groups that seem under control) and throw such late flags, that it is subjecting them to more pressure than if they simply decided earlier. If you are hemming and hawing about a call, the screams in your ear are not going to help and might provoke a specific action.

[Harlan Huckleby]

I don't give a damn if they get all the calls right. They blow only a few more than the experienced refs. The problem is that the games are slow and boring.


One factor that I think is overlooked is that the refs are going through a learning curve, and they will get better as season goes along. So the bargaining position is all with the owners.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I tend to agree with Harlan. The old refs blew a lot of calls, but these new refs slow the game down so much. ESPN posted something where it showed the new refs are calling the almost identical number of overall penalties, almost identical number of pass interferences (even though Percy Harvin complained about an obvious offensive pass interference that was call on him), almost identical number of holdings, etc. And an almost identical number of plays have been overturned. I thought the refs were brutal in the first Packers game and decent in the second game. (They missed some holding calls, but the old refs had crews that would call games a certain way.) Similar thing in the preseason. Some of these crews are doing a pretty good job. Coming from somebody who has experience as an official (and was pretty good at the level he officiated), officials aren't like athletes. There are a limited number of people on earth who are good enough to play in the NFL. There are a lot of people who could officiate sports at a high level if they were willing to foresake more lucrative careers and had the time to concentrate on it. I would've continued officiating if the pay wasn't so shitty at the lower levels and the avenues to get to the top weren't so narrow. There are plenty of people capable of officiating at a high level. It isn't rocket surgery. I'd prefer the old refs, but the old refs aren't irreplaceable. However, these new guys need to get better in a hurry. If the old refs aren't back, I'm hoping these new guys get caught by playoff time.

[Guiness]

I tend to agree with Harlan. The old refs blew a lot of calls, but these new refs slow the game down so much. ESPN posted something where it showed the new refs are calling the almost identical number of overall penalties, almost identical number of pass interferences (even though Percy Harvin complained about an obvious offensive pass interference that was call on him), almost identical number of holdings, etc. And an almost identical number of plays have been overturned. I thought the refs were brutal in the first Packers game and decent in the second game. (They missed some holding calls, but the old refs had crews that would call games a certain way.) Similar thing in the preseason. Some of these crews are doing a pretty good job. Coming from somebody who has experience as an official (and was pretty good at the level he officiated), officials aren't like athletes. There are a limited number of people on earth who are good enough to play in the NFL. There are a lot of people who could officiate sports at a high level if they were willing to foresake more lucrative careers and had the time to concentrate on it. I would've continued officiating if the pay wasn't so shitty at the lower levels and the avenues to get to the top weren't so narrow. There are plenty of people capable of officiating at a high level. It isn't rocket surgery. I'd prefer the old refs, but the old refs aren't irreplaceable. However, these new guys need to get better in a hurry. If the old refs aren't back, I'm hoping these new guys get caught by playoff time.

Right on point there. It's mostly just a learning curve. Hockey linesmen are an exception to the thought everyone can do it though - you have to be fast to keep up with the play for offsides, and strong to get in the middle of fights. Referees get pudgy, but the linesmen are fit. Unfortunately, like other sports, the pay on the way up sucks, although it kept me in beer money in University.

[Joemailman]

I think we know why the NFL moved the 3:15 games to 3:25. The game is definitely getting slowed down. However, because the NFL reviews all scoring plays, and all turnover plays, the odds are against the outcome of a game obviously turning due to a bad call. The old refs need to make a deal and get back, because they don't have much leverage. Steve Young was right. Fans may complain about the replacement refs, but they won't stop watching or going to the games. As long as the money keeps pouring in, the owners don't really care that much who the refs are.

[pbmax]

I tend to agree with Harlan. The old refs blew a lot of calls, but these new refs slow the game down so much. ESPN posted something where it showed the new refs are calling the almost identical number of overall penalties, almost identical number of pass interferences (even though Percy Harvin complained about an obvious offensive pass interference that was call on him), almost identical number of holdings, etc. And an almost identical number of plays have been overturned. I thought the refs were brutal in the first Packers game and decent in the second game. (They missed some holding calls, but the old refs had crews that would call games a certain way.) Similar thing in the preseason. Some of these crews are doing a pretty good job. Coming from somebody who has experience as an official (and was pretty good at the level he officiated), officials aren't like athletes. There are a limited number of people on earth who are good enough to play in the NFL. There are a lot of people who could officiate sports at a high level if they were willing to foresake more lucrative careers and had the time to concentrate on it. I would've continued officiating if the pay wasn't so shitty at the lower levels and the avenues to get to the top weren't so narrow. There are plenty of people capable of officiating at a high level. It isn't rocket surgery. I'd prefer the old refs, but the old refs aren't irreplaceable. However, these new guys need to get better in a hurry. If the old refs aren't back, I'm hoping these new guys get caught by playoff time.

Not sure about identical calls. I read somewhere that Pass Interference was up but Illegal Contacts were down. The reasoning of a former ref was that most people can identify pass interference across levels of the sport. However, illegal contact in the NFL is far more restrictive on DBs and no one can know the ins and outs of it in two months.

But its possible we simply don't have enough data to be sure. Two games is a small sample with new refs.

I disagree with Harlan that they are in the same ballpark of blown calls. As in the Eagles-Ravens game, when they call a penalty, its often the wrong one and yardage is then off. Not to mention the 11 yard markoff on a 5 yard penalty they had.

The more troubling aspect is that the officials have not asserted themselves and players and coaches are taking advantage of them. Its very chippy out there and eventually its going to result in a fight and someone (quite possibly a ref) getting hurt. If I was a crew chief, I'd toss the first player who barked at one of the refs right away.

[mraynrand]

If I was a crew chief, I'd toss the first player who barked at one of the refs right away.

There goes Peyton Manning

[mraynrand]

I would just call penalties on everyone and let God sort it out.

[mraynrand]

Or "Lies, damned lies, and Statistics"

http://www.thebiglead.com/index.php/2012/09/19/replacement-referees-and-home-field-advantage-its-been-almost-eight-points-through-two-weeks/

I thought this was interesting but overblown. The nugget about penalties, linked from another site (http://www.footballperspective.com/nyt-fifth-down-post-week-2/)was interesting:



BUT

He then goes on to claim that the replacement refs are giving a home team advantage of 8 points throughout the first two weeks. His main reason for that claim:



My issues with this analysis are a couple:
1.) It's a little weird that he takes the mean of yearly medians but it gets him to where he wants to go: a mean of 0 (0.17) before this year.
2.) The variability of just that small, questionably constructed, data set is huge. The standard deviation is 4.45 which means that 5.3 points above the spread is not that crazy. Given his data, it would happen like 12.5% of the time. I mean, that's smallish but not significant in any statistical sense.

I read it a couple of times to see whether he was just saying that homefield advantage is 8 points currently or whether he was saying that the replacement refs were causing an 8 point homefield advantage. It's pretty clear to me that he's at least trying to imply to people that the latter is the case.

LIS, I think this is interesting and there is an effect but I think the article is pretty far off on the magnitude of that effect.

The p value on the ANOVA is greater than 0.5. Nothing to see here.

[pbmax]

There goes Peyton Manning

That would deliver two messages. One to the players about everyone being accountable. Two, the message the League office sends you about your termination.

[Harlan Huckleby]

It isn't rocket surgery.

True, but nothing really is.

[denverYooper]

I think it's very likely that the replacement refs could be influenced by a vocal home crowd. I saw an article which claimed Ray Lewis intimidated a referee into making a call.

How are you calculating std dev? Each week as a data point and the amount over/under the spread for each week as the difference from the mean?

I think it's a pretty significant value, and I'm sure Vegas has some Actuarial Science guys pouring over it right now!

For the purpose of commenting on the numbers he used, I calculated the std dev based on the median pts from spread data that he listed in the article. He used those numbers to base his argument that "over these last 3 years, the average (of the median points above spread) is basically flat. Which was true, but the numbers he used were flung about that mean pretty far. He apparently used the spread data from the goldline link he provided but when I clicked on it to find his base data, it just sent me to the front page of a betting site and I just didn't have time to find the base data. It would be more informative to dig around there to get the full game by game spreads and difference.

You're right though, there is probably something going on. Just not 8 points' worth. Gun to my head, I'd guess 1-2 pts.

[denverYooper]

The p value on the ANOVA is greater than 0.5. Nothing to see here.

Yeah, it's high. Did you run it or just make a good guess? I got 0.42 using "regular v replacement" as the treatment and points as the response from his numbers.

[ThunderDan]

I think we know why the NFL moved the 3:15 games to 3:25. The game is definitely getting slowed down. However, because the NFL reviews all scoring plays, and all turnover plays, the odds are against the outcome of a game obviously turning due to a bad call. The old refs need to make a deal and get back, because they don't have much leverage. Steve Young was right. Fans may complain about the replacement refs, but they won't stop watching or going to the games. As long as the money keeps pouring in, the owners don't really care that much who the refs are.

That's not true. In the Denver-ATL game a defensive holding was called on ATL. The refs marked off a 10 yard penalty.

On the next play Peyton thows a 20+ yard TD on an amazing catch that they called out of bounds but was overturned on replay. Denver had already used its 2 challenges because of previous calls and lost one. If it hadn't happened in the last 2 minutes of the half it wouldn't have been a TD.

Now back to the real story. The WR caught the ball 3 yards into the endzone and was knocked out of bounds. If the penalty on the previous play had been correctly enforced for 5 yards instead of 10 its 1st and goal on the 2 with 6 seconds left until half time.

The refs fuck up on enforcing the penalty completely changed the game.

[mraynrand]

Yeah, it's high. Did you run it or just make a good guess? I got 0.42 using "regular v replacement" as the treatment and points as the response from his numbers.

I just made a guess. Honestly, The 2009 number, and the few numbers pretty much convinced me that finding a trend wasn't going to happen. You're gonna need more data.

Anecdotally, I saw a couple of incidents where I was almost certain the official was being influenced, if not by the crowd, at least by the Coaches.
I suspect that the reason a lot of flags are coming out late though is a combination of uncertainty and a deliberate attempt to make sure they get the call right (as in, you don't have to throw the flag right away, think about the call, then throw it).

Theses officials are untrained/less trained - generally that's just exactly how they look. Uncertain people are more influenced by their surroundings.

[sharpe1027]

True, but nothing really is.

What about brain science?

[pbmax]

That's not true. In the Denver-ATL game a defensive holding was called on ATL. The refs marked off a 10 yard penalty.

On the next play Peyton thows a 20+ yard TD on an amazing catch that they called out of bounds but was overturned on replay. Denver had already used its 2 challenges because of previous calls and lost one. If it hadn't happened in the last 2 minutes of the half it wouldn't have been a TD.

Now back to the real story. The WR caught the ball 3 yards into the endzone and was knocked out of bounds. If the penalty on the previous play had been correctly enforced for 5 yards instead of 10 its 1st and goal on the 2 with 6 seconds left until half time.

The refs fuck up on enforcing the penalty completely changed the game.

Don't forget the fourth TO Seattle got. That was WHILE consulting with HeadPhone Ref and presumably Replay Ref, Replay Ref Supervisor, League Office Ref, Goodell and Judge Judy.

More is NOT better in a short period of time. Short being relative in the case of the replacement refs, something shy of an epoch.

That fourth TO got them another planned shot the endzone while in the red zone.

[RashanGary]

You know, I was going on my merry way, ignoring this bull shit.

The refs are all thrown in there with no experience. It's not like there is some head ref who can lead the group. It's pure chaos.


But now it's out of hand.

I hope they get better though. I'm pulling for them, just because it would suck to get thrown in that spot, where they're doing their best and getting torn apart for it.

[denverYooper]

I'm sure they'll get better throughout the season because they'll be putting in the work, and I wonder how long it will be before people don't complain about them any more than regular officials.

At some point the leverage that the regular refs (thought they) had is going to be totally gone.

[pbmax]

Well, this might be a tipping point. Goodell and the NFLRA might be costing some businessmen some money. Just the kind of arbitrators this disagreement needs:

http://deadspin.com/5944955/the-replacement-refs-are-now-affecting-vegas-betting-lines

[Fritz]

I find it humorous and ironic that we - me included - bitched and moaned so much the last few years about the Ed Hochulis of the world. And now we pine for him.

[Harlan Huckleby]

And now we pine for him.
http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/08Ru9on6Bncs9/340x.jpg

Ed Hochulis has got some guns, I'm sure you are not the only one pining for him, and there's nothing wrong with that.

I was radio slumming today at the Jim Rome show, and he made funny speculations about how pumped-up Ed Hoculis will be with all this time off to lift weights.

[denverYooper]

Not sure about identical calls. I read somewhere that Pass Interference was up but Illegal Contacts were down. The reasoning of a former ref was that most people can identify pass interference across levels of the sport. However, illegal contact in the NFL is far more restrictive on DBs and no one can know the ins and outs of it in two months.


I heard an interview with Chad Millman of ESPN the Magazine. He indicated that it looks like aggressive passing teams are gaining a bit of an advantage. I haven't seen that quantified anywhere yet but that would fit here.

[mraynrand]

I think the Packers should play all their games at home, except when they play the Giants.

[denverYooper]

Well, this might be a tipping point. Goodell and the NFLRA might be costing some businessmen some money. Just the kind of arbitrators this disagreement needs:

http://deadspin.com/5944955/the-replacement-refs-are-now-affecting-vegas-betting-lines

Although the article also states that the betting business is booming this year, probably because bettors feel like they can take advantage of the replacement refs. It doesn't say whether or not the sports books are losing money on the incoming bets... My gut tells me that, though it is more difficult for the bookmakers to set the lines, they are making more money than ever because a lot of people are overestimating the effect.

[mraynrand]

I find it humorous and ironic that we - me included - bitched and moaned so much the last few years about the Ed Hochulis of the world. And now we pine for him.

Speak for yourself, although, I do have to admit, he's kinda hunkalicious.

[Teamcheez1]

I heard an interview with Chad Millman of ESPN the Magazine. He indicated that it looks like aggressive passing teams are gaining a bit of an advantage. I haven't seen that quantified anywhere yet but that would fit here.

It doesn't seem to be helping us.

[denverYooper]

I think the Packers should play all their games at home, except when they play the Giants.

Or the 49ers. Because everyone knows that a finesse team like the Packers will get beat up by those rugged, physical teams in Lambeau.

[denverYooper]

It doesn't seem to be helping us.

Nope. Interestingly enough, with all of the talk about the record scoring going on this year so far the 2 original high flyers (GB and NE) have been fairly quiet.

[LegandofthePack15]

True, but nothing really is.

Rocket surgery is just a fancy term for alien anatomy, the scientific study of the morphology of the alien body.

[denverYooper]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/redskins/nfls-replacement-officials-adding-new-wrinkles-to-sports-bets-changing-vegas-casino-lines/2012/09/20/4eef6542-02f7-11e2-9132-f2750cd65f97_story.html


Casinos haven’t fully changed lines yet because there have been only two weeks of games and referees might adjust how they call games based on weekly feedback from the league. But oddsmaker Mike Colbert of Cantor Gaming says home teams will deserve an extra half-point in their favor if games are called all year the way they were officiated in Week 2.

Heh. As though a gambling official is going to reveal their scoring model. "Oh yeah, yeah, about 1/2 point per game if everything stays the same". I'd imagine they have already worked out some kind of decay rate to add to those models.


NFL teams generally get a 3-point edge in sports books just for playing at home. An extra half-point added to that would be the equivalent of a team having a superstar receiver or running back on the field or an opponent missing its star because of injury, gambling expert RJ Bell of Pregame.com said.

This brings me back to the original reason that I posted the "8 ppg" article: it was linked by AdvancedNflStats, who I find to have pretty decent models. I'm surprised that they didn't work out how to run their EPA (Expected Points Added) (http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/01/expected-points-ep-and-expected-points.html) analysis with the penalty information and compare it with previous years' data to see if the penalties seem to be adding any points. It's funny that they posted a link to a rather sloppy analysis instead of working up their model and providing something much more substantial.

[denverYooper]

Rocket surgery is just a fancy term for alien anatomy, the scientific study of the morphology of the alien body.

I thought it was a book about user interface design.

[mraynrand]

Damn it, Smithers! This isn't rocket science, it's brain surgery!
http://www.scottmckay.ca/storage/Picture%209.png?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1266457 924768

[denverYooper]

I'm sure they'll get better throughout the season because they'll be putting in the work, and I wonder how long it will be before people don't complain about them any more than regular officials.

At some point the leverage that the regular refs (thought they) had is going to be totally gone.

http://thesportseconomist.com/2012/09/21/the-replacements/


1. The locked-out refs hold a very weak bargaining position. Unlike the players, the refs possess no rare set of skills or endowments such as a 280 pound frame able to run a 4.7 40 yard dash. Yes, there are some specific skills, both individually and as a coordinated unit, that officials need in order to effectively manage an NFL game, and these skills take some time and training to attain to the level of the old refs. However, there are literally thousands if not millions of people capable of acquiring these skills in a relatively short time. At the end of the season, if the league were to stick with the replacements, will attendance or viewership figures be reduced any this season or future season? With replacement players, yes, with replacement officials, not likely. The old refs have to hope for some major, outcome-altering blunder near the end of a widely viewed game; that’s really the only leverage they have. Otherwise, at some point along the way, “replacement” refs slowly become simple “refs.”

[Guiness]

http://thesportseconomist.com/2012/09/21/the-replacements/

That sounds about right. Anyone remember the 'replacement air traffic controllers'? Didn't think so, it's a historical footnote that only Micheal Moore ever brings up :flm:

[ThunderDan]

http://deadspin.com/5944976/theyre-getting-worse-not-better-here-are-the-28-worst-replacement-official-mistakes-from-week-2

From deadspin, worst 28 calls from week 2.

[mraynrand]

That sounds about right. Anyone remember the 'replacement air traffic controllers'? Didn't think so, it's a historical footnote that only Micheal Moore ever brings up :flm:

My uncle doesn't remember the replacement ATCs, because they directed his plane into the side of a mountain.

[denverYooper]

Advanced NFL stats posted an analysis of HFA since 2000. It doesn't explicitly say but I'm assuming that he is just using (home pts - away pts) to get the HFA numbers.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012/09/home-field-advantage-is-not-out-of.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter


Since 2000 the standard deviation for weekly average HFA is 4.0 points, and the average is 2.4 points, which means week 2's 8.7 is not 2 standard deviations from the mean (p=0.40). Week 2 featured only the 15th largest HFA in the past 12+ years. The regular refs were on the field for the 14 weeks with larger HFAs.

[pbmax]

My uncle doesn't remember the replacement ATCs, because they directed his plane into the side of a mountain.

Many people fondly remember the old ATCs while they were drying their luggage after it was fished out of the Potomac.

[pbmax]

Advanced NFL stats posted an analysis of HFA since 2000. It doesn't explicitly say but I'm assuming that he is just using (home pts - away pts) to get the HFA numbers.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012/09/home-field-advantage-is-not-out-of.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Several sites including Football Outsiders and Shutdown Corner say that there have been two favorable weeks for the home teams while the others were somewhat unfriendly. Very mixed bag for that theory so far.

[Cheesehead Craig]

I can't wait for a personal foul penalty call from a replacement ref about a player "giving him the business".

[Joemailman]

Somehow, I can't help wondering what Cleft Crusty thinks about all this.

[mraynrand]

Somehow, I can't help wondering what Cleft Crusty thinks about all this.

What the hell happened to that guy?

[MadtownPacker]

I heard Cleft is at his local emergency room trying to get a Viagra hard-on subdued.

In the first game I wanted to gripe about the refs but reality is that the Packers got whupped up. After three weeks I cant say I dont notice the refs boo-boos but then again we would notice fuck ups the real refs would do. Really doesnt seemed that unbalanced to me and in the end the better teams appear to be winning the games.

[Harlan Huckleby]

The Packers came back and dominated the second half, they deserved to win.

I've changed my mind on replacement refs, they aren't able to do the job.

[MadtownPacker]

I heard Cleft is at his local emergency room trying to get a Viagra hard-on subdued.

In the first game I wanted to gripe about the refs but reality is that the Packers got whupped up. After three weeks I cant say I dont notice the refs boo-boos but then again we would notice fuck ups the real refs would do. Really doesnt seemed that unbalanced to me and in the end the better teams appear to be winning the games.
Fuck me!!! After I end those sorry MFers you bitches can end me!!!

Fuck!!!