CAP ABOUT TO BLOW UP SOON---WHO DO WE LOSE ??

[Bretsky]

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/packers-salary-space-about-to-get-tight-ho6uq85-170795046.html

Good Article. Predict who is NOT a Packer in three years ?

Captain Obvious (me) will start with Greg Jennings. I think we keep Raji, Matthews, Rogers, and the Marshmellow.

I am on the fence with the overhyped and underperforming Finley

My gut still tells me the dude is still going to be a star while my brain wonders if he has the mental make up to live up to his ability

[AtlPackFan]

I would say Jennings, BJ, Finley gone. Forgive my ignorance but who is Marshmellow man???

[pbmax]

Marshmellow is Newhouse.

I say no to Newhouse because Sherrod will have taken his job :) Seriously, I can't see paying Newhouse $8 mil annually, but perhaps he will make me a believer. As currently playing Burnett is not going to be expensive at safety.

Unless something really changes, I don't see Finley with another contract in GB and I could see Hawk not claim the last year of his deal. But Hawk could be influenced by Bishops health and so far the lack of a backup.

Pickett isn't going anywhere unless he gets banged up. Woodson has a hefty price but he is one of two proven pieces back there. Saturday could go just by virtue of a draft pick.

My list probably does not contain enough cash to help unless Sherrod returns to health and form.

[gbgary]

I would say Jennings, BJ, Finley gone. Forgive my ignorance but who is Marshmellow man???

jennings...yes, finley...probably, raji...not sure. tt may have learned a lesson with jenkins departure. let's hope raji's development makes it a veeeery hard decision.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

After this season - cut Woodson, Pickett, and Driver. Trade Finely. Sign Jennings, Matthews, and Rodgers. Sign BJ if the price is not to high. Unless Newhouse puts it all together, go with Sherrod.

We won the superbowl With Jennings, Nelson, Jones, Driver, and Quarless. We don't need Finely. Keep Jennings, Nelson, Jones, Cobb, DJ Williams, and Quarless. Would love to keep Woodson but not at the expense of Jennings, Matthews, and Raji. So bye.

Getting rid of Woodson, Pickett, Driver, and Finely would free up over 20 mil.

[RashanGary]

Jennings and Finley go. Woodsons number drops to 5M anyway. He's worth 5. Wood stays. Hawk, gone. They say it's 600,000 but it's really 6M per year after the first year he's cut. Pickett could get restructured.

Other than that, I think we keep just about everyone else we want. Ted will probably draft a star RB or WR in the next year or so anyway. it would be great to keep everyone, but luckily, we have a GM who keeps drafting top tier talent through the draft to replenish the ones we lose.

[RashanGary]

If the cap stays flat, Newhouse should not get 8M per year. That's top 8 OT numbers. Everyone and their brother knows he's not a top 8 tackle. I do think we keep him though. The more he plays, he does look like he's on path to be in the upper half of the league at LT.

About 3 LTs are taken in the first round every year. Over the last 8 years, that's 24 LT's taken in the first round. Then there are 2nd round LT's and a couple later round ones. Only about half of the upper OT prospects end up in that top 15 group, and most of the ones that are in the upper group, come in the higher parts of the 1st round, not the back end. The chances of Sherrod (just based on numbers) of being in that top 15 group are maybe 30-50%. Just the injury thing, I would put it closer to 30%. I do think Newhouse is well on path to be a top 15 LT. I think there are some physical limitations beyond that. I put Sherrods chances of passing Newhouse at 1 in 4. My money is on Marshmallow.

[Brandon494]

I'll tell you after the season, all depends on how guys play this season. If Finley ends up with 80 catches with 15 TDs I doubt TT will let him walk. Then again its Finley so he'll probably end up with 65 catches with 15 drops.

[Fritz]

If you get rid of Rodgers you can probably afford everyone else.

[Tony Oday]

Rodgers is getting old and really Harrell can take over by then.

[Patler]

For two years I have been warning what would happen starting as soon possibly as 2012, that when they finally got around to extending Rodgers, Matthews and one or two of the other expensive guys, some very good, young players would have to be allowed to leave. I have been routinely told that I was either foolish or a worry-wart, that TT had no history of and therefore wouldn't let good, young players leave; that there was always a way to sign everyone he wanted, a lot of old guys like Clifton, Woodson and Pickett were on their way out leaving plenty of cap space for everyone, and that the cap would sky-rocket by then anyway.

Reality can be a bitch, can't it? :smile:

TT has been preparing for this already. He didn't invest long term money in Jenkins or Wells, even though there weren't proven replacements on the roster for either. If he had had unlimited freedom, he would have kept both. No money there for Grant, either. Somewhat the same with Colledge, but I think mostly they were tired of his inconsistency.

This happens with every team that hits it big with a couple draft classes and a young top QB. Suddenly, there are quite a few guys wanting and deserving top contracts for their positions, and one who will be among the highest paid players in the league. They have to keep the essential few, try to sign a few cheaper than expected (he has with Sitton and Lang) and prepare to lose a few. The saving factor is that while drafting well caused the problem, continued drafting well will provide the solution, with talented, young, inexpensive players to replace the good ones you hated to lose.

[Patler]

So, who do they keep, and who is allowed to leave?

Rodgers and Matthews will be paid, unless one or the other simply hates it in GB and will do whatever is necessary to get out. I don't see that happening. Both will be paid well and eat up huge chuncks of the salary cap.

Pickett? - My guess is that he signs a very team-friendly deal whenever it is needed, and that he plays a few years at not much more than veteran minimums with decent performance/availability bonuses. He loves it in GB, and more importantly his wife does and even convinced him to sign there originally.

Jennings is as good as gone. What ever outside chance there was that the Packers would pay him is rapidly evaporating with his continued injury concerns. He will have to be virtually injury free and play every game from here on out for the Packers to even consider risking the cap space to sign him. It's not just the differential between what he costs now and what he will sign for. Even what he costs now might be better spent on one or two other players. Letting him leave makes available the cap space to sign Rodgers, or Matthews and someone else, etc.

Finley remains a quandary; but the arguments for "potential" are also fast disappearing. A player has potential only so long. The fact he is so young, having come out as a sophomore, extends the period for team patience, and is why the two-year contract made sense. But, as cap dollars get tight, he might not even be around for the second year of the deal. Sure, it will be a downgrade at the position, but the team may not have much of a choice. Hopefully, DJ Williams and/or Quarrless will pick up the slack.

Perhaps the more interesting question is this; can they afford to lose both Jennings and Finley?????

Raji has proven himself to be a very good player, but not a DT stud who dominates a game. He may be the surprise as the very talented guy looking for a second contract that doesn't get it from GB. Depends on what he thinks he is worth, and how well the likes of Worthy, Daniels, Neal and Merling play this year.

Unless and until Sherrod shows he can actually play left tackle, they have to keep Newhouse. Newhouse has proven that he can play it well enough to win with him. Sherrod has proven nothing. A gaping hole at LT can cause the entire offense to crumble. Its not a chance they can take intentionally.

[RashanGary]

Raji has proven himself to be a very good player, but not a DT stud who dominates a game. He may be the surprise as the very talented guy looking for a second contract that doesn't get it from GB. Depends on what he thinks he is worth, and how well the likes of Worthy, Daniels, Neal and Merling play this year.


I know Raji as a certain, I don't know what you call it, "sentimental skew" and I may be guilty of gobbling it up. I do think he's a dominant DT, but then again, his play last year, and his play against the run this year, say otherwise.

I've heard him make statements about how he's underrated because other DTs are let loose and he's not. I think there is some frustration in his voice about it, but that's just a gut feeling.



As far as loosing Jennings and Finley, as hard as it would be to do, I wonder about who will step up this year and who we'll take in the draft. If we lose Jennings, Finley and Driver. . . .



Nelson
Cobb
Jones
Boykin
??????

DJ Williams
Crabtree
Taylor



It's a big step down. Then again, we seem to be on the verge of taking a very big step up with ST's and with our defense. Also, there's not telling what the draft/internal growth may hold.




I guess the bottom line is that this team is about to go through a major change. . . . If we could round out a better running attack, I'd actually be pretty alright being a more balanced team (run, STs, defense, pass) More than anything, I'm hoping for either Green or a high draft choice at RB to come in and change our offense. I'm not as in love with the wide open approach as I used to be.

[denverYooper]

Finley remains a quandary; but the arguments for "potential" are also fast disappearing. A player has potential only so long. The fact he is so young, having come out as a sophomore, extends the period for team patience, and is why the two-year contract made sense. But, as cap dollars get tight, he might not even be around for the second year of the deal. Sure, it will be a downgrade at the position, but the team may not have much of a choice. Hopefully, DJ Williams and/or Quarrless will pick up the slack.


Finley will be easy, I think. Either he'll start to produce and they'll keep him or he won't and they'll let him go. His problem is 100% mental IMO. He's constantly worrying so much about dropping the ball that it becomes his reality. As much as he talks about how hard he works, and I believe that he does, he really worries about the perception of him being a dropper and it's eating him up atm.

The team seems to believe that too, because he has been heavily involved in the game plan with 16 targets, tied with Jordy Nelson.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Agreed Jennings is gone. Cobb and Jones really can make up for his production at much less of the price.

[Brandon494]

For two years I have been warning what would happen starting as soon possibly as 2012, that when they finally got around to extending Rodgers, Matthews and one or two of the other expensive guys, some very good, young players would have to be allowed to leave. I have been routinely told that I was either foolish or a worry-wart, that TT had no history of and therefore wouldn't let good, young players leave; that there was always a way to sign everyone he wanted, a lot of old guys like Clifton, Woodson and Pickett were on their way out leaving plenty of cap space for everyone, and that the cap would sky-rocket by then anyway.

Didn't you also say we would resign Wells over Finley? :oops:

At this point with Jennings durability concerns and 30 not really being young in the NFL I see him as the only player that we might let leave. Also McGinn is crazy if he thinks Marshall is getting 8M per.

[Patler]

Didn't you also say we would resign Wells over Finley? :oops:

At this point with Jennings durability concerns and 30 not really being young in the NFL I see him as the only player that we might let leave. Also McGinn is crazy if he thinks Marshall is getting 8M per.

I never said they would sign Wells regardless of the cost. I said he might get funny money from someone, and I mentioned several times that Wells seemed to have a grudge against the team and might want out, period, making him essentially unsignable. I said Wells might be the one they try to sign, and it seems they did make a long term offer to him, which he dismissed out of hand. He got what he wanted, a contract the Packers would have never paid, nor should they have.

If they could have signed one long term, yes, I think it should have been Wells, because they had no replacement and he had proven himself. In actuality, they signed neither one in typical manner.

I don't think anyone expected Finley would sign a two-year contract, which could even be just a one-year contract. That made sense for the team, I'm not sure it really did for Finley, but he did it. Good for the team. I'll bet they would have been happy to sign Wells the same way, because after all, that is basically what they signed Saturday to.

I can't imagine it costing $8 million to sign Newhouse either. He might be an adequate tackle at this time, that doesn't make him an $8 million tackle. He might be a candidate for a nice bonus, and decent money over 3 years, sort of like they did with Nelson (but for LT money). Give him a nice slug of money, he is earning it, with a chance to further prove himself over a short time to earn higher LT money.

[Packers4Glory]

3 yrs is a long time..hell 1 yr is a long time.

If Raji is healthy and playing at a high level still, you have to retain him. Finding good quality starters on the D line is not an easy task. IMO you draft them early, develop them, and then let them go once they are hitting their prime.

Rodgers and Mathews are obvious guys you have to bring back.

Newhouse shouldn't be overly expensive. A lot will depend on Sherrod.

Jennings is obviously gone. I just don't see a case to bring him back for what it will cost at a position where we are deep.

Finley is a guy I'd say is going to be gone, but right now he's not an upper tier TE because he can't stay consistent from play to play. As much as he pisses me off I'd like to keep him, but the TE position has been an ever evolving one, and guys like Finley are becoming more and more common. Look at Winslow. He got cut for pay reasons and was on the outside looking in after a pretty damn good season last yr in TB. He found a job because NE lost one if it's stud TE's because of injury. There might not be a huge market for Finley when his contract is up.

[RUnuts]

I think it's a little early to put the nail in Newhouse's coffin. He's extremely bright, very coachable and has a terrific attitude. I know he could be better but in my opinion for the short time he's been starting he's made significant strides.
I think about how I felt about Mike Wahl his first year. I'm going to go out on a limb and make a prediction that the likelihood of signing Newhouse is an absolute, definite, maybe.

[Tony Oday]

Keep Raji, CMIII and AR

Jennings and Finley are gone.

Woodson would be nice to keep.

[rbaloha1]

Jennings is going to be franchised.

Everyone gets paid.

Finley will become a superstar everyone expects -- its the pregnant pause that causing heartaches.

[cheesner]

Keep Raji, CMIII and AR

Jennings and Finley are gone.

Woodson would be nice to keep.
Woodson will be done soon. Maybe we can get him a nice number.

Jennings: We have too much depth there to pay him what he is worth.

We need to keep AR, Clay, and Raji (provided he plays more like week 2 and not week 1). Those 3 are the core. Everyone else is nice, but replaceable.

In 2 years there will be 3 or 4 other names on the list of players who it seems like we cannot live without. That's the TT way.